Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[brg444]

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20141020/pdf/42t0mqrygyzd74.pdf

I stand corrected. By that document, that company has mined ~13300 BTC to date, and is holding ~8500, so it has dumped only ~4800, or about 1/3.

EDIT: Actually they claim to have sold ~6200 on the table.  Whatever.

Vavilov told CoinDesk that it decided not to tap its bitcoin reserves as it remains bullish on the long-term value of bitcoin.

"We believe in the long-term perspective [the price of bitcoin] will grow and we decided to not to sell [our bitcoin] at such a low price," Vavilov added.

But they did sell more (up to 50% of mined amount) when the price was a bit higher.

http://www.coindesk.com/bitfury-raises-20-million-asic-development-mining-output/

Bitfury is not selling.

BitFury founder and CEO Valery Vavilov indicated that the new funding will allow the company to complete production of its 28nm ASIC chip without selling the reserve bitcoins it has mined from its three industrial-scale data centres.

Note that, for digitalBTC, "reserve bitcoins" means "the bitcoins that we did not sell yet". Does it mean the same for BitFury?

Terpin polled the crowd by asking how many sell a certain percentage of their bitcoins for fiat currencies like the dollar. One only miner raised their hand when Terpin asked if they sold 100% of their bitcoin for dollars, and about one-third of the crowd indicated that they don’t sell any of their generated bitcoins.

http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-mining-las-vegas-convention/

So 1 miner sold 100%, 1/3 of the miners sold 0%.  What about the other 2/3?

The folks at Hashers United conference were not selling

Without an official balance like that of digitalBTC, I don't know whether to trust these statements.  Obviously it is their interest to say that they believe that the price will go up, hence they are holding.  Anyway, like the folks at digitalBTC, they may be only hoping/waiting for the price to rise again to sell.

So the data seems to say that miners are selling at least a sizable fraction of their mined bitcoins.

Obviously it is in your best interest they are selling and that your interpretation of clear-cut counter-indicative comments and official releases is the correct one.

I don't know whether to trust these people or JorgeStolfi from bitcointalk.org.

Bottom line is you're wrong

In short, the answer is "no, there is no evidence that miners are holding".

[DeadCoin]

That guy is among the most knowledgeable and most sane members in here.

if he's happy with his fiat he can keep his fiat. But since fiat keeps failing since day 1, there is that little insanity-thing about keeping doing the same expecting a different result.

Fiat or no fiat, people are always the same. They always try to abuse things and have profit to the maximum. Just human nature, believing bitcoin is any different is insanity.

[NotLambchop]

However , true story :

Let me explain what the difference is:
Money is sent via Western Union when cash is needed immediately.  This money is not sent for stuff like online purchases, otherwise the sender could simply make the purchase and have it shipped to a different address.

Sending Bitcoin is currently extremely cheap, because the miners are subsidised by 10% yearly inflation, AKA "block rewards" (not TX fees).  As block rewards diminish to zero over time, the miners will be forced to rely on TX fees.
Today, Bitcoin is paying 10% of its market cap to maintain the network--that's how many coins are mined in a year.  Once the block rewards approach zero, the transaction fees would have to represent ~10% of Bitcoin's market cap to maintain today's network security.  Because, as Satoshi has pointed out, the cost of mining should approach the price of coins mined.

Imagine that?  Burning 10% of world's wealth YEARLY being paid in TX fees?  

But that's a tangent.  The problem is, after receiving your bitcoin, it still must be converted to cash you can actually spend locally

[janos666]

Weekend dump incoming. See you at 300 within 72 hours.

Did you pre-ordered it?

[redsn0w]

However , true story :

Let me explain what the difference is:
Money is sent via Western Union when cash is needed immediately.  This money is not sent for stuff like online purchases, otherwise the sender could simply make the purchase and have it shipped to a different address.

Sending Bitcoin is currently extremely cheap, because the miners are subsidised by 10% yearly inflation, AKA "block rewards" (not TX fees).  As block rewards diminish to zero over time, the miners will be forced to rely on TX fees.
Today, Bitcoin is paying 10% of its market cap to maintain the network--that's how many coins are mined in a year.  Once the block rewards approach zero, the transaction fees would have to represent ~10% of Bitcoin's market cap to maintain today's network security.  Because, as Satoshi has pointed out, the cost of mining should approach the price of coins mined.

Imagine that?  Burning 10% of world's wealth YEARLY being paid in TX fees?  

But that's a tangent.  The problem is, after receiving your bitcoin, it still must be converted to cash you can actually spend locally

amazing theory , but bitcoin is still better then "WU" or Am i wrong ?  the fees are extremely low (~0.03 $ ).

Are you agree or not ?

[JorgeStolfi]

Obviously it is in your best interest they are selling and that your interpretation of clear-cut counter-indicative comments and official releases is the correct one.

I have no interest either way, just want to understand what is going on.  Some here obviously have an interest in painting a bullish picture.

Bottom line is you're wrong

In short, the answer is "no, there is no evidence that miners are holding".

If you read back, I ASKED one poster whether there was evidence that miners are holding.  He replied with a statement of faith and no data.  That phrase above is my rephrasing of his reply.

[conspirosphere.tk]

Fiat or no fiat, people are always the same. They always try to abuse things and have profit to the maximum. Just human nature, believing bitcoin is any different is insanity.

profit-seeking is what makes the world go around. The troubles are just about the means used. Fiat is by force = bad by definition. Until crypto is voluntary is a good starting point.

[NotLambchop]

However , true story :

Let me explain what the difference is:
Money is sent via Western Union when cash is needed immediately.  This money is not sent for stuff like online purchases, otherwise the sender could simply make the purchase and have it shipped to a different address.

Sending Bitcoin is currently extremely cheap, because the miners are subsidised by 10% yearly inflation, AKA "block rewards" (not TX fees).  As block rewards diminish to zero over time, the miners will be forced to rely on TX fees.
Today, Bitcoin is paying 10% of its market cap to maintain the network--that's how many coins are mined in a year.  Once the block rewards approach zero, the transaction fees would have to represent ~10% of Bitcoin's market cap to maintain today's network security.  Because, as Satoshi has pointed out, the cost of mining should approach the price of coins mined.

Imagine that?  Burning 10% of world's wealth YEARLY being paid in TX fees?  

But that's a tangent.  The problem is, after receiving your bitcoin, it still must be converted to cash you can actually spend locally

amazing theory , but bitcoin is still better then "WU" or Am i wrong ?  the fees are extremely low (~0.03 $ ).

Are you agree or not ?

No.  Read the bold red text above.  You are [again] forcing me to use text effects to make you pay attention.

[redsn0w]

No.  Read the bold red text above.  You are [again] forcing me to use text effects to make you pay attention.

I don't enforce anyone , if you don't want to read me simple "ignore me" .


It is not necessary to convert BTC to cash , so you can use it easily without lose "another time and money" , please  be an adult person  not a troll .


Have a nice day ,


redsn0w

[NotLambchop]

No.  Read the bold red text above.  You are [again] forcing me to use text effects to make you pay attention.

I don't enforce anyone , if you don't want to read me simple "ignore me" .


It is not necessary to convert BTC to cash , so you can use it easily without lose "another time and money" , please  be an adult person  not a troll .


Have a nice day ,


redsn0w

^like talking to a ditch

[redsn0w]

No.  Read the bold red text above.  You are [again] forcing me to use text effects to make you pay attention.

I don't enforce anyone , if you don't want to read me simple "ignore me" .


It is not necessary to convert BTC to cash , so you can use it easily without lose "another time and money" , please  be an adult person  not a troll .


Have a nice day ,


redsn0w

^like talking to a ditch

So Am I wrong ?   I can't use btc directly ...    are you serious man or are you kidding me ?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[freakbits]

As long as the miners cant pay for electricity in bitcoin they will have to sell bitcoin for fiat, obviously.

[galdur]

However , true story :

Priceless  

[NotLambchop]

No.  Read the bold red text above.  You are [again] forcing me to use text effects to make you pay attention.

I don't enforce anyone , if you don't want to read me simple "ignore me" .


It is not necessary to convert BTC to cash , so you can use it easily without lose "another time and money" , please  be an adult person  not a troll .


Have a nice day ,


redsn0w

^like talking to a ditch

So Am I wrong ?   I can't use btc directly ...    are you serious man or are you kidding me ?

Yes, you are wrong.  Let me explain again:
People use Western Union in emergencies--like being stranded halfway across the country with no money for gas, that sort of thing.  The kind of emergencies in which Bitcoin would be of no use, since it can not be spent in in the podunks where these emergencies take place.  Gas stations don't take Bitcoin.

If you are talking about needing something which could be bought online, simply ask the person to put the purchase on his CC, and save bot of you the fee and the hassle.

[conspirosphere.tk]

However , true story :

http://imgur.com/uPgmVfu][IMG]https://i.imgur.com/uPgmVfu.png

Priceless  

It's not just about moving money. Mostly about keeping your money.

[NotLambchop]

^^sure



*You have lost more than 1/2 of your money if you have been holding for a year.  Way to go!

[DeadCoin]

Fiat or no fiat, people are always the same. They always try to abuse things and have profit to the maximum. Just human nature, believing bitcoin is any different is insanity.

profit-seeking is what makes the world go around. The troubles are just about the means used. Fiat is by force = bad by definition. Until crypto is voluntary is a good starting point.

Coercion and law is what gives fiat value. Maybe not moral, but surely gives more faith to average Joe than internet funny money like bitcoin scheme.

[galdur]

[JimboToronto]

However , true story :

Spot on. It seems some people here treat Bitcoin as if it were some kind of investment vehicle and forget its real purpose.

In the real world it represents fast and cheap money transfers.

Last week a student friend hit on me for a $100 loan to get through the weekend. She had tried her out-of-town mother but she used a different bank and they wanted to charge a $75 dollar fee to send $100 and it wouldn't have completed until Monday anyway.

As I lent her the $100, I pointed out that if her mother owned bitcoins, she could have had her send $100 worth to her phone, walked down the street and had $95 cash in her hand in less than an hour, after paying the 5% ATM fee.

This is the real world, not some theoretical speculation.