Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BitAddict]

The price has been stuck between the denial and fear phase for too long. I'm still waiting for desperation and fear..

This, my buys are in the $310-$320 range. Usually before a big climb there is a crazy crash right before. And if I miss it...meh, that's all good too.

Though we have been through so many different reasons why Bitcoin is going to fail and reasons why Bitcoin is going to the moon that I'm not sure what sort of news could do either.

I don't believe there will be any "news" that will spark a rally or crash. Except for the ETF. I'm not sure why this is put on hold but I'm sure they have their reasons. Anyway, long-term I'd say it's far more sane to keep your coins than to sell them. If you're a day-trader you may find yourself with good profits or huge loss within this situation, so move cautiously.

Well, while bitcoin adoptoin is growing fast, it still has several problems that need to be fixed until it can easily start going up:
- 94k bitcoin will be auctioned in the next months by US Marshalls.
- 30k extra bitcoins also auctioned by Australia soon.
- 200k recovered frozen bitcoins from MtGox could be returned to their owners at any time.
- Less bidders in the recently 50k auction, was also really bearish sign.
- Localbitcoin closing their services in Germany.
- Bitstamp running out of liquidity and with an extremely thin orderbook.
- Big bottleneck in the fiat entries. Won't be resolved until proper regulated bitcoin exchanges or ETFs hit the market.
- Finally, 2 month support was strongly broken yesterday night, just until Microsoft news stopped it.

And of course, miners and merchants will keep dumping their bitcoins 24/7 as always.

With all this big bear flags... I'm sorry but I can't be bullish about bitcoin price in the short/mid term. It is probably going to retest lower levels again.
Right now there is more downside potential than upside, unless an ETF hits the market.

[macsga]

Well, while bitcoin adoptoin is growing fast, it still has several problems that need to be fixed until it can easily start going up:
- 94k bitcoin will be auctioned in the next months by US Marshalls.
- 30k extra bitcoins also auctioned by Australia soon.
- 200k recovered frozen bitcoins from MtGox could be returned to their owners at any time.
- Less bidders in the recently 50k auction, was also really bearish sign.
- Localbitcoin closing their services in Germany.
- Bitstamp running out of liquidity and with an extremely thin orderbook.
- Big bottleneck in the fiat entries. Won't be resolved until proper regulated bitcoin exchanges or ETFs hit the market.
- Finally, 2 month support was strongly broken yesterday night, just until Microsoft news stopped it.

And of course, miners and merchants will keep dumping their bitcoins 24/7 as always.

With all this big bear flags... I'm sorry but I can't be bullish about bitcoin price in the short/mid term. It is probably going to retest lower levels again.
Right now there is more downside potential than upside, unless an ETF hits the market.

From the points above, I'd keep the 2 most important:
- 200k recovered frozen bitcoins from MtGox could be returned to their owners at any time.
- Big bottleneck in the fiat entries. Won't be resolved until proper regulated bitcoin exchanges or ETFs hit the market.

Both are very important aspects for a healthy way up. Now, if you want my opinion, retesting lower levels will only be caused as a ''flash crash'', the way it happened so many times before. But IMHO, it will take A LOT of coins to retest such levels at once, even though I don't rule it out as a possibility. If you check out the daily charts, there are two constant walls covering both up and down possibilities. We only see movement in case of someone from either side decides to make a bold move. Then a damped oscillation graph occurs and there's a slight movement towards the previous level.

TL;DR: Both of the above must happen for a proper CCMF. 

[BitAddict]

Well, while bitcoin adoptoin is growing fast, it still has several problems that need to be fixed until it can easily start going up:
- 94k bitcoin will be auctioned in the next months by US Marshalls.
- 30k extra bitcoins also auctioned by Australia soon.
- 200k recovered frozen bitcoins from MtGox could be returned to their owners at any time.
- Less bidders in the recently 50k auction, was also really bearish sign.
- Localbitcoin closing their services in Germany.
- Bitstamp running out of liquidity and with an extremely thin orderbook.
- Big bottleneck in the fiat entries. Won't be resolved until proper regulated bitcoin exchanges or ETFs hit the market.
- Finally, 2 month support was strongly broken yesterday night, just until Microsoft news stopped it.

And of course, miners and merchants will keep dumping their bitcoins 24/7 as always.

With all this big bear flags... I'm sorry but I can't be bullish about bitcoin price in the short/mid term. It is probably going to retest lower levels again.
Right now there is more downside potential than upside, unless an ETF hits the market.

From the points above, I'd keep the 2 most important:
- 200k recovered frozen bitcoins from MtGox could be returned to their owners at any time.
- Big bottleneck in the fiat entries. Won't be resolved until proper regulated bitcoin exchanges or ETFs hit the market.

Both are very important aspects for a healthy way up. Now, if you want my opinion, retesting lower levels will only be caused as a ''flash crash'', the way it happened so many times before. But IMHO, it will take A LOT of coins to retest such levels at once, even though I don't rule it out as a possibility. If you check out the daily charts, there are two constant walls covering both up and down possibilities. We only see movement in case of someone from either side decides to make a bold move. Then a damped oscillation graph occurs and there's a slight movement towards the previous level.

TL;DR: Both of the above must happen for a proper CCMF. 

I don't think restesting lower levels is going to happen really fast, it could take some months of slow bleeding until entering the final panic dumping with a flash crash.
Exactly as it started back in August, but slower and with smaller percentage down, as pump and dumps are slowing down.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dreamspark]

With all this big bear flags... I'm sorry but I can't be bullish about bitcoin price in the short/mid term. It is probably going to retest lower levels again.
Right now there is more downside potential than upside, unless an ETF hits the market.

I disagree that it has more downside than upside potential. I see a drop of $100 from here as a small chance of happening but $100 rise could happen at any point. However if your constantly watching charts and are ready to make a move when the market does then you can easily limit risks on both scenarios.

[Feri22]

What the fu*k is going on with you BTC? You need to go to the moon ASAP, i am tired of all these stupid bears and shit

[Totscha]

What the fu*k is going on with you BTC? You need to go to the moon ASAP, i am tired of all these stupid bears and shit

Deposit a dozen or so milllion $ on an exchange and start buying like there'll be no tomorrow.
Repeat until news hits CNN, FOX, etc...

Instant CCMF!

Don't have the $$$? Sit and wait then.

[Miz4r]

What the fu*k is going on with you BTC? You need to go to the moon ASAP, i am tired of all these stupid bears and shit

Just take a break, this forum is infested with trolls these days. BTC will do what it does, it will crush all the hopes and dreams of get rich quick bulls first and then it will do the same to the overconfident bears and trolls who are sure Bitcoin will be in a downward spiral forever. Zoom out, relax and grab yourself a beer or two and enjoy the ride.

[BitAddict]

With all this big bear flags... I'm sorry but I can't be bullish about bitcoin price in the short/mid term. It is probably going to retest lower levels again.
Right now there is more downside potential than upside, unless an ETF hits the market.

I disagree that it has more downside than upside potential. I see a drop of $100 from here as a small chance of happening but $100 rise could happen at any point. However if your constantly watching charts and are ready to make a move when the market does then you can easily limit risks on both scenarios.

We just had something huge like Microsoft accepting bitcoin and all what happened is a $27 pump (Only $13 remaining at the moment). I don't think another $100 pump is easy at all.

This is just showing us how weak bitcoin price is right now.

Of course I will gladly go long if it starts rising with strength, but IMO that's really unlikely.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

I don't think restesting lower levels is going to happen really fast, it could take some months of slow bleeding until entering the final panic dumping with a flash crash.
Exactly as it started back in August, but slower and with smaller percentage down, as pump and dumps are slowing down.

I'm also concerned that soon after the PayPal announcement we had a huge crash.
All I know is that we've done our job achieving price stability for now. Now is the time to adjust buy/sell orders.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aztecminer]

^
Mate, you're delusional.  This is all obvious stuff that's known to every 13yr-old, and the local lunatic fringe chooses to ignore 'coz it don't jive with their "I's techno vizhunary & guna b rich!" fantasies.

@inca:  I posted data regarding the way things are now.  Get back to me in 5 years, then we'll talk.

bitcoin is a developing technology .. don't let that thought hurt your brain as you think about it. meditate on it and you might grow some new grey matter .

[coinableS]

We just had something huge like Microsoft accepting bitcoin and all what happened is a $27 pump (Only $13 remaining at the moment). I don't think another $100 pump is easy at all.

This is just showing us how weak bitcoin price is right now.

This is the wide spread mentality right now. Bitcoin tends to launch when you least expect it.

[aztecminer]

dumps on Microsoft news, seems so bizarre-o world to me.

Accept the fact that Bitcoin is a purely speculative commodity, and you'll understand. 

maybe newegg should accept gold and silver as payment ..
or maybe they should accept government bonds as payment.
or maybe they should start accepting derivatives and equities as payment.
imo i think your definition of bitcoin is slightly flawed.
it appears to me bitcoin is more than just a speculative commodity.

[aztecminer]

...
By that logic if newegg, overstock, and dell stopped accepting BTC it'd be great cause now people can't spend their BTC so we go to moon  ...

Most people who "invest" in BTC don't do it to shop at Dell & NewEgg.
They might want to believe that others buy BTC to shop at Dell & NewEgg, but they themselves don't.
Because after the novelty of buying with BTC wears off, the sheer stupidity of it begins to sink in.  Imagine:

1. Spend fiat to buy BTC
2. Send BTC to a payment processor, who
  2a. Sells your BTC for fiat &
  2b. Sends fiat to the merchant that "accepts BTC".
3. Re-buy BTC you spent, probably from the same payment processor but at a premium, because "investment."

Funny as hell, doubt it happens too much tho.  Now for someone with a BTC stash from way back...  Nah, that would only create sell pressure, so won't happen

you have no vision. only thing u can see is what is right before you right now.

[NotLambchop]

dumps on Microsoft news, seems so bizarre-o world to me.

Accept the fact that Bitcoin is a purely speculative commodity, and you'll understand. 

maybe newegg should accept gold and silver as payment ..
or maybe they should accept government bonds as payment.
or maybe they should start accepting derivatives and equities as payment.
imo i think your definition of bitcoin is slightly flawed.
it appears to me bitcoin is more than just a speculative commodity.

1. Not sure why you feel newegg should accept gold and silver (largely speculative commodities), or the rest of the stuff you (sarcastically?) listed.
2. I have not given you my definition of Bitcoin.
3. For traders, and all practical purposes, Bitcoin is a purely speculative commodity.

Good morning, gentlemens.

[NotLambchop]

...
you have no vision. only thing u can see is what is right before you right now.

My vision is fine.  Yours, OTOH, is clouded by unbridled greed and, likely, substandard recreational neurochemicals.

[BitAddict]

We just had something huge like Microsoft accepting bitcoin and all what happened is a $27 pump (Only $13 remaining at the moment). I don't think another $100 pump is easy at all.

This is just showing us how weak bitcoin price is right now.

This is the wide spread mentality right now. Bitcoin tends to launch when you least expect it.

It is quite the opposite, almost everyone is waiting another big pump because of Microsoft news. All of those who bought in that last rally to get rich fast will start to dump all their coins if we don't have a big pump soon.

[grappa_barricata]

Added long vs short ratio charts for 1h/6h/12h/24h to BFXdata.com
Hope you'll find them useful

Hey bjorn, i use your site every day and it is extremely useful to me. Thanks man.