Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Tzupy]

...
Adoption or not, you're also here for a reason. The same reason we are all here for. Me you, and even that Lambtroll who I falsely thought he got away, because everybody got him on ignore!
Come on Tzupy, say the reason...
SAY IT!

I'm "here" because I believe there will be a new big bubble in the second half of 2016, and I hope to sell all my coins close to that top, for a massive fiat profit.

[macsga]

...
Adoption or not, you're also here for a reason. The same reason we are all here for. Me you, and even that Lambtroll who I falsely thought he got away, because everybody got him on ignore!
Come on Tzupy, say the reason...
SAY IT!

I'm "here" because I believe there will be a new big bubble in the second half of 2016, and I hope to sell all my coins close to that top, for a massive fiat profit.

We say the same thing. You're after fiat, I'm after BTC. Both are considered ''wealth''.

[inca]

The "adoption" is actually early adopters spending their bitcoins and increasing bitcoin liquidity on the exchanges, resulting in more seller pressure and lower prices.
I find quit likely that 1 - 2 months from now the ask sum on exchanges to almost double. Bears rejoice over increased "adoption".

It is coin distribution. But this process has continued since 2009 and looking at the price your argument simply does not follow.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Again, can somebody tell me if the 17 million USD buy wall for XRP at Bitstamp is a glitch or something?

It's a buy wall almost double the buy wall of the famous BTC BearWhale for fuck's sake lol

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Are you for real?

[Cebuu]

Time to drop!

Opening shorts!

[noobtrader]

...
Adoption or not, you're also here for a reason. The same reason we are all here for. Me you, and even that Lambtroll who I falsely thought he got away, because everybody got him on ignore!
Come on Tzupy, say the reason...
SAY IT!

I'm "here" because I believe there will be a new big bubble in the second half of 2016, and I hope to sell all my coins close to that top, for a massive fiat profit.

We say the same thing. You're after fiat, I'm after BTC. Both are considered ''wealth''.

im here because of the trolling, its an art.

[ShroomsKit]

We're starting to go in circles...

They are not minor problems... The USD volume (minus changebacks) is flat since April, and still less than January

USD tx is "flat" only from a very shallow analysis. Looking at it in more detail, we see it drastically fell from a peak value in December last year, with one intermediate spike in March, to a low point in May, and has been rising since then despite falling price.

USD tx going up since May despite falling price means one thing and one thing only: usage is going up since then.

Sorry if that doesn't fit your narrative, but it's about as close to a fact as you can get, given our imperfect ways to observe the economic network size.

Yes, I will give the same spiel again.  As I wrote before,  adoption surely increased from 2012 to 2013 to 2014. But I do not see any clear signs that adoption has been increasing over the last year.  The most germane indicators that you use as evidence of year-to-year increase show a decrease and stagnation since January.

Bitpay went from 5 million USD per month to 30 million per month from mid 2013 to mid 2014, and you're "not seeing any clear signs adoption is increasing". That's really pretty funny... Let me try to drive home my point that you're cherry picking now:

Is there a climatology department at your university? Maybe go over there in a year when the latest climate data does not show an increase in average temperate or some other metric that is used in the global climate models, and tell them that it looks like climate change/global warming is over, since their latest data point doesn't show a continuation of the trend. See how they'll laugh as they you show you the door.

I'm being a bit facetious here, the Bitcoin market trend is less established (and less researched) than climate trends, but the principle is the same:

If there has been a strong, clear trend of about 5 years, you cannot conclude from a weaker subtrend of a few months that the larger trend has reversed.

You can be "skeptical" perhaps based on the latest data points, but the global assessment still has to be driven by the global trend, not the local one.


I'll summarize:

Fact: Adoption is way up from 2010 (when the network went live on a global scale).

Fact: The latest available data that is indisputably in favor of growing adoption is from mid 2013 to mid 2014 (e.g. Bitpay).

Fact: The intra-2014 data is less conclusive, showing both signs of falling trends and rising trends.

Conclusion: If in one or two years from now, the numbers (like USD tx, Bitpay/Coinbase volume) are stagnant compared to now, we could perhaps conclude adoption halted. But as of December 2014, it is a safe conclusion, given the data, that adoption has been growing.

Great. Now everyone dump.

[JorgeStolfi]

Sigh. Do I need to count the posts in this thread that claim you are a troll spamming this thread with "NO SPECULATION" yapping, which they rather see going? Please take this good advice and let Bitcoin do it's business, while you can go do some "Academic" stuff.

Sigh. Do I need to count my posts where I say that price is held up by speculation alone? 

(Or the posts where people seem to be irked by the "academic" in my signature and don't even bother to read what I write?)

[NotLambchop]

It's over, gentlemen.  Go home.

[JorgeStolfi]

After doing some extensive "Academic" research the last couple of minutes, it seems that adoption of BRL is going backwards...

Have a look at the following graph and zoom out
https://www.google.com/finance?q=BRLUSD&ei=yhWMVLnJGYqowAPZ-oCAAw

Further proof
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/rupee/brazilian-real-at-9-year-low_1251549.html

It seems that the BRL is dying and has no longterm success.

All the speculators that were holding onto BRL dumped, because they saw no future in it anymore, even the whales dumped.

If you bother to read the scales, BRL dropped 10% relative to USD, year to date.  I will not be so mean as to ask how BTC has fared in the same period. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[inca]

If you bother to read the scales, BRL dropped 10% relative to USD, year to date.  I will not be so mean as to ask how BTC has fared in the same period. 

Of course if you did mention the performance of bitcoin year to date you would simply be pointed to the previous 4 years. If we did the same for the BRL, well..

[fonsie]

After doing some extensive "Academic" research the last couple of minutes, it seems that adoption of BRL is going backwards...

Have a look at the following graph and zoom out
https://www.google.com/finance?q=BRLUSD&ei=yhWMVLnJGYqowAPZ-oCAAw

Further proof
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/rupee/brazilian-real-at-9-year-low_1251549.html

It seems that the BRL is dying and has no longterm success.

All the speculators that were holding onto BRL dumped, because they saw no future in it anymore, even the whales dumped.

If you bother to read the scales, BRL dropped 10% relative to USD, year to date.  I will not be so mean as to ask how BTC has fared in the same period. 

Oh, but kind sir, you should compare since 2008/2009. BTC wasn't invented in 2013, or did your brilliant mind forget that part.
I will not be so mean as to ask how BTC has fared in the same period. 



I'm starting to think that you have been shorting bitcoin since that guy bought pizza for 10000 BTC...  

[octaft]

Props to oda krell for not being a humongous dick while disagreeing with the guy, at least. Unfortunately I didn't notice anyone else I could offer similar props to.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Troll City

[janos666]

After doing some extensive "Academic" research the last couple of minutes, it seems that adoption of BRL is going backwards...

Have a look at the following graph and zoom out
https://www.google.com/finance?q=BRLUSD&ei=yhWMVLnJGYqowAPZ-oCAAw

Further proof
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/rupee/brazilian-real-at-9-year-low_1251549.html

It seems that the BRL is dying and has no longterm success.

All the speculators that were holding onto BRL dumped, because they saw no future in it anymore, even the whales dumped.

If you bother to read the scales, BRL dropped 10% relative to USD, year to date.  I will not be so mean as to ask how BTC has fared in the same period.  

Oh, but kind sir, you should compare since 2008/2009. BTC wasn't invented in 2013, or did your brilliant mind forget that part.
I will not be so mean as to ask how BTC has fared in the same period.  



I'm starting to think that you have been shorting bitcoin since that guy bought pizza for 10000 BTC...  

It wasn't Bitcoin which started to become the ultimate bubble, it was just the very first sign of The Great Pizza Crash which made it look like that. 99.9% of people failed to realize this because everybody loves pizza pizza, hence the surge in other BTC trading pairs. But these asymmetries will equalize. People will realize that not everybody loves pizza (and in fact, a really good pizza is extremely rare) and thus BTC is not there yet.

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Same old same old.

Still stuck. 

Yawn.

[NotLambchop]

Troll City

Get on my level