(Closed) Butter Bot!: Premier Bitstamp, and BTC-E EMA Trading Platform (Closed)

[sukiho]

If at the very least the trade is not currently profitable, then don't commit a mistake of executing a needless transaction. It would be dumb to do so.

it follows the trend, as an example, if the price is crashing but you are going to have to sell at a loss to get out its not dumb or needless to do so

[lolwut]

has anyone found a better method/settings? I've only been using bbot for a short time, but It seems to be making intelligent trades.

[PuertoLibre]

If at the very least the trade is not currently profitable, then don't commit a mistake of executing a needless transaction. It would be dumb to do so.

it follows the trend, as an example, if the price is crashing but you are going to have to sell at a loss to get out its not dumb or needless to do so

I noticed the tiny downturn. Made 3 BTC from it just now.

It looks like different indicators say it is about to rebound.



Edit: And it is rebounding.

If your b-bot just got you out, then it will likely get you back in pretty soon (it looks like a small rebound). So about 2 fees incurred at the least.

[sukiho]

It looks like different indicators say it is about to rebound.

maybe, but with this strategy you wait till it is rebounding before buying in

[Kuroth]

PuertoLibre have you read all of goomboo's Thread???..  I mean every page of it?

You make a lot of good points but I believe most, if not all of them, are answered in Goomboos.


Remember goomboo's #1 rule is Keep it simple..  I am not sure what your trading background and Trading experience is But according to GoomBoo's, who seem to have a LOT of experience, he stated he has tried 1,000's of methods from complex to simple and has settled on EMA as a good simple one to use..

Note: I had almost zero Experience it all this so all I am going by is goomboo's Thread...   You may be a lot more Expereinced than GoomBoo and if you are that is great and we are glad you are here..  If you are not, Please please please go read every page of his thread..


Couple of clarifications about my post that you had questions on..


What I consider a sideways market(And I may be wrong) is that for the last 3 or 4 weeks, BTC has not gone up or down very much at all..   Maybe sideways means something else?  If the market is barely moving up and down say withing a 0.10 range...   Example 100   up to 109 per BTC back down to 101.   Is that not a sideways market?   On such small swings I dont know how anyone trading BTC(using a bot or not and using EMA or another method) can make much profits trading BTC unless you happen to be trading with like 1,000 or more BTC in your trade account?  Thus what I mean by a sideways market...



Next you ask about my statement that we need the market to move 0.40 to 0.60 to make a decent profit..   What I mean is per BTC..  Meaning right now as I type this the price of BTC is 103.    We would need it to go up to 143 or 163 to make a really good profit(using the Bot and EMA)   I think the way I was using my decimals was confusing..


Anyway as I said if you have a TON of Exp and even more then GoomBoo's then please continue in teaching us what you can..  But I am not sure(by what you have posted) that you do have more Exp then him..


  Thanks!



 

[PuertoLibre]

PuertoLibre have you read all of goomboo's Thread???..  I mean every page of it?

You make a lot of good points but I believe most, if not all of them, are answered in Goomboos.


Remember goomboo's #1 rule is Keep it simple..  I am not sure what your trading background and Trading experience is But according to GoomBoo's, who seem to have a LOT of experience, he stated he has tried 1,000's of methods from complex to simple and has settled on EMA as a good simple one to use..

Note: I had almost zero Experience it all this so all I am going by is goomboo's Thread...   You may be a lot more Expereinced than GoomBoo and if you are that is great and we are glad you are here..  If you are not, Please please please go read every page of his thread..


Couple of clarifications about my post that you had questions on..


What I consider a sideways market(And I may be wrong) is that for the last 3 or 4 weeks, BTC has not gone up or down very much at all..   Maybe sideways means something else?  If the market is barely moving up and down say withing a 0.10 range...   Example 100   up to 109 per BTC back down to 101.   Is that not a sideways market?   On such small swings I dont know how anyone trading BTC(using a bot or not and using EMA or another method) can make much profits trading BTC unless you happen to be trading with like 1,000 or more BTC in your trade account?  Thus what I mean by a sideways market...

Alright, fair question. How much is your trading volume?

Next you ask about my statement that we need the market to move 0.40 to 0.60 to make a decent profit..   What I mean is per BTC..  Meaning right now as I type this the price of BTC is 103.    We would need it to go up to 143 or 163 to make a really good profit(using the Bot and EMA)

Oh, okay. I didn't understand until just now. But the old days of 40%+ seems to be history.

The volume moving these days is nothing like it was before. (Average from eyeballing the market on MtGox is like 10k to 20k, back then with the crazy swings it was 10 times that much on average. Maybe more.)

Anyway as I said if you have a TOn of Exp and even more then GoomBoo's then please continue is teaching us what you can..  But I am not sure(by what you have posted) that you do have more Exp then him..


  Thanks!



 

I definitely do not have GoomBoo's experience. I just tinker, and then keep what works.

Now that you bring it up, there were some crazy swings "back in the day" of early 2013. I wonder if this accounts for the large profits cited by Pablo. If the volume remains as low as it has in these last two months...I don't think you'll make 8x (800%) of whatever was put in one year.

You stumbled on a good point I hadn't considered.

[Kuroth]

PuertoLibre have you read all of goomboo's Thread???..  I mean every page of it?

You make a lot of good points but I believe most, if not all of them, are answered in Goomboos.


Remember goomboo's #1 rule is Keep it simple..  I am not sure what your trading background and Trading experience is But according to GoomBoo's, who seem to have a LOT of experience, he stated he has tried 1,000's of methods from complex to simple and has settled on EMA as a good simple one to use..

Note: I had almost zero Experience it all this so all I am going by is goomboo's Thread...   You may be a lot more Expereinced than GoomBoo and if you are that is great and we are glad you are here..  If you are not, Please please please go read every page of his thread..


Couple of clarifications about my post that you had questions on..


What I consider a sideways market(And I may be wrong) is that for the last 3 or 4 weeks, BTC has not gone up or down very much at all..   Maybe sideways means something else?  If the market is barely moving up and down say withing a 0.10 range...   Example 100   up to 109 per BTC back down to 101.   Is that not a sideways market?   On such small swings I dont know how anyone trading BTC(using a bot or not and using EMA or another method) can make much profits trading BTC unless you happen to be trading with like 1,000 or more BTC in your trade account?  Thus what I mean by a sideways market...

Alright, fair question. How much is your trading volume?

Next you ask about my statement that we need the market to move 0.40 to 0.60 to make a decent profit..   What I mean is per BTC..  Meaning right now as I type this the price of BTC is 103.    We would need it to go up to 143 or 163 to make a really good profit(using the Bot and EMA)

Oh, okay. I didn't understand until just now. But the old days of 40%+ seems to be history.

The volume moving these days is nothing like it was before. (Average from eyeballing the market on MtGox is like 10k to 20k, back then with the crazy swings it was 10 times that much on average. Maybe more.)

Anyway as I said if you have a TOn of Exp and even more then GoomBoo's then please continue is teaching us what you can..  But I am not sure(by what you have posted) that you do have more Exp then him..


  Thanks!



 

I definitely do not have GoomBoo's experience. I just tinker, and then keep what works.

Now that you bring it up, there were some crazy swings "back in the day" of early 2013. I wonder if this accounts for the large profits cited by Pablo. If the volume remains as low as it has in these last two months...I don't think you'll make 8x (800%) of whatever was put in one year.

You stumbled on a good point I hadn't considered.

hehehe  My trading volume is really small..   5 BTC at the moment..  But I want to slowly build it up from my Mining..   I dont ever see a day where I will have like 1,000 BTC LOL But my dream is to someday have 50 to 100 BTC for just trading..

I am actually doing 3 main things right now..

Trading BTC with the Bot
Investing in BTC Stock on Bitfunder
And Mining..  (I have a Knc 400 GH's miner I am hoping to have by Sept if they really ship on time)  Right now I am GPU mining Alt Coins..

 So I am trying to diversify in my BTC holdings..  

[PuertoLibre]

@ Kuroth

By the way, many months ago, I created a small program that would count how many peaks and falls there were above a certain percentage. I don't recall what I did with it. But back then in about 1 hour and 30 minutes there were 14 to 11 profitable spikes (after fees). In 1 day it was just a little over 1 hundred.

If you want commulative variations to sum up to 40 percent you would probably have to do high frequency trading at this point.

[Kuroth]

@ Kuroth

By the way, many months ago, I created a small program that would count how many peaks and falls there were above a certain percentage. I don't recall what I did with it. But back then in about 1 hour and 30 minutes there were 14 to 11 profitable spikes (after fees). In 1 day it was just a little over 1 hundred.

If you want commulative variations to sum up to 40 percent you would probably have to do high frequency trading at this point.

Yea agree.  And always assumed if you have a Higher Volume to trade with, that would make a big Difference, on your profits..   

[Kuroth]

Now someone else pointed out that the Bot dont take into account Liquidity and resulting slippage..  Not sure the Bot could ever do that as it seems it would be pretty complex to code for..   

But keep in mind at least according to what Goomboo stated, he was NOT using a Bot..  But was dong this EMA method manually..  Thus he could take into account more things like Liquidity and resulting slippage and the Trade Fees etc..

[PuertoLibre]

https://cryptotrader.org/backtests/wGfXaAKif8RFme5Bg

According to the ema strategy of 0.25 and 1 day changes, the profit would be close to 400% since Jan 1, 2013. (10/21 ema)

2013-01-02 18:00 Simulation started. Balance: 1000 USD
2013-01-02 18:00 BUY 74.887 BTC at 13.28
2013-04-16 19:00 SELL 74.887 BTC at 68.36
2013-04-20 19:00 BUY 39.986 BTC at 126.62
2013-05-03 19:00 SELL 39.986 BTC at 98.10
2013-05-19 19:00 BUY 31.670 BTC at 122.50
2013-06-06 19:00 SELL 31.670 BTC at 118.97
2013-07-17 19:00 BUY 37.832 BTC at 98.50
2013-08-02 19:00 Simulation completed. Balance: 37.832 BTC (3953.46 USD)

===================

Same settings, only with an EMA of 14/21 and you get 800%

https://cryptotrader.org/backtests/EhQvz6SatHr4HPdeN

2013-01-02 18:00 Simulation started. Balance: 1000 USD
2013-01-02 18:00 BUY 74.887 BTC at 13.28
2013-05-06 19:00 SELL 74.887 BTC at 112.25
2013-05-21 19:00 BUY 67.653 BTC at 122.89
2013-06-07 19:00 SELL 67.653 BTC at 111.00
2013-07-26 19:00 BUY 77.349 BTC at 96.02
2013-08-02 19:00 Simulation completed. Balance: 77.349 BTC (8083.08 USD)

Someone previously asked me why. I think I forgot to respond.

=============================

https://cryptotrader.org/backtests/QviZdcwv6DNhCjjAL

2013-01-02 18:00 Simulation started. Balance: 1000 USD
2013-01-02 18:00 BUY 74.887 BTC at 13.28
2013-05-05 19:00 SELL 74.887 BTC at 115.98
2013-05-19 19:00 BUY 70.124 BTC at 122.50
2013-06-07 19:00 SELL 70.124 BTC at 111.00
2013-07-25 19:00 BUY 79.405 BTC at 96.95
2013-08-02 19:00 Simulation completed. Balance: 79.405 BTC (8297.91 USD)

14/21 ema

triggers at -0.01 in both buy/sell

830% results.

[Kuroth]

Yes Goomboo went to 1d as well..   This has been requested and Pablo says they are looking into it.. If not 1d would at least like to see 4h and 8h and 12h options..

[Kuroth]

But here again all these Wild %'s of profits was due to the Price of BTC being at the $15 per BTC  at the first of the Year..  Not saying we should throw that out of backtesting but I am not sure we will ever see upswing like that again anytime soon..   Just about ANY method during that time frame would have made a Large Profit..   


I am trying to be more realistic with my Backtesting..

[sukiho]

Yes Goomboo went to 1d as well..   This has been requested and Pablo says they are looking into it.

you dont really need a bot for that, just check the charts once a day

[Kuroth]

Not doing real great the last few weeks..  Not the Bot or EMA's fault at all..  Just that BTC as been sideways most of the last 3 weeks..

I am getting slowly eating away with Trade fees, and slippage..  (Mt Gox must love it)  LOL


In watching this now for a few weeks, we need at least a 0.30 swing in BTC price to make even a small profit..


I guess this is where patience comes in..    All it will take is one or two 0.40 or 0.60 swings up for us to make a decent profit..(Like the one back around the End of Jun into July.  Wish I had been running this then..   )


This is one reason I would LOVE to be able to apply EMA and use a bot against some of the Funds on BitFunder..  There are some huge swings over there on some funds..  I would think if you had a Bot that could trade there using EMA you you could make some serious $$$$$ Over a years time..

Hi Kuroth,

Can you direct me to where I might be able to read up on what Bitfunder is exactly and how it works?

Thanks in advance.

Well its right here  https://bitfunder.com/

And it works like a stock market..   

[fible1]

@ Pablo

By the way, does the back testing take into account the idea that the computer the bot runs on would need to be reset periodically?

Does shutting down and turning on B-Bot every week over the course of that year affect the results? (You said a number of days ago that the bot remembers certain critical things at power on)

Hey ,
   The back testing assumes that the bot has run both without interruption and without intervention. I think (and this is just me thinking out loud, no plans on this yet) that it would make sense to have the bot eventually run on our servers and have people mod settings and use tools from the extension.

Just to repeat, drops in connection are not good because the bot misses opportunities, intervention in trading is critically bad to how the bot will perform over the long term; it basically annuls the back testing.



Let me know if you need anything .

Pablo.

[fible1]

@ Kuroth

By the way, many months ago, I created a small program that would count how many peaks and falls there were above a certain percentage. I don't recall what I did with it. But back then in about 1 hour and 30 minutes there were 14 to 11 profitable spikes (after fees). In 1 day it was just a little over 1 hundred.

If you want commulative variations to sum up to 40 percent you would probably have to do high frequency trading at this point.

I think high frequency trading would be an interesting new strategy module when we get that off the ground. Part of the reason we will introduce strategy modules is to help people who want to make shorter term profit. We're open to suggestions as to what specific stratgies you guys would like to see .

Pablo.

[fible1]

Now someone else pointed out that the Bot dont take into account Liquidity and resulting slippage..  Not sure the Bot could ever do that as it seems it would be pretty complex to code for..   

But keep in mind at least according to what Goomboo stated, he was NOT using a Bot..  But was dong this EMA method manually..  Thus he could take into account more things like Liquidity and resulting slippage and the Trade Fees etc..

We are looking at slippage, the solution to this, as Kuroth points out, is mathematically complex; this is something we will likely work on after the next release.

Pablo.

[fible1]

I'm sorry I posted my answers all in a row today, and I'm sorry I'm spamming the thread again but I just want to tell you guys how happy I personally am with the discussions we have been having. Amongst ourselves we disagree on certain points but it's so encouraging to me to see you guys arguing your points with each other. I hope we can continue to have these discussions on a regular basis and to grow them into a collaborative effort .

Pablo.

[PuertoLibre]

@ Pablo

By the way, does the back testing take into account the idea that the computer the bot runs on would need to be reset periodically?

Does shutting down and turning on B-Bot every week over the course of that year affect the results? (You said a number of days ago that the bot remembers certain critical things at power on)

Hey ,
   The back testing assumes that the bot has run both without interruption and without intervention. I think (and this is just me thinking out loud, no plans on this yet) that it would make sense to have the bot eventually run on our servers and have people mod settings and use tools from the extension.

Ah, you stole my idea! Hehe, anyway, considering how the bot works it sounds like it needs a 24x7 environment.

Any idea how badly restarts will affect B-Bot? Is there a way to measure the damage from such an interruption?

(The reason I ask is because B-Bot is a plugin inside a browser....so 24x7 uptime even in chrome is hard to achieve. I restart my chrome once a month on average.)

Just to repeat, drops in connection are not good because the bot misses opportunities, intervention in trading is critically bad to how the bot will perform over the long term; it basically annuls the back testing.



Let me know if you need anything .

Pablo.

Is there a way to determine just how bad the result is with "reasonable" levels of interruption?

Vs

A server environment (that short of a tornado or an Admin hanging by the cables...really wouldn't interrupt the process.