First Asic for SIA - Obelisk SC1

[Vaccinus]

What do you think about the impact of such ASICs on the SIA price ?
UP ? Down ?
The difficulty will rise a lot, that's certain, but the price ?

asic coin are always bad when an asic hit a coin, that coin value can't increase anymore or just will be pumped but then dumped again look at litecoin, after the new l3 the price remained there, after the first pump because of segwit

[1714234794]

1714234794

[1714234794]

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[cryptobob88]

What do you think about the impact of such ASICs on the SIA price ?
UP ? Down ?
The difficulty will rise a lot, that's certain, but the price ?

asic coin are always bad when an asic hit a coin, that coin value can't increase anymore or just will be pumped but then dumped again look at litecoin, after the new l3 the price remained there, after the first pump because of segwit

How to explain bitcoin then and its value going up despite chiense asic farmers??

https://twitter.com/jgarzik/status/296709252351926273 ~around this date, 30 Jan 2013, people were getting their first asic miners, and the price in a month went from $18 to $34... and continued to rise until the crash.

[ekrififi]

What do you think about the impact of such ASICs on the SIA price ?
UP ? Down ?
The difficulty will rise a lot, that's certain, but the price ?

asic coin are always bad when an asic hit a coin, that coin value can't increase anymore or just will be pumped but then dumped again look at litecoin, after the new l3 the price remained there, after the first pump because of segwit

Th

How to explain bitcoin then and its value going up despite chiense asic farmers??

https://twitter.com/jgarzik/status/296709252351926273 ~around this date, 30 Jan 2013, people were getting their first asic miners, and the price in a month went from $18 to $34... and continued to rise until the crash.

Or even with Litecoin, there may have been some "pump and dump" at the time... there may STILL be people mining and dumping today, but the point is that OVER TIME, the people who just mined and stacked Litecoin made out, and those who traded their Litecoin sacrificed long term appreciation for short term gains.

The Litecoin network was able to withstand whatever short term trades happened at the time. I'm not saying SiaCoin will necessarily follow this same pattern, but regardless I don't think that a few (or a lot) of sia asic operators trading out of Sia will destroy the SiaCoin, especially over the long term...

[Sync485]

Until now they have only 500 order. And number didnt change since yesterday. Arent they updating or noone is buying?

[ekrififi]

Until now they have only 500 order. And number didnt change since yesterday. Arent they updating or noone is buying?

I believe their target was 2,000 units. They seem to have made accommodations for a second batch order, while still rewarding first batch buyers. 1st batch participants get at least 6 weeks of mining without 2nd batch asics on the blockchain... as well as a $250 coupon for future Obelisk products.

But consider what just happened. Obelisk raised 1.25 Million dollars in a short amount of time with no track record, no prototype, a one year lead time, and speculative specifications.

I'm all about being skeptical, I am... but maybe we give Obelisk a piece of that Kit Kat Bar...

[Eyedol-X]

Looks like current pre-orders is 630 as of today.

1370 to go

[superskillz]

Until now they have only 500 order. And number didnt change since yesterday. Arent they updating or noone is buying?

I believe their target was 2,000 units. They seem to have made accommodations for a second batch order, while still rewarding first batch buyers. 1st batch participants get at least 6 weeks of mining without 2nd batch asics on the blockchain... as well as a $250 coupon for future Obelisk products.

But consider what just happened. Obelisk raised 1.25 Million dollars in a short amount of time with no track record, no prototype, a one year lead time, and speculative specifications.

I'm all about being skeptical, I am... but maybe we give Obelisk a piece of that Kit Kat Bar...

I might even give them a butterfinger 

[damstr]

Looks like current pre-orders is 630 as of today.

1370 to go

I feel like that number should be higher.

[Eyedol-X]

Looks like current pre-orders is 630 as of today.

1370 to go

I feel like that number should be higher.

It probably is, the SIA Dev team has indicated they are manually approving all orders and one of their Devs is doing double duty on updating the Obelisk site.

[damstr]

Looks like current pre-orders is 630 as of today.

1370 to go

I feel like that number should be higher.

It probably is, the SIA Dev team has indicated they are manually approving all orders and one of their Devs is doing double duty on updating the Obelisk site.

I saw they are now accepting wire transfers as payment when they stated before they couldn't do it I believe. Not sure if panic mode or what.

[Eyedol-X]

Looks like current pre-orders is 630 as of today.

1370 to go

I feel like that number should be higher.

It probably is, the SIA Dev team has indicated they are manually approving all orders and one of their Devs is doing double duty on updating the Obelisk site.

I saw they are now accepting wire transfers as payment when they stated before they couldn't do it I believe. Not sure if panic mode or what.

I suspect no one thought they would pull this off initially so no one would get on board.... but when you have over 1 million USD in pre orders already, maybe some merchant processing company decided to jump on board.

[ekrififi]

Looks like current pre-orders is 630 as of today.

1370 to go

I feel like that number should be higher.

It probably is, the SIA Dev team has indicated they are manually approving all orders and one of their Devs is doing double duty on updating the Obelisk site.

I can see the sale number being higher because of manual approval and the bitcoin to USD conversion process... However, I don't think it's THAT much higher. I'm thinking the manual approval and conversion lag could account for an additional 50-200 units, but that's not really based on any "actual" information.

The questions I have are:
 1) How many units will be sold by the end of this round? - My guess is under 1000
 2) How many units will be sold in their second batch? - My guess is their second batch sale will be comparable to their first batch. Tho they'll receive their ASICs at least 6 weeks after first batch customers, 2nd batch customers won't have to wait as long. I imagine the price will be somewhat similar to $2,500... so maybe they'll sell more in a 2nd batch bc of the reduced lead time (and lack of holiday).
3) What is the minimum amount of units they need to sell to insure they follow through with the orders? - 1,200-3000?

TLDR - this first batch order seems like it'll settle around 1000 units sold. The seccond batch should do something similar. That'll bring their total sales for batches 1 and 2 to around 1500-3500 units... Again, this is JUST speculation. But the point is that the Obelisk SC1 becomes a better investment the less people buy them, provided enough are ordered to achieve the required minimum. The fewer units sold, the less mining competition among SC1 owners, the better the investment...

[Searing]

Looks like current pre-orders is 630 as of today.

1370 to go

I feel like that number should be higher.

It probably is, the SIA Dev team has indicated they are manually approving all orders and one of their Devs is doing double duty on updating the Obelisk site.

They are based in the USA....with 4th of July Tuesday tomorrow, they LIKELY have not looked at the order book since say last THURSDAY and split for the weekend.

Anyway, my view on the count sitting at 630 since last Thursday or so

[ekrififi]

Anyone see this Bloomberg piece about Sia?


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-15/digital-coins-are-so-hot-they-re-selling-them-like-an-ipo?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

[superskillz]

Anyone see this Bloomberg piece about Sia?


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-15/digital-coins-are-so-hot-they-re-selling-them-like-an-ipo?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

Yeah, read this piece. Sia is one of the few coins with an actual use out there -- once other developers start building friendly applications on top of it, we will start to see its potential.

[ekrififi]

Big news on the obelisk front. They reached 1,030 unit sales, qhich is impressive, but way below their original 10,000 unit goal.

They have now extended their first batch sale a week longer, with a max cap of 4,000 units. I believe their minimum for moving forward is 2,000 units. If they fall below that, they will (supposedly) be issuing refunds according to one of their developers...

If i were them, and I got CLOSE to 2,000 sales, i feel like I would figure SOMETHING out... instead of refunding MILLIONS of dollars. I just... i just couldn't imagine.

But the interesting thing is that if they sell 2000 units, instead of their original 10,000, then (I BELIEVE) these Obelisks would be 5 times more profitable than originally projected... at least before a second batch comes online. If I'm way off on this, please feel free to set me straight.

Yadda yadda blah blah blah, long story short, I'm considering buying another this week. I know antminer just listed their L3+ september batch, but I feel like these might have more upside potential...What do you guys think?

[chup]

But the interesting thing is that if they sell 2000 units, instead of their original 10,000, then (I BELIEVE) these Obelisks would be 5 times more profitable than originally projected... at least before a second batch comes online. If I'm way off on this, please feel free to set me straight.

As "more profitable" as more "vapourizing" ASIC is. 

[darval]

But the interesting thing is that if they sell 2000 units, instead of their original 10,000, then (I BELIEVE) these Obelisks would be 5 times more profitable than originally projected... at least before a second batch comes online. If I'm way off on this, please feel free to set me straight.

You are correct that the original projections about return rate and SC monthly production was based on the estimated 10k ASICS produced.  With the new cap being at 4k, this means the initial monthly SC production is 2.5 times more. 

There is a bunch of assumptions in these numbers but with 2.5 times less ASICs, the difficulty will not be as high so each miner will produce more coin, etc.

Plus the original number didn't have a cap (it was only a 10k estimate).  If they had somehow sold twice as many, it would have been half as profitable.  As someone who purchased a couple, I am really happy with the 4k cap as it makes my purchase twice as profitable. 

[ekrififi]

But the interesting thing is that if they sell 2000 units, instead of their original 10,000, then (I BELIEVE) these Obelisks would be 5 times more profitable than originally projected... at least before a second batch comes online. If I'm way off on this, please feel free to set me straight.

You are correct that the original projections about return rate and SC monthly production was based on the estimated 10k ASICS produced.  With the new cap being at 4k, this means the initial monthly SC production is 2.5 times more. 

There is a bunch of assumptions in these numbers but with 2.5 times less ASICs, the difficulty will not be as high so each miner will produce more coin, etc.

Plus the original number didn't have a cap (it was only a 10k estimate).  If they had somehow sold twice as many, it would have been half as profitable.  As someone who purchased a couple, I am really happy with the 4k cap as it makes my purchase twice as profitable. 

Do you happen to know if they are extending their 1st batch sale indefinitely? In other words, are they just extending their first batch sale another week (with a 4k maximum), or is this first batch sale continuing indefinitely, until they've reached 4,000 unit sales?

They're Twitter feed was a little unclear...

[martyroz]

But the interesting thing is that if they sell 2000 units, instead of their original 10,000, then (I BELIEVE) these Obelisks would be 5 times more profitable than originally projected... at least before a second batch comes online. If I'm way off on this, please feel free to set me straight.

You are correct that the original projections about return rate and SC monthly production was based on the estimated 10k ASICS produced.  With the new cap being at 4k, this means the initial monthly SC production is 2.5 times more.  

Not quite 2.5 * more monthly production - only in a world where GPU's aren't mining Siacoin.
The current network hashrate is 386Th/s. This is equal to 3860 Obelisks.

Say that the network hashrate is 500Th/s (5,000 Obelisks) by the time they are released (not an outrageous estimate)
The original estimate of 10,000 Obelisks = 15,000 total Obelisks of which the ASICs get (2/3)/10,000 rewards = 0.000066% of total reward.
4k cap = 9,000 total Obelisks of which the ASIC's get (4/9)/4,000 rewards = 0.000111% of total reward.
4k cap vs 10k cap = 68% more rewards.

However... if the dualminers stop and the Siacoin network hashrate drops to 200Th/s it becomes;
The original estimate of 10,000 Obelisks = 12,000 total Obelisks of which the ASICs get (5/6)/10,000 rewards = 0.000083% of total reward.
4k cap = 6,000 total Obelisks of which the ASIC's get (2/3)/4,000 rewards = 0.000166% of total reward.
4k cap vs 10k cap = 100% more rewards.

If they sell 2k... (22.5m daily rewards as of April 2018)

Code:

GPU NH  --- reward pu --- SC/d  --- week   --- 30day
100Th/s --- 0.000333% --- 7492  --- 52,447 --- 224,775
200Th/s --- 0.00025%  --- 5625  --- 39,375 --- 168,750
300Th/s --- 0.0002%   --- 4500  --- 31,500 --- 135,000
400Th/s --- 0.000166% --- 3748  --- 26,239 --- 112,455
500Th/s --- 0.000143% --- 3217  --- 22,522 --- 96,525
600Th/s --- 0.000125% --- 2812  --- 19,687 --- 84,375
700Th/s --- 0.000111% --- 2497  --- 17,482 --- 74,925