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Author Topic: The reason that keeps me from investing in bitcoin  (Read 15365 times)
BTCbengi
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August 12, 2017, 01:59:26 AM
 #221

Hello everybody.

I would like to invest some money in bitcoin, I don't use that money and I don't need it for the next 2/3 years.
I thought I found in bitcoin the perfect way to invest. BUT when I see the fees applied I don't see how the bitcoin will become mainstream! The fees are around 1mBTC which is approximatively 3$. Therefore what is the point of bitcoin?

The only thing I see : big amount transaction

But bitcoin won't be the money you use to buy your sandwich with those fees!

I saw a post saying: yeah burger king is willing to accept bitcoin in russia. Hopefully mcdonald will follow ! But why would someone pay 3$ fee therefore a third of his burger king menu in fee?

Will segwit may lower the fees?

Thank you Smiley

Your problem is that the fee is high?
I do not see it as high compared to the profit I earn
You should learn to accept loss if you want to succeed. So, think again about investing in Bitcoin, which is the fastest way to become rich

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August 12, 2017, 02:03:10 AM
Last edit: August 12, 2017, 02:13:30 AM by tikaka
 #222

Yes. Buying bitcoin is a good thing. In the coming time, it is value will continue to increase, we will be highly profitable and like you buy gold reserves. Now you buy reserve bitcoin Currently the government is slowly accepting bitcoin, you should buy it.

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August 12, 2017, 02:12:03 AM
 #223

Hello everybody.

I would like to invest some money in bitcoin, I don't use that money and I don't need it for the next 2/3 years.
I thought I found in bitcoin the perfect way to invest. BUT when I see the fees applied I don't see how the bitcoin will become mainstream! The fees are around 1mBTC which is approximatively 3$. Therefore what is the point of bitcoin?

The only thing I see : big amount transaction

But bitcoin won't be the money you use to buy your sandwich with those fees!

I saw a post saying: yeah burger king is willing to accept bitcoin in russia. Hopefully mcdonald will follow ! But why would someone pay 3$ fee therefore a third of his burger king menu in fee?

Will segwit may lower the fees?

Thank you Smiley

I keep on investing on bitcoin because it has high price. I continue to invest on it because my money grows higher. Even though it is not yet stable and it has high transaction fee. It is easy to manipulate your money through bitcoin. So I keep on investing on it.

Yeah. Also my thoughts. I also keeps on investing bitcoin because of its volatility. As like many traders, its pump and dump are the reason we get attracted because we all know that the price will continous to rise because of its instability. That over time our coins will be so much valuable than ever. And of course the big whales are just watching us for pumps and dumps.

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August 12, 2017, 02:15:05 AM
 #224

Hello everybody.

I would like to invest some money in bitcoin, I don't use that money and I don't need it for the next 2/3 years.
I thought I found in bitcoin the perfect way to invest. BUT when I see the fees applied I don't see how the bitcoin will become mainstream! The fees are around 1mBTC which is approximatively 3$. Therefore what is the point of bitcoin?

The only thing I see : big amount transaction

But bitcoin won't be the money you use to buy your sandwich with those fees!

I saw a post saying: yeah burger king is willing to accept bitcoin in russia. Hopefully mcdonald will follow ! But why would someone pay 3$ fee therefore a third of his burger king menu in fee?

Will segwit may lower the fees?

Thank you Smiley

As what you said, you don't need the money for next 2 to 3 years so it will be a good investment for you. Bitcoin may not be good for a day to day transaction nowadays because of the high fees and it would only be an advantage if you transact with it with higher amount for the fees not to have a major effect in the transaction. Bitcoin's value is continually increasing so maybe your investment today will be 2 - 5 times in value in the next 2 to three years.

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August 12, 2017, 02:15:59 AM
 #225

The OP has a point.  Bitcoin was designed to be a means to pay for goods and services without the interference of governments and central banks.  In other words it was designed for average people that want to buy sandwiches using something other than fiat currency.  This is absolutely fundamental to the arguments for or against Bitcoin in general, regardless of it being an investment vehicle.  What I see as a huge problem on this forum that seems to consume the majority of those involved in Bitcoin is that they ONLY see it as an investment.  It wasn't designed to be an investment.  It just so happens, due to it being first and the best publicized, it has turned into something that most people who are aware of it see SOLELY as an investment.  I can feel the denials formulating already.  But whenever I've been asked about it by random people who have no experience in investing, they have NO CONCEPT of it being used as a currency.  Even if they do, they have no clue how they'd use it to buy goods and services.

This is not a formula for stability or growth.  For the sake of full disclosure, I was aware of Bitcoin back in 2011 if not earlier.  Where I live I didn't trust the buying process and the hassle of it made me miss the boat.  I had at least $10,000 at the time that was in my mind to SPECULATE on it as something similar to any other currency.  That was then...and back then people who were interested in Bitcoin were NOTHING like the attitudes that I deduce in the posts that I see.  Back then people were realistic (2011).  Now I feel like I'm witnessing a modern version of Tulip-mania....people who are utterly blinded and consumed by greed.

First, supply of coins is irrelevant.  There could be one BTC split into 21,000,000 pieces, 200,000,000 pieces, etc.  Each piece can literally be the same value of one individual coin.

Second, the as price goes up the odds of becoming a millionaire fall precipitously.  If most people were having these conversations back in 2011 or earlier, you'd have valid points about the potential for vast future wealth.  But at $3,000+ those days are over.  You've missed the proverbial boat.  Certainly you have a chance of making money...but most of you need to accept that you are speculating....you are no longer investing.  Again, the vast majority of money sitting and holding BTC are not using it to buy or sell.  The fact that it went up as much as it did this year essentially proves that 90-95% holding BTC are just speculators that have no intention of ever using it to buy something.  In fact I have yet to meet anyone holding BTC that has actually bought anything with it.

I don't understand why so many people don't see a problem with this.  The only thing I can attribute it to is age and inexperience.  As an experienced investor myself, I made 1300% investing in UTILITY stocks over a period of 9 years.  For those that don't know what that means, it says that I made more money investing in the most stable, non-volatile type of company than even the best performing mutual funds over the same period of time.  I'm not saying that this makes me an expert or an oracle.  All I'm saying is that I got in at the best possible time...but with respect to these companies now, they've barely moved in the past 3 years.

IMO...the price and individual investor profile of the average holder of BTC is resembles that of a Ponzi scheme.  The cheerleading for the price to only go higher with the assumptions that drops and pullbacks can only possibly be temporary only strengthens my fears.  People don't want to face the facts that other currencies can come out with better features than BTC, governments can (and are working on) issue their own altcoins that will offer more stability to merchants in day-to-day transactions...and this is what most merchants care about.  People have argued with me before that restaurants, for example, will hold their BTC for the sake of "investment".  These same individuals obviously know nothing about what it means to be in the food industry.  If a restauranteur is going to invest in BTC they'll do it on their own time after profits have been cleared.  It's an apples vs. oranges thing...much to the dismay of speculators who believe that everyone shares their enthusiasm.

So what keeps me from investing in BTC?  The price has gone up too far too fast.  There are far too many speculators and not even close to enough day-to-day users that put their coins to use to buy or sell.  There are too many governments working on their own coins that the average consumer (not speculator) will prefer to use.  I'm as libertarian as one can be, but I know that most people do not think like I do.  Bitcoins scare them because they don't understand it.  They understand their fiat currencies enough to trust their use, even if they are largely clueless to the fraud and theft that they represent.  I think that the average person on the forum needs to wake up to this reality as well.

My own beliefs....if BTC falls into the $1500-2000 range over the next 6-12 months, buy as much as you can and dump it after gains of 40-100% depending on how fast it runs up.  If someone is buying it now, you are committing the most common mistake of those who lose their money in markets...buying on "highs" and letting greed rule.  I could be wrong, but historically (and even on BTC charts) I'm probably not.  Good luck and rethink your strategies....since so far I don't see many strategies for how BTC could be treated as an investment...which requires arguments "against".  All I see is greed and entitlement.
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August 12, 2017, 02:20:12 AM
 #226

Well, it looks like segwit did really lower the cost, now the fees are only around 1/3 of the before fees. Looks like making smaller transactions is easier than before but the fees are still pretty high.

Bitcoin is meant to be an investment, not a mainstream currency that is meant to be used everyday. You don't buy groceries with bitcoin since it isn't ready to be used as a mainstream currency. We, the community are still working out the kinks to it.

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August 12, 2017, 02:25:28 AM
 #227


Bitcoin is meant to be an investment, not a mainstream currency that is meant to be used everyday. You don't buy groceries with bitcoin since it isn't ready to be used as a mainstream currency. We, the community are still working out the kinks to it.

I'd like to see where this is stated, even if indirectly, in the original whitepaper.
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August 12, 2017, 02:27:21 AM
 #228

The OP has a point.  Bitcoin was designed to be a means to pay for goods and services without the interference of governments and central banks.  In other words it was designed for average people that want to buy sandwiches using something other than fiat currency.  This is absolutely fundamental to the arguments for or against Bitcoin in general, regardless of it being an investment vehicle.  What I see as a huge problem on this forum that seems to consume the majority of those involved in Bitcoin is that they ONLY see it as an investment.  It wasn't designed to be an investment.  It just so happens, due to it being first and the best publicized, it has turned into something that most people who are aware of it see SOLELY as an investment.  I can feel the denials formulating already.  But whenever I've been asked about it by random people who have no experience in investing, they have NO CONCEPT of it being used as a currency.  Even if they do, they have no clue how they'd use it to buy goods and services.

This is not a formula for stability or growth.  For the sake of full disclosure, I was aware of Bitcoin back in 2011 if not earlier.  Where I live I didn't trust the buying process and the hassle of it made me miss the boat.  I had at least $10,000 at the time that was in my mind to SPECULATE on it as something similar to any other currency.  That was then...and back then people who were interested in Bitcoin were NOTHING like the attitudes that I deduce in the posts that I see.  Back then people were realistic (2011).  Now I feel like I'm witnessing a modern version of Tulip-mania....people who are utterly blinded and consumed by greed.

First, supply of coins is irrelevant.  There could be one BTC split into 21,000,000 pieces, 200,000,000 pieces, etc.  Each piece can literally be the same value of one individual coin.

Second, the as price goes up the odds of becoming a millionaire fall precipitously.  If most people were having these conversations back in 2011 or earlier, you'd have valid points about the potential for vast future wealth.  But at $3,000+ those days are over.  You've missed the proverbial boat.  Certainly you have a chance of making money...but most of you need to accept that you are speculating....you are no longer investing.  Again, the vast majority of money sitting and holding BTC are not using it to buy or sell.  The fact that it went up as much as it did this year essentially proves that 90-95% holding BTC are just speculators that have no intention of ever using it to buy something.  In fact I have yet to meet anyone holding BTC that has actually bought anything with it.

I don't understand why so many people don't see a problem with this.  The only thing I can attribute it to is age and inexperience.  As an experienced investor myself, I made 1300% investing in UTILITY stocks over a period of 9 years.  For those that don't know what that means, it says that I made more money investing in the most stable, non-volatile type of company than even the best performing mutual funds over the same period of time.  I'm not saying that this makes me an expert or an oracle.  All I'm saying is that I got in at the best possible time...but with respect to these companies now, they've barely moved in the past 3 years.

IMO...the price and individual investor profile of the average holder of BTC is resembles that of a Ponzi scheme.  The cheerleading for the price to only go higher with the assumptions that drops and pullbacks can only possibly be temporary only strengthens my fears.  People don't want to face the facts that other currencies can come out with better features than BTC, governments can (and are working on) issue their own altcoins that will offer more stability to merchants in day-to-day transactions...and this is what most merchants care about.  People have argued with me before that restaurants, for example, will hold their BTC for the sake of "investment".  These same individuals obviously know nothing about what it means to be in the food industry.  If a restauranteur is going to invest in BTC they'll do it on their own time after profits have been cleared.  It's an apples vs. oranges thing...much to the dismay of speculators who believe that everyone shares their enthusiasm.

So what keeps me from investing in BTC?  The price has gone up too far too fast.  There are far too many speculators and not even close to enough day-to-day users that put their coins to use to buy or sell.  There are too many governments working on their own coins that the average consumer (not speculator) will prefer to use.  I'm as libertarian as one can be, but I know that most people do not think like I do.  Bitcoins scare them because they don't understand it.  They understand their fiat currencies enough to trust their use, even if they are largely clueless to the fraud and theft that they represent.  I think that the average person on the forum needs to wake up to this reality as well.

My own beliefs....if BTC falls into the $1500-2000 range over the next 6-12 months, buy as much as you can and dump it after gains of 40-100% depending on how fast it runs up.  If someone is buying it now, you are committing the most common mistake of those who lose their money in markets...buying on "highs" and letting greed rule.  I could be wrong, but historically (and even on BTC charts) I'm probably not.  Good luck and rethink your strategies....since so far I don't see many strategies for how BTC could be treated as an investment...which requires arguments "against".  All I see is greed and entitlement.

Holy crap, that is a huge essay, how long did it take you to write it. First post and you have already made a huge impression on a lot of readers here.

Bitcoin was designed for average people to buy products without interference from the government, but the blockchain is too congested for it to do so.

Everything else is well written and I agree with it. You write a mean essay!

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August 12, 2017, 02:30:48 AM
 #229


Bitcoin is meant to be an investment, not a mainstream currency that is meant to be used everyday. You don't buy groceries with bitcoin since it isn't ready to be used as a mainstream currency. We, the community are still working out the kinks to it.

I'd like to see where this is stated, even if indirectly, in the original whitepaper.
If you think about it, the block chain doesn't encourage daily spending. The way bitcoin was  made, with the miners encouraged what you said, greed.

As block rewards keep decreasing, the view of looking at bitcoin as an everyday currency decreases, since to make up for the lost block rewards, miner fees would have to be increased. This makes bitcoin useless for smaller dust transaction fees, and encourages people to just hold bitcoin as an investment.

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August 12, 2017, 02:36:43 AM
 #230


Bitcoin is meant to be an investment, not a mainstream currency that is meant to be used everyday. You don't buy groceries with bitcoin since it isn't ready to be used as a mainstream currency. We, the community are still working out the kinks to it.

I'd like to see where this is stated, even if indirectly, in the original whitepaper.
If you think about it, the block chain doesn't encourage daily spending. The way bitcoin was  made, with the miners encouraged what you said, greed.

As block rewards keep decreasing, the view of looking at bitcoin as an everyday currency decreases, since to make up for the lost block rewards, miner fees would have to be increased. This makes bitcoin useless for smaller dust transaction fees, and encourages people to just hold bitcoin as an investment.

It took me about 20 min to write...all of that has been swirling in my head for years.  This is just the first time I put it all down in one place.  Thanks for the props.  While you have a point that even if it's not stated explicitly on the white paper, there needs to be daily spending for the average person to trust it, therefore propelling it into the stratosphere.  If the average consumer sees it as an "investment", BTC will be rendered to the same status as pork bellies in the next 2-3 years.
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August 12, 2017, 02:48:23 AM
 #231


Bitcoin is meant to be an investment, not a mainstream currency that is meant to be used everyday. You don't buy groceries with bitcoin since it isn't ready to be used as a mainstream currency. We, the community are still working out the kinks to it.

I'd like to see where this is stated, even if indirectly, in the original whitepaper.
If you think about it, the block chain doesn't encourage daily spending. The way bitcoin was  made, with the miners encouraged what you said, greed.

As block rewards keep decreasing, the view of looking at bitcoin as an everyday currency decreases, since to make up for the lost block rewards, miner fees would have to be increased. This makes bitcoin useless for smaller dust transaction fees, and encourages people to just hold bitcoin as an investment.

It took me about 20 min to write...all of that has been swirling in my head for years.  This is just the first time I put it all down in one place.  Thanks for the props.  While you have a point that even if it's not stated explicitly on the white paper, there needs to be daily spending for the average person to trust it, therefore propelling it into the stratosphere.  If the average consumer sees it as an "investment", BTC will be rendered to the same status as pork bellies in the next 2-3 years.
I guess so, even though segwit lowered cost quite a lot, I don't think that bitcoin is at a point where it can become mainstream. With electricity costs being super high where I live, mining is not efficient at all.

I think that the mining industry in bitcoin will soon be monopolised by China and other places where  electricity is super cheap. The vision of bitcoin was meant to be what you stated, for sure, but bitcoin has been transformed into something else.

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August 12, 2017, 03:08:48 AM
 #232


I think that the mining industry in bitcoin will soon be monopolised by China and other places where  electricity is super cheap. The vision of bitcoin was meant to be what you stated, for sure, but bitcoin has been transformed into something else.

This is where I believe that there is a window of time of 2-3 years (but probably less than 2 years) where BTC must establish itself as a mainstream currency of the masses that can be traded on FOREX and justify the loftiest of predictions on its future price.  If this doesn't happen in this timeframe, another altcoin (probably government backed...maybe initially backed by gold?) will emerge that will be accepted by the mainstream and FOREX markets.  That's actually another point of debate that people miss...just because BTC was around for years already doesn't necessarily mean that it will last for the same amount of time in the future going forward.  Of the 1000 or altcoins out there I predict that the majority will disappear much like companies in the dot-bomb era.  As of now it will be a race forward to see which currencies do the right things at the right times that makes them survive and go to the next level.  As much as people want to believe the contrary, BTC is not Coca-Cola when it comes to brand recognition.  Relatively speaking they are not even in the same Universe.

From where I'm sitting, this is where the idea of Tulip-mania creeps in.  In the case of cryptos, things happen so fast and due to their completely virtual valuation, things could be uglier than when Tulip bulbs went from a value worth an estate...to whatever tulip bulbs have sold for over time.  This idea of "buy and hold for years" echoed on this forum like gospel shows how little so many understand about investing and valuation of their investment.  And I'd bet that most of these people claim to be experts in BTC and other altcoins.  Those are the first people who will panic in a very bad way.
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August 12, 2017, 03:18:07 AM
 #233

Yes. Buying bitcoin is a good thing. In the coming time, it is value will continue to increase, we will be highly profitable and like you buy gold reserves. Now you buy reserve bitcoin Currently the government is slowly accepting bitcoin, you should buy it.
Yep bitcoins will be adopted by all of peoples around the world, corporations, comunities, the Banks and the government
at least they will adopt technology behind of blockchain, bitcoins will protect our whealty from inflation.
Bitcoins will be new digital gold, new currency, new asset can be controled by the owner without third party
so we must invest in bitcoins.
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August 12, 2017, 03:34:19 AM
 #234

Yes. Buying bitcoin is a good thing. In the coming time, it is value will continue to increase, we will be highly profitable and like you buy gold reserves. Now you buy reserve bitcoin Currently the government is slowly accepting bitcoin, you should buy it.
will be adopted by all of peoples around the world, corporations, comunities, the Banks and the government
at least they will adopt technology behind of blockchain

I can agree with this phrase for the most part.  Everything else, specific to BTC lost me.  What makes you so certain that all of these people will take the "Pepsi challenge" and it will go as you predict?  What is it about Bitcoin that makes it impossible or improbable for other altcoins, especially those currently in development by governments, to not do the same thing (or better) than is currently done by Bitcoin and become the dominant cryptocurrency or currencies?
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August 12, 2017, 03:48:41 AM
 #235

Yes. Buying bitcoin is a good thing. In the coming time, it is value will continue to increase, we will be highly profitable and like you buy gold reserves. Now you buy reserve bitcoin Currently the government is slowly accepting bitcoin, you should buy it.
Yep bitcoins will be adopted by all of peoples around the world, corporations, comunities, the Banks and the government
at least they will adopt technology behind of blockchain, bitcoins will protect our whealty from inflation.
Bitcoins will be new digital gold, new currency, new asset can be controled by the owner without third party
so we must invest in bitcoins.

Definitely bitcoin has come to a very strong currency as of this time and it has it's own independent value in terms of it's price value. One of the best reason why we invest for this currency,  because you remain anonymous to the real world of physical money; you now have the digital assets which you can use for your future financial growth.
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August 12, 2017, 03:52:22 AM
 #236

Don't you think that the Bitcoin core or external Bitcoin companies are willing to solve the issue of high fees? They use Bitcoin too and since they are early adopters, they have much more holdings than us, so have faith. The high fees issue will be resolved soon and even after the fork, I am experiencing less fees for my transactions (not all the time but still in almost 40%-60% cases). In next few years, we will have faster confirmation time and lesser fees. If you don't have trust in Bitcoin then don't invest but if you believe that it will change the financial world but there is a little problem and thus if you are not investing then it is your mistake.
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August 12, 2017, 04:00:31 AM
 #237


I think that the mining industry in bitcoin will soon be monopolised by China and other places where  electricity is super cheap. The vision of bitcoin was meant to be what you stated, for sure, but bitcoin has been transformed into something else.

This is where I believe that there is a window of time of 2-3 years (but probably less than 2 years) where BTC must establish itself as a mainstream currency of the masses that can be traded on FOREX and justify the loftiest of predictions on its future price.  If this doesn't happen in this timeframe, another altcoin (probably government backed...maybe initially backed by gold?) will emerge that will be accepted by the mainstream and FOREX markets.  That's actually another point of debate that people miss...just because BTC was around for years already doesn't necessarily mean that it will last for the same amount of time in the future going forward.  Of the 1000 or altcoins out there I predict that the majority will disappear much like companies in the dot-bomb era.  As of now it will be a race forward to see which currencies do the right things at the right times that makes them survive and go to the next level.  As much as people want to believe the contrary, BTC is not Coca-Cola when it comes to brand recognition.  Relatively speaking they are not even in the same Universe.

From where I'm sitting, this is where the idea of Tulip-mania creeps in.  In the case of cryptos, things happen so fast and due to their completely virtual valuation, things could be uglier than when Tulip bulbs went from a value worth an estate...to whatever tulip bulbs have sold for over time.  This idea of "buy and hold for years" echoed on this forum like gospel shows how little so many understand about investing and valuation of their investment.  And I'd bet that most of these people claim to be experts in BTC and other altcoins.  Those are the first people who will panic in a very bad way.

Yes, that is a very nice breakdown of what I said and I do agree with you. Tulip-mania (For people who don't know, he is referring to the first major financial bubble) seems to be present with Bitcoin and will only keep on being present unless Bitcoin establishes itself as a mainstream currency, useable in real life and digital situations. There are already project, for example cryptopay, which makes this a reality, but to we need to make Bitcoin itself, with no other outliers, useable in real life situations. Right now it is just too hard.


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August 12, 2017, 04:03:36 AM
 #238


Definitely bitcoin has come to a very strong currency as of this time and it has it's own independent value in terms of it's price value. One of the best reason why we invest for this currency,  because you remain anonymous to the real world of physical money; you now have the digital assets which you can use for your future financial growth.

How is being anonymous unique to BTC?  There are other cryptos out there that are arguably superior when it comes to anonymity...I'll assume that someone that understands cryptos knows their specific names so I won't say them here, at least the ones I know for the sake of neutrality.

Also what makes BTC a "strong currency"?  BTC is definitely a fascinating instrument for (mostly) upside speculation but probably less than 5% of those who own BTC actually use it as a currency.  This is definitely not a good thing.

Finally, what makes BTC a digital asset that is any different in its value relative to Dollars?  Most Dollars exist in digital form and even BTC bases its value on the Dollar...with the aside that it can be converted to a local currency of choice.  As it stands, if all fiat currencies become worthless BTC becomes equally worthless since it is not backed by anything tangible (real).

All I'm saying here is that there are many flaws in BTC that I would love to see fixed.  It is not the panacea that you describe here...or at least your arguments feel incomplete.
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August 12, 2017, 04:06:42 AM
 #239

Hello everybody.

I would like to invest some money in bitcoin, I don't use that money and I don't need it for the next 2/3 years.
I thought I found in bitcoin the perfect way to invest. BUT when I see the fees applied I don't see how the bitcoin will become mainstream! The fees are around 1mBTC which is approximatively 3$. Therefore what is the point of bitcoin?

The only thing I see : big amount transaction

But bitcoin won't be the money you use to buy your sandwich with those fees!

I saw a post saying: yeah burger king is willing to accept bitcoin in russia. Hopefully mcdonald will follow ! But why would someone pay 3$ fee therefore a third of his burger king menu in fee?

Will segwit may lower the fees?

Thank you Smiley
I think those fees are high because not a lot of people knew about bitcoin also, those fees will help them build up and support bitcoin for the future. If bitcoin will be mainstream surely the fees will go down especially if they don't do that many people will not use bitcoin but as for now bitcoin is in the process of improving and upgrading. Its easy to say that bitcoin will not be the future and has still many flows, Yes this is true but those fees are the purpose to improve them for the better future. I keep investing in bitcoin also because I can see the potential of bitcoin in the future and you can still earn bitcoin without investing real money if you did your research you know that you can earn bitcoin in different ways.
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August 12, 2017, 04:22:02 AM
 #240


I think that the mining industry in bitcoin will soon be monopolised by China and other places where  electricity is super cheap. The vision of bitcoin was meant to be what you stated, for sure, but bitcoin has been transformed into something else.

This is where I believe that there is a window of time of 2-3 years (but probably less than 2 years) where BTC must establish itself as a mainstream currency of the masses that can be traded on FOREX and justify the loftiest of predictions on its future price.  If this doesn't happen in this timeframe, another altcoin (probably government backed...maybe initially backed by gold?) will emerge that will be accepted by the mainstream and FOREX markets.  That's actually another point of debate that people miss...just because BTC was around for years already doesn't necessarily mean that it will last for the same amount of time in the future going forward.  Of the 1000 or altcoins out there I predict that the majority will disappear much like companies in the dot-bomb era.  As of now it will be a race forward to see which currencies do the right things at the right times that makes them survive and go to the next level.  As much as people want to believe the contrary, BTC is not Coca-Cola when it comes to brand recognition.  Relatively speaking they are not even in the same Universe.

From where I'm sitting, this is where the idea of Tulip-mania creeps in.  In the case of cryptos, things happen so fast and due to their completely virtual valuation, things could be uglier than when Tulip bulbs went from a value worth an estate...to whatever tulip bulbs have sold for over time.  This idea of "buy and hold for years" echoed on this forum like gospel shows how little so many understand about investing and valuation of their investment.  And I'd bet that most of these people claim to be experts in BTC and other altcoins.  Those are the first people who will panic in a very bad way.

Yes, that is a very nice breakdown of what I said and I do agree with you. Tulip-mania (For people who don't know, he is referring to the first major financial bubble) seems to be present with Bitcoin and will only keep on being present unless Bitcoin establishes itself as a mainstream currency, useable in real life and digital situations. There are already project, for example cryptopay, which makes this a reality, but to we need to make Bitcoin itself, with no other outliers, useable in real life situations. Right now it is just too hard.




Even if the price of BTC crashes back down to $500-600 (regardless of it remaining the most valuable crypto per coin) I think that this will put a chilling effect on its specific place in the market where it trades in that range for a long period of time, just like the first time it was above $1000.  The fanatics will insist that it will come back...but I think the party will be over should this come to pass.  I believe that the smart money will cash out should it fall below what I said in my first post above and look for alternatives.  I believe that everyone here is correct on most of what they are saying...just that I think that the tortoise that wins this race will be not be the hare on which most are placing their bets.
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