Avalon batch [3] countdown!

[jspielberg]

Agreed --- I believe that Yifu is a pretty stand up guy.

I also think, the people who receive their avalons will have no issues making back their BTC (and I personally think it will take less than 4 months).

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[loshia]

after speaking to yifu at the bitcoin conference I'm positive my batch 3 order will be shipping by the 19th of June.
I think my bfl orders may never come now.

Super!
Which means that all batch2 and batch2 trade-ins shall be delivered first unless you are "special"

That are good news for all batch2 customers
There are only two weeks left  

[Rampion]

Correct, I will reformulate that: if batch #3 arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, they won't even break-even IMO.

Even at 35 million they'd break even in 46 days (4-unit with extremely conservative power costs as well).

Your  calculations are completely wrong.

1) I paid 76.46btc for a 3 modules unit, thus you should put $10,000 as "rig cost". The point is to break even in btc, not in usd

2) the crucial point is that you are considering a constant difficulty of 35m during 46 days, which won't happen. Difficulty retargets every 15 days, so after 30 days of receiving your unit diff may well be 70m.

Summing up, you are not calculating the profitability decline during the analyzed timeframe, which is a huge mistake.

Use bitcoinx.com/profit and insert "0.01" in the "yearly profitability decline" field, which means that in 1 year difficulty will grow x100, and repeat your calculations.

As a rule of thumb: currently you should aim to break even in 1 month if you want to make some good long term profit. If you break even in 2 months it's ok, but if you don't is very likely that you won't b/e at all because of the huge grow in diff. we are witnessing.

[batman, not crabman]

Personally, I consider break even in USD as 'break even'.  It's what I use every day, and over half the cost of mine was in $ as I didn't have the BTC.
I can see how miners who paid solely in BTC consider that to be break even though.

[SolarSilver]

Personally, I consider break even in USD as 'break even'.  It's what I use every day, and over half the cost of mine was in $ as I didn't have the BTC.
I can see how miners who paid solely in BTC consider that to be break even though.

Then why bother to buy mining equipment? You would have been easier of just buying the BTC and holding it if just the USD gain is what you were after...

Most of us want to grow (and keep growing) our BTC holdings

[Rampion]

Personally, I consider break even in USD as 'break even'.  It's what I use every day, and over half the cost of mine was in $ as I didn't have the BTC.
I can see how miners who paid solely in BTC consider that to be break even though.

Then why bother to buy mining equipment? You would have been easier of just buying the BTC and holding it if just the USD gain is what you were after...

Most of us want to grow (and keep growing) our BTC holdings

This.

batman: if you paid your mining rig in USD, then your logic *may* make sense. But as we are discussing about Avalon batch #3, which was paid in BTC, the only breakeven that matters is in BTC terms.

[ISAWHIM]

that 30% diff jump was scary.

The hashrate drop makes me think ..... What if this isn't variance but alot of Avalons now getting packed for shipment..!!! B2&B3? Just guessing....

This was actually mentioned by someone else in a different thread. Something about a few THs dropping off the network suddenly.

That is low-miners retiring, and ASIC's failing... (Being attacked, hardware failures, driver failures, overheating, no work, tweaking settings, rebooting on failures, etc...)
The fluctuations are greater with ASIC's, because all that power is in one basket. On minute offline is like $100 to a big-rig. lol.

That, plus switching pools, network traffic, dropped packets, orphaned blocks, failed blocks, etc... That happens 100x faster to an ASIC, and 100x more often. Call it a "flaw" of thinking too fast for your own good... Sort of like the ADD of computers.

[Chrstian]

that 30% diff jump was scary.

The hashrate drop makes me think ..... What if this isn't variance but alot of Avalons now getting packed for shipment..!!! B2&B3? Just guessing....

This was actually mentioned by someone else in a different thread. Something about a few THs dropping off the network suddenly.

That is low-miners retiring, and ASIC's failing... (Being attacked, hardware failures, driver failures, overheating, no work, tweaking settings, rebooting on failures, etc...)
The fluctuations are greater with ASIC's, because all that power is in one basket. On minute offline is like $100 to a big-rig. lol.

That, plus switching pools, network traffic, dropped packets, orphaned blocks, failed blocks, etc... That happens 100x faster to an ASIC, and 100x more often. Call it a "flaw" of thinking too fast for your own good... Sort of like the ADD of computers.

Ohmygod!! Theres a mining operation pulling in 144,000 if its online for 24 hours!!!!(100$ a minute)

[rudrigorc2]

isnt this the saddest thread in this forum?

anyone wants to talk about the ROI for these machines?

[Wayne_Chang]

I think we should think what we can do at this point instead of waiting for Avalon's update.

[rudrigorc2]

what else can we do?!

[CoinHoarder]

isnt this the saddest thread in this forum?

anyone wants to talk about the ROI for these machines?

I admit it sucks sitting on the sidelines watching difficulty skyrocket. Meanwhile paying rent +bills at a commercial property that is empty of any hashing ASICs...

Sad times indeed.

Yet, I still remain optimistic Avalon will deliver soon. Hopefully Batch 3 is well under way by the end of the month. 

[Wayne_Chang]

what else can we do?!

What can we do to give Avalon pressure to agree refund?
I want to refund my batch#3 order.

[kinitex]

what else can we do?!

What can we do to give Avalon pressure to agree refund?
I want to refund my batch#3 order.

At this point it would be more profitable for them to refund all their existing pre-orders and just mine with the equipment themselves, which they're already doing minus the refunds.

[kinitex]

600 orders at 75 bitcoins today = $5,400,000

600 asics * 68Gh/s each = 40,800 Gh/s

40,800 Gh/s = $160,000 per day at the new 15.6mil difficulty. $200,000 at the previous 12mil difficulty.

I'm willing to bet they've mined close to, if not more than that $5.4mil already!

Why would they rush shipping them at this point?

[Wayne_Chang]

Who told you that they would rush shipping?

[tempt]

Why are you all so butthurt? Stop complaining about them. You have no right to make 5000% ROI within 1 week like Batch 1. You just bought a product, it will be delivered some time, your ROI will still be good.
Stop being greedy or just sell your preorder in the forum.

[koob]

Why are you all so butthurt? Stop complaining about them. You have no right to make 5000% ROI within 1 week like Batch 1. You just bought a product, it will be delivered some time, your ROI will still be good.
Stop being greedy or just sell your preorder in the forum.

They have right to complain. They paid more than batch#1 with shipping time announced to 5 May. Its already month late, and not even batch#2 delivered.

[SolarSilver]

Why are you all so butthurt? Stop complaining about them. You have no right to make 5000% ROI within 1 week like Batch 1.

For the record, Batch #1 machines never made 5000% ROI within 1 week.

It took about 10 to 15 days for a Batch #1 to break even and with increasing difficulty, the daily payouts went down drastically since. But Batch #1 had the early bird advantage. A Batch #1 machine up to date generated about BTC 360.

The Batch #3 will be more likely be associated with a different kind of bird, perhaps the Dodo.

If you look at the potential for Batch #3, at future difficulty, the daily revenue will be much lower than anybody could have anticipated.

By the way Tempt, care to disclose if you have skin in the game? Do you have Batch #2 or Batch #3 on order?

[martinm]

Indeed its a sad thread! However I don't have any hope that BitSyncom will provide something like customer support in the near future. We ordered a Batch 3 Avalon because we thought they are trustful and will ship on May 5 like announced, we even agreed to their super customer unfriendly bullshit terms. They don't provide any explanations for the delays, any new shipping dates, don't answers to customers from Batch 1 that didn't received their machines, partially deliver used machines(dust from long term use inside), don't respond to tickets, don't respond in this forum, don't provide any hotline or address so that customers could reach them. On the other hand side, they set up some very bold rules. They accepted for Chinese customers payments in RMB, if they doesn't receive the payment during 2-3 days, they claimed to refunded only 70% of the total price and would not accept your order, that's a cost above 1500USD for a refund at a 3 module machine. If you look at all of that, its a mess. As I listened to Yifu's speech at the Bitcom, he made an impression of a nice guy. Afterwards I took a deeper look at the facts we know and tried to map it to the things he said. I got a feeling that he he couldn't say anything about the real situation. I assume this mass is not his fault, but actually it could be possible that his team is a reason for a lot of problems. They could use the machines for mining, and try to make as much money as possible for themself. As Yifu tried to make some pressure on them to deliver, they started to damage the machines and created more troubles. From what we know, the box of the damaged Avalon's was in good shape, the box was not opened during shipping, so who should have done that if not an insider? All the talk about the good attitudes of his team could be a appeal to them to get back on the right track. The majority of people in China want just to make a lot of money as fast as possible, fortunately it does not count for all. However, to blame his own team would not help and could make the situation worse. He is not on side so that he could supervise the operation, so actually it's not in his hand, even he is responsible for.
So what can we do? Not much, we deal with a company that is just a mailbox. The only way you could try is the legal way. Write a letter to their registered address, use the U.S. Laws that apply for companies doing business inside the U.S, that selling products over the internet. Try to get a refund in this way, they terms are invalid if they are against U.S Laws. For a single person it would not make too much sense, just if you have put a lot of money into it, or you can engage a lawyer together with others. Maybe you even will receive your unit till there is any visible result from this case. However, just to pray and hope that BitSyncom will have   compassion seems the best way for the moment.

For the hard way, here is the company data:
Company Name:    BITSYNCOM LLC
Status:    Active
Filing Date:    09/27/2012
Entity Type:    Foreign Limited-Liability Company
File Number:    4301553
Filing State:    New York (NY)
Qualifying State:    Nevada (NV)
Company Age:    9 Months
Principal Address:    
C/O Business Filings Incorporated 187 Wolf Road,
Suite 101
Albany, NY 12205