Avalon batch [3] countdown!

[jspielberg]

The reality is that batch 3 is still the only non vaporware accessible (if on the b3 order list) with a mathematical chance however small of getting a small ROI.  September will look obviously different but we are talking about now.

[ftping]

Why are you guys not requesting a refund at this point?

Same reason you didn't I'm guessing.

I'm mining with my Batch #2 unit.

I know that.  Batch 3 ships right after batch 2 according to yifu.  I don't really think a couple weeks is going to make it ROI much later than yours.

Good luck with that, I guess.

Thank you.  All in all, the mining community is a very doom and gloom mindset.  In the history since I've been here, I've heard people say this and that are never going to be profitable, whether it's GPUs, FPGAs, or ASICs.  They have been wrong most of the time.  I will let the chips fall where they may.  Good luck to you too.

+1000000000000000000.

Everyone is so fucking anxious on this board. Every other post is a "Where is my order?! What hasn't it shipped? OMG OMG OMG NO ROI!!!11"
I do not blame Yifu at all for not appearing on the board frequently. Good for him for avoiding all the FUD.

I now, right? People get so needy when they've been lied to by somebody holding thousands of their money.

I have a B3 pre-order, so they're also holding thousands of my own money. The product is proven and the shipping is in progress. Relax.

[pikeadz]

We all knew the risks when we bought (or gambled) with Avalon.  This is a fledgling industry where risks and rewards are high.  If I appear as though I don't care, you couldn't be more wrong.  It was a calculated risk that I took, and I accept whatever hand I am dealt based on the risk that I took.  Obviously, someone running away with my money is not within that acceptable risk, and Avalon is not doing that.  But delays are expected.  The other reason I am calm and patient is because the profit (or loss) from the 5 Avalons I bought are not more than I can afford to lose.  From the tone of some of these posts, it sounds like some people here maybe did not follow that cardinal rule.

[iammagicmike]

We all knew the risks when we bought (or gambled) with Avalon.  This is a fledgling industry where risks and rewards are high.  If I appear as though I don't care, you couldn't be more wrong.  It was a calculated risk that I took, and I accept whatever hand I am dealt based on the risk that I took.  Obviously, someone running away with my money is not within that acceptable risk, and Avalon is not doing that.  But delays are expected.  The other reason I am calm and patient is because the profit (or loss) from the 5 Avalons I bought are not more than I can afford to lose.  From the tone of some of these posts, it sounds like some people here maybe did not follow that cardinal rule.

Thank you for your reasonable explanation.  I completely agree.

[jspielberg]

I have a new shared spreadsheet and I didn't change wolfram's values. The numbers don't take into account any of the expected asic deliveries so it probably won't be accurate for more than a couple retargets.

Anyway, I thought I would share.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=236050.0

[creativex]

With the way Avalons overclock it should only take 8 - 10 weeks for a batch 3 original purchaser to see a positive return. Most 4 module Avalons will probably do 100 - 110Gh/s.

The doom and gloom is thick in here.  

[pikeadz]

Avalon should  think about refunding every customer of a B3 4 Module  Avalon 20 BTC and 15 BTC for every 3 Module Avalon.

They told us that the price was calculated on a 2-3 Months ROI. So the difficulty is way higher then it was before, so this sounds pretty fair to me.

Especially if they ship the chips out, before we get our units.

I agree that a pro-rated refund should be issued since the price in BTC was calculated via ROI/difficulty estimates based on original shipping time.

That would be a very kind gesture and go a long way when they start selling gen 2 ASICs.

+1

We all knew the risks when we bought (or gambled) with Avalon.  This is a fledgling industry where risks and rewards are high.  If I appear as though I don't care, you couldn't be more wrong.  It was a calculated risk that I took, and I accept whatever hand I am dealt based on the risk that I took.  Obviously, someone running away with my money is not within that acceptable risk, and Avalon is not doing that.  But delays are expected.

Delay of 2+ months would be expectable if Avalon just started and is about to ship batch 1. Since we speak about batch 3, such delay was not
expectable. Even Avalon did the math with numbers in May. They failed there, they made millions from Bitcoiners, so paying back some of bitcoins
would be smart gesture. It is not like it would make them homeless or something.

Of course it would be a nice, and probably smart gesture.  I am not going to turn down a partial refund.  However, they are not obligated to and I don't expect that.  A lot of people have lost confidence in their ability to do what they say they will do on many levels:  from development, packaging and delivery,  post-sale support, and professional customer service. 

That said, what makes you think that delays were not expected?  Because they did a batch 1 that took them months to get out the door?  I am sure there were tons of problems to iron out, and even more created in the process of ironing out those problems.  We're not dealing with tens of thousands of units.  Batch 1 was manually processed and laden with issues.  Batch 2 slightly better in some respects, but worse in others (like payment processor issues).   It's a complex process in a new industry involving many different parties with each batch, so yes, delays are expected. 

As an aside, I think it's funny how everyone thinks KNC Miner and all the other popup ASIC companies are going to be able to deliver without a hitch.  Should be an interesting next few months when the next wave of scams and delays starts to bubble up.

[jspielberg]

I am of the same opinion.

Some kind of "credit" for the delays would be nice, but unlikely/unexpected.

I do find it a little strange that the biggest problems with the second batch were non-technical (i.e. payment processing), which seems like they could have been handled easily piecemeal during the production delays.

[candoo]

We dont know anything about their production. They've just received a brand new SMT line.  Maybe  they still need to learn how to use it and to gain experience at troubleshooting.

Sadly, its not that easy as it sounds like.

[koob]

We dont know anything about their production. They've just received a brand new SMT line.  Maybe  they still need to learn how to use it and to gain experience at troubleshooting.

Sadly, its not that easy as it sounds like.

Each time new post pops in this thread i hope that someone from batch#3 is reporting tracking number :/
How much more it could take to start ?

[ftping]

We dont know anything about their production. They've just received a brand new SMT line.  Maybe  they still need to learn how to use it and to gain experience at troubleshooting.

Sadly, its not that easy as it sounds like.

Each time new post pops in this thread i hope that someone from batch#3 is reporting tracking number :/

Fuck, me too!!!!!!

[pikeadz]

We dont know anything about their production. They've just received a brand new SMT line.  Maybe  they still need to learn how to use it and to gain experience at troubleshooting.

Sadly, its not that easy as it sounds like.

Each time new post pops in this thread i hope that someone from batch#3 is reporting tracking number :/

Fuck, me too!!!!!!

I would like to formally announce that I..... have not received tracking yet. 

[jspielberg]

Me too!!! Congrats Pikeadz!


(Sorry... practicing)

[koob]

I would like to formally announce that I..... have not received tracking yet. 

Oh stop it and just receive it 

[koob]

Still no news about #3 ? #2 should be already shipped.

[Furious]

Still no news about #3 ? #2 should be already shipped.

not all shipped. have a bad track number. not delivered

[koob]

not all shipped. have a bad track number. not delivered

By shipped I meant went out from Bitsyncom.
No idea if u got wrong tracking number, but at least u have any. Maybe one letter missing or misspelled ? I read on this forum stories that ppl numbers appeared on tracking page AFTER they received package.

[Furious]

I got the email with tracking notification 29.06 (batch 2). Nothing delivered

[pikeadz]

I got the email with tracking notification 29.06 (batch 2). Nothing delivered

For our purposes, that is good enough.  It's not like they are going to delay batch 3 until every batch 2 unit arrives at its destination. 

[Milan77]

not all shipped. have a bad track number. not delivered

By shipped I meant went out from Bitsyncom.
No idea if u got wrong tracking number, but at least u have any. Maybe one letter missing or misspelled ? I read on this forum stories that ppl numbers appeared on tracking page AFTER they received package.

You would like bad shipping number? Here you go, have one... 8953266852.
So your Avalon is shipped now.