Can KNCMiner really deliver 28 nanometers?

[Anenome5]

If KNCMiner delivers 28 nm on the dates they've promised, I will buy a hat and eat it.
28 nm is state of the art for billion-dollar graphics card companies.

Thoughts?

It does seem awfully ambitious. Has Orsoc delivered 28 nm anything already?

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[mat542]

Yes, it's true...we were abducted!!

Unsurprisingly none of us paid the random to the group of hot blondes so they were reluctant to let us go, as were we!

Seriously though, I was there for the best part of 5 hours and the others were there earlier than me.

So I now have some accomodation and have some wifi as I'm in a bar and hell no I'm by even going to start typing a report up on an iPhone!

That said, they were all consumate professionals and total geeks. To put you all out of your misery I cannot see any of the other companies having access to the level of knowledge these guys can tap into. ORSoC are a bunch of very smart cookies and btw Mars is 5.1 Gh/s stock, and was running at 6.8 Gh/s today after some additional tweaking...oh and that's stable at 6.8gh/s much to Daggeto's delight, as it was his wallet this was proven to...

I asked every question sent to me, regardless of whether we had discussed it as I wanted to ensure you all had the answers you wanted. I also expanded on then where necessary. I now regret this as it's going to be a total ball-ache to type up. Almost certainly a two day ball ache, which is like 10 years in bitcointalk forum time, so sit tight I'm afraid.

Long and short these guys are the real deal. Sam and Andreas are v.professional and have handled a mountain of administration to get this far. Sam is up 4.30am every morning. Marcus is a superstar, even if he's a pissed off superstar on camera. Super competitive, they want this, genuinely. I'll tell more later, but I won't make promises for them, all I will say is they really aim to over deliver and the only thing they want to be held to is;

28nm - 350gh/s, 175gh/s - September 2013.

In the meantime, it's another round of pear cider, skål!

Source

Even if they are not on-time, I feel like there will be no lies and that they will immediately explain why. Not like BFL that is continuously lying.

[Anenome5]

Yes, it's true...we were abducted!!

Unsurprisingly none of us paid the random to the group of hot blondes so they were reluctant to let us go, as were we!

Seriously though, I was there for the best part of 5 hours and the others were there earlier than me.

So I now have some accomodation and have some wifi as I'm in a bar and hell no I'm by even going to start typing a report up on an iPhone!

That said, they were all consumate professionals and total geeks. To put you all out of your misery I cannot see any of the other companies having access to the level of knowledge these guys can tap into. ORSoC are a bunch of very smart cookies and btw Mars is 5.1 Gh/s stock, and was running at 6.8 Gh/s today after some additional tweaking...oh and that's stable at 6.8gh/s much to Daggeto's delight, as it was his wallet this was proven to...

I asked every question sent to me, regardless of whether we had discussed it as I wanted to ensure you all had the answers you wanted. I also expanded on then where necessary. I now regret this as it's going to be a total ball-ache to type up. Almost certainly a two day ball ache, which is like 10 years in bitcointalk forum time, so sit tight I'm afraid.

Long and short these guys are the real deal. Sam and Andreas are v.professional and have handled a mountain of administration to get this far. Sam is up 4.30am every morning. Marcus is a superstar, even if he's a pissed off superstar on camera. Super competitive, they want this, genuinely. I'll tell more later, but I won't make promises for them, all I will say is they really aim to over deliver and the only thing they want to be held to is;

28nm - 350gh/s, 175gh/s - September 2013.

In the meantime, it's another round of pear cider, skål!

Source

Even if they are not on-time, I feel like there will be no lies and that they will immediately explain why. Not like BFL that is continuously lying.

Great, that was brilliant, informative, and prompt!

I know Avalon, ASICMiner, and BFL have intimated that ASICs in the 28nm range weren't likely to appear until late next year. KNC is upping the bar considerably.

[J35st3r]

But its been hinted that KNCMiner are doing a 28nM Structured ASIC, ie a HardCopy(tm) of an Altera FPGA design. That's much cheaper in up-front cost (the mask set is just the metalization/vias so much cheaper), but the per-unit cost is higher. It won't perform anything like a full custom ASIC.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=228068.msg2433194#msg2433194 (and subsequent posts).

[suryc]

But its been hinted that KNCMiner are doing a 28nM Structured ASIC, ie a HardCopy(tm) of an Altera FPGA design. That's much cheaper in up-front cost (the mask set is just the metalization/vias so much cheaper), but the per-unit cost is higher. It won't perform anything like a full custom ASIC.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=228068.msg2433194#msg2433194 (and subsequent posts).

Yup, they've hinted that in the Open Days and it seems OrSoc has some experience with that:
http://opencores.org/forum,OpenRISC%20-%20ASIC%20Funding,0,5039

[sikman]

Personally don't care how small they get the chips down, I JUST WANT ONE NOW, even at 200nm, I need to mine before diff skyrockets...

[kevcoins]

Personally don't care how small they get the chips down, I JUST WANT ONE NOW, even at 200nm, I need to mine before diff skyrockets...

Sorry no next day delivery, I wish they were..

[blastbob]

For those who is interested.

[af_newbie]

Re: Can KNCMiner really deliver 28 nanometers?

Sure   They can even go pure-play while at it.

It is like learning computer programming for the first time; in binary 

Remember, first you have to walk before you run.

[GigaWave]

Personally don't care how small they get the chips down, I JUST WANT ONE NOW, even at 200nm, I need to mine before diff skyrockets...

You should know this by now, as the coming increase in difficulty has been covered quite extensively at this point and many new players have entered the game in the past 6 months. But I will digress. The Ship to give you a chance at looking like your avatar sailed about 7 months ago. At this point you will be lucky to break even within a year with likely any orders placed in the past few months.

[Syke]

If KNCMiner delivers 28 nm on the dates they've promised, I will buy a hat and eat it.
28 nm is state of the art for billion-dollar graphics card companies.

Thoughts?

It does seem awfully ambitious. Has Orsoc delivered 28 nm anything already?

There's no way they'll finish up a 28nm miner by September.

[MWNinja]

If they had chips in hand now (like bitfury does) then I would say they might have products ready to ship in September. My hunch is that it will be early next year before they have chips.

[J35st3r]

There's no way they'll finish up a 28nm miner by September.

Well, they might if they are going the HardCopy route (possibly intending to go full custom for second-gen). But that's been scotched by the email from Sam Cole posted above.

PS which "specific product" was he referring to? This might be a a little bit of fudge.

[DPoS]

There's no way they'll finish up a 28nm miner by September.

Well, they might if they are going the HardCopy route (possibly intending to go full custom for second-gen). But that's been scotched by the email from Sam Cole posted above.

PS which "specific product" was he referring to? This might be a a little bit of fudge.

what he said was that for jupiter/saturn they won't be using structured asic, this is a project to get out the door ASAP.

with all the great experts posting in these threads, I doubt you all even know all the ways to make an ASIC and the leadtimes.
I don't know either but I will guess that kncminer/orsoc does

Everyone has to stop thinking that BFL/Avalon were experts and ignore a lot of what they tripped on.

[J35st3r]

what he said was that for jupiter/saturn they won't be using structured asic, this is a project to get out the door ASAP.

with all the great experts posting in these threads, I doubt you all even know all the ways to make an ASIC and the leadtimes.
I don't know either but I will guess that kncminer/orsoc does

Yeah, I admit I'm not an expert, though I was in the biz around 20 years ago, so the terminology is not unfamiliar. But there are some real experts on the forum, so perhaps one will be along shortly to give an opinion.

BTW HardCopy is indeed a very good option to get a project "out the door ASAP".

[Anenome5]

If they had chips in hand now (like bitfury does) then I would say they might have products ready to ship in September. My hunch is that it will be early next year before they have chips.

Apparently the chips are in production right now. We know the design has been finalized. They then ship the chips to their PCB assembler and have lets say a few weeks to organize shipping. Seems doable. We're thinking in a time-frame that's likely much shorter than what these guys put together. They might've been working on this for a year and have long-range time commitments long-since setup, whereas we're only aware of the effort last few months tops, so it seems incredible that they're essentially pulling these out of a hat, but that may not be the case at all.

[af_newbie]

Apparently the chips are in production right now. We know the design has been finalized. They then ship the chips to their PCB assembler and ...

Go back and do it again?  Ask BFL how easy it is to go from FPGA to 65nm, so forget 28nm from KNC.

[k9quaint]

Apparently the chips are in production right now. We know the design has been finalized. They then ship the chips to their PCB assembler and ...

Go back and do it again?  Ask BFL how easy it is to go from FPGA to 65nm, so forget 28nm from KNC.

Ask http://orsoc.se/ how hard it is, apparently they have been working on it in parallel with KNCMiner developing the PCB and mining device.

[DPoS]

Apparently the chips are in production right now. We know the design has been finalized. They then ship the chips to their PCB assembler and ...

Go back and do it again?  Ask BFL how easy it is to go from FPGA to 65nm, so forget 28nm from KNC.

Ask http://orsoc.se/ how hard it is, apparently they have been working on it in parallel with KNCMiner developing the PCB and mining device.

this seems the path they took... I guess the easy button wasn't found by BFL

http://www.altera.com/devices/asic/hardcopy-asics/hardcopy-v/hcv-index.jsp

http://www.altera.com/devices/asic/hardcopy-asics/about/hrd-index.html

28nm was avilable in 2010 (probably more expensive than now)

[Anenome5]

Apparently the chips are in production right now. We know the design has been finalized. They then ship the chips to their PCB assembler and ...

Go back and do it again?  Ask BFL how easy it is to go from FPGA to 65nm, so forget 28nm from KNC.

You really think Orsoc is going to make rookie mistakes like that, like BFL made? Come on.

[KS]

a quick read on the diffs between standard cell and structured ASICs.

http://www.edn.com/design/systems-design/4319891/The-economics-of-structured-and-standard-cell-ASIC-designs

[Syke]

You really think Orsoc is going to make rookie mistakes like that, like BFL made? Come on.

How much experience does Orsoc really have producing 28nm chips? I glanced around their website and the only chip I could find they designed was 180nm.

It's not just rookie mistakes. Designing state-of-the-art chips takes serious time. You don't just whip one up as a summer project.

[DPoS]

You really think Orsoc is going to make rookie mistakes like that, like BFL made? Come on.

How much experience does Orsoc really have producing 28nm chips? I glanced around their website and the only chip I could find they designed was 180nm.

It's not just rookie mistakes. Designing state-of-the-art chips takes serious time. You don't just whip one up as a summer project.

did you skip my links?

[J35st3r]

a quick read on the diffs between standard cell and structured ASICs.

http://www.edn.com/design/systems-design/4319891/The-economics-of-structured-and-standard-cell-ASIC-designs

Fantastic, thanks. Just what I've been looking for to understand this. And I agree, given the tight timescales KNCMiner would be foolish to have gone directly to standard-cell (and they are not fools), Marketing, however, is another ball game entirely  

PS I shall add an observation from this paper. All the current chip vendors (Avalon, BFL, not sure about ASICMiner) went down the standard cell ASIC route, which was the correct decision given the volumes expected. However they are all still at the prototype stage (including all those shipped Avalons). There has not yet been the time to fully characterise the chips and move to volume production (12 to 26 weeks). Perhaps this explains the Avalon chip delays and BFL's nightmare of poor thermal performance. Also, heads up, Bitfury.

Would love to hear your thoughts KS, etc.

[KS]

a quick read on the diffs between standard cell and structured ASICs.

http://www.edn.com/design/systems-design/4319891/The-economics-of-structured-and-standard-cell-ASIC-designs

Fantastic, thanks. Just what I've been looking for to understand this. And I agree, given the tight timescales KNCMiner would be foolish to have gone directly to standard-cell (and they are not fools), Marketing, however, is another ball game entirely  

PS I shall add an observation from this paper. All the current chip vendors (Avalon, BFL, not sure about ASICMiner) went down the standard cell ASIC route, which was the correct decision given the volumes expected. However they are all still at the prototype stage (including all those shipped Avalons). There has not yet been the time to fully characterise the chips and move to volume production (12 to 26 weeks). Perhaps this explains the Avalon chip delays and BFL's nightmare of poor thermal performance. Also, heads up, Bitfury.

Would love to hear your thoughts KS, etc.

Where do you get Avalon is still at the prototype stage? Is it the 10 weeks schedule?

[J35st3r]

Where do you get Avalon is still at the prototype stage? Is it the 10 weeks schedule?

I'm basing it on the timescale since their first product shipment back in April (was it?). Assume this was their first prototype chips (or first working ones anyway), they want to get to public testing ASAP, hence ship first two Avalons. Possibly have enough chips to start rest of batch1 (especially if some wafers were held back in the fab). Full characterisation (12-26 weeks according to the article, though 2006 vintage). Which puts us slap bang around now for completion of that phase and move to full production. Its just a theory anyway, but they certainly did a much smoother job than BFL who must still be at the start of characterisation, even though shipping the Jallies.

[johnyj]

From some source:

"However, the basic premise of a structured ASIC is that both manufacturing cycle time and design cycle time are reduced compared to cell-based ASIC, by virtue of there being pre-defined metal layers (thus reducing manufacturing time) and pre-characterization of what is on the silicon (thus reducing design cycle time). "

I remember that I asked if they are going to use structured ASIC during the open day, but it seems that Marcus think the standard cell ASIC is a better deal, I'm not an expert in this area, but based on public knowledge, the standard cell ASIC solution is both slower and more expensive, why did they come up with such a decision?

[J35st3r]

I remember that I asked if they are going to use structured ASIC during the open day, but it seems that Marcus think the standard cell ASIC is a better deal, I'm not an expert in this area, but based on public knowledge, the standard cell ASIC solution is both slower and more expensive, why did they come up with such a decision?

I'm not sure that is right. Standard Cell will be faster, more efficient (much less silicon real estate, faster clock), and cheaper to produce on a per-unit basis then Structured (HardCopy). The downside is much more expensive NRE (design and mask set), longer production times (since not using stock base wafers). and more complex characterisation of the prototypes, hence longer delay to full production.
Also bigger risk of needing design rework (see BFL).

But that's just from my reading of KS's linked article above (and a little insider knowledge from 20 years back).

[KS]

I remember that I asked if they are going to use structured ASIC during the open day, but it seems that Marcus think the standard cell ASIC is a better deal, I'm not an expert in this area, but based on public knowledge, the standard cell ASIC solution is both slower and more expensive, why did they come up with such a decision?

I'm not sure that is right. Standard Cell will be faster, more efficient (much less silicon real estate, faster clock), and cheaper to produce on a per-unit basis then Structured (HardCopy). The downside is much more expensive NRE (design and mask set), longer production times (since not using stock base wafers). and more complex characterisation of the prototypes, hence longer delay to full production.
Also bigger risk of needing design rework (see BFL).

But that's just from my reading of KS's linked article above (and a little insider knowledge from 20 years back).

What I don't get is the bit where they only work on the FPGA and let the (as yet unknown) ASIC maker complete the standard cell process for them and they are going straight to production. No prototype, no revision, bam, production. That sounds awfully stupid to me.

Also, they claimed they had to delay the open day because the Mars proto wasn't finished and they had to work on the code.

Knowing they run their mouth, on occasion (hmmm, right ), any of this might also be BS/FUD. 

Maybe eASIC has finally started their 28nm process. It's cell-based and FPGA agnostic. Maybe that's what they _mean_ by standard-cell.

[J35st3r]

What I don't get is the bit where they only work on the FPGA and let the (as yet unknown) ASIC maker complete the standard cell process for them and they are going straight to production. No prototype, no revision, bam, production. That sounds awfully stupid to me.

But this is exactly what Avalon and BFL have done. And it makes sense, from a marketing point of view. But not on the engineering side (apart from letting the experts do the custom design, which is essential). The custom ASIC business has been plagued by over-optimism from customers (ie the likes of BFL and Avalon, not end users) since the very beginning. Many tears have been shed when projects went over-time and over-budget. The current BFL fiasco was quite typical back in my time.

And it seems KNCMiner have to play exactly the same marketing game to stand any chance in this business (cannot wait the 12 months to do the job properly, hence "no prototype, no revision, bam, production". Yes it is stupid, but its the only way they can compete in the game. If they pull it off (Avalon, ASICMiner), good for them, but its risky (BFL). All these delays and the lack of communication from all of the players is to be expected (they may be in the dark themselves). This is rocketscience after all!

[af_newbie]

cannot wait the 12 months to do the job properly, hence "no prototype, no revision, bam, production". Yes it is stupid, but...

They will use YOUR money to try this out (if they'll even bother with it)
Things would be different if they had to put up their hard earned BTCs on the line.

So don't fret, if something does not work, they will announce another, more powerful model, let say 100TH/s @ 15K each.
Rinse, flush and repeat.

[titomane]

a quick read on the diffs between standard cell and structured ASICs.

http://www.edn.com/design/systems-design/4319891/The-economics-of-structured-and-standard-cell-ASIC-designs

Thanks my friend

[rammy2k2]

If KNCMiner delivers 28 nm on the dates they've promised, I will buy a hat and eat it.
28 nm is state of the art for billion-dollar graphics card companies.

Thoughts?

It does seem awfully ambitious. Has Orsoc delivered 28 nm anything already?

Lets wait first and see if they can deliver anything but that huge FPGA

[KS]

If KNCMiner delivers 28 nm on the dates they've promised, I will buy a hat and eat it.
28 nm is state of the art for billion-dollar graphics card companies.

Thoughts?

It does seem awfully ambitious. Has Orsoc delivered 28 nm anything already?

Lets wait first and see if they can deliver anything but that huge FPGA

That doesn't look too good right now. They talk a big game but the execution (on the public side) has been piss poor so far. They sure aren't setup as a business yet and the production is a big gamble. Let's hope for the early investors that it won't be a big FAIL. At least with the Mars you had sth to mine while waiting for the Jupiter. Now, no only have you parted with your money but you don't get any BTC in return either, for, if you're lucky, the next 2.5-4.5 months.

[DPoS]

If KNCMiner delivers 28 nm on the dates they've promised, I will buy a hat and eat it.
28 nm is state of the art for billion-dollar graphics card companies.

Thoughts?

It does seem awfully ambitious. Has Orsoc delivered 28 nm anything already?

Lets wait first and see if they can deliver anything but that huge FPGA

That doesn't look too good right now. They talk a big game but the execution (on the public side) has been piss poor so far. They sure aren't setup as a business yet and the production is a big gamble. Let's hope for the early investors that it won't be a big FAIL. At least with the Mars you had sth to mine while waiting for the Jupiter. Now, no only have you parted with your money but you don't get any BTC in return either, for, if you're lucky, the next 2.5-4.5 months.

there is a lot of fail FUD here..  they are doing the earl scheib of 28nm ASIC

will it look wonky?  sure,  will it be completed fast, sure

BFL fucked themselves with trying to make it look Apple pretty form factor..  kncminer probably doesn't care if you have to assemble it on your pool table

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PtjdHaMeiiQ&feature=player_embedded

and if you act now you will get free Polyurethane!@!

[KS]

If KNCMiner delivers 28 nm on the dates they've promised, I will buy a hat and eat it.
28 nm is state of the art for billion-dollar graphics card companies.

Thoughts?

It does seem awfully ambitious. Has Orsoc delivered 28 nm anything already?

Lets wait first and see if they can deliver anything but that huge FPGA

That doesn't look too good right now. They talk a big game but the execution (on the public side) has been piss poor so far. They sure aren't setup as a business yet and the production is a big gamble. Let's hope for the early investors that it won't be a big FAIL. At least with the Mars you had sth to mine while waiting for the Jupiter. Now, no only have you parted with your money but you don't get any BTC in return either, for, if you're lucky, the next 2.5-4.5 months.

there is a lot of fail FUD here..  they are doing the earl scheib of 28nm ASIC

will it look wonky?  sure,  will it be completed fast, sure

BFL fucked themselves with trying to make it look Apple pretty form factor..  kncminer probably doesn't care if you have to assemble it on your pool table

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PtjdHaMeiiQ&feature=player_embedded

and if you act now you will get free Polyurethane!@!

Too much greed and wishful thinking and not enough looking at the facts.

Too much BS, too many shill accounts. Company misrepresentation, lack of funding, disregard for their customers (don't tell me they give a fuck one way or another after the ordering circus they created, they're just greedy too).

At this point it's a matter of Ethics, and I find them lacking in that department.

[newmars]

I also think it is a pity to cancel the Mars

If KNCMiner delivers 28 nm on the dates they've promised, I will buy a hat and eat it.
28 nm is state of the art for billion-dollar graphics card companies.

Thoughts?

It does seem awfully ambitious. Has Orsoc delivered 28 nm anything already?

Lets wait first and see if they can deliver anything but that huge FPGA

That doesn't look too good right now. They talk a big game but the execution (on the public side) has been piss poor so far. They sure aren't setup as a business yet and the production is a big gamble. Let's hope for the early investors that it won't be a big FAIL. At least with the Mars you had sth to mine while waiting for the Jupiter. Now, no only have you parted with your money but you don't get any BTC in return either, for, if you're lucky, the next 2.5-4.5 months.

[Bitcoinorama]

Update: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=232852.msg2468045#msg2468045

[J35st3r]

Update: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=232852.msg2468045#msg2468045

My takeaway from that ...

There is no wafer test.

There is no packaged chip test.

They are simply going to solder the chips on the boards and hope any defects are not fatal (ie unusable boards).

Their yield had better be pretty good for that strategy to work.

 (Disclosure, my first job in ASIC industry: test engineer, though things may well have come on a bit in the last 30 years). (Ignore, argument from authority).

PS What is so difficult about the packaged chip test? At the very least measure the supply current to exclude the meltdown risks and run just a few test vectors through them to check the I/O protocol works. They are in way too much of a hurry to get product shipped.

PPS "The chip manufacturer I believe is chosen today. Sam was quite matter of fact about how they aim to hit September,"
... nothing more needs to be said. Read it and weep.

[DPoS]

actually I am glad they are throwing all the chips in and flooring it.. why the fuck not..  it's all a gamble

go big or go home!!!

[dan99]

with so many skeptics and non believers, how many would bet they will not deliver in September and how many believe they can do it and deliver in September.??

[KS]

with so many skeptics and non believers, how many would bet they will not deliver in September and how many believe they can do it and deliver in September.??

I think the topic is rather "can they deliver at all", rather than "can they deliver in September or later".

They have taken a lot of risk and made what looks like bad decisions. Maybe (hopefully for early adopters) they'll pull it off, but their timing is not looking too good. We're talking at least 10 weeks delay from the start of the chip production - which AFAIK hasn't started yet. 10 weeks is a very short lead time. What if it becomes 14 weeks, 18 weeks?

The reason Avalon is a safer bet now is because it's a proven design with a proven 10 weeks lead time (ASICs, not full miners obv.). And we're talking about a 7mm*7mm chip, a 70mm*70mm one like for KNCMINER. That thing is so huge than the yield will probably never be very high (I think they would consider themselves lucky at 70% - rear end fugee number) and that why they HAVE to have a defect management solution in software, otherwise they would just throw away a lot of the ASICs.

This is not religion where blind faith is required, though bigots will be bigots.

[rograz]

I thought the first rule in the tech industry was to always expect delays. If I get my unit before nov/dec I will be pleasantly surprised.

[FlappySocks]

with so many skeptics and non believers, how many would bet they will not deliver in September and how many believe they can do it and deliver in September.??

Lets bow down to KNCMiner, for they deliver us in September.

Believers.... believers..... let us pray for the skeptics.... thy miners will be done.

[dan99]

with so many skeptics and non believers, how many would bet they will not deliver in September and how many believe they can do it and deliver in September.??

Lets bow down to KNCMiner, for they deliver us in September.

Believers.... believers..... let us pray for the skeptics.... thy miners will be done.

Nice Video

[J35st3r]

Believers.... believers..... let us pray for the skeptics.... thy miners will be done.

That image is just way too big. Have a thought for us poor souls browsing on a Raspberry Pi  

[FlappySocks]

Nice Video

It's a young Sting in the film Brimstone and Treacle.

[Anenome5]

And we're talking about a 7mm*7mm chip, a 70mm*70mm one like for KNCMINER. That thing is so huge than the yield will probably never be very high (I think they would consider themselves lucky at 70% - rear end fugee number) and that why they HAVE to have a defect management solution in software, otherwise they would just throw away a lot of the ASICs.

Can't you just modularize the unit and plan to have a certain break-down on average? I mean, ASICs like this Jupiter device are already going to have a looot of chips in it anyway. That creates a certain arbitrage opportunity of sorts. Say you can reasonably expect a 70% yield, then you promise a device with 70% of X number of chips theoretical capacity. That way you're virtually guaranteed to get the device you want.

This is not like trying to create an Intel CPU where the end-user wants one damn good chip and only really one and high yield is especially important.

Then, as I said, you modularize the chip, building it in units such that if a unit fails you simply turn it off and route around it so that the entire chip itself isn't sour. Sony did this with the PS3 Cell-chip, built in 8 units and assuming that 1 would be failed typically, meaning an 87.5% yield expected. Some chips with 8 units working still deactivated one unit just to remain consistent! But with an ASIC you wouldn't bother with that, you'd just take the extra performance. And the result is their promise +/- 10% was it, or 5%? Anyway, that's my uneducated guess of how things are going to go.

[KS]

And we're talking about a 7mm*7mm chip, a 70mm*70mm one like for KNCMINER. That thing is so huge than the yield will probably never be very high (I think they would consider themselves lucky at 70% - rear end fugee number) and that why they HAVE to have a defect management solution in software, otherwise they would just throw away a lot of the ASICs.

Can't you just modularize the unit and plan to have a certain break-down on average? I mean, ASICs like this Jupiter device are already going to have a looot of chips in it anyway. That creates a certain arbitrage opportunity of sorts. Say you can reasonably expect a 70% yield, then you promise a device with 70% of X number of chips theoretical capacity. That way you're virtually guaranteed to get the device you want.

This is not like trying to create an Intel CPU where the end-user wants one damn good chip and only really one and high yield is especially important.

Then, as I said, you modularize the chip, building it in units such that if a unit fails you simply turn it off and route around it so that the entire chip itself isn't sour. Sony did this with the PS3 Cell-chip, built in 8 units and assuming that 1 would be failed typically, meaning an 87.5% yield expected. Some chips with 8 units working still deactivated one unit just to remain consistent! But with an ASIC you wouldn't bother with that, you'd just take the extra performance. And the result is their promise +/- 10% was it, or 5%? Anyway, that's my uneducated guess of how things are going to go.

I think that's what they are doing. With chips that big they will probably have a lot of defects and they have to deal with it at runtime. i guess the idea is either to make very small chips and trash the non-functioning ones or build them very big and switch off the bad bits.

Depending on the expected fab yields, one way might be better than the other.

It's the wonderful wait and see time. Alea jacta est, nothing we can do about it now.

[Bitcoinorama]

And we're talking about a 7mm*7mm chip, a 70mm*70mm one like for KNCMINER. That thing is so huge than the yield will probably never be very high (I think they would consider themselves lucky at 70% - rear end fugee number) and that why they HAVE to have a defect management solution in software, otherwise they would just throw away a lot of the ASICs.

Can't you just modularize the unit and plan to have a certain break-down on average? I mean, ASICs like this Jupiter device are already going to have a looot of chips in it anyway. That creates a certain arbitrage opportunity of sorts. Say you can reasonably expect a 70% yield, then you promise a device with 70% of X number of chips theoretical capacity. That way you're virtually guaranteed to get the device you want.

This is not like trying to create an Intel CPU where the end-user wants one damn good chip and only really one and high yield is especially important.

Then, as I said, you modularize the chip, building it in units such that if a unit fails you simply turn it off and route around it so that the entire chip itself isn't sour. Sony did this with the PS3 Cell-chip, built in 8 units and assuming that 1 would be failed typically, meaning an 87.5% yield expected. Some chips with 8 units working still deactivated one unit just to remain consistent! But with an ASIC you wouldn't bother with that, you'd just take the extra performance. And the result is their promise +/- 10% was it, or 5%? Anyway, that's my uneducated guess of how things are going to go.

For this initial revision this is what I came away with understanding.

If you buy now, you will get what was promised, but immediately after the design will be revisited and improved upon.

Future buyers will be given greater efficiency and more bang for their buck as Marcus, Michael, Yann and Henrik will demonstrate with Mars over the coming days, but for those now, it's about beating hashrate and delivering in September.

The guys are very confident they have minimised risks as there is no room for error with this initial waffer!

[peetah]

No.

[dogie]

If you don't get your unit until middle/end of august, you won't see your money back. That's not great odds.

[Bitcoinorama]

If you don't get your unit until middle/end of august, you won't see your money back. That's not great odds.

BS.

[KS]

If you don't get your unit until middle/end of august, you won't see your money back. That's not great odds.

BS.

both o' yous

[innovation]

It is a challenge to both kncminer and us.

[Anenome5]

If you don't get your unit until middle/end of august, you won't see your money back. That's not great odds.

Lol, where do you get this idea o_O The Jupiter miner would still make a marginal profit if the difficulty were 1 billion.

[idee2013]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=228068.msg2478522#msg2478522

[testerx]

But its been hinted that KNCMiner are doing a 28nM Structured ASIC, ie a HardCopy(tm) of an Altera FPGA design. That's much cheaper in up-front cost (the mask set is just the metalization/vias so much cheaper), but the per-unit cost is higher. It won't perform anything like a full custom ASIC.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=228068.msg2433194#msg2433194 (and subsequent posts).

My concern is that they're making very lofty performance claims but if it's just an ASIC copy of the FPGA it's not likely to outperform the FPGA crazy significantly.  I'm not sure where they're getting all this extra performance per watt from, are they solely depending on the fact that it's 28nm?  I'm just worried it'll be another repeat of BFL's power estimates.  They might be able to get 350Ghash but I doubt it's going to be come at the low watts they're quoting. 

[DPoS]

But its been hinted that KNCMiner are doing a 28nM Structured ASIC, ie a HardCopy(tm) of an Altera FPGA design. That's much cheaper in up-front cost (the mask set is just the metalization/vias so much cheaper), but the per-unit cost is higher. It won't perform anything like a full custom ASIC.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=228068.msg2433194#msg2433194 (and subsequent posts).

My concern is that they're making very lofty performance claims but if it's just an ASIC copy of the FPGA it's not likely to outperform the FPGA crazy significantly.  I'm not sure where they're getting all this extra performance per watt from, are they solely depending on the fact that it's 28nm?  I'm just worried it'll be another repeat of BFL's power estimates.  They might be able to get 350Ghash but I doubt it's going to be come at the low watts they're quoting. 

that's why i hedged and got 2 saturns..  figured i'd be able to plug in one of them at the least and sell the other if i must

crazy how much cloudhashing just said they are buying..  35TH of the stuff.. if the power is way off that scales off the charts

[Anenome5]

But its been hinted that KNCMiner are doing a 28nM Structured ASIC, ie a HardCopy(tm) of an Altera FPGA design. That's much cheaper in up-front cost (the mask set is just the metalization/vias so much cheaper), but the per-unit cost is higher. It won't perform anything like a full custom ASIC.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=228068.msg2433194#msg2433194 (and subsequent posts).

My concern is that they're making very lofty performance claims but if it's just an ASIC copy of the FPGA it's not likely to outperform the FPGA crazy significantly.  I'm not sure where they're getting all this extra performance per watt from, are they solely depending on the fact that it's 28nm?  I'm just worried it'll be another repeat of BFL's power estimates.  They might be able to get 350Ghash but I doubt it's going to be come at the low watts they're quoting. 

I'm not sure I understand your meaning. ASICs are much faster and more efficient than FPGAs. Nothing they've claimed is outside the realm of reality for a non-structured ASIC such as they claim to be using. It's just a real ASIC.

[J35st3r]

But its been hinted that KNCMiner are doing a 28nM Structured ASIC, ie a HardCopy(tm) of an Altera FPGA design. That's much cheaper in up-front cost (the mask set is just the metalization/vias so much cheaper), but the per-unit cost is higher. It won't perform anything like a full custom ASIC.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=228068.msg2433194#msg2433194 (and subsequent posts).

My concern is that they're making very lofty performance claims but if it's just an ASIC copy of the FPGA it's not likely to outperform the FPGA crazy significantly.  I'm not sure where they're getting all this extra performance per watt from, are they solely depending on the fact that it's 28nm?  I'm just worried it'll be another repeat of BFL's power estimates.  They might be able to get 350Ghash but I doubt it's going to be come at the low watts they're quoting. 

I'm not sure I understand your meaning. ASICs are much faster and more efficient than FPGAs. Nothing they've claimed is outside the realm of reality for a non-structured ASIC such as they claim to be using. It's just a real ASIC.

I agree. A Structured ASIC whould have little performance gain over the base FPGA part (its essentially the same device, but with the programming hard-wired in), but would have lower unit cost. A full custom ASIC is an entirely different beastie, and at 28nm would expect at least a factor of 2 performance gain over BFL (not quite sure how it scales, ChipGeek will know).

I feel rather sorry I brought up this Structured ASIC hypothesis now as its pretty clear from KNCMiner statements that this is wrong (though I was only quoting what had been said elsewhere). I do stand by my comments that their timescale is extremely ambitious and the lack of a test strategy at wafer/package level is very worrying. (And my thanks to ChipGeek for his comments above.)

[KS]

I feel rather sorry I brought up this Structured ASIC hypothesis now as its pretty clear from KNCMiner statements that this is wrong (though I was only quoting what had been said elsewhere). I do stand by my comments that their timescale is extremely ambitious and the lack of a test strategy at wafer/package level is very worrying. (And my thanks to ChipGeek for his comments above.)

You make your idea on available information. Pretty much everything pointed at structured ASIC.

I'm still not convinced about the September release (maybe they'll sell the sample chips in a miner as retail )

[slicko]

really !

[Bitcoinorama]

Uh huh, except everyone on the open day met me...

Plus there's video to come, more Q&A, in addition I'm happy to post my flight boarding passes (minus personal info). On top of which, there's the fact I haven't been paid, bar 4-5 tips equal to a drink from forum members.

Still, feel free to troll, which is what everyone of your posts on every topic have been this far...largely I'll-informed as well, but that's just laziness, right?? How's the megastore btw? Wasn't looking too impressive last I checked, perhaps you should concentrate on something constructive? Just sayin'...

Oh and in case you've missed the part (likely, as you've missed everything else) where I've repeatedly said I will never advise anyone to do anything other than to do their own research, I'm saying it again. I'm just sharing my own research. The only recommendation I can make is visit for yourself. The door's open.

You won't though will you? Wayy easier to speculate and spread BS.

[szmarco]

policeman appears....

[Bitcoinorama]

Uh huh, except everyone on the open day met me...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmPD_YSQ--k

You can not fool me. I'm dealing with crime and scam for over 20 years now, online and offline, and your profile is crystal clear to me.

You can not fool me. I'm dealing with crime and scam for over 20 years now, online and offline, and your profile is crystal clear to me.

You're an idiot. ORSoC is a real engineering firm. They make and for the past decade have been making FPGAs, ASICs and other projects to tender to real paying clients. On the side they open soure projects. They have made the worlds first open source graphics card, want to make the worlds first open source CPU, they have a freakin' robotic arm they built in their showroom. They own the worlds largest open source community; opencores.org. Making something like a bitcoin miner for them is an opportunity, and as they see it a formula one race, but it's no where near as difficult as anything they have created in the past. It's doing it by September that's the challenge.

My posting history starts with me calling out ASICrigs.com, and then the infamous Cedartec I saw the potential in KnC as soon as they confirmed ORSoC.

If you ever were in a position of authority in the past, that's worrying!

[KS]

I saw the potential in KnC as soon as they confirmed ORSoC.

(facepalm)

SO, did you pay for that Jupiter miner you ordered finally or not? You still haven't answered the question.

[Bitcoinorama]

The fact that you are so easy on attacking my business (failed thread derail) because I attacked you reveals your business here, dumbass.

Ok cool, just as long as you never made detective...!

[DPoS]

bitcoin megastore calling anyone a shillscam   

what the hell is your 'store' ?
 

[Anenome5]

I think Bitcoinrama is paid shill. He shown no expertise in anything but posting bullshits, a lot of them. He jumped on promoting KNC and bashing BFL just few days after he joined this forum, doing it...

Meh, there's plenty of room for people to simply be enthusiastic, fan-style, and defending. Bitcoinorama is the polar opposite of KS in this respect, but I'm not about to diss KS as being a paid critic.

When dealing with unknowns, everyone is dealing not in the realm of deductions but inductions, of what is likely. Bitcoin falls on one side of that spectrum--and I happen to agree with him--and KS on the other. Both are healthy and productive voices to add to the conversation.

I've seen nothing from either to indicate anything other than that each simply has different levels of concerns about the company.

And BFL has done a lot to earn everyone's ire. It's not like anyone needs to be paid to diss BFL these days.

[RoadStress]

The fact that you are easy on attacking my business (failed thread derail) because I attacked you (not KNC) reveals your business here, dumbass.

This is only Inaba's fault lol!

[CoinHoarder]

Kncminer is the next BFL. "Shipping in 4-6 weeks"

You heard it here first.  

I'm not going to order nothing from these guys, I don't trust them further than I can throw them.

I think their shipping timeline and power consumption rates are way overly optimistic.

[KS]

I think Bitcoinrama is paid shill. He shown no expertise in anything but posting bullshits, a lot of them. He jumped on promoting KNC and bashing BFL just few days after he joined this forum, doing it...

Meh, there's plenty of room for people to simply be enthusiastic, fan-style, and defending. Bitcoinorama is the polar opposite of KS in this respect, but I'm not about to diss KS as being a paid critic.

When dealing with unknowns, everyone is dealing not in the realm of deductions but inductions, of what is likely. Bitcoin falls on one side of that spectrum--and I happen to agree with him--and KS on the other. Both are healthy and productive voices to add to the conversation.

I've seen nothing from either to indicate anything other than that each simply has different levels of concerns about the company.

And BFL has done a lot to earn everyone's ire. It's not like anyone needs to be paid to diss BFL these days.

Oh but Bitcoinorama is a *total* KNCMINER shill. He's just basking in the glory right now.

[KS]

I've seen nothing from either to indicate anything other than that each simply has different levels of concerns about the company.

I don't think he's concerned. His BS radar is completely switched off when it comes to them and I don't think he knows what it takes to successfully run a business.

I think he's fixated on the R&D and plays the ORSoC card continuously. I'm trying to show that it's only a part of the equation, but that doesn't seem to resonate.

Anyway, as I said before, the train has left the station, so we just wait to see what KNCMINER will do for the money.

[CoinHoarder]

People like to use OSRoC involvement as a reason why Kncminer is legit and going to do what they say they are. I agree they are likely making an ASIC and not a complete scam, however their promises of shipping time and power consumption seem like they'll be hard to keep.

Anyone that thinks that BFL didn't use an ASIC design company as reputable (or more reputable) than OSRoC is fooling themselves. Also, kncminer is using newer tech than BFL, which is more difficult to design and develop. Both companies are using newer tech than ASICMINER / Avalon and both companies are going to run into their share of complications. Except you just haven't seen the complications that Kncminer will run into yet because they're just getting started... they will come IMO.

[jspielberg]

It is also possible that BFL just really is that bad, or have setup the incentives with their contractors properly (e.g. fixed bid with full payment on completion vs time and materials).

It seems like KNC and some of the other players like Bitfury have some significant technical skills.  I have some expectation that players other than Avalon and Asic Miner are going to be able to produce (just maybe not in the extremely optimistic timelines communicated). 

For full disclosure, I have no horse in the KNC stables... but try to to patiently wait for my Avalon Batch 3 order as well as Bitfury.

[DPoS]

bitcoin megastore calling anyone a shillscam  

what the hell is your 'store' ?

Since it seems link to store in my signature does not work for you or you haven't noticed it, here is a link to store official thread on this forum:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=215026

Make sure you understand who is who there and how store works. Calling me "shillscam" is by far the most stupid thing I've seen here lately.

How can you say you have bullshit meter when your store is total junk and don't even take bitcoins... You put no effort.  I just bought shirts and items from a Thailand store using bitcoins and they have top notch service and embrace using BTC..  And they sell real clothes and items not just BTC logos.  They promote BTC by accepting BTC not generic items with logos

You shill junk logos to cafe store and too lazy to promote the USE of BTC.. But try to make easy money off hype.  So yes you are a shill scammer

A disgrace

[KS]

People like to use OSRoC involvement as a reason why Kncminer is legit and going to do what they say they are. I agree they are likely making an ASIC and not a complete scam, however their promises of shipping time and power consumption seem like they'll be hard to keep.

Anyone that thinks that BFL didn't use an ASIC design company as reputable (or more reputable) than OSRoC is fooling themselves. Also, kncminer is using newer tech than BFL, which is more difficult to design and develop. Both companies are using newer tech than ASICMINER / Avalon and both companies are going to run into their share of complications. Except you just haven't seen the complications that Kncminer will run into yet because they're just getting started... they will come IMO.

BFL is a bit of an enigma but they have some shady characters, use shady tactics, and seems really bad at the operating a business. It's hard to decide whether they are really that bad or whether something else is going on but, either way, unless they deliver the ASICs, I'd stay away from them (to think that I wanted to buy a Mini...   ).

[coinedBit]

Can KNCMiner really deliver 28 nanometers?

most of us would even just love to know if they can deliver anything at all, even if it's 500 nm, that would make them at least legit... 

[Anenome5]

People like to use OSRoC involvement as a reason why Kncminer is legit and going to do what they say they are. I agree they are likely making an ASIC and not a complete scam, however their promises of shipping time and power consumption seem like they'll be hard to keep.

Anyone that thinks that BFL didn't use an ASIC design company as reputable (or more reputable) than OSRoC is fooling themselves. Also, kncminer is using newer tech than BFL, which is more difficult to design and develop. Both companies are using newer tech than ASICMINER / Avalon and both companies are going to run into their share of complications. Except you just haven't seen the complications that Kncminer will run into yet because they're just getting started... they will come IMO.

Except for all of those companies, these were the first ASICs they'd ever made/ordered. Only BFL had some experience with FPGAs, and that doesn't necessarily copy directly over to ASICs.

Are you sure BFL used a design company? Explain the power problems then. Any seasoned ASIC company has lots of experience avoiding the common pitfalls in producing designs the BFL apparently fell into.

Orsoc by contrast, it's their business to produce these things. I agree they'll look like geniuses if they pull this off. But is it outside the realm of possibility for them to deliver? Nope. They'd just have to be extremely professional to pull this off. Are they? Seemingly they are. Now it's just a matter of waiting upon execution and seeing if they deliver.

[Anenome5]

Can KNCMiner really deliver 28 nanometers?

most of us would even just love to know if they can deliver anything at all, even if it's 500 nm, that would make them at least legit...  

They produced a working Mars FPGA based on their ASIC design at least. That proves at least chip-designing chops and the ability to code it to a working state.

[dree12]

People like to use OSRoC involvement as a reason why Kncminer is legit and going to do what they say they are. I agree they are likely making an ASIC and not a complete scam, however their promises of shipping time and power consumption seem like they'll be hard to keep.

Anyone that thinks that BFL didn't use an ASIC design company as reputable (or more reputable) than OSRoC is fooling themselves. Also, kncminer is using newer tech than BFL, which is more difficult to design and develop. Both companies are using newer tech than ASICMINER / Avalon and both companies are going to run into their share of complications. Except you just haven't seen the complications that Kncminer will run into yet because they're just getting started... they will come IMO.

Except for all of those companies, these were the first ASICs they'd ever made/ordered. Only BFL had some experience with FPGAs, and that doesn't necessarily copy directly over to ASICs.

Are you sure BFL used a design company? Explain the power problems then. Any seasoned ASIC company has lots of experience avoiding the common pitfalls in producing designs the BFL apparently fell into.

Orsoc by contrast, it's their business to produce these things. I agree they'll look like geniuses if they pull this off. But is it outside the realm of possibility for them to deliver? Nope. They'd just have to be extremely professional to pull this off. Are they? Seemingly they are. Now it's just a matter of waiting upon execution and seeing if they deliver.

Avalon also has experience with FPGA technology.

[coinedBit]

They produced a working Mars FPGA based on their ASIC design at least. That proves at least chip-designing chops and the ability to code it to a working state.

Actually, you would normally develop an ASIC based on a FPGA design and not vice versa: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FPGA_prototype
RTLs like VHDL/Verilog need to be specifically translated into ASIC designs, FPGAs are programmable after all - when using an FPGA there's simply no such thing as dealing with things at the wafer-level.
FPGAs are comparatively easy to use, even by hobbyists with some background experience (CS/EE), with very little resources  being required. These days you are exposed to FPGA and VHDL in college.
Real ASICs designs are a hugely different thing however.

Saying that an ASIC company "has FPGA experience" is as informative as saying that Albert Einstein knew  arithmetics. There's simply NO way for an ASIC company not to know about FPGAs.
You would expect an airline pilot to be able to land a single-engine airplane, but you would not necessarily expect a single-engine pilot to land an A380, roger ?

[Anenome5]

They produced a working Mars FPGA based on their ASIC design at least. That proves at least chip-designing chops and the ability to code it to a working state.

Actually, you would normally develop an ASIC based on a FPGA design and not vice versa: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FPGA_prototype

Yes, but there are certain pitfalls when you go to actually tape-out that takes seasoning and sophisticated simulation software to know how to avoid. BFL seems to have hit these snags considerably. If anyone can avoid them, it's an org such as Orsoc.

Saying that an ASIC company "has FPGA experience" is as informative as saying that Albert Einstein knew  arithmetics. There's simply NO way for an ASIC company not to know about FPGAs.

That's basically my point. Just having shipped FPGAs doesn't mean BFL could make an easy transition into ASICs.

You would expect an airline pilot to be able to land a single-engine airplane, but you would not necessarily expect a single-engine pilot to land an A380, roger ?

Indeed. So we'd be calling KNC true airline pilots, and BFL experienced in little more than Cessnas, whereas Avalon is somewhere in the middle to where at least they pulled off shipping.

[coinedBit]

You would expect an airline pilot to be able to land a single-engine airplane, but you would not necessarily expect a single-engine pilot to land an A380, roger ?

Indeed. So we'd be calling KNC true airline pilots, and BFL experienced in little more than Cessnas, whereas Avalon is somewhere in the middle to where at least they pulled off shipping.

Well, at least for the time being, I beg to differ, I will only call someone a "true airline pilot" once I have seen him actually fly, takeoff and land an airliner - but without such a track record, it's all hearsay, because I haven't actually seen too many ASIC vendors actually deliver upon their promises, despite some of them appearing more legit than others admittedly.

[aeronautical]

If anyone can deliver it's the guys from opencores.org and theres a very strong link between them and KnCminer. I would in fact say that their normal side of there business at ORSoc
was a little slow because of the EU problems so they simply turned there attention to Bitcoin. There starting position would have been nothing like BFL and Avalon, their starting experience
could only be bettered by someone like Cadence Design Systems who have been buying up industrial IP core for some years and bought lots electronics CAD companies for the past decade.
So the next step up in hardware design would be a contracted CDS by a larger company that wanted to really make an impact or damage Bitcoin.
Lots of the major E-CAD companies used opencores as a starting based for design work. I know i worked for CDS.

[KS]

If anyone can deliver it's the guys from opencores.org and theres a very strong link between them and KnCminer. I would in fact say that their normal side of there business at ORSoc
was a little slow because of the EU problems so they simply turned there attention to Bitcoin. There starting position would have been nothing like BFL and Avalon, their starting experience
could only be bettered by someone like Cadence Design Systems who have been buying up industrial IP core for some years and bought lots electronics CAD companies for the past decade.
So the next step up in hardware design would be a contracted CDS by a larger company that wanted to really make an impact or damage Bitcoin.
Lots of the major E-CAD companies used opencores as a starting based for design work. I know i worked for CDS.

But they are entering a whole new ballgame: shipping complete retail products.

Designing the core is one thing, turning it into a product and managing the whole pipeline is quite another. These are two completely different businesses.

[Anenome5]

If anyone can deliver it's the guys from opencores.org and theres a very strong link between them and KnCminer. I would in fact say that their normal side of there business at ORSoc
was a little slow because of the EU problems so they simply turned there attention to Bitcoin. There starting position would have been nothing like BFL and Avalon, their starting experience
could only be bettered by someone like Cadence Design Systems who have been buying up industrial IP core for some years and bought lots electronics CAD companies for the past decade.
So the next step up in hardware design would be a contracted CDS by a larger company that wanted to really make an impact or damage Bitcoin.
Lots of the major E-CAD companies used opencores as a starting based for design work. I know i worked for CDS.

But they are entering a whole new ballgame: shipping complete retail products.

Designing the core is one thing, turning it into a product and managing the whole pipeline is quite another. These are two completely different businesses.

They have a company making them, they have a company assembling them, what makes you think they don't have a company shipping them too?

[aeronautical]

I think the others ASIC companies got them selves in a tangle with issues like setting up SMT lines, not sure why you would bother.
I think they will get it done and in a reasonable manner so long as they use a contract manufacture and good shipping logistics.
ORSoc are smart, way above the starting point of BLF, reading the blogs it nearly sound like there's some bitchy comments and right now and everyone is an expert SHA 256 ASIC designer.

But like i said for a team at CDS to crank out a 28nm chip would be no problem that wiped the Bitcoin market so hard, they are doing all day long go check out the IP list at
http://ChipEstimate.com

[J35st3r]

But they are entering a whole new ballgame: shipping complete retail products.

Designing the core is one thing, turning it into a product and managing the whole pipeline is quite another. These are two completely different businesses.

They have a company making them, they have a company assembling them, what makes you think they don't have a company shipping them too?

What's more, they will be shipping prototypes. They don't even have a chip test strategy in place yet! It will be several months after first silicon that they will be in a position to ship production quality goods. But in this respect they are in exactly the same boat as Avalon and BFL. Welcome to the bleeding edge of electronics design

[KS]

If anyone can deliver it's the guys from opencores.org and theres a very strong link between them and KnCminer. I would in fact say that their normal side of there business at ORSoc
was a little slow because of the EU problems so they simply turned there attention to Bitcoin. There starting position would have been nothing like BFL and Avalon, their starting experience
could only be bettered by someone like Cadence Design Systems who have been buying up industrial IP core for some years and bought lots electronics CAD companies for the past decade.
So the next step up in hardware design would be a contracted CDS by a larger company that wanted to really make an impact or damage Bitcoin.
Lots of the major E-CAD companies used opencores as a starting based for design work. I know i worked for CDS.

But they are entering a whole new ballgame: shipping complete retail products.

Designing the core is one thing, turning it into a product and managing the whole pipeline is quite another. These are two completely different businesses.

They have a company making them, they have a company assembling them, what makes you think they don't have a company shipping them too?

Not what I said.

I meant they're going from and OEM/ODM business to a full retail business.  A completely different beast. Already they don't have enough personnel just for support. So, like the others, they're bound to run into snags, which means delays. I'm sure they can iron things out eventually (basically like everyone before them), if they are serious about staying in business. As I said many times already: it's wait and see time.

[Bitcoinorama]

Yo, update!:

Re: BitcoinOrama Report on the KnCminer/OrSoC Open-day Mon 10/06/13 (Stockholm)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=232852.msg2503674#msg2503674

Haz videoz!!

[KS]

So they ARE using Altera, Stratix4 (not 5 - so Quartus II?)...only full ASIC instead of HardCopy, but on the fab. So it's either Altera or eASIC (FPGA agnostic) or another 3rd party? meh...

tic toc

[tacotime]

It's kind of funny hearing everyone talk about ORSoC like they're some kind of master chip designing company...  They're listed on LinkedIn as having between 11 and 50 employees.  Butterfly Labs, comparably, has about 40 employees.

[dree12]

It's kind of funny hearing everyone talk about ORSoC like they're some kind of master chip designing company...  They're listed on LinkedIn as having between 11 and 50 employees.  Butterfly Labs, comparably, has about 40 employees.

# of employees doesn't really matter. Avalon has far fewer than BFL, but finished earlier. ORSoC's employees are probably more efficient than BFL's, especially when you consider Josh Zerlan is included in that 40 BFL employees.

[Anenome5]

It's kind of funny hearing everyone talk about ORSoC like they're some kind of master chip designing company...  They're listed on LinkedIn as having between 11 and 50 employees.  Butterfly Labs, comparably, has about 40 employees.

Lol, and yet Orsoc still has infinity-times more chip designers, since BFL employs -zero-. Orsoc employs at least 4 people who are outright ASIC designers, professionally and full-time.

[MrHempstock]

Thanks, guys. This thread has given me more information about and insight into KNCminer than some threads that were much, MUCH longer.
 

[AstroBoy]

I'm glad this thread exists.  I was curious about KNCminer as it is one of two 28nm ASIC producers at the moment ActiveMining (a.k.a VMC)  is going with a Standard 28nm design.  It'll be interesting who hits the market first and who hits their power and hashing targets.  Both are using eASIC too which really evens the odds.

It'll be fun watching in September!

[CoinHoarder]

I will be really surprised if KNC keeps their timeline.

They are the next BFL. You heard it here first. 

If it makes you feel any better, Avalon is the first new BFL anyways (delays, customer service, etc.).

[sickpig]

I'm glad this thread exists.  I was curious about KNCminer as it is one of two 28nm ASIC producers at the moment ActiveMining (a.k.a VMC)  is going with a Standard 28nm design.  It'll be interesting who hits the market first and who hits their power and hashing targets.  Both are using eASIC too which really evens the odds.

It'll be fun watching in September!

Firstly dunno anything about VMC but KnC's not using easic, secondly hashfast is claiming to use 28nm in their product.

[Xian01]

I will be really surprised if KNC keeps their timeline.
They are the next BFL. You heard it here first. 
If it makes you feel any better, Avalon is the first new BFL anyways (delays, customer service, etc.).

 I genuinely hope you are wrong about KNC entering the upper echelons of Bitcoin infamy as BFL, and to a lesser degree Avalon, but my gut is telling me you are right.

 I have a tremendous respect for the Swedes. I work with a bunch of them and they are incredibly intelligent and hard working folk, but I've got a real bad feeling, mostly due to the 28nm factor.

 I honestly think we're still at least a year away from that. Maybe as soon as 6 months.

 </0.02 BTC>

[YipYip]

It's kind of funny hearing everyone talk about ORSoC like they're some kind of master chip designing company...  They're listed on LinkedIn as having between 11 and 50 employees.  Butterfly Labs, comparably, has about 40 employees.

Finally a source of reason removing the emotion of it all

What are the facts...hmmm.... Thank you LTC for keeping me warm at night and my ASIC nightmares away

[YipYip]

Did u see the picture of KNC smiling with Josh @ the NY conference in the other thread

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=262134.msg2845693#msg2845693


There is some real bad ju ju coming out of that picture...lolz... ;( ...lolz

[YipYip]

I will be really surprised if KNC keeps their timeline.

They are the next BFL. You heard it here first.  

If it makes you feel any better, Avalon is the first new BFL anyways (delays, customer service, etc.).

I have been staying out of alllllllllllllllllll of it (except trying to make BFL disappear )

I must say though after looking at all the facts over the last hour from somebody who has essentially not bothered and has no emotional involement with any ASIC pplz

I agree with CH ...if it looks like a duck ...quacks like a duck

I really think it is a lame duck    will be really sad but the timeframes seem insane no matter how good u think u r

[jspielberg]

I agree with CH ...if it looks like a duck ...quacks like a duck

I really think it is a lame duck    will be really sad but the timeframes seem insane no matter how good u think u r

I am guardedly skeptical (and have no skin in the game with KnC), it does seem like rapid productization is possible once the chip is available.  Bitfury projects seemed to be able to turn around their chips into miners pretty quick.  That being said, the chip only performs at about 1/2 the expected hash rate.

Frankly I put the bitfury/100TH mine projects on par for execution (so far) with Asic Miner, which is high praise (damn them ).

[Bitcoinorama]

I agree with CH ...if it looks like a duck ...quacks like a duck

I really think it is a lame duck    will be really sad but the timeframes seem insane no matter how good u think u r

I am guardedly skeptical (and have no skin in the game with KnC), it does seem like rapid productization is possible once the chip is available.  Bitfury projects seemed to be able to turn around their chips into miners pretty quick.  That being said, the chip only performs at about 1/2 the expected hash rate.

Frankly I put the bitfury/100TH mine projects on par for execution (so far) with Asic Miner, which is high praise (damn them ).

To their credit, both of those have just shut up, and got on with it with the minimum of fuss and noise, and then delivered proof. Hat's off.

[ASIC-K]

subscribed!

[Bitcoinorama]

Apparently the chips are in production right now. We know the design has been finalized. They then ship the chips to their PCB assembler and ...

Go back and do it again?  Ask BFL how easy it is to go from FPGA to 65nm, so forget 28nm from KNC.

You are officially an Idiot. (newbie)
Try reading a bit before looking so dumb.
They've got 10+ YEARS in ASIC Development, and yes, 28nm as well.
Whereas, BFL had NONE.


ALSO... (to others)Saying they missed a deadline is TOTAL BS. (the mock-up statement was an email between THEM, and in no way a deadline on machines, or indication they are behind.)
Ever stop to think that maybe they are AHEAD of schedule? More likely IMHO, Why send a mock-up, when a few first-run total machines may be days/weeks away?

Phoenix, mock-up statement was in the OG thread...

[Phoenix1969]

oops, ty!

[yeemartin]

 Can KNCMiner really deliver 28 nanometers?

I guess maybe 6 months later, if they are lucky.

[Anenome5]

Can KNCMiner really deliver 28 nanometers?

I guess maybe 6 months later, if they are lucky.

If you're so sure, setup some BTC bets or something and put your money where your mouth is.

[MrHempstock]

Guys, relax.

They're Swedes.

[geofflosophy]

Can KNCMiner really deliver 28 nanometers?

I guess maybe 6 months later, if they are lucky.

If you're so sure, setup some BTC bets or something and put your money where your mouth is.

I'm going on the record as having bet 0.2 BTC on September delivery on BitBet.us. So I guess that makes me fairly optimistic about them but not so much that I'm willing to bet any serious money.

[Yecchi]

If you're so sure, setup some BTC bets or something and put your money where your mouth is.

Why?
Is reality going to change because someone locked up some bitcents in a six month bet?

[Xian01]

If KNCMiner delivers 28 nm on the dates they've promised, I will buy a hat and eat it.
28 nm is state of the art for billion-dollar graphics card companies.

Thoughts?
It does seem awfully ambitious. Has Orsoc delivered 28 nm anything already?

There's no way they'll finish up a 28nm miner by September.

 I'm with you on this one. I don't see how it's physically possible to have any Bitcoin ASIC shipping at 28nm by September 2013, or before mid 2014 for that matter.

 Again, I would love to be wrong on this.

[KS]

If KNCMiner delivers 28 nm on the dates they've promised, I will buy a hat and eat it.
28 nm is state of the art for billion-dollar graphics card companies.

Thoughts?
It does seem awfully ambitious. Has Orsoc delivered 28 nm anything already?

There's no way they'll finish up a 28nm miner by September.

 I'm with you on this one. I don't see how it's physically possible to have any Bitcoin ASIC shipping at 28nm by September 2013, or before mid 2014 for that matter.

 Again, I would love to be wrong on this.

I don't see any indication either way - pro/con. Also, remember that money opens a number of doors. The ASIC is the expensive part, the rest is peanuts in comparison (they won't even have to stockpile PSUs). They have very much externalized the risks to the customer and, AFAIK, expect the chip to not be optimum and have designed it (hopefully) in a way that it would still work even at a reduced capability. That would be from ORSoC.

If ORSoC is handling (all of) the back office and using their pre-existing manufacturing contracts, I don't see much reason for delay unless there is an unexpected fab issue. I have zero confidence in the front of the house though (too much "mouth running" there ).

[geofflosophy]

If you're so sure, setup some BTC bets or something and put your money where your mouth is.

Why?
Is reality going to change because someone locked up some bitcents in a six month bet?

Um, because you can double your coin? October 1 is not 6 months away... If you don't have enough confidence to invest even a few bitcents to back your opinion, why should anyone take it seriously? You're as good as a troll at that point.

[Anenome5]

If you're so sure, setup some BTC bets or something and put your money where your mouth is.

Why?
Is reality going to change because someone locked up some bitcents in a six month bet?

Because if you're so sure, then it's a profit opportunity for you. Talk is cheap, but you'll discover just how sure you are by whether you're willing to take the action of betting on your belief. And furthermore, seeing those bets will serve as incentive for those who know something to bet one way or the other, creating a price signal, giving us information about what's likely to happen, thus helping curate market expectations.

And if they're only betting bitcents then obviously it's not a very strong conviction.

[Anenome5]

Can KNCMiner really deliver 28 nanometers?

I guess maybe 6 months later, if they are lucky.

If you're so sure, setup some BTC bets or something and put your money where your mouth is.

I'm going on the record as having bet 0.2 BTC on September delivery on BitBet.us. So I guess that makes me fairly optimistic about them but not so much that I'm willing to bet any serious money.

Can you link us to the bet? I might want to pile in with you and make some money off these people's apparently unfounded BFL-inspired-butthurt speculation.

Ah, here it is:

http://bitbet.us/bet/472/kncminer-will-deliver-asic-devices-before-october-1st/

Looks like the bets are currently ~2:1 in favor of them delivering on-time, though the amounts wagered favors the 'no' side.

[sbfree]

Wish we could poll the people placing bets for their knowledge of ASIC chip technology:

novice/none,  intermediate (some experience), Expert (understands/works in IC/ASIC field)

[YipYip]

Can KNCMiner really deliver 28 nanometers?

I guess maybe 6 months later, if they are lucky.

If you're so sure, setup some BTC bets or something and put your money where your mouth is.

I'm going on the record as having bet 0.2 BTC on September delivery on BitBet.us. So I guess that makes me fairly optimistic about them but not so much that I'm willing to bet any serious money.

Can you link us to the bet? I might want to pile in with you and make some money off these people's apparently unfounded BFL-inspired-butthurt speculation.

Ah, here it is:

http://bitbet.us/bet/472/kncminer-will-deliver-asic-devices-before-october-1st/

Looks like the bets are currently ~2:1 in favor of them delivering on-time, though the amounts wagered favors the 'no' side.

Awesome... just put 2 btc on the NO   (once the slow ass btc net gets it shiz together )

Should i start to talk up there chances of delivery to get a bigger payout...is this how it works ....lolz  ??

[plasmoske]

LOL at all the "YES" bets. Betting NO would be a smart gamble.

[Ytterbium]

LOL at all the "YES" bets. Betting NO would be a smart gamble.

Pre-order the unit then bet 50% of it's price on "No".  

If it's a day late it's free.

Er, now that I think about it the pool so far is only 6 btc so that won't really work at this point.

[JohnyBigs]

how much do you win if you are right?

[sbfree]

Awesome... just put 2 btc on the NO   (once the slow ass btc net gets it shiz together )

Should i start to talk up there chances of delivery to get a bigger payout...is this how it works ....lolz  ??

Yipyip, is your bet waiting to confirm, because I do not see it on the bitbet website

[Anenome5]

Awesome... just put 2 btc on the NO   (once the slow ass btc net gets it shiz together )

Should i start to talk up there chances of delivery to get a bigger payout...is this how it works ....lolz  ??

Really? Where's your bet? I don't see it. Only two bets have been added since I posted that, 1.0 on yes, and 0.50 on yes. Where's your 2.0 no vote??? You posted that hours ago, didn't you? It doesn't take hours for bets to post.

[Anenome5]

how much do you win if you are right?

There's a formula for figuring that out, check the faq. It depends on when you bet and how much the opposition bets. This is a juicy bet right now because it's nearly 50/50 money either way.

[JohnyBigs]

how much do you win if you are right?

There's a formula for figuring that out, check the faq. It depends on when you bet and how much the opposition bets. This is a juicy bet right now because it's nearly 50/50 money either way.

so what happens if I bet BTC now, I win what .50? 1btc? any idea?

[YipYip]

Awesome... just put 2 btc on the NO  (once the slow ass btc net gets it shiz together )

Should i start to talk up there chances of delivery to get a bigger payout...is this how it works ....lolz  ??

Yipyip, is your bet waiting to confirm, because I do not see it on the bitbet website

Waiting to confirm .... 1.1 btc

Realistically even given logistics of getting these units into 5 seperate pplz hands is going to take 5 days for the ship & testing process to confirm specs

The Luke Jr BFL bullshit will not fly on this bet !!!

Taking all of this into account it is an absolute no brainer....As you may or may not know its a win win for me... as my mission in life is to rid our community of the Cancer that is BFL and there business practices

So even if i lose this bet I will win as the assured destruction of BFL if KNC deliver on time  

So all i can say is

GO KNC !!!
    &
STOP KNC !!

...lolz awesome !!

[Anenome5]

how much do you win if you are right?

There's a formula for figuring that out, check the faq. It depends on when you bet and how much the opposition bets. This is a juicy bet right now because it's nearly 50/50 money either way.

so what happens if I bet BTC now, I win what .50? 1btc? any idea?

Are you betting yes or no?

A 1.0 btc bet on YES right now would yield you 1.91 BTC according to my numbers.

Personally I think they'll begin shipping by middle of September.

[JohnyBigs]

how much do you win if you are right?

There's a formula for figuring that out, check the faq. It depends on when you bet and how much the opposition bets. This is a juicy bet right now because it's nearly 50/50 money either way.

so what happens if I bet BTC now, I win what .50? 1btc? any idea?

Are you betting yes or no?

A 1.0 btc bet on YES right now would yield you 1.91 BTC according to my numbers.

isnt it about the same payout? on either yes or no since it's almost 50/50?

[YipYip]

how much do you win if you are right?

There's a formula for figuring that out, check the faq. It depends on when you bet and how much the opposition bets. This is a juicy bet right now because it's nearly 50/50 money either way.

so what happens if I bet BTC now, I win what .50? 1btc? any idea?

Are you betting yes or no?

A 1.0 btc bet on YES right now would yield you 1.91 BTC according to my numbers.

My 1.1 btc just got conf so the odds are getting in the realms of

1.0 btc YES bet would get them ~2.25  BTC ..thats starting to get interesting

If i was not me I would bet 5 BTC on yes as its great odds !!  ..lolz

[Anenome5]

how much do you win if you are right?

There's a formula for figuring that out, check the faq. It depends on when you bet and how much the opposition bets. This is a juicy bet right now because it's nearly 50/50 money either way.

so what happens if I bet BTC now, I win what .50? 1btc? any idea?

Are you betting yes or no?

A 1.0 btc bet on YES right now would yield you 1.91 BTC according to my numbers.

isnt it about the same payout? on either yes or no since it's almost 50/50?

It's not 50/50 anymore since the last bet went in.

[JohnyBigs]

what happens if they deliver before the betting is closed? lol

[Anenome5]

what happens if they deliver before the betting is closed? lol

Then the bet is immediately paid and closed. What else.

[sbfree]

how much do you win if you are right?

There's a formula for figuring that out, check the faq. It depends on when you bet and how much the opposition bets. This is a juicy bet right now because it's nearly 50/50 money either way.

so what happens if I bet BTC now, I win what .50? 1btc? any idea?

Are you betting yes or no?

A 1.0 btc bet on YES right now would yield you 1.91 BTC according to my numbers.

My 1.1 btc just got conf so the odds are getting in the realms of

1.0 btc YES bet would get them ~2.25  BTC ..thats starting to get interesting

If i was not me I would bet 5 BTC on yes as its great odds !!  ..lolz

[sbfree]

Yipyip, you first stated 2 btc, now you are saying 1.1 btc, which I still do not see on the bitbet website. Just wondering if you are serious or just talking and not walking??

anyway, i will place a bet, but not this weekend. lol.

[YipYip]

Yipyip, you first stated 2 btc, now you are saying 1.1 btc, which I still do not see on the bitbet website. Just wondering if you are serious or just talking and not walking??

anyway, i will place a bet, but not this weekend. lol.

Its the 1.09......

I am now adding another .9 btc to keep it all copacetic and love and light  (Give it 30 mins from this post )

I did say 2 btc so its now 2 btc...

To everybody get in on the action.....ROLL UP ROLL UP >>>>   EASY MONEY !!!!!

http://bitbet.us/bet/472/kncminer-will-deliver-asic-devices-before-october-1st/

EDIT : ANother 0.97 btc so total of 2.06 BTC

[sbfree]

yipyip, if I can seal the deal with some clubs, i will bet this weekend, otherwise i will wait a little longer before betting.....but my gut tells me

naysayers will lose.

[YipYip]

yipyip, if I can seal the deal with some clubs, i will bet this weekend, otherwise i will wait a little longer before betting.....but my gut tells me

naysayers will lose.

The betting is time weighted so you get more of the pie betting now than later !!!!

[sbfree]

yipyip, thanks for the info. on the time weight, i did not understand til now....will consider....still hoping to club some seals.....

[Bitcoinorama]

yipyip, thanks for the info. on the time weight, i did not understand til now....will consider....still hoping to club some seals.....

[sbfree]

ok ok u got me bitcoinorama....

i actually want seals with clubs. hint hint

[Bitcoinorama]

ok ok u got me bitcoinorama....

i actually want seals with clubs. hint hint

[sbfree]

ok, now that i got a seal with a club.....if i can translate that into actual btc, i will go to bitbet and i will place on kncminer to deliver.

[Bitcoinorama]

ok, now that i got a seal with a club.....if i can translate that into actual btc, i will go to bitbet and i will place on kncminer to deliver.

http://bitbet.us/bet/472/kncminer-will-deliver-asic-devices-before-october-1st/

[polarhei]

Apparently the chips are in production right now. We know the design has been finalized. They then ship the chips to their PCB assembler and ...

Go back and do it again?  Ask BFL how easy it is to go from FPGA to 65nm, so forget 28nm from KNC.

You really think Orsoc is going to make rookie mistakes like that, like BFL made? Come on.

I have visited the ORSoc website, there are FPGA development board. So it is likely to be trusted.
Even ORSoc never make mistake The butterfly did, Unless ORSoc has provided the true module, I still assume the OrSOC and Sam are trying to fool us.

[Anenome5]

Apparently the chips are in production right now. We know the design has been finalized. They then ship the chips to their PCB assembler and ...

Go back and do it again?  Ask BFL how easy it is to go from FPGA to 65nm, so forget 28nm from KNC.

You really think Orsoc is going to make rookie mistakes like that, like BFL made? Come on.

I have visited the ORSoc website, there are FPGA development board. So it is likely to be trusted.
Even ORSoc never make mistake The butterfly did, Unless ORSoc has provided the true module, I still assume the OrSOC and Sam are trying to fool us.

Have you read the thread?

Orsoc has verified that they are working with KNC to build a miner.

Further, Sam built the FPGA miner from scratch in six weeks. That takes engineering chops. They pulled it off. Ask yourself if you'd have any faith at all that BFL could've pulled off a similar feat--I doubt it.

In an industry where time is of the essence, BFL decided to make 'cool' looking miners, with bespoke cases and power supplies. Seriously? No one gives a fuck if a miner looks cool--that's not what miners are for.

Avalon had it right--ship the thing in a big ugly metal box that gets the job done, doesn't cost a ton, and doesn't result in supply-chain delays!

Knc seems to be of the latter sort of businessman--get it freakin' done.

If you won't trust KNC until you see a working ASIC come from their shop then you have to accept receiving in late October at best, and roughly half the profit or less, because there will likely be a mad rush of late orders at that point.

But KNC will soon cut off orders and begin work on their Gen-2, and if gen-1 is the great on-time success we hope, then gen-2 will have a loooooooooooot of customers.

Knc isn't stupid, they know the real money may very well be made in their gen-2 device. And hopefully there will be some perks for people whom believed in them for gen-1.

(Anyway it's kinda hard to understand exactly what your point is, but I did my best to respond.)

[Xian01]

I'm with Yipyip on this one. Bet 2 BTC as well that KNC will not ship by Oct 1st.

---

Status: 0/unconfirmed, broadcast through 8 nodes
Date: 8/3/13 15:55
To: Bet that KNC will not deliver by Oct 1st 1KA3xBkiqsgozd9GfqXueVkXByr6J4CzmK
Debit: -2.00 BTC
Net amount: -2.00 BTC
Transaction ID: 9f9700acd25a620d2c514b2fa08727e55efa0ae4543afef5d7aa833da8a45234

[YipYip]

I'm with Yipyip on this one. Bet 2 BTC as well that KNC will not ship by Oct 1st.

---

Status: 0/unconfirmed, broadcast through 8 nodes
Date: 8/3/13 15:55
To: Bet that KNC will not deliver by Oct 1st 1KA3xBkiqsgozd9GfqXueVkXByr6J4CzmK
Debit: -2.00 BTC
Net amount: -2.00 BTC
Transaction ID: 9f9700acd25a620d2c514b2fa08727e55efa0ae4543afef5d7aa833da8a45234

Ooooohh is getting close to 2:1 for the YES pplz

You know what maybe we have be trained by the total fuck ups and incompetence of BFL that we have got it all wrong and these guys are the real deal !!!

The time lines they have given are tight but absolutely possible for a professional organisation that we have not seen ...(AVALON are amatuers as well )  

VOTE yes if u agree

http://bitbet.us/bet/472/kncminer-will-deliver-asic-devices-before-october-1st/

[crumbs]

There are so many people with claims to 28nm chips -- a new one just popped up today here.  That makes it four? counting KNC?  Am i missing anyone?

[MrHempstock]

Have you read the thread?

Orsoc has verified that they are working with KNC to build a miner.

Further, Sam built the FPGA miner from scratch in six weeks. That takes engineering chops. They pulled it off. Ask yourself if you'd have any faith at all that BFL could've pulled off a similar feat--I doubt it.

In an industry where time is of the essence, BFL decided to make 'cool' looking miners, with bespoke cases and power supplies. Seriously? No one gives a fuck if a miner looks cool--that's not what miners are for.

Avalon had it right--ship the thing in a big ugly metal box that gets the job done, doesn't cost a ton, and doesn't result in supply-chain delays!

Knc seems to be of the latter sort of businessman--get it freakin' done.

If you won't trust KNC until you see a working ASIC come from their shop then you have to accept receiving in late October at best, and roughly half the profit or less, because there will likely be a mad rush of late orders at that point.

But KNC will soon cut off orders and begin work on their Gen-2, and if gen-1 is the great on-time success we hope, then gen-2 will have a loooooooooooot of customers.

Knc isn't stupid, they know the real money may very well be made in their gen-2 device. And hopefully there will be some perks for people whom believed in them for gen-1.

(Anyway it's kinda hard to understand exactly what your point is, but I did my best to respond.)

This should be stickied on the OP in this thread, along with at the top of the newb boards.

[Yecchi]

Because if you're so sure, then it's a profit opportunity for you. Talk is cheap, but you'll discover just how sure you are by whether you're willing to take the action of betting on your belief. And furthermore, seeing those bets will serve as incentive for those who know something to bet one way or the other, creating a price signal, giving us information about what's likely to happen, thus helping curate market expectations.

And if they're only betting bitcents then obviously it's not a very strong conviction.

So, basically, you're trying to muddy up rational discourse with fallacious nonsense. Got it.

[Anenome5]

Because if you're so sure, then it's a profit opportunity for you. Talk is cheap, but you'll discover just how sure you are by whether you're willing to take the action of betting on your belief. And furthermore, seeing those bets will serve as incentive for those who know something to bet one way or the other, creating a price signal, giving us information about what's likely to happen, thus helping curate market expectations.

And if they're only betting bitcents then obviously it's not a very strong conviction.

So, basically, you're trying to muddy up rational discourse with fallacious nonsense. Got it.

It's a basic economic principle, actually. What matters is not what people say they will do, what matters is what they actually do.

If you produce a product and ask what price they'd buy at and they say $2, and you say, alright give me the $2 and here you go, and they balk, then they don't really want the product at all, even at $2.

[runeks]

how much do you win if you are right?

There's a formula for figuring that out, check the faq. It depends on when you bet and how much the opposition bets. This is a juicy bet right now because it's nearly 50/50 money either way.

so what happens if I bet BTC now, I win what .50? 1btc? any idea?

There is no way to tell how much you win if you do win, because it depends on what bets are placed after your own bet is placed.

Example: 100 BTC have been bet on "Yes", 1 BTC has been bet on "No". You figure you get great odds on betting "No", and bet 1 BTC on "No". A day later someone comes in a bets 200 BTC on "No", and ruins your odds.

[Ytterbium]

Actually if you think about it - we have no way of knowing if KnC is "really" doing a 28nm process.  This bet is only for delivering 350+ Gh/s at less then 1kW.

Theoretically, they could have just done a carefully routed 40nm or 65nm core and advertized it as 28nm. HashFast is claiming to get 4x the performance per chip compared to KnC.

So theoretically one could win this bet even if KnC doesn't truly "deliver" 28nm.  

Example: 100 BTC have been bet on "Yes", 1 BTC has been bet on "No". You figure you get great odds on betting "No", and bet 1 BTC on "No". A day later someone comes in a bets 200 BTC on "No", and ruins your odds.

It would be pretty stupid if that's the way it works.   Your payout is based on the odds when you bet.  Otherwise there would be no point.

In fact, I think you can bet one way, and if the odds swing way in the other direction you can bet the other way and be guaranteed a win in both cases.

It's based on the "weight" at the time you bet. Right now the "yes" weight is  522,556 and the "no" weight is 612,831.

[runeks]

Example: 100 BTC have been bet on "Yes", 1 BTC has been bet on "No". You figure you get great odds on betting "No", and bet 1 BTC on "No". A day later someone comes in a bets 200 BTC on "No", and ruins your odds.

It would be pretty stupid if that's the way it works.   Your payout is based on the odds when you bet.  Otherwise there would be no point.

In fact, I think you can bet one way, and if the odds swing way in the other direction you can bet the other way and be guaranteed a win in both cases.

It's based on the "weight" at the time you bet. Right now the "yes" weight is  522,556 and the "no" weight is 612,831.

That doesn't make sense. You can't be guaranteed to win. Where would the money come from?

The "Yes" bettors win the money from the "No" bettors and vice versa. Consequently, if I bet 1 BTC on "No" when there are 100 BTC on "Yes" (100:1 odds) I can't win 100 BTC if someone else comes in and bets 100 BTC on "No" as well.

I know a time weight is included in figuring out the odds, but my point still stands, you can't win money that aren't there; it's a zero sum game: you win the losing bettors' money.

[geofflosophy]

Example: 100 BTC have been bet on "Yes", 1 BTC has been bet on "No". You figure you get great odds on betting "No", and bet 1 BTC on "No". A day later someone comes in a bets 200 BTC on "No", and ruins your odds.

It would be pretty stupid if that's the way it works.   Your payout is based on the odds when you bet.  Otherwise there would be no point.

In fact, I think you can bet one way, and if the odds swing way in the other direction you can bet the other way and be guaranteed a win in both cases.

It's based on the "weight" at the time you bet. Right now the "yes" weight is  522,556 and the "no" weight is 612,831.

That doesn't make sense. You can't be guaranteed to win. Where would the money come from?

The "Yes" bettors win the money from the "No" bettors and vice versa. Consequently, if I bet 1 BTC on "No" when there are 100 BTC on "Yes" (100:1 odds) I can't win 100 BTC if someone else comes in and bets 100 BTC on "No" as well.

I know a time weight is included in figuring out the odds, but my point still stands, you can't win money that aren't there; it's a zero sum game: you win the losing bettors' money.

You also win back the binning better's money, minus the small fee for the site. Assuming enough money has gone into the bet that this is small, your winnings will be positive no matter how much you bet Really the wrong thread to be discussing this though...

[Ytterbium]

That doesn't make sense. You can't be guaranteed to win. Where would the money come from?

The "Yes" bettors win the money from the "No" bettors and vice versa. Consequently, if I bet 1 BTC on "No" when there are 100 BTC on "Yes" (100:1 odds) I can't win 100 BTC if someone else comes in and bets 100 BTC on "No" as well.

I know a time weight is included in figuring out the odds, but my point still stands, you can't win money that aren't there; it's a zero sum game: you win the losing bettors' money.

Presumably not all the winners make the same amount of money.  If I bet 1BTC when the odds are 10:1, and you bet 1BTC when the odds are 1:1, I should get a bigger chunk of the winnings.

[runeks]

Example: 100 BTC have been bet on "Yes", 1 BTC has been bet on "No". You figure you get great odds on betting "No", and bet 1 BTC on "No". A day later someone comes in a bets 200 BTC on "No", and ruins your odds.

It would be pretty stupid if that's the way it works.   Your payout is based on the odds when you bet.  Otherwise there would be no point.

In fact, I think you can bet one way, and if the odds swing way in the other direction you can bet the other way and be guaranteed a win in both cases.

It's based on the "weight" at the time you bet. Right now the "yes" weight is  522,556 and the "no" weight is 612,831.

That doesn't make sense. You can't be guaranteed to win. Where would the money come from?

The "Yes" bettors win the money from the "No" bettors and vice versa. Consequently, if I bet 1 BTC on "No" when there are 100 BTC on "Yes" (100:1 odds) I can't win 100 BTC if someone else comes in and bets 100 BTC on "No" as well.

I know a time weight is included in figuring out the odds, but my point still stands, you can't win money that aren't there; it's a zero sum game: you win the losing bettors' money.

You also win back the binning better's money, minus the small fee for the site. Assuming enough money has gone into the bet that this is small, your winnings will be positive no matter how much you bet Really the wrong thread to be discussing this though...

Of course your winnings will be positive. I'm not saying you won't win anything. I'm just saying you don't know your odds.

That doesn't make sense. You can't be guaranteed to win. Where would the money come from?

The "Yes" bettors win the money from the "No" bettors and vice versa. Consequently, if I bet 1 BTC on "No" when there are 100 BTC on "Yes" (100:1 odds) I can't win 100 BTC if someone else comes in and bets 100 BTC on "No" as well.

I know a time weight is included in figuring out the odds, but my point still stands, you can't win money that aren't there; it's a zero sum game: you win the losing bettors' money.

Presumably not all the winners make the same amount of money.  If I bet 1BTC when the odds are 10:1, and you bet 1BTC when the odds are 1:1, I should get a bigger chunk of the winnings.

All the winners certainly do not make the same amount of money (unless everyone place their bets at the exact same time). It's a function of 1) the time at which the bet was made and 2) the amount of BTC bet on the losing side of the bet. My point is simply that you don't know your odds when you place the bet.

[MrHempstock]

Thanks guys for all this enlightening information on if KNCMiner can really deliver 28 nanometers.

[KS]

1 nanometer
2 nanometer
3 nanometer
.
.
.

[yeemartin]

Can KNCMiner really deliver 28 nanometers?

I guess maybe 6 months later, if they are lucky.

If you're so sure, setup some BTC bets or something and put your money where your mouth is.

I just put down 1 BTC bet on the NO side.