Can KNCMiner really deliver 28 nanometers?

[sbfree]

yipyip, thanks for the info. on the time weight, i did not understand til now....will consider....still hoping to club some seals.....

[Bitcoinorama]

yipyip, thanks for the info. on the time weight, i did not understand til now....will consider....still hoping to club some seals.....

[sbfree]

ok ok u got me bitcoinorama....

i actually want seals with clubs. hint hint

[Bitcoinorama]

ok ok u got me bitcoinorama....

i actually want seals with clubs. hint hint

[sbfree]

ok, now that i got a seal with a club.....if i can translate that into actual btc, i will go to bitbet and i will place on kncminer to deliver.

[Bitcoinorama]

ok, now that i got a seal with a club.....if i can translate that into actual btc, i will go to bitbet and i will place on kncminer to deliver.

http://bitbet.us/bet/472/kncminer-will-deliver-asic-devices-before-october-1st/

[polarhei]

Apparently the chips are in production right now. We know the design has been finalized. They then ship the chips to their PCB assembler and ...

Go back and do it again?  Ask BFL how easy it is to go from FPGA to 65nm, so forget 28nm from KNC.

You really think Orsoc is going to make rookie mistakes like that, like BFL made? Come on.

I have visited the ORSoc website, there are FPGA development board. So it is likely to be trusted.
Even ORSoc never make mistake The butterfly did, Unless ORSoc has provided the true module, I still assume the OrSOC and Sam are trying to fool us.

[Anenome5]

Apparently the chips are in production right now. We know the design has been finalized. They then ship the chips to their PCB assembler and ...

Go back and do it again?  Ask BFL how easy it is to go from FPGA to 65nm, so forget 28nm from KNC.

You really think Orsoc is going to make rookie mistakes like that, like BFL made? Come on.

I have visited the ORSoc website, there are FPGA development board. So it is likely to be trusted.
Even ORSoc never make mistake The butterfly did, Unless ORSoc has provided the true module, I still assume the OrSOC and Sam are trying to fool us.

Have you read the thread?

Orsoc has verified that they are working with KNC to build a miner.

Further, Sam built the FPGA miner from scratch in six weeks. That takes engineering chops. They pulled it off. Ask yourself if you'd have any faith at all that BFL could've pulled off a similar feat--I doubt it.

In an industry where time is of the essence, BFL decided to make 'cool' looking miners, with bespoke cases and power supplies. Seriously? No one gives a fuck if a miner looks cool--that's not what miners are for.

Avalon had it right--ship the thing in a big ugly metal box that gets the job done, doesn't cost a ton, and doesn't result in supply-chain delays!

Knc seems to be of the latter sort of businessman--get it freakin' done.

If you won't trust KNC until you see a working ASIC come from their shop then you have to accept receiving in late October at best, and roughly half the profit or less, because there will likely be a mad rush of late orders at that point.

But KNC will soon cut off orders and begin work on their Gen-2, and if gen-1 is the great on-time success we hope, then gen-2 will have a loooooooooooot of customers.

Knc isn't stupid, they know the real money may very well be made in their gen-2 device. And hopefully there will be some perks for people whom believed in them for gen-1.

(Anyway it's kinda hard to understand exactly what your point is, but I did my best to respond.)

[Xian01]

I'm with Yipyip on this one. Bet 2 BTC as well that KNC will not ship by Oct 1st.

---

Status: 0/unconfirmed, broadcast through 8 nodes
Date: 8/3/13 15:55
To: Bet that KNC will not deliver by Oct 1st 1KA3xBkiqsgozd9GfqXueVkXByr6J4CzmK
Debit: -2.00 BTC
Net amount: -2.00 BTC
Transaction ID: 9f9700acd25a620d2c514b2fa08727e55efa0ae4543afef5d7aa833da8a45234

[YipYip]

I'm with Yipyip on this one. Bet 2 BTC as well that KNC will not ship by Oct 1st.

---

Status: 0/unconfirmed, broadcast through 8 nodes
Date: 8/3/13 15:55
To: Bet that KNC will not deliver by Oct 1st 1KA3xBkiqsgozd9GfqXueVkXByr6J4CzmK
Debit: -2.00 BTC
Net amount: -2.00 BTC
Transaction ID: 9f9700acd25a620d2c514b2fa08727e55efa0ae4543afef5d7aa833da8a45234

Ooooohh is getting close to 2:1 for the YES pplz

You know what maybe we have be trained by the total fuck ups and incompetence of BFL that we have got it all wrong and these guys are the real deal !!!

The time lines they have given are tight but absolutely possible for a professional organisation that we have not seen ...(AVALON are amatuers as well )  

VOTE yes if u agree

http://bitbet.us/bet/472/kncminer-will-deliver-asic-devices-before-october-1st/

[crumbs]

There are so many people with claims to 28nm chips -- a new one just popped up today here.  That makes it four? counting KNC?  Am i missing anyone?

[MrHempstock]

Have you read the thread?

Orsoc has verified that they are working with KNC to build a miner.

Further, Sam built the FPGA miner from scratch in six weeks. That takes engineering chops. They pulled it off. Ask yourself if you'd have any faith at all that BFL could've pulled off a similar feat--I doubt it.

In an industry where time is of the essence, BFL decided to make 'cool' looking miners, with bespoke cases and power supplies. Seriously? No one gives a fuck if a miner looks cool--that's not what miners are for.

Avalon had it right--ship the thing in a big ugly metal box that gets the job done, doesn't cost a ton, and doesn't result in supply-chain delays!

Knc seems to be of the latter sort of businessman--get it freakin' done.

If you won't trust KNC until you see a working ASIC come from their shop then you have to accept receiving in late October at best, and roughly half the profit or less, because there will likely be a mad rush of late orders at that point.

But KNC will soon cut off orders and begin work on their Gen-2, and if gen-1 is the great on-time success we hope, then gen-2 will have a loooooooooooot of customers.

Knc isn't stupid, they know the real money may very well be made in their gen-2 device. And hopefully there will be some perks for people whom believed in them for gen-1.

(Anyway it's kinda hard to understand exactly what your point is, but I did my best to respond.)

This should be stickied on the OP in this thread, along with at the top of the newb boards.

[Yecchi]

Because if you're so sure, then it's a profit opportunity for you. Talk is cheap, but you'll discover just how sure you are by whether you're willing to take the action of betting on your belief. And furthermore, seeing those bets will serve as incentive for those who know something to bet one way or the other, creating a price signal, giving us information about what's likely to happen, thus helping curate market expectations.

And if they're only betting bitcents then obviously it's not a very strong conviction.

So, basically, you're trying to muddy up rational discourse with fallacious nonsense. Got it.

[Anenome5]

Because if you're so sure, then it's a profit opportunity for you. Talk is cheap, but you'll discover just how sure you are by whether you're willing to take the action of betting on your belief. And furthermore, seeing those bets will serve as incentive for those who know something to bet one way or the other, creating a price signal, giving us information about what's likely to happen, thus helping curate market expectations.

And if they're only betting bitcents then obviously it's not a very strong conviction.

So, basically, you're trying to muddy up rational discourse with fallacious nonsense. Got it.

It's a basic economic principle, actually. What matters is not what people say they will do, what matters is what they actually do.

If you produce a product and ask what price they'd buy at and they say $2, and you say, alright give me the $2 and here you go, and they balk, then they don't really want the product at all, even at $2.

[runeks]

how much do you win if you are right?

There's a formula for figuring that out, check the faq. It depends on when you bet and how much the opposition bets. This is a juicy bet right now because it's nearly 50/50 money either way.

so what happens if I bet BTC now, I win what .50? 1btc? any idea?

There is no way to tell how much you win if you do win, because it depends on what bets are placed after your own bet is placed.

Example: 100 BTC have been bet on "Yes", 1 BTC has been bet on "No". You figure you get great odds on betting "No", and bet 1 BTC on "No". A day later someone comes in a bets 200 BTC on "No", and ruins your odds.

[Ytterbium]

Actually if you think about it - we have no way of knowing if KnC is "really" doing a 28nm process.  This bet is only for delivering 350+ Gh/s at less then 1kW.

Theoretically, they could have just done a carefully routed 40nm or 65nm core and advertized it as 28nm. HashFast is claiming to get 4x the performance per chip compared to KnC.

So theoretically one could win this bet even if KnC doesn't truly "deliver" 28nm.  

Example: 100 BTC have been bet on "Yes", 1 BTC has been bet on "No". You figure you get great odds on betting "No", and bet 1 BTC on "No". A day later someone comes in a bets 200 BTC on "No", and ruins your odds.

It would be pretty stupid if that's the way it works.   Your payout is based on the odds when you bet.  Otherwise there would be no point.

In fact, I think you can bet one way, and if the odds swing way in the other direction you can bet the other way and be guaranteed a win in both cases.

It's based on the "weight" at the time you bet. Right now the "yes" weight is  522,556 and the "no" weight is 612,831.

[runeks]

Example: 100 BTC have been bet on "Yes", 1 BTC has been bet on "No". You figure you get great odds on betting "No", and bet 1 BTC on "No". A day later someone comes in a bets 200 BTC on "No", and ruins your odds.

It would be pretty stupid if that's the way it works.   Your payout is based on the odds when you bet.  Otherwise there would be no point.

In fact, I think you can bet one way, and if the odds swing way in the other direction you can bet the other way and be guaranteed a win in both cases.

It's based on the "weight" at the time you bet. Right now the "yes" weight is  522,556 and the "no" weight is 612,831.

That doesn't make sense. You can't be guaranteed to win. Where would the money come from?

The "Yes" bettors win the money from the "No" bettors and vice versa. Consequently, if I bet 1 BTC on "No" when there are 100 BTC on "Yes" (100:1 odds) I can't win 100 BTC if someone else comes in and bets 100 BTC on "No" as well.

I know a time weight is included in figuring out the odds, but my point still stands, you can't win money that aren't there; it's a zero sum game: you win the losing bettors' money.

[geofflosophy]

Example: 100 BTC have been bet on "Yes", 1 BTC has been bet on "No". You figure you get great odds on betting "No", and bet 1 BTC on "No". A day later someone comes in a bets 200 BTC on "No", and ruins your odds.

It would be pretty stupid if that's the way it works.   Your payout is based on the odds when you bet.  Otherwise there would be no point.

In fact, I think you can bet one way, and if the odds swing way in the other direction you can bet the other way and be guaranteed a win in both cases.

It's based on the "weight" at the time you bet. Right now the "yes" weight is  522,556 and the "no" weight is 612,831.

That doesn't make sense. You can't be guaranteed to win. Where would the money come from?

The "Yes" bettors win the money from the "No" bettors and vice versa. Consequently, if I bet 1 BTC on "No" when there are 100 BTC on "Yes" (100:1 odds) I can't win 100 BTC if someone else comes in and bets 100 BTC on "No" as well.

I know a time weight is included in figuring out the odds, but my point still stands, you can't win money that aren't there; it's a zero sum game: you win the losing bettors' money.

You also win back the binning better's money, minus the small fee for the site. Assuming enough money has gone into the bet that this is small, your winnings will be positive no matter how much you bet Really the wrong thread to be discussing this though...

[Ytterbium]

That doesn't make sense. You can't be guaranteed to win. Where would the money come from?

The "Yes" bettors win the money from the "No" bettors and vice versa. Consequently, if I bet 1 BTC on "No" when there are 100 BTC on "Yes" (100:1 odds) I can't win 100 BTC if someone else comes in and bets 100 BTC on "No" as well.

I know a time weight is included in figuring out the odds, but my point still stands, you can't win money that aren't there; it's a zero sum game: you win the losing bettors' money.

Presumably not all the winners make the same amount of money.  If I bet 1BTC when the odds are 10:1, and you bet 1BTC when the odds are 1:1, I should get a bigger chunk of the winnings.

[runeks]

Example: 100 BTC have been bet on "Yes", 1 BTC has been bet on "No". You figure you get great odds on betting "No", and bet 1 BTC on "No". A day later someone comes in a bets 200 BTC on "No", and ruins your odds.

It would be pretty stupid if that's the way it works.   Your payout is based on the odds when you bet.  Otherwise there would be no point.

In fact, I think you can bet one way, and if the odds swing way in the other direction you can bet the other way and be guaranteed a win in both cases.

It's based on the "weight" at the time you bet. Right now the "yes" weight is  522,556 and the "no" weight is 612,831.

That doesn't make sense. You can't be guaranteed to win. Where would the money come from?

The "Yes" bettors win the money from the "No" bettors and vice versa. Consequently, if I bet 1 BTC on "No" when there are 100 BTC on "Yes" (100:1 odds) I can't win 100 BTC if someone else comes in and bets 100 BTC on "No" as well.

I know a time weight is included in figuring out the odds, but my point still stands, you can't win money that aren't there; it's a zero sum game: you win the losing bettors' money.

You also win back the binning better's money, minus the small fee for the site. Assuming enough money has gone into the bet that this is small, your winnings will be positive no matter how much you bet Really the wrong thread to be discussing this though...

Of course your winnings will be positive. I'm not saying you won't win anything. I'm just saying you don't know your odds.

That doesn't make sense. You can't be guaranteed to win. Where would the money come from?

The "Yes" bettors win the money from the "No" bettors and vice versa. Consequently, if I bet 1 BTC on "No" when there are 100 BTC on "Yes" (100:1 odds) I can't win 100 BTC if someone else comes in and bets 100 BTC on "No" as well.

I know a time weight is included in figuring out the odds, but my point still stands, you can't win money that aren't there; it's a zero sum game: you win the losing bettors' money.

Presumably not all the winners make the same amount of money.  If I bet 1BTC when the odds are 10:1, and you bet 1BTC when the odds are 1:1, I should get a bigger chunk of the winnings.

All the winners certainly do not make the same amount of money (unless everyone place their bets at the exact same time). It's a function of 1) the time at which the bet was made and 2) the amount of BTC bet on the losing side of the bet. My point is simply that you don't know your odds when you place the bet.