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Author Topic: Just-Dice.com : now with added CLAMs : Play or Invest  (Read 434195 times)
chriswen
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June 05, 2015, 08:38:42 PM
 #4081

Wow didn't notice poloniex added clams trading.

It just happened a day or two ago I think.


Wasn't that traded months ago on polo or did they add leverage trading as well?
Nice to see the bank roll is nearing 10K ^^

They added leveraged trading.
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June 05, 2015, 09:54:11 PM
 #4082

Nice to see the bank roll is nearing 10K ^^

Do you mean the site profit, and 100k? Smiley

It got up over 99k at one point, but then "upup" made a single all-in 49.5% bet:

bet #333517385: 2850 CLAM @ 49.5% lo: lucky:30.4222 profit:2850 balance:5700

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June 06, 2015, 10:41:44 PM
 #4083

Nice to see the bank roll is nearing 10K ^^

Do you mean the site profit, and 100k? Smiley

It got up over 99k at one point, but then "upup" made a single all-in 49.5% bet:

bet #333517385: 2850 CLAM @ 49.5% lo: lucky:30.4222 profit:2850 balance:5700

Wow that is a big single all-in bet. YOLO I guess lol.
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June 06, 2015, 10:57:29 PM
 #4084

Nice to see the bank roll is nearing 10K ^^

Do you mean the site profit, and 100k? Smiley

It got up over 99k at one point, but then "upup" made a single all-in 49.5% bet:

bet #333517385: 2850 CLAM @ 49.5% lo: lucky:30.4222 profit:2850 balance:5700

Wow that is a big single all-in bet. YOLO I guess lol.
Yes Indeed, A YOLO which needs balls of irons to do one  Grin Cheesy

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June 08, 2015, 08:58:29 PM
 #4085

So a couple of days ago, DaDice added a jackpot feature to their site. It seems particularly poorly thought out, but it got me thinking...

How *should* a jackpot feature be implemented?

The DaDice jackpot has several flaws:

1) it's not provably fair at all - it depends on both the betid and the time, both of which can be undetectably maniputulated by the site

2) their jackpot has the best edge for the smallest bets; it actively encourages people to make tiny dust bets rather than big bets

3) their jackpot has a huge negative house edge; it is very gameable and unsustainable, unless they intend to cheat (see point 1)

So how can we do it better?

How about:

1) Since we have 6 digit rolls as opposed to their 4 digit rolls, we can get rid of the betid and current time components, and just make it that you need to roll 99.9999 to hit the jackpot. That makes the jackpot a 1-in-a-million chance. We see around 5 million bets per day, and so will see that many jackpot wins per day.

2) Clearly we need to scale the prize according to the amount risked. It's silly to encourage dust bets. And so hitting the jackpot will pay out a share of the prize pool based on the site of the bet. How about if the bet size in CLAMs is the percentage of the prize pool you win. So if you hit the jackpot with a bet of 5 CLAMs, you get 5% of the pool. That way the pool doesn't shrink too fast and gets a chance to build up. The vast majority of bets are dust, and so we can expect most jackpot wins to be bets staking less than 1 CLAM, and so it will be relatively rare that the pot goes down by much.

3) We've promised investors a 1% house edge, and 10% commission. The house will have to fund the jackpot itself since we don't want to change the deal we made with investors. We could initially fund it with 1000 CLAMs, and leave it to stake. Would the staking rewards make up for the payouts it makes? Staking pays out 0.2% per day, and we expect 5 jackpot wins per day. So long as the sum of the stakes of the 5 winning bets is less than 0.2 CLAMs, the pot will increase that day. That's probably usually going to be the case.

Thoughts? Suggestions? How would a well thought out jackpot system work? Is the proposed scheme worth implementing? Are the proposed prizes too small to bother with?

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Cyrax89721
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June 08, 2015, 09:05:10 PM
 #4086

I can't really think of anything else that you haven't just mentioned.  I did like PD's old jackpot system of 'Roll a 77.77 and automatically win 10x your bet, regardless of wager"
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June 08, 2015, 09:18:26 PM
 #4087

Thoughts? Suggestions? How would a well thought out jackpot system work? Is the proposed scheme worth implementing? Are the proposed prizes too small to bother with?

First, I love JD, thanks for running the site with such integrity.  Second, nice takedown of the dadice jackpot.

I think your outline here is a good way for a JD jackpot to work.  However, the problem is the same as with signature campaigns, I just don't think you can honestly make the jackpot big enough to really be a "jackpot" with the resources available given how you've set JD up.  

At .2% per day 1000 clams would stake 2 clams per day.  While I think any bonus would be welcome, given how much I see people bet on JD I don't think a target of 2 clams per day "jackpot" payout is going to get them very excited - a little more happy, sure, it's lucky money from dooglus - but not excited.

Sites like dadice need things like jackpots to get attention in the marketplace.  While I agree you are wise to monitor your rivals closely and seek to copy or preempt them when they do something clever, I don't think this is an idea you need to chase unless you just think it will be fun and cool to have.

Maybe people will donate to the jackpot pool like they do for the milestone contests you run.  

I too remember PD"s 77.77 jackpot and this seems similar.

Regardless, thanks for trying to think of ways to make JD better and good luck to you and your site.
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June 08, 2015, 11:56:14 PM
 #4088

At .2% per day 1000 clams would stake 2 clams per day.  While I think any bonus would be welcome, given how much I see people bet on JD I don't think a target of 2 clams per day "jackpot" payout is going to get them very excited - a little more happy, sure, it's lucky money from dooglus - but not excited.

Good point. The site sees something like 20k CLAMs wagered per day on a slow day. The house edge of 1% means we expect to win 200 CLAMs of that, and the 10% commission the site takes means that the site expects to keep 20 CLAMs from that. That's not enough to excite anyone is it, even if we put it all in the jackpot pool. Smiley

Regardless, thanks for trying to think of ways to make JD better and good luck to you and your site.

Thanks.

We hit 100k profit for a few seconds just now for the first time:


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June 09, 2015, 03:32:32 AM
 #4089

So a couple of days ago, DaDice added a jackpot feature to their site. It seems particularly poorly thought out, but it got me thinking...

How *should* a jackpot feature be implemented?

The DaDice jackpot has several flaws:

1) it's not provably fair at all - it depends on both the betid and the time, both of which can be undetectably maniputulated by the site

2) their jackpot has the best edge for the smallest bets; it actively encourages people to make tiny dust bets rather than big bets

3) their jackpot has a huge negative house edge; it is very gameable and unsustainable, unless they intend to cheat (see point 1)

So how can we do it better?

How about:

1) Since we have 6 digit rolls as opposed to their 4 digit rolls, we can get rid of the betid and current time components, and just make it that you need to roll 99.9999 to hit the jackpot. That makes the jackpot a 1-in-a-million chance. We see around 5 million bets per day, and so will see that many jackpot wins per day.

2) Clearly we need to scale the prize according to the amount risked. It's silly to encourage dust bets. And so hitting the jackpot will pay out a share of the prize pool based on the site of the bet. How about if the bet size in CLAMs is the percentage of the prize pool you win. So if you hit the jackpot with a bet of 5 CLAMs, you get 5% of the pool. That way the pool doesn't shrink too fast and gets a chance to build up. The vast majority of bets are dust, and so we can expect most jackpot wins to be bets staking less than 1 CLAM, and so it will be relatively rare that the pot goes down by much.

3) We've promised investors a 1% house edge, and 10% commission. The house will have to fund the jackpot itself since we don't want to change the deal we made with investors. We could initially fund it with 1000 CLAMs, and leave it to stake. Would the staking rewards make up for the payouts it makes? Staking pays out 0.2% per day, and we expect 5 jackpot wins per day. So long as the sum of the stakes of the 5 winning bets is less than 0.2 CLAMs, the pot will increase that day. That's probably usually going to be the case.

Thoughts? Suggestions? How would a well thought out jackpot system work? Is the proposed scheme worth implementing? Are the proposed prizes too small to bother with?

Dooglus,

I'm against the idea of a jackpot on just-dice. I think it takes away more than it adds. You can already play low % bets if you want to get a jackpot style win.

I love JD and its innovations, especially the most recent offsite system. I am against a jackpot though as one side will ultimately have to pay for it (lower return for investors or higher edge if it were taken out of all bets). The former I feel would not spur enough new betting volume to be worthwhile for investors (I may be wrong). The latter is very bad (not that you suggested it in the first place). I say this as an investor and occasional player.

I also really like the stability and simplicity of the odds and the user experience on J-D. I have always admired your ability to not add new stuff constantly when what you have "ain't broke".

I have not tried to think of a jackpot system that would be beneficial and for all I know it could exist. I just can't get past the problem of funding it and the negative utility that probably gives investors.


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June 09, 2015, 04:37:42 AM
 #4090

Okay first things first, about your payout rules.  It doesn't make any sense.  5 clams will give 5%.  50 clam will give 50%.  And then anything over 100 clams is everything?  

And then second of all it seems you have money in money out problems.
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June 09, 2015, 05:57:43 AM
 #4091

So a couple of days ago, DaDice added a jackpot feature to their site. It seems particularly poorly thought out, but it got me thinking...

How *should* a jackpot feature be implemented?


The DaDice jackpot has several flaws:

1) it's not provably fair at all - it depends on both the betid and the time, both of which can be undetectably maniputulated by the site

2) their jackpot has the best edge for the smallest bets; it actively encourages people to make tiny dust bets rather than big bets

3) their jackpot has a huge negative house edge; it is very gameable and unsustainable, unless they intend to cheat (see point 1)

So how can we do it better?

How about:

1) Since we have 6 digit rolls as opposed to their 4 digit rolls, we can get rid of the betid and current time components, and just make it that you need to roll 99.9999 to hit the jackpot. That makes the jackpot a 1-in-a-million chance. We see around 5 million bets per day, and so will see that many jackpot wins per day.

2) Clearly we need to scale the prize according to the amount risked. It's silly to encourage dust bets. And so hitting the jackpot will pay out a share of the prize pool based on the site of the bet. How about if the bet size in CLAMs is the percentage of the prize pool you win. So if you hit the jackpot with a bet of 5 CLAMs, you get 5% of the pool. That way the pool doesn't shrink too fast and gets a chance to build up. The vast majority of bets are dust, and so we can expect most jackpot wins to be bets staking less than 1 CLAM, and so it will be relatively rare that the pot goes down by much.

3) We've promised investors a 1% house edge, and 10% commission. The house will have to fund the jackpot itself since we don't want to change the deal we made with investors. We could initially fund it with 1000 CLAMs, and leave it to stake. Would the staking rewards make up for the payouts it makes? Staking pays out 0.2% per day, and we expect 5 jackpot wins per day. So long as the sum of the stakes of the 5 winning bets is less than 0.2 CLAMs, the pot will increase that day. That's probably usually going to be the case.

Thoughts? Suggestions? How would a well thought out jackpot system work? Is the proposed scheme worth implementing? Are the proposed prizes too small to bother with?
omg doog thats would be the best thing ever :3 hopefully we get it soon.

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June 09, 2015, 06:54:19 AM
 #4092

3) We've promised investors a 1% house edge, and 10% commission. The house will have to fund the jackpot itself since we don't want to change the deal we made with investors

I just can't get past the problem of funding it and the negative utility that probably gives investors.

I deleted most of both of our posts and left the bit you seem to have missed. I'm proposing that I fund the jackpot.

Okay first things first, about your payout rules.  It doesn't make any sense.  5 clams will give 5%.  50 clam will give 50%.  And then anything over 100 clams is everything?  

And then second of all it seems you have money in money out problems.

If you hit the target roll number when betting 100 CLAMs or more, you win the whole pot, yes. I figure that would be very rare. People don't often bet 100 or more CLAMs, and hitting it would be a million to one shot. I would fund the pot myself, and I guess allow people to tip the pot, like they do for the bet milestone prizes.

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June 09, 2015, 04:33:18 PM
 #4093


You can now buy CLAMS on your iPhone with ShapeShift's new iOS app:



ShapeShift App:
https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/shapeshift-instant-crypto/id996569075?mt=8


ShapeShift.io - Instant Digital Asset Conversion/币币兑换
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June 09, 2015, 04:57:10 PM
 #4094

So a couple of days ago, DaDice added a jackpot feature to their site. It seems particularly poorly thought out, but it got me thinking...

How *should* a jackpot feature be implemented?

The DaDice jackpot has several flaws:

1) it's not provably fair at all - it depends on both the betid and the time, both of which can be undetectably maniputulated by the site

2) their jackpot has the best edge for the smallest bets; it actively encourages people to make tiny dust bets rather than big bets

3) their jackpot has a huge negative house edge; it is very gameable and unsustainable, unless they intend to cheat (see point 1)

So how can we do it better?

How about:

1) Since we have 6 digit rolls as opposed to their 4 digit rolls, we can get rid of the betid and current time components, and just make it that you need to roll 99.9999 to hit the jackpot. That makes the jackpot a 1-in-a-million chance. We see around 5 million bets per day, and so will see that many jackpot wins per day.

2) Clearly we need to scale the prize according to the amount risked. It's silly to encourage dust bets. And so hitting the jackpot will pay out a share of the prize pool based on the site of the bet. How about if the bet size in CLAMs is the percentage of the prize pool you win. So if you hit the jackpot with a bet of 5 CLAMs, you get 5% of the pool. That way the pool doesn't shrink too fast and gets a chance to build up. The vast majority of bets are dust, and so we can expect most jackpot wins to be bets staking less than 1 CLAM, and so it will be relatively rare that the pot goes down by much.

3) We've promised investors a 1% house edge, and 10% commission. The house will have to fund the jackpot itself since we don't want to change the deal we made with investors. We could initially fund it with 1000 CLAMs, and leave it to stake. Would the staking rewards make up for the payouts it makes? Staking pays out 0.2% per day, and we expect 5 jackpot wins per day. So long as the sum of the stakes of the 5 winning bets is less than 0.2 CLAMs, the pot will increase that day. That's probably usually going to be the case.

Thoughts? Suggestions? How would a well thought out jackpot system work? Is the proposed scheme worth implementing? Are the proposed prizes too small to bother with?

Some places have jackpot where users can decide to be part of it or not. And users that want have a chance be a part of jackpot pays a little extra % egde then the gamblers that not gamble for jackpot. Other way is to make a fund that is invested in jd that pays out daily jackpots. A third way maybe would be investors and you pay equal share of the jackpot. And jackpot should be based on wager to be fair, 1 clam wager = 1 jackpot ticket or something like that. Or bets over 1 clam. I think its best to have jackpot that not pay out to often so the jackpot gets a nice size.

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dooglus
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June 09, 2015, 08:55:20 PM
 #4095

Some places have jackpot where users can decide to be part of it or not. And users that want have a chance be a part of jackpot pays a little extra % edge then the gamblers that not gamble for jackpot.

It could be an option in the account tab, to opt in or out of the jackpot. Most people would leave that at its default, so we would need to decide what the default is. If the default is to opt out, players get the 1% edge they're used to, but almost nobody contributes to the pot. And if the default is to opt in, players will be confused as to why their 49.5% bets no longer pay a full 2x.

Other way is to make a fund that is invested in jd that pays out daily jackpots.

I'm thinking to have the jackpot amount stake. It could be in a separate address, and just get the full 100% of any staking rewards that that address earns. Staking returns are bigger than investment returns, and are always positive. I don't think it's good for the size of the jackpot to go down when players win.

A third way maybe would be investors and you pay equal share of the jackpot.

I don't want to take anything from the investors that they didn't already sign up for. They agreed to 10% commission, so that's what I take.

And jackpot should be based on wager to be fair, 1 clam wager = 1 jackpot ticket or something like that. Or bets over 1 clam.

That's a decent idea. Maybe a small daily and bigger weekly draw, where every bet has a chance of winning in proportion to the size of the bet.

Warning: stream of consciousness rambling incoming. Skip if you like - just trying to figure out how it could work...

It's not immediately clear how to make that provably fair. What do we use to pick the winner? I guess the same issue exists for the "roll 99.9999 to win" jackpot idea - I could brute force myself a client seed that rolls a 99.9999 whenever I wanted if I wanted to claim the jackpot for myself. Maybe jackpot/lottery schemes can't really be provably fair. The way I've seen it done before it to use an external source of entropy: "the hash of the next bitcoin block found after midnight" or whatever.

But even then... so we decide that we're going to use the last 8 hex digits of the hash of the next bitcoin block to tell us which bet wins the jackpot. We can divide those last 8 digits by 0x100000000 to get a random number between 0 and 1, and use that to pick the winning bet. Suppose there were just 4 bets, worth 1, 2, 3 and 4 CLAMs, and the BTC block hash gives us 0.64653 for the 0-1 ranged number. We'd line the bets up in betid order (4, 1, 3, 2), sum them (10 CLAMs), multiply that sum by the BTC block hash number (0.64653 * 10 = 6.4653), then step through the bets in order to see which one takes the total to that amount. The 2nd bet takes the total to 5, and the 3rd bet takes it to 8, so the 3rd bet wins. That seems like a fair way of doing it, but is impossible to verify without a list of all the bets. And there are 5 million bets per day, so that's not practical. I guess if we arrange the bets by userid and sum them by userid it becomes much easier: (eg. the 1 and 2 were by user 23, and the 3 and 4 were by user 21. We sum by userid and list them in order of userid, so the list becomes just: {user21: 7, user23: 3}. Then user21 wins, because he takes the total bet over the 6.4653 threshold. That means that low betids win more when the last 8 digits of the BTC block hash are low, which is potentially gameable by large miners, but it's probably not worth worrying about for the size of jackpot we'll be talking about.

I think its best to have jackpot that not pay out to often so the jackpot gets a nice size.

We can pay out small amounts regularly, like 1% per hour maybe, and 5% per day - then have bigger weekly and/or monthly payouts.

Thanks for your feedback. I'm told that Scabby had some interesting things to say about a possible jackpot scheme in the JD chat this morning, but I missed it. I'll have to go back and read what he had to say.

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dooglus
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June 10, 2015, 12:47:05 AM
 #4096

The site profit went over 100k and stayed there for 6 hours or so, until:



Here's the recent profit chart:


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chriswen
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June 10, 2015, 04:57:10 AM
 #4097

Yeah I think a daily/weekly draw is a better idea.
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June 10, 2015, 06:44:56 AM
 #4098

My ideas for running a jackpot.

Funding the jackpot:
Dooglus adds 1k to a staking account and 100% of his stakes go to jackpot balance.
Players have the option to supply 1/2 of their invested stake to jackpot. Default to No. (Benefit for doing this below)
Players have the option to simply donate to the jackpot.
/Tip Last command includes jackpot always.

Determine winner:
Player rolls 99.9999 is solid. (If I was worried about you brute-forcing a winning seed and playing under a fake account to win, I wouldn't play at your site. I see that as a non-issue.)
When a player rolls 99.9999 a 'Congratulations' message can appear in chat and possibly a special color for the Bet Results tabs.
When a player rolls 99.9999 they are credited with (both daily and weekly) jackpot points equal to wagered amount, but no rewards are given yet.

Winner Payout:
Each day, 1% of the jackpot is split between all players with jackpot (daily) bonus points in proportion to their amount as a percentage of the sum of all qualifying points.
Daily jackpot bonus points are reset to 0.

Each week, 10% of the jackpot is split between all players with jackpot (week) bonus points in proportion to their amount as a percentage of the sum of all qualifying points.
Weekly jackpot bonus points are reset to 0.

(I think this will allow the jackpot to grow nicely.)

Incentive for player to donate 1/2 stakes:
Players that donate 1/2 their staked income get a x2 multiplier on jackpot points they earn. (Up to a maximum of amount invested)
chriswen
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June 10, 2015, 07:11:51 AM
 #4099


Winner Payout:
Each day, 1% of the jackpot is split between all players with jackpot (daily) bonus points in proportion to their amount as a percentage of the sum of all qualifying points.
Daily jackpot bonus points are reset to 0.

Each week, 10% of the jackpot is split between all players with jackpot (week) bonus points in proportion to their amount as a percentage of the sum of all qualifying points.
Weekly jackpot bonus points are reset to 0.

(I think this will allow the jackpot to grow nicely.)

This won't allow the jackpot to grow nicely.  Percentages are too high.  Maybe if the weekly jackpot bonus points are reset to something non zero.


Incentive for player to donate 1/2 stakes:
Players that donate 1/2 their staked income get a x2 multiplier on jackpot points they earn. (Up to a maximum of amount invested)

I don't think this is really an incentive for investment.  It's just a bonus for gambling, and its not even +EV.

EDIT: I probably sound really harsh.  Interesting way of combining the ideas.
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June 10, 2015, 03:24:39 PM
 #4100

ok the folks pooing everyones thoughts, what would you suggest in place of it?

Lets keep it positive!

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