petrescuerz
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July 08, 2013, 03:26:04 PM |
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dooglus is on it and it will be up soon. Deb
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Bugpowder
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July 08, 2013, 03:31:12 PM |
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Back up. And with a bigger investment pool site 30,131.83240351
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petrescuerz
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July 08, 2013, 03:34:20 PM |
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And, we're back! Deb
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dooglus (OP)
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July 08, 2013, 04:03:26 PM |
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Hmm. It seems martingaling is better only if your aiming to less than double your initial balance.
I'm willing to bet you're wrong on that too if you like? The optimal strategy for going from X btc to Y btc is the one that minimizes the amount wagered. In the previous example of 3BTC -> 4BTC, the martingale of 1BTC -> 2BTC is better because 49.5% of the time only 1BTC is being wagered. We can do even better by betting less at a smaller winrate -- consider for example the following martingale of 3 bets: 0.58740084 BTC at 2.70241438x (36.6339%) -> if we lose 0.93244059BTC at the same rate -> if we lose 1.48015697BTC at this rate. The expected values of each strategy: 1 bet -- (3btc @ 1.3333333x) -- 0.7425 success rate, EV = 2.97 BTC (-0.03) 2 bets -- (1btc, 2btc) --0.744975 success rate, EV = 2.9799 BTC (-0.0201) 3 bets -- (pattern above) -- 7455684 success rate, EV = 2.9823 BTC (-0.0177) In theory, if BTC were infinitely divisible, one could start at an infinitesimal amount at "near-infinite" odds and apply this martingale to eliminate the house edge and obtain an EV of 3BTC. In practice, small martingale style bets are better because they introduce scenarios where less BTC is bet and reduce the loss from house edge. The starting and target BTC amounts are irrelevant. Thanks, and you're exactly right. But now who's going to bet against me?!?
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus (OP)
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July 08, 2013, 04:06:18 PM |
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The big disadvantage is that you have to trust the site with your BTC. With Satoshi and the other dice programs, you only trust them with the amount you send for each individual bet. On Just-Dice, you need to trust everything deposited.
You can withdraw and re-deposit your balance between every bet if you like, and only deposit the amount you want to be. Then it will feel just like SatoshiDice, and require the same level of trust...
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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infested999
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July 08, 2013, 06:28:27 PM |
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Any leaderboard support?
It is in the works
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stephwen
Member
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Activity: 83
Merit: 10
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July 09, 2013, 07:37:57 AM |
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dooglus (OP)
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Merit: 1330
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July 09, 2013, 08:09:21 AM |
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Unlucky. But provably fair: $ ./lucky.js 1756 930632b0c58858cc7f151532bfbb32550c93a442fce8f8f8433c5861aa829cf9 732761316056812006739646 $secret | tail -20 1737 : 70.7767 1738 : 13.9626 1739 : 78.7447 1740 : 93.8757 1741 : 69.5691 1742 : 67.4583 1743 : 20.7577 1744 : 60.1988 1745 : 70.9953 1746 : 8.8085 1747 : 46.7611 1748 : 31.0237 1749 : 5.4583 1750 : 38.4261 1751 : 9.1101 1752 : 9.1041 1753 : 20.4566 1754 : 38.5827 1755 : 49.6463 1756 : 33.3851
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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stephwen
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July 09, 2013, 08:12:49 AM |
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I wasn't suggesting the game wasn't fair, but merely sharing my lack of luck publicly
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inbox
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July 09, 2013, 09:44:51 AM |
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Seems like there is 1 bet/s at the moment. Are these the sites bots to fake activity?
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nimda
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July 09, 2013, 12:12:01 PM |
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Seems like there is 1 bet/s at the moment. Are these the sites bots to fake activity?
Watch the "wagered" amount. All bots are third-party.
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infested999
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July 09, 2013, 12:23:26 PM |
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Buzz would like a 256 BTC loan to continue the martingale, and win everything back
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yummete
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July 09, 2013, 02:23:09 PM |
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Feeling bad for him , feeling good for my investments
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BRules
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July 09, 2013, 02:24:37 PM |
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Seems like there is 1 bet/s at the moment. Are these the sites bots to fake activity?
it's not 1 bet/s. When the bet has a lower value, it only shows one bet per second. But to see the numbers of bets per second you should look at the betid column, it's incremented by 1 with every bet. The site has an avarage of 20 bets per second now.
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zebedee
Donator
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Merit: 500
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July 09, 2013, 02:38:33 PM |
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Ah, I see - though it does seem a little risky to keep all funds in a single cold wallet, no? Why put all BTC in one basket (so to speak)?
Well there's a 2-million USD bounty if you prove you can reverse elliptic curve multiplication. Is that risky? There's an address with 111,111 BTC in it. Try that first. Then there are a bunch of them with 50,000 BTC each. Then a handful with 10,000 BTC each. dabs - you don't know what you're talking about. Even if you broke ECC you couldn't steal those coins.
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infested999
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July 09, 2013, 04:17:56 PM Last edit: July 09, 2013, 05:39:06 PM by infested999 |
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Question: How much do you have to have invested into this site to live off of the investment.
Assumption: To live from your investment, you should make ~$30,000 per year. (Considering you don't pay any taxes)
Profit = (your investment % of site) * (wagered/month) * (.01)
The site was launched on June 20, and now it is July 9 (. There have been a total of 78,469.72206232 wagered. Total site invested: 25,748.67315358
Profit = 30000/100 (BTC/$ being $100) % invested = (YOURINVEST)/25,748.67315358 wagered/year = 78,469.72206232/0.6557377049180328 * 12
300 = [(YOURINVEST)/25748.67315358]*[(78469.72206232/0.6557377049180328)*12]*[.01] YOURINVEST = 537.92 BTC = 53,792 USD
This is also a big overestimation since it takes the average wagered amount since site launch, but in reality the amount wagered is growing exponentially.
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dooglus (OP)
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July 09, 2013, 04:18:06 PM |
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I wasn't suggesting the game wasn't fair, but merely sharing my lack of luck publicly I didn't know what you were suggesting, and considered that you were just posting a "wow, look at my sucky luck" picture. But then I considered that others would see it and think "wow, they cheated you!", so I followed up with a luke-warm proof that it was fair. Since you hadn't yet changed your seed, I can't publish the secret for people to verify the sequence for themselves (or you'd see what your next rolls are going to be, and I expect your luck would rapidly improve!)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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vlees
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July 09, 2013, 04:23:47 PM |
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I can't publish the secret for people to verify the sequence for themselves (or you'd see what your next rolls are going to be, and I expect your luck would rapidly improve!)
I don't get this. To verify this claim, could you please publish his secret?
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BEEP BEP
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dooglus (OP)
Legendary
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Merit: 1330
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July 09, 2013, 04:28:19 PM |
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Seems like there is 1 bet/s at the moment. Are these the sites bots to fake activity?
If you look at the 'betid' column, you will see that there are usually many more than one bet per second. The site streams results live to everyone who is currently connected, and to save bandwidth I only stream one bet per second unless the bets are of significant size. Every bet of 0.01 BTC or more is streamed no matter how fast they happen. But "dust" bets aren't shown, other than one per second to keep the display ticking over. There are no site bots. There are customer bots though, running their mini-martingle bets over and over. They eat away at the site profits, satoshi-by-satoshi. And then they lose it all back. It's fun.
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus (OP)
Legendary
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Merit: 1330
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July 09, 2013, 04:31:06 PM |
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dabs - you don't know what you're talking about. Even if you broke ECC you couldn't steal those coins.
Presumably because you would still need to reverse the address hash to find out the public key for that address, whereas the cold wallet has made several spends already and so its public key is - uh - public?
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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