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g4c
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April 15, 2014, 07:52:36 PM |
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... By march 2016 ±3months we may see: - less "bubbles".
- the log rise transitioning into asymptote to saturation.
- $40k per coin ±$20k.
 Very bullish but what will make a BTC be worth 40k$ are real things happening in the real world : USD losing its value, people understanding they are brutalised by the state, people losing their faith in the financial sector Simply more people will consider BTC as having worth. Probably all of the factors you listed are in play, plus others, for example: Merchants realising bitcoin is headache free when compared to credit cards. The chart above shows BTC has already risen from $0.05 to lets say $500 (of course it has bubbled higher). 5c to $500... that's a 10,000X multipler. To get from $500 to $50k only requires a further 100X multiplier. If it did get to $50k by 2016 then there would be ~16M bitcoins in circulation, total market value ~$0.8 Trillion. 0.8 Trillion is not so big globally. |
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Kiki112
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April 15, 2014, 08:08:27 PM |
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... By march 2016 ±3months we may see: - less "bubbles".
- the log rise transitioning into asymptote to saturation.
- $40k per coin ±$20k.
Very bullish but what will make a BTC be worth 40k$ are real things happening in the real world : USD losing its value, people understanding they are brutalised by the state, people losing their faith in the financial sector Simply more people will consider BTC as having worth. Probably all of the factors you listed are in play, plus others, for example: Merchants realising bitcoin is headache free when compared to credit cards. The chart above shows BTC has already risen from $0.05 to lets say $500 (of course it has bubbled higher). 5c to $500... that's a 10,000X multipler. To get from $500 to $50k only requires a further 100X multiplier. If it did get to $50k by 2016 then there would be ~16M bitcoins in circulation, total market value ~$0.8 Trillion. 0.8 Trillion is not so big globally. it is big indeed total USAs debth is 17 trillion, so I think it's quite a sum  |
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boumalo
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Activity: 1904
Merit: 1018
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April 15, 2014, 08:17:01 PM |
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That is what we are hoping for, I think the winklevoss twins 40K$ number is an interesting number to keep in mind, it comes up when you try to calculate where the price could go within 2yeas
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g4c
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April 15, 2014, 08:28:04 PM |
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...
0.8 Trillion is not so big globally.
it is big indeed total USAs debth is 17 trillion, so I think it's quite a sum People estimate total global money at around $200T 0.8T is only 0.4% of that. But yes, it IS a big number  |
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Kiki112
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April 15, 2014, 08:33:25 PM |
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...
0.8 Trillion is not so big globally.
it is big indeed total USAs debth is 17 trillion, so I think it's quite a sum People estimate total global money at around $200T 0.8T is only 0.4% of that. But yes, it IS a big number how much do you want? 0.4% is a lot we could do more but this is quite satisfying  |
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apsvinet
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April 15, 2014, 09:13:36 PM |
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Yes you are right very useful but just few peoples can do good analysis and research and most of other creating rumors
Here's some analysis i did. It covers the entire price of BTC from mtgox back at 5c a coin to the present day. The non parallel log channel indicates relative volatility is decreasing, as expected in a growing market. By march 2016 ±3months we may see: - less "bubbles".
- the log rise transitioning into asymptote to saturation.
- $40k per coin ±$20k.
The fact that the predictions is up to 2016 makes the prediction quite useless imo. You simply can't predict something as violate as bitcoins within that time frame. |
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g4c
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April 15, 2014, 09:41:58 PM
Last edit: April 15, 2014, 09:57:26 PM by g4c |
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Yes you are right very useful but just few peoples can do good analysis and research and most of other creating rumors
Here's some analysis i did. It covers the entire price of BTC from mtgox back at 5c a coin to the present day. The non parallel log channel indicates relative volatility is decreasing, as expected in a growing market. By march 2016 ±3months we may see: - less "bubbles".
- the log rise transitioning into asymptote to saturation.
- $40k per coin ±$20k.
The fact that the predictions is up to 2016 makes the prediction quite useless imo. You simply can't predict something as violate as bitcoins within that time frame. The volatility you speak of is shocking yes, especially when viewing on a linear scale. But that volatility should be considered as over enthusiastic excursions from the already impressive log rise. My analysis attempts to predict the time when the volatility will subside. Notice: the full price function has not fallen below the lower logarithmic growth trend from MtGox at 5c to $500 latest price. You seem to have a somewhat polarized mindset in this matter; predictions are statistical in nature, as yet I have not stated the certainty of my prediction, but you can assume it is greater than 50% otherwise I would not post it. |
CORTEX7 Multi exchange Bitcoin trading client for Win, Mac, Nix, Android.
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Inkvor
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April 16, 2014, 11:25:48 AM |
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Its over 500 now , and it can be 2k any time in this 2 month . lets see  |
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saif92
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April 16, 2014, 11:29:41 AM |
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Its over 500 now , and it can be 2k any time in this 2 month . lets see I don't think its going to touch this 2k in next 2 months because currently under pressure and need some time for stabilizing in this world of speculation |
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Inkvor
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April 16, 2014, 11:47:35 AM |
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Its over 500 now , and it can be 2k any time in this 2 month . lets see I don't think its going to touch this 2k in next 2 months because currently under pressure and need some time for stabilizing in this world of speculation 1k Should be no problem at all , lets hope some big shark come in |
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saif92
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April 16, 2014, 12:34:54 PM |
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Its over 500 now , and it can be 2k any time in this 2 month . lets see I don't think its going to touch this 2k in next 2 months because currently under pressure and need some time for stabilizing in this world of speculation 1k Should be no problem at all , lets hope some big shark come in Currently whales eating our coins in many ways just because of this most of peoples have not trust in bitcoin but lets see whats up in this month |
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apsvinet
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April 16, 2014, 12:36:35 PM |
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Its over 500 now , and it can be 2k any time in this 2 month . lets see I don't think its going to touch this 2k in next 2 months because currently under pressure and need some time for stabilizing in this world of speculation Agree, people are getting their hopes up before we've even reached 1k. Baby steps and so on. It's rising, but it's going slow at the moment. 2 steps forward, 1 step back. |
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Swordsoffreedom
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Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
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April 17, 2014, 06:34:22 AM |
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Its over 500 now , and it can be 2k any time in this 2 month . lets see I don't think its going to touch this 2k in next 2 months because currently under pressure and need some time for stabilizing in this world of speculation Agree, people are getting their hopes up before we've even reached 1k. Baby steps and so on. It's rising, but it's going slow at the moment. 2 steps forward, 1 step back. Yep 2 steps forward 1 step back sit around and take a rest in the new stable range then walk forward again |
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jodybay
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April 17, 2014, 08:38:10 AM |
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Its over 500 now , and it can be 2k any time in this 2 month . lets see I don't think its going to touch this 2k in next 2 months because currently under pressure and need some time for stabilizing in this world of speculation 1k Should be no problem at all , lets hope some big shark come in i think its more realistic if it hit 600$ by the end of the month or next month |
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MoneyGod
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April 17, 2014, 09:06:46 AM |
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Its over 500 now , and it can be 2k any time in this 2 month . lets see I don't think its going to touch this 2k in next 2 months because currently under pressure and need some time for stabilizing in this world of speculation 1k Should be no problem at all , lets hope some big shark come in i think its more realistic if it hit 600$ by the end of the month or next month Now you are going realistic that hope this touch 600$ in next few days because currently around 500$ and not stabling on this |
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boumalo
Legendary
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Activity: 1904
Merit: 1018
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April 17, 2014, 12:38:37 PM |
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500$ now it feels there is a lot of support at prices < 500$ but the price keep going down again, it shakes the weak hands which is good
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apsvinet
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April 17, 2014, 01:12:58 PM |
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Its over 500 now , and it can be 2k any time in this 2 month . lets see I don't think its going to touch this 2k in next 2 months because currently under pressure and need some time for stabilizing in this world of speculation 1k Should be no problem at all , lets hope some big shark come in i think its more realistic if it hit 600$ by the end of the month or next month Yeah definitely. People are overestimating how fast it'll rise at the moment, and it's quite annoying. I'm sure we'll see a rise, but it won't explode unless we get some big news. |
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MUFC
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April 17, 2014, 01:27:39 PM |
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Its over 500 now , and it can be 2k any time in this 2 month . lets see I don't think its going to touch this 2k in next 2 months because currently under pressure and need some time for stabilizing in this world of speculation 1k Should be no problem at all , lets hope some big shark come in i think its more realistic if it hit 600$ by the end of the month or next month Yeah definitely. People are overestimating how fast it'll rise at the moment, and it's quite annoying. I'm sure we'll see a rise, but it won't explode unless we get some big news. There wasn't any big news the last time it rose quick was there? |
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apsvinet
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April 17, 2014, 01:29:16 PM |
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Its over 500 now , and it can be 2k any time in this 2 month . lets see I don't think its going to touch this 2k in next 2 months because currently under pressure and need some time for stabilizing in this world of speculation 1k Should be no problem at all , lets hope some big shark come in i think its more realistic if it hit 600$ by the end of the month or next month Yeah definitely. People are overestimating how fast it'll rise at the moment, and it's quite annoying. I'm sure we'll see a rise, but it won't explode unless we get some big news. There wasn't any big news the last time it rose quick was there? Actually I don't know, however it seems far to unstable to just start rising again. MT Gox doesn't seem to be fully out of the picture for one thing. |
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boumalo
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1018
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April 17, 2014, 01:43:37 PM |
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Its over 500 now , and it can be 2k any time in this 2 month . lets see I don't think its going to touch this 2k in next 2 months because currently under pressure and need some time for stabilizing in this world of speculation 1k Should be no problem at all , lets hope some big shark come in i think its more realistic if it hit 600$ by the end of the month or next month Yeah definitely. People are overestimating how fast it'll rise at the moment, and it's quite annoying. I'm sure we'll see a rise, but it won't explode unless we get some big news. There wasn't any big news the last time it rose quick was there? Actually I don't know, however it seems far to unstable to just start rising again. MT Gox doesn't seem to be fully out of the picture for one thing. Mtgox is still in everyone's head and the China fuss is far from over apparently but I feel the very good fundamentals are still here so it is risky to be in fiat instead of Bitcoin |
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