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mechs
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September 29, 2013, 05:03:58 PM |
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3 player currently making 100btc+ bets, holy hell...
Don;t you wish the max profit was 1% so we could have even higher variance? Mechs, you amaze me. You do realize that the more players we have doing near max profit bets the lesser variance we have, right? And YES, I'd like to have full Kelly again, as 99% of investors who understand how math works. No way, broseph. We won when we were at 1/4 Kelly and lost since we've been at 1/2 Kelly so LDO 1e-12 Kelly max bet will produce unlimited profits LOL :-P The smaller the max bet, the more reliable the profits will converge on predicted value due to less variance - with the assumption that the total amount wagered remains unchanged. Of course, the total amount wagered would likely be less with a lower max profit so that assumption is likely false It a matter of variance tolerance and how much vaiance the bankroll and investors can support. We are seeing a lot of divestments now with big bids in. Is that fair to investors who stay invested, especially those who invest & forget and not happen to be online when whales come on? |
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Each block is stacked on top of the previous one. Adding another block to the top makes all lower blocks more difficult to remove: there is more "weight" above each block. A transaction in a block 6 blocks deep (6 confirmations) will be very difficult to remove.
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Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction.
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integrity42
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September 29, 2013, 05:07:20 PM |
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only 10% divestment today, and they'll go back in when the whales stop playing.
stop whining about variance. either understand math or dont invest here.
if we set to 1/4 kelly we miss out on a lot of profit in the long run. 1/2 is a good compromise. feel free to divest at any time.
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mechs
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September 29, 2013, 05:10:31 PM |
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only 10% divestment today, and they'll go back in when the whales stop playing.
stop whining about variance. either understand math or dont invest here.
if we set to 1/4 kelly we miss out on a lot of profit in the long run. 1/2 is a good compromise. feel free to divest at any time.
I am just asking a question - would you rather have 1% max bet as opposed to current 0.5%? |
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maqifrnswa
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September 29, 2013, 05:21:30 PM |
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3 player currently making 100btc+ bets, holy hell...
Don;t you wish the max profit was 1% so we could have even higher variance? Mechs, you amaze me. You do realize that the more players we have doing near max profit bets the lesser variance we have, right? And YES, I'd like to have full Kelly again, as 99% of investors who understand how math works. No way, broseph. We won when we were at 1/4 Kelly and lost since we've been at 1/2 Kelly so LDO 1e-12 Kelly max bet will produce unlimited profits LOL :-P The smaller the max bet, the more reliable the profits will converge on predicted value due to less variance - with the assumption that the total amount wagered remains unchanged. Of course, the total amount wagered would likely be less with a lower max profit so that assumption is likely false It a matter of variance tolerance and how much vaiance the bankroll and investors can support. We are seeing a lot of divestments now with big bids in. Is that fair to investors who stay invested, especially those who invest & forget and not happen to be online when whales come on? Yes, it is fair because the rules didn't change mid game. Investors know what variance and expected value is, and they should only be investing what they are comfortable with or take action when site action moves in a direction they are not comfortable with. I guess we have different definitions of "fair" - to me it means I get exactly what I agreed to. |
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broolstoryco
Member
 Offline
Activity: 76
Merit: 10
Enemy of the State
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September 29, 2013, 05:43:02 PM |
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i doubt we'll see -5000 again.
yeaaaah, about that.. |
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Rampion
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
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September 29, 2013, 05:48:53 PM |
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Sweet, -6k. Down almost 20% on my investment, this is going to be hard to recover if Nako stops now...
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wachtwoord
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
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September 29, 2013, 05:49:54 PM |
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Sweet, -6k. Down almost 20% on my investment, this is going to be hard to recover if Nako stops now...
Why would he stop? He has a *system* which makes him guaranteed money for little effort  |
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Draino
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September 29, 2013, 05:50:49 PM |
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correct me if i'm wrong, but the max bet was below 100btc and immediately the site is wildly profitable
the max bet is above 100btc and immediately started bleeding thousands of coins (again)
buhht erts jerts vurrance!!
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broolstoryco
Member
Offline
Activity: 76
Merit: 10
Enemy of the State
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September 29, 2013, 05:52:33 PM |
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correct me if i'm wrong, but the max bet was below 100btc and immediately the site is wildly profitable
the max bet is above 100btc and immediately started bleeding thousands of coins (again)
buhht erts jerts vurrance!!
you are wrong, read thread. back to -3k now |
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wachtwoord
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
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September 29, 2013, 05:53:01 PM |
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correct me if i'm wrong, but the max bet was below 100btc and immediately the site is wildly profitable
the max bet is above 100btc and immediately started bleeding thousands of coins (again)
buhht erts jerts vurrance!!
The site is profitable at any limit: it has an edge >0. Max bet only affects risk of ruin. To avoid bankruptcy the Kelly criterion is used (which implies 1% max bet). |
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integrity42
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September 29, 2013, 05:53:29 PM |
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Everyone needs to relax, the more bets he does at max bet, the harder it becomes to win. He's doing lots of max bets
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BitcoinLeader
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September 29, 2013, 06:02:03 PM |
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Wow people retracted 10K bitcoins from their investments in a few hours.
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broolstoryco
Member
Offline
Activity: 76
Merit: 10
Enemy of the State
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September 29, 2013, 06:04:14 PM |
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Wow people retracted 10K bitcoins from their investments in a few hours.
em, we went from +5k to -6k, thats a 11k wipe in equity. it appears people are staying in.. |
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mechs
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September 29, 2013, 06:06:58 PM |
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Wow people retracted 10K bitcoins from their investments in a few hours.
About 6k were divested |
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BitcoinLeader
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September 29, 2013, 06:07:06 PM |
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Wow people retracted 10K bitcoins from their investments in a few hours.
em, we went from +5k to -6k, thats a 11k wipe in equity. it appears people are staying in.. I don't think the profit affects the equity? |
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broolstoryco
Member
Offline
Activity: 76
Merit: 10
Enemy of the State
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September 29, 2013, 06:10:37 PM |
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holy crap from -6k to +1 in minutes. insane. insane day.. half of volume from creation til yesterday was bet today.. Wow people retracted 10K bitcoins from their investments in a few hours.
em, we went from +5k to -6k, thats a 11k wipe in equity. it appears people are staying in.. I don't think the profit affects the equity? not percentual, however the amount invested decreases/increases with loss/profit |
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maqifrnswa
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September 29, 2013, 06:11:05 PM |
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Wow people retracted 10K bitcoins from their investments in a few hours.
em, we went from +5k to -6k, thats a 11k wipe in equity. it appears people are staying in.. I don't think the profit affects the equity? profit effects bankroll, directly and linearly |
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mechs
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September 29, 2013, 06:11:39 PM |
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holy crap from -6k to +1 in minutes. insane. insane day.. half of volume from creation til yesterday was bet today..
He trying to break the bank. |
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chriswen
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September 29, 2013, 06:14:47 PM |
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3 player currently making 100btc+ bets, holy hell...
Don;t you wish the max profit was 1% so we could have even higher variance? Mechs, you amaze me. You do realize that the more players we have doing near max profit bets the lesser variance we have, right? And YES, I'd like to have full Kelly again, as 99% of investors who understand how math works. If it hurts seeing your investment going up and down, don't invest in a casino, or invest less coins in it. You known using half kelly is not uncommon? |
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BitcoinLeader
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September 29, 2013, 06:15:37 PM |
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So with 10 BTC investment you can theoretically earn 1.25 from 5K profit swing?
5000 / 40.000 * 10 = 1.25
Let's assume there will be 5 x 5k profit swings in a day, it could earn you about 6.25 Bitcoins with a 10 BTC investment if you step in and out at the right time.
This is without taking divesting fees into account.
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