Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game

[integrity42]

What is happening is really unbelievable.

enhpad turned 50BTC into 2,300, then lost it back.

20:15:49 (43175) <enhpad> i cant believe i was kinda a millionare a few moments ago

[wachtwoord]

3 player currently making 100btc+ bets, holy hell...

Don;t you wish the max profit was 1% so we could have even higher variance?

Mechs, you amaze me. You do realize that the more players we have doing near max profit bets the lesser variance we have, right?

And YES, I'd like to have full Kelly again, as 99% of investors who understand how math works.

If it hurts seeing your investment going up and down, don't invest in a casino, or invest less coins in it.

You known using half kelly is not uncommon?

Argumentum ad auctoritatem

[broolstoryco]

So with 10 BTC investment you can theoretically earn 1.25 from 5K profit swing?

5000 / 40.000 * 10 = 1.25

Let's assume there will be 5 x 5k profit swings in a day, it could earn you about 6.25 Bitcoins with a 10 BTC investment if you step in and out at the right time.
This is without taking divesting fees into account.

theoretically. timing invest/divest is impossible, however (akin to predicting coinflips - dont get fooled by randomness)

[nicolaennio]

holy crap from -6k to +1 in minutes. insane. insane day.. half of volume from creation til yesterday was bet today..

Wow people retracted 10K bitcoins from their investments in a few hours.

em, we went from +5k to -6k, thats a 11k wipe in equity. it appears people are staying in..

I don't think the profit affects the equity?

not percentual, however the amount invested decreases/increases with loss/profit

Really, I feel spiritually changed.

[marcovaldo]

What is happening is really unbelievable.

enhpad turned 50BTC into 2,300, then lost it back.

20:15:49 (43175) <enhpad> i cant believe i was kinda a millionare a few moments ago

Proof? I would be mad ...

[chriswen]

So with 10 BTC investment you can theoretically earn 1.25 from 5K profit swing?

5000 / 40.000 * 10 = 1.25

Let's assume there will be 5 x 5k profit swings in a day, it could earn you about 6.25 Bitcoins with a 10 BTC investment if you step in and out at the right time.
This is without taking divesting fees into account.

theoretically. timing invest/divest is impossible, however (akin to predicting coinflips - dont get fooled by randomness)

Actually it could be possible.  If you know there is going to be huge variance then you could invest low and divest high.

Of course you could be missing on profits but its better than losing money.  If you know there is gonna be 1k btc profit swing you could make use of that.

[mechs]

What is happening is really unbelievable.

enhpad turned 50BTC into 2,300, then lost it back.

20:15:49 (43175) <enhpad> i cant believe i was kinda a millionare a few moments ago

Proof? I would be mad ...

Not sure where he started but he made several winning max bets back to back

[marcovaldo]

Not sure where he started but he made several winning max bets back to back

Is it possible to check his bets?
How much does he have now?

[broolstoryco]

So with 10 BTC investment you can theoretically earn 1.25 from 5K profit swing?

5000 / 40.000 * 10 = 1.25

Let's assume there will be 5 x 5k profit swings in a day, it could earn you about 6.25 Bitcoins with a 10 BTC investment if you step in and out at the right time.
This is without taking divesting fees into account.

theoretically. timing invest/divest is impossible, however (akin to predicting coinflips - dont get fooled by randomness)

Actually it could be possible.  If you know there is going to be huge variance then you could invest low and divest high.

Of course you could be missing on profits but its better than losing money.  If you know there is gonna be 1k btc profit swing you could make use of that.

no, you could not. you cannot predict the direction, even after a long winning/losing streak. yes you could decrease/increase your variance IF you knew when big bets are coming, but you would also be decreasing your expected value.

[DiamondCardz]

What is happening is really unbelievable.

enhpad turned 50BTC into 2,300, then lost it back.

20:15:49 (43175) <enhpad> i cant believe i was kinda a millionare a few moments ago

Jesus. That's what happens when you get too greedy, though.

[BitcoinLeader]

So with 10 BTC investment you can theoretically earn 1.25 from 5K profit swing?

5000 / 40.000 * 10 = 1.25

Let's assume there will be 5 x 5k profit swings in a day, it could earn you about 6.25 Bitcoins with a 10 BTC investment if you step in and out at the right time.
This is without taking divesting fees into account.

theoretically. timing invest/divest is impossible, however (akin to predicting coinflips - dont get fooled by randomness)

Actually it could be possible.  If you know there is going to be huge variance then you could invest low and divest high.

Of course you could be missing on profits but its better than losing money.  If you know there is gonna be 1k btc profit swing you could make use of that.

no, you could not. you cannot predict the direction, even after a long winning/losing streak. yes you could decrease/increase your variance IF you knew when big bets are coming, but you would also be decreasing your expected value.

If you can't predict the direction, doesn't it mean that the house can go bankrupt?
Because when you enter at -5k, there's a high chance it will go back to zero due to the house edge? Or am I wrong?

[chriswen]

So with 10 BTC investment you can theoretically earn 1.25 from 5K profit swing?

5000 / 40.000 * 10 = 1.25

Let's assume there will be 5 x 5k profit swings in a day, it could earn you about 6.25 Bitcoins with a 10 BTC investment if you step in and out at the right time.
This is without taking divesting fees into account.

theoretically. timing invest/divest is impossible, however (akin to predicting coinflips - dont get fooled by randomness)

Actually it could be possible.  If you know there is going to be huge variance then you could invest low and divest high.

Of course you could be missing on profits but its better than losing money.  If you know there is gonna be 1k btc profit swing you could make use of that.

no, you could not. you cannot predict the direction, even after a long winning/losing streak. yes you could decrease/increase your variance IF you knew when big bets are coming, but you would also be decreasing your expected value.

Except it is quite reasonable to predict that profit will eventually go down over a certain time period of high variance.

[chriswen]

So with 10 BTC investment you can theoretically earn 1.25 from 5K profit swing?

5000 / 40.000 * 10 = 1.25

Let's assume there will be 5 x 5k profit swings in a day, it could earn you about 6.25 Bitcoins with a 10 BTC investment if you step in and out at the right time.
This is without taking divesting fees into account.

theoretically. timing invest/divest is impossible, however (akin to predicting coinflips - dont get fooled by randomness)

Actually it could be possible.  If you know there is going to be huge variance then you could invest low and divest high.

Of course you could be missing on profits but its better than losing money.  If you know there is gonna be 1k btc profit swing you could make use of that.

no, you could not. you cannot predict the direction, even after a long winning/losing streak. yes you could decrease/increase your variance IF you knew when big bets are coming, but you would also be decreasing your expected value.

If you can't predict the direction, doesn't it mean that the house can go bankrupt?
Because when you enter at -5k, there's a high chance it will go back to zero due to the house edge? Or am I wrong?

Wrong the chance is still the same as going down another 5k.

[wachtwoord]

So with 10 BTC investment you can theoretically earn 1.25 from 5K profit swing?

5000 / 40.000 * 10 = 1.25

Let's assume there will be 5 x 5k profit swings in a day, it could earn you about 6.25 Bitcoins with a 10 BTC investment if you step in and out at the right time.
This is without taking divesting fees into account.

theoretically. timing invest/divest is impossible, however (akin to predicting coinflips - dont get fooled by randomness)

Actually it could be possible.  If you know there is going to be huge variance then you could invest low and divest high.

Of course you could be missing on profits but its better than losing money.  If you know there is gonna be 1k btc profit swing you could make use of that.

no, you could not. you cannot predict the direction, even after a long winning/losing streak. yes you could decrease/increase your variance IF you knew when big bets are coming, but you would also be decreasing your expected value.

If you can't predict the direction, doesn't it mean that the house can go bankrupt?
Because when you enter at -5k, there's a high chance it will go back to zero due to the house edge? Or am I wrong?

You are wrong, that's what Kelly is for. 1% of the bankroll is an ever decreasing number if the house continues to lose.

[broolstoryco]

Except it is quite reasonable to predict that profit will eventually go down over a certain time period of high variance.

going up or down at any point is symmetrical, with regards to probability. This is the same illusion when one discusses stock prices or forex.

If you can't predict the direction, doesn't it mean that the house can go bankrupt?
Because when you enter at -5k, there's a high chance it will go back to zero due to the house edge? Or am I wrong?

the chances are the same as going from +5k to +10k

[chriswen]

So with 10 BTC investment you can theoretically earn 1.25 from 5K profit swing?

5000 / 40.000 * 10 = 1.25

Let's assume there will be 5 x 5k profit swings in a day, it could earn you about 6.25 Bitcoins with a 10 BTC investment if you step in and out at the right time.
This is without taking divesting fees into account.

theoretically. timing invest/divest is impossible, however (akin to predicting coinflips - dont get fooled by randomness)

Actually it could be possible.  If you know there is going to be huge variance then you could invest low and divest high.

Of course you could be missing on profits but its better than losing money.  If you know there is gonna be 1k btc profit swing you could make use of that.

no, you could not. you cannot predict the direction, even after a long winning/losing streak. yes you could decrease/increase your variance IF you knew when big bets are coming, but you would also be decreasing your expected value.

If you can't predict the direction, doesn't it mean that the house can go bankrupt?
Because when you enter at -5k, there's a high chance it will go back to zero due to the house edge? Or am I wrong?

You are wrong, that's what Kelly is for. 1% of the bankroll is an ever decreasing number if the house continues to lose.

So it's like Zeno's paradox.

Since you can only lose 1% of your bankroll at a time , you'll never lose your whole bankroll.  But, then it doesn't really matter because,
0.99^25 = 22% lost
0.99^50 = 40% bankroll reduction
0.99^100= 63% bankroll lost
0.99^200= 87% bankroll lost

It's like the martingale theory.  What's the chance that you'll lose 50 times in a row?

[Skinnkavaj]

Before all this with Nakowa winning big and taking the house down. What was the max profit the house ever had since the site started?

[mechs]

Before all this with Nakowa winning big and taking the house down. What was the max profit the house ever had since the site started?

1% kelly and had a max profit over 550 BTC

[chriswen]

Before all this with Nakowa winning big and taking the house down. What was the max profit the house ever had since the site started?

1% kelly and had a max profit over 550 BTC

The highest its ever been was 6000 btc.  Though I think it was 7500 btc for a short time.

[drawingthesun]

Before all this with Nakowa winning big and taking the house down. What was the max profit the house ever had since the site started?

1% kelly and had a max profit over 550 BTC

The highest its ever been was 6000 btc.  Though I think it was 7500 btc for a short time.

They are talking about the max profit a gambler is allowed to win in one bet. You are talking about the maximum the site profit ever reached.