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Author Topic: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game  (Read 434903 times)
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June 27, 2013, 03:12:19 PM
 #81

Someone lost a huge bet somewhere lol... "site is up" went from 115 to 204 in the hour I last checked it.  nice.

I was watching that.  It was a huge losing martingale sequence:

...
lose 1.34217728
lose 2.68435456
lose 5.36870912
lose 10.73741824
lose 21.47483648
lose 42.94967296

Total loss around 86 BTC.  The guy had been martingale betting for hours, and had slowly but surely won about 80 BTC, then lost it all back in a few bets.

That hurts.

I think you just convinced me to invest.  Wink  Cheesy  Grin
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June 27, 2013, 03:31:50 PM
 #82

But this is not a "normal" security, this is basically guaranteed free money supposing long-term investments and honest operation together with people "nice enough" to gamble. I guess at some point the system could change in order to make it harder to be an investor, which automatically benefits the early investors.
Such a change would only benefit the early investors insomuch as they already reaped the greater reward. It wouldn't give additional benefit to early investors on an ongoing basis (like how AM IPO holders have an enormous advantage due to 35x rise in share price making a larger barrier to entry for new investors on an absolute basis), because as the way it's set up, all just-dice investors will always share equally in benefit on each roll, proportional to the amount risked into the site bankroll. The longer you hold, the more the benefit is compounded. There's really no way to give a benefit to early investors at the expense of newer investors without some sort of literal bonus applied to accounts with an ID number smaller than {insert arbitrary cutoff here}. And that will do nothing except deter newer investors from coming in, which is bad - investors should want more investors to come in, because if the winning pool is large enough, it will encourage larger bets. Since all investors share equally in the profits of each bet proportionally to the amount bankrolled, it's a net win for all investors. Granted, you're not going to make much if you only hold .001% of the pool, since the pool size is variable, but over time it's better for everyone to have a large bankroll to attract larger bets. And everyone knows that the high rollers are what makes a casino profitable... basically, a big payout pool will result in a positive feedback loop, generating higher payouts attracting higher bets, while simultaneously generating higher losses and therefore higher fees for investors.

I've been toying with a concept of a gambling site that allows direct investing, but this is a MUCH more elegant solution than what I had in mind. Really, really brilliant implementation.

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June 27, 2013, 04:09:42 PM
Last edit: June 27, 2013, 04:35:23 PM by dooglus
 #83

BTW, dooglus, do you have a chart with wagers volume/investment volume ratio over time lying around? Smiley

Not yet I don't.  Yesterday I spent fixing a couple of security issues on the web server.  Reassuring, huh?

I can see that an API is in demand, so will work on that next.

Also high on the list is allowing investors to select their own risk profile.  Currently every investor offers up 1% of his investment to be lost on each roll.  Some would like to be able to risk more per roll, getting a bigger share of the action with correspondingly greater risks.

Charts will come later.   I have all the data, of course.

In the mean time, this chart will give a rough indication of amount invested over time, with the following  caveats:

* I didn't use that address for the first few days, so the ramp up at the start is false, and should be spread over a few days
* It doesn't include the amount I keep on my computer, off the website, but not yet in cold storage, for refilling the hot wallet when needed
* I manually move funds from my computer to the cold storage when I notice there's too much on my computer, so the granularity isn't great
* It does include player balances, which are typically insignificant, since players either invest or withdraw when they are done playing

but it's the best indication of investment growth I have at the moment.  Note that the graph tracks the total value of investments - whether it grows due to new investment, or due to players making losing bets, the coins end up in the cold storage address either way.

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June 27, 2013, 04:12:13 PM
 #84

please make API keys be specific to operations - e.g. one 'read only' API key, and one 'read/write' API key - mtgox users have been stung too many times by having a single API key for write operations and finding all their BTC stolen.

I was thinking of having each API key have a set of checkboxes: "read, write, bet, invest" or whatever.

That way you can make 4 keys, each with a different checkbox enabled if you like, or you can make a single key with all the checkboxes enabled.

I think that's how Gox works too isn't it?  Do you see a problem with that?  If you want to put all your eggs in one API key then I don't want to stop you.

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June 27, 2013, 04:14:51 PM
 #85

Saw a 250BTC winning bet but I don't know how to post link to the bet ID.
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June 27, 2013, 04:21:21 PM
 #86

please make API keys be specific to operations - e.g. one 'read only' API key, and one 'read/write' API key - mtgox users have been stung too many times by having a single API key for write operations and finding all their BTC stolen.

I was thinking of having each API key have a set of checkboxes: "read, write, bet, invest" or whatever.

That way you can make 4 keys, each with a different checkbox enabled if you like, or you can make a single key with all the checkboxes enabled.

I think that's how Gox works too isn't it?  Do you see a problem with that?  If you want to put all your eggs in one API key then I don't want to stop you.
That's reasonable.

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June 27, 2013, 04:24:30 PM
 #87

I'd say give it another week or five, then SLOWLY and incrementally raise it if needed so as not to spook the bankrollers. And be willing to lower it later, too Wink

I'm in no hurry to take money out of this thing.  I have a decent investment in it myself, and so am profiting as much as anyone else.  I don't need to skim more off using the commission charges.  I'm hoping 1% will be enough to cover comps, hosting, etc. but we'll see.  I don't want to pay for that out of the gains from my investment, and more than I expect other investors to chip in for it other than through commission.

Quote
Remember - the risk is to the folks who have put in BTC (and I'm certain dooglus has put in a sizeable share, don't get me wrong...)

Last I checked I was still just holding out as the biggest investor.  I don't think that will last for long though.  Oh.  I just checked now and I've been overtaken.  I suspect I'll fall farther behind over time.

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June 27, 2013, 04:25:39 PM
 #88


In the mean time, this chart will give a rough indication of amount invested over time, with the following  caveats:



link broken by the way  Wink
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June 27, 2013, 04:31:47 PM
 #89

Such a change would only benefit the early investors insomuch as they already reaped the greater reward. It wouldn't give additional benefit to early investors on an ongoing basis (like how AM IPO holders have an enormous advantage due to 35x rise in share price making a larger barrier to entry for new investors on an absolute basis), because as the way it's set up, all just-dice investors will always share equally in benefit on each roll, proportional to the amount risked into the site bankroll. The longer you hold, the more the benefit is compounded. There's really no way to give a benefit to early investors at the expense of newer investors without some sort of literal bonus applied to accounts with an ID number smaller than {insert arbitrary cutoff here}. And that will do nothing except deter newer investors from coming in, which is bad - investors should want more investors to come in, because if the winning pool is large enough, it will encourage larger bets. Since all investors share equally in the profits of each bet proportionally to the amount bankrolled, it's a net win for all investors. Granted, you're not going to make much if you only hold .001% of the pool, since the pool size is variable, but over time it's better for everyone to have a large bankroll to attract larger bets. And everyone knows that the high rollers are what makes a casino profitable... basically, a big payout pool will result in a positive feedback loop, generating higher payouts attracting higher bets, while simultaneously generating higher losses and therefore higher fees for investors.

I've been toying with a concept of a gambling site that allows direct investing, but this is a MUCH more elegant solution than what I had in mind. Really, really brilliant implementation.

I don't like to quote such long posts, but I completely agree with you.  (Especially the last 4 words Wink).

I can't incentivise early investors without penalising late investors, but I don't want to.  Investors are investors, they're all equally valuable and so get equally rewarded.  The benefit of investing early is that you get to be 50% of the pool much more cheaply than if you invest later (assuming the pool size grows).  But then, your percentage of the pool doesn't even matter; all that matters is the ratio of (amount wagered) to (betting pool size).  I don't know which will be growing faster.

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June 27, 2013, 04:34:42 PM
 #90

Saw a 250BTC winning bet but I don't know how to post link to the bet ID.

You right-click on the underlined betid that you saw, and 'copy link address' or similar (browser dependant).

Then you paste it here, like this:

https://just-dice.com/roll/4830009

(bet 250 BTC at 95% chance to win, and won 10.53 BTC)

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June 27, 2013, 04:36:28 PM
 #91


In the mean time, this chart will give a rough indication of amount invested over time, with the following  caveats:



link broken by the way  Wink

Fixed now, in original post and this one.  I had that nagging feeling that I had forgotten something, but couldn't place it.

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June 27, 2013, 04:45:38 PM
 #92

What is it with people bot-testing sites like these (doing the 2-5 bets/second, like fleshy-knuckle is now)? Is it just to see if there is any significant stat vulnerability in the system?
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June 27, 2013, 04:48:57 PM
 #93

Also high on the list is allowing investors to select their own risk profile.  Currently every investor offers up 1% of his investment to be lost on each roll.  Some would like to be able to risk more per roll, getting a bigger share of the action with correspondingly greater risks.

I think with this feature it's very important to have some investment management tools, such as
- (email?) alerts when the investment goes below or above a certain threshold
- automatic divestment when above  a certain threshold
- an investment-only pay-in address - funds sent there are automatically invested.

This is needed for those that want to be their own "cold storage", that is, maintain
an investment of (for example) 1%  but keep most their funds off-site.

The alerts feature is the most important. Without it  it's easy to be losing money on higher-percentage investments.

And if you are wondering reading this - yes, it's possible to be losing money in the long run
being on the "house" side.
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June 27, 2013, 05:13:03 PM
 #94

Haven't seen this anywhere - but can you confirm how long withdrawals take?

Is there some amount above which there's a delay for manual processing?

I'd also recommend increasing your cut - somewhere between 5% and 25% seems the right sort of area to me.  As someone likely to use it I WANT you to be making significant profit.  An operator/issuer making significant profit is one of the single biggest factors reducing likelihood of scamming - if you can clearly make decent profit running it then there's a lot less reason for you to even consider stealing the bank.  Personally I stay well away from anything where I can't see how the operator is making a good return.

Quoting as think dooglus missed it - and would like an answer about withdrawals.
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June 27, 2013, 05:29:46 PM
 #95

What is it with people bot-testing sites like these (doing the 2-5 bets/second, like fleshy-knuckle is now)? Is it just to see if there is any significant stat vulnerability in the system?

That seems like a very inefficient and expensive way to get a sample of rolls.

I've published the algorithm used to generate the lucky numbers (in English on the 'Fair?' tab, and in code here).  So people can generate all the rolls they like offline for themselves.

I expect he's probably just come up with a system.  Smiley

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dooglus
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June 27, 2013, 05:32:52 PM
 #96

And if you are wondering reading this - yes, it's possible to be losing money in the long run
being on the "house" side.

Good points, and I will get to implementing those features, but I don't think they're necessary before I allow >1% risk.  If you don't want to risk >1% of your investment without the monitoring tools, do nothing and you'll stay at 1% risk.

It's possible for the house to have long losing runs, especially when most players make tiny bets.  The few who make the big bets pretty much affect the house's profitability.  In a long enough period I would expect the house to profit.  Wouldn't you?

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davout
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June 27, 2013, 05:42:27 PM
 #97

Planning on a GPG-signed investor contract ?
That would be nice, you're on OTC, you have a key, use it, that's what it's for.

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June 27, 2013, 05:42:42 PM
 #98

Haven't seen this anywhere - but can you confirm how long withdrawals take?

Is there some amount above which there's a delay for manual processing?

I'd also recommend increasing your cut - somewhere between 5% and 25% seems the right sort of area to me.  As someone likely to use it I WANT you to be making significant profit.  An operator/issuer making significant profit is one of the single biggest factors reducing likelihood of scamming - if you can clearly make decent profit running it then there's a lot less reason for you to even consider stealing the bank.  Personally I stay well away from anything where I can't see how the operator is making a good return.

Quoting as think dooglus missed it - and would like an answer about withdrawals.

I saw your post, intended to reply, and didn't.  Thanks for reposting.

The site refuses withdrawal requests for amounts it can't immediately fund from the hot wallet.  The hot wallet is kept at around 50 BTC, but will be less than that after a withdrawal.  I manually process deposits which fail due to insufficient funds in the hot wallet, by debiting the player account and paying directly from the funds on my computer.

Player's have to wait until their most recent deposit has enough confirmations before being allowed to withdraw.  The number of confirmations is the number of digits in the square of the integer part of their withdrawal request.  So a withdrawal of 31 BTC needs the deposit to have 3 confirmations, and a withdrawal of 32 BTC needs the deposit to have 4 confirmations.

As for increasing my cut, I made it low to attract investors.  If you think it's too low, such that it scares investors (he's not making enough so the business model must be "steal all the coins") then I can increase it (with 7 days' notice, as promised on the site).  I'm currently around 18% of the site's bankroll, and that's making me more than enough.

If lots of you would rather see me take a bigger percentage, then I'm game.  Smiley  I don't doing so makes me any more or less likely to "steal all the coins", but if it makes things look better to new investors then I'll do it.

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TheFuneral
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June 27, 2013, 05:44:33 PM
 #99

Great idea and beautiful execution.

The personal risk/reward percentage being changed would be an excellent idea.

Keep up the great work and don't steal my BTC Smiley.
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June 27, 2013, 05:50:56 PM
 #100

Everything is perfect about this so far the only thing that is missing is early ivestors reward or long term investor or something like that
The reward for long-term investors is that... they will have more money.
Not sure what is there to add.
I understand his concern.

The problem here is that with a normal security usually the early investors are taking a higher risk (i.e. you don't know if the company will be successfull) but will get a higher reward (i.e. they bought cheaper).
Here instead, buying early give you no benefit over buying later (when you already know if the company is successfull).

Except the "get coupons for reading Bitcointalk" approach to investment only works in limited cases. This isn't one of them.

I can appreciate the perceived need to turn very little investment into very large results, which flows from the discrepancy between people's actual status and their self-representations (bankers and whatnot). Nevertheless, as Bitcoin matures all that is going away. This is as it should be.

(like how AM IPO holders have an enormous advantage due to 35x rise in share price making a larger barrier to entry for new investors on an absolute basis)

This statement is just another way to say "AM is a bubble and the shares aren't worth what they go for". That this realization is slowly percolating even through the investors that'd be much better served thus should be perhaps a little worrying

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