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Author Topic: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game  (Read 434893 times)
Lohoris
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July 18, 2013, 12:48:32 PM
 #941

Primedice: 1% edge, Max payout 3 BTC (at 2X, goes up to 5 BTC at longer odds such as 10X)
Coinroll: 1% edge, Max payout 5 BTC (per the faq)
Satoshidice: 1.9% edge, Max payout variable (someone told me it increases the longer the bet odds similar to primedice)
Just-Dice: 1% Edge, Max Payout 1% Bank Roll (currently Max Payout just under 300 BTC)
Competition matters.

If our competitors have the same edge but an incredibly lower max payout, we should just increase the edge for bets with a higher payout.

Say 1% edge until 8 BTC payout, 2% edge if you go above that.

I can tweak both the house edge and the max profit.  Lots of people will complain that we'll lose players and whales that way.  Investors signed up for the 1%/1% deal, and that's what the deal still is.  I don't think it would be right to change it now without consulting the investors.  And I have no way of contacting the investors.  I don't even know the identity of the biggest investor - I've had literally no contact from them.

There are clearly people both for and against making any changes, so I think it's best to leave the parameters as they are all let the investors decide whether they want to continue to be invested.  I don't see what else I can do, really.
Of course you can contact the investors, just code a simple voting system inside your site, so that people may directly vote.

Votes would be weighted by min(amount invested when vote started, amount invested when vote ends).

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July 18, 2013, 01:01:43 PM
 #942

Again I have been accused of suspicious activity and IP address blocked- Dooglus, what gives? Tongue
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July 18, 2013, 01:11:48 PM
 #943

Primedice: 1% edge, Max payout 3 BTC (at 2X, goes up to 5 BTC at longer odds such as 10X)
Coinroll: 1% edge, Max payout 5 BTC (per the faq)
Satoshidice: 1.9% edge, Max payout variable (someone told me it increases the longer the bet odds similar to primedice)
Just-Dice: 1% Edge, Max Payout 1% Bank Roll (currently Max Payout just under 300 BTC)
Competition matters.

If our competitors have the same edge but an incredibly lower max payout, we should just increase the edge for bets with a higher payout.

Say 1% edge until 8 BTC payout, 2% edge if you go above that.

I can tweak both the house edge and the max profit.  Lots of people will complain that we'll lose players and whales that way.  Investors signed up for the 1%/1% deal, and that's what the deal still is.  I don't think it would be right to change it now without consulting the investors.  And I have no way of contacting the investors.  I don't even know the identity of the biggest investor - I've had literally no contact from them.

There are clearly people both for and against making any changes, so I think it's best to leave the parameters as they are all let the investors decide whether they want to continue to be invested.  I don't see what else I can do, really.
Of course you can contact the investors, just code a simple voting system inside your site, so that people may directly vote.

Votes would be weighted by min(amount invested when vote started, amount invested when vote ends).


Two reasons why this idea isn't worth it:

1) It's complex. Players want simple rules.
2) I'd rather keep 1% edge and have huge turnover from whales, then 2% edge and have no whales. 1% of 30,000 is better than 2% of 4,000.

Look at the stats. When there are no whales, turnover is usually under 5k. When there are whales, it is several times higher.
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July 18, 2013, 01:19:43 PM
 #944

I think Dooglus actually was one of the people who divested (someone in chat said so).

In that case, it must be true.

It is true.  Last night as I was trying to sleep the whale came back and was making large bets again.  I divested in order to try to get a little sleep.  Celeste's play is crazy.  Winning over 2k BTC in less than a minute by winning the max bet 9 times in a row?  I don't want to be on that ride.

Look at the shape of the profit/loss chart here: http://chromaticcreative.net/bitcoin/pcalc/jd.php  Simply crazy.

So in summary: there's a whale.  He seems to be very lucky.  The house edge doesn't seem to be big enough to beat him.  And he bets massive amounts.  Even the creator of the site isn't invested in it any more.

Dooglus, I'm wondering whether my analyses is correct that your decision to divest is emotional rather than rational?

The arguments you give above seem to be easily debunked by yourself too. But maybe you are unconsciously aware of something that makes good sense?
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July 18, 2013, 01:21:28 PM
 #945

i have invested 0.01 btc 2 weeks ago

invested:
0.09055477
(profit):
-0.00949296

maximum i had was 0.105

is it now good time to put 20 btc in this ?
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July 18, 2013, 01:38:46 PM
 #946

Competition matters.

If our competitors have the same edge but an incredibly lower max payout, we should just increase the edge for bets with a higher payout.

Say 1% edge until 8 BTC payout, 2% edge if you go above that.
2) I'd rather keep 1% edge and have huge turnover from whales, then 2% edge and have no whales. 1% of 30,000 is better than 2% of 4,000.
This is the opposite of what I suggested.

As I said, if whales have no other place to go, due to max payout sizes, they will come to us anyway: it's not like they have any choice, there's no competition.
So, it makes perfect sense to increase the edge in case the max payout goes beyond a certain threshold.

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July 18, 2013, 02:23:26 PM
 #947

How come then my base became 0 after I divested (about a week ago)?
And "principal" became negative, btw.
uid 1228

Presumably because you took out more than you put in.

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   1% House Edge
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July 18, 2013, 02:26:50 PM
 #948

Again I have been accused of suspicious activity and IP address blocked- Dooglus, what gives? Tongue

What account number, or IP address, please?

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   1% House Edge
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July 18, 2013, 02:32:48 PM
 #949

Competition matters.

If our competitors have the same edge but an incredibly lower max payout, we should just increase the edge for bets with a higher payout.

Say 1% edge until 8 BTC payout, 2% edge if you go above that.
2) I'd rather keep 1% edge and have huge turnover from whales, then 2% edge and have no whales. 1% of 30,000 is better than 2% of 4,000.
This is the opposite of what I suggested.

As I said, if whales have no other place to go, due to max payout sizes, they will come to us anyway: it's not like they have any choice, there's no competition.
So, it makes perfect sense to increase the edge in case the max payout goes beyond a certain threshold.

Sum it all up with "Progressive Rake", balance the house risk with more rake while being ahead of other gambling  sites.

GEMINI ACCOUNT REVIEW - Source of Funds Request
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July 18, 2013, 05:51:27 PM
 #950

Dooglus, I'm wondering whether my analyses is correct that your decision to divest is emotional rather than rational?

The arguments you give above seem to be easily debunked by yourself too. But maybe you are unconsciously aware of something that makes good sense?

I find it's much easier to be calm and rational about thing when there isn't a crazy whale winning thousands of coins from you...

Watching SDICE's ups and downs as a (mostly) disinterested 3rd party feels entirely different than watching the same ups and downs on a site that I'm responsible for.  It turns out I'm risk adverse.  Who knew!

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July 18, 2013, 06:39:50 PM
 #951

I like the idea of progressive house edge.
As in: 1% for up to 1% bankroll max profit
2% for   2-2% bankroll max profit
and so on up to 5%.

I'd like to see some 1000BTC bets. There won't be many of them,
so it won't be the house edge making all the difference, but the time it takes
to break the whale's spine - it'll be much faster.
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July 18, 2013, 06:52:00 PM
 #952

But max bet should be somewhere 0.1% -0.2% (and you know that whales are often smarter than the little guy betting).

The site has a fixed 1% edge. There is no such thing as a smart bet, big or small.

The smart bet is the one you don't make after a series of dumb bets got you up 900BTC.
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July 18, 2013, 10:47:52 PM
 #953

Watching SDICE's ups and downs as a (mostly) disinterested 3rd party feels entirely different than watching the same ups and downs on a site that I'm responsible for.  It turns out I'm risk adverse.  Who knew!

I can afford to lose what I have invested, but nevertheless don't really like looking at whales betting either. But I believe in Mathematics so I've decided to limit myself to checking my investment every few days rather than every few hours.

 
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July 19, 2013, 12:57:18 AM
 #954

I like the idea of progressive house edge.
As in: 1% for up to 1% bankroll max profit
2% for   2-2% bankroll max profit
and so on up to 5%.

I'd like to see some 1000BTC bets. There won't be many of them,
so it won't be the house edge making all the difference, but the time it takes
to break the whale's spine - it'll be much faster.

I had an idea like this before too. When the house is up 2% and over, house edge could be lowered slightly, say to 0.9%. When we are down, say below 0%, house edge could be raised, say to 1.1%.

It's still technically 1% all in all, but it helps to control wild swings in variance and therefore I think that it is a good idea.
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July 19, 2013, 01:43:02 AM
 #955

I like the idea of progressive house edge.
As in: 1% for up to 1% bankroll max profit
2% for   2-2% bankroll max profit
and so on up to 5%.

I'd like to see some 1000BTC bets. There won't be many of them,
so it won't be the house edge making all the difference, but the time it takes
to break the whale's spine - it'll be much faster.

I had an idea like this before too. When the house is up 2% and over, house edge could be lowered slightly, say to 0.9%. When we are down, say below 0%, house edge could be raised, say to 1.1%.

It's still technically 1% all in all, but it helps to control wild swings in variance and therefore I think that it is a good idea.

I don't like that idea. The site already has a way for individual investors to lock in their profits; it's the 'Divest' button.

 
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July 19, 2013, 03:05:05 AM
 #956

If you raise the house edge on bigger bets, you discourage the whales. It's different on a site that accepts bets pooled into a bigger prize. This dice site accepts single large bets from individuals. The individual is encouraged by the low house edge.

You raise it, he goes away. Where? I don't know where. He might come back if there are no other places to go, but are you counting on that?

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July 19, 2013, 04:15:59 AM
 #957

If you raise the house edge on bigger bets, you discourage the whales. It's different on a site that accepts bets pooled into a bigger prize. This dice site accepts single large bets from individuals. The individual is encouraged by the low house edge.

You raise it, he goes away. Where? I don't know where. He might come back if there are no other places to go, but are you counting on that?

Well, I don't think there is anywhere other than SatoshiDice that accepts large bets, and they have a 1.9% edge.

So it's plausible that having a house edge of somewhere between 1% and 1.9% for large bets wouldn't need to be scare the whales away.

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   1% House Edge
wolverine.ks
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July 19, 2013, 04:43:21 AM
 #958

how many people are typically in the chat? are multiple chats in the works?
wolverine.ks
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July 19, 2013, 08:31:54 AM
 #959

it was recently suggested in the JD chat that all investing and divesting should be made public for analysis and auditing purposes.

thoughts?
Lohoris
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July 19, 2013, 09:02:49 AM
 #960

If you raise the house edge on bigger bets, you discourage the whales. It's different on a site that accepts bets pooled into a bigger prize. This dice site accepts single large bets from individuals. The individual is encouraged by the low house edge.

You raise it, he goes away. Where? I don't know where. He might come back if there are no other places to go, but are you counting on that?

Well, I don't think there is anywhere other than SatoshiDice that accepts large bets, and they have a 1.9% edge.

So it's plausible that having a house edge of somewhere between 1% and 1.9% for large bets wouldn't need to be scare the whales away.
Exactly.

What about 1.6% for bets of 8 BTC or over?

1LohorisJie8bGGG7X4dCS9MAVsTEbzrhu
DefaultTrust is very BAD.
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