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Author Topic: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game  (Read 434893 times)
Bugpowder
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July 09, 2013, 03:25:48 AM
 #401

What about splitting the cold wallet up into smaller amounts and giving them to other established members of the bitcoin community? I trust that dooglus is up to his eyes in backups, but this would also remove some of the incentive to take the money and run. The passwords for those accounts could use samir secret sharing so dooglus wouldnt have to trust these other people as well.

There are extreme risks in this.

I hasten to remind everyone that this is precisely what destroyed CPA. We split up our funds and gave them to five established members of the community. Ultimately we got less than 40% of our money back. Remember, these were the best people in the community at the time. What happened later only proved the original assumption to be a mistake.

The other lesson learned was about chaining counterparty risk. Like Hashking -- many people invested with HashKing simply because he swore up and down he wasn't in pirate. How can dooglus stop people from investing back into just-dice? Counterparty risk magnifies your risk. If dooglus gave me 5,000 BTC to hold on to, and I invested it into just-dice, a situation where he needs his money back is precisely the situation where I cannot repay it.

I was thinking about this days ago, approaching Dooglus with such an offer. But given the choice I think I might prefer not to take his money and retain the ability to invest into just-dice.

Usagi makes some very good points here.  Particularly recycling of the coins. OH jeeze that would be bad.
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Bugpowder
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July 09, 2013, 03:30:09 AM
 #402

probably meant "a little over 1%."
The optimal for SD to risk on each bet is 1.9% - their house edge.
Probably they know about it and do exactly that.

You would think so wouldn't you?

But they offer a 64000x payout with a max bet of 0.1 BTC.  That's a 6400 BTC payout.  Erik claims that the SDICE betting pool is made up entirely of a loan of "about 6100 BTC" from himself.  That means they're risking over 100% of the pool.

I doubt there is a specific bet pool. This is simply evidence that Erik is a scammer and wanted to claim 100% of the dividends for a month so he could turn the whale bots back on and sell some more shares without costing him anything.  He just pulled that number out of his ass because it was just a bit more than the total profit for the month.


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July 09, 2013, 03:33:27 AM
 #403

Would escrow work? There are a few people on these forums who hold large sums of coins. And there is at least one who is offering to hold > 10k to > 100k. The problem again, is trust or incentive to not disappear, or whatever, and then there is the possible drama from all the accusations of fraud, false or not.

I mean, it is dooglus own site, the investors decided to put their money there. That is their decision. If they want to make dooglus have someone else hold their coins, they merely remove financial responsibility from one person to another.

I prefer a single counterparty.  I trust dooglus as least as much as any other escrow provider.
trout
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July 09, 2013, 04:12:37 PM
 #404

probably meant "a little over 1%."
The optimal for SD to risk on each bet is 1.9% - their house edge.
Probably they know about it and do exactly that.

You would think so wouldn't you?

But they offer a 64000x payout with a max bet of 0.1 BTC.  That's a 6400 BTC payout.  Erik claims that the SDICE betting pool is made up entirely of a loan of "about 6100 BTC" from himself.  That means they're risking over 100% of the pool.

that's odd. May be he has some different understanding of what "betting pool" means.
Otherwise, he'd be essentially saying - "if you win that 0.1 bet on 64000x then I'm broke and can't pay you."
That doesn't seem reasonable. At the same time, SD has made over 70k btc profit (which I know only thanks to your graphs), and their max bets has been growing over time  - I'd expect, in accordance with the total profit.
But then, some of the profit is paid to shareholders, so I don't really know what estimate to use.


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July 09, 2013, 04:14:04 PM
 #405

Usagi makes some very good points here.  Particularly recycling of the coins. OH jeeze that would be bad.

If I was going to invest the cold wallet coins somewhere, I think I would have to invest them in Just-Dice.  I know they're safe from theft there.

But that halves everyone else's profits and vastly increases my risk of ruin.  It would be as if every investor was risking 2% of their investment per roll, and giving half their profits to me.

I can achieve the same effect with no risk by increasing the commission to 50%.  The investors still lose half their profit, but the max bet isn't dangerously inflated.

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daserpent1
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July 09, 2013, 05:45:44 PM
 #406

Just invested a little portion of my btc in Just-Dice. Lets see how it goes Smiley
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July 09, 2013, 06:16:21 PM
 #407

Just invested a little portion of my btc in Just-Dice. Lets see how it goes Smiley

My prediction: up and down.  Smiley

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wolverine.ks
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July 09, 2013, 06:21:34 PM
 #408

Just invested a little portion of my btc in Just-Dice. Lets see how it goes Smiley

My prediction: up and down.  Smiley

my prediction: down and up... and up.....
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July 09, 2013, 08:56:22 PM
 #409

Dooglus, what steps have you taken (if any) to protect yourself from the 'wrench' cryptanalysis method (of xkcd fame: http://xkcd.com/538/) ?

There are plenty of people worth millions of dollars wandering the streets without too much worry I guess - but then, they aren't sitting on private keys which allow near-anonymous transfer of vast wealth instantly.

On the one hand - I'd like to see you being open about your identity, but on the other - it's a risk.



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MSantori
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July 09, 2013, 09:25:04 PM
 #410

Dooglas: Sorry if this has been covered already, but are you operating an incorporated business? If so, in what jurisdiction is that business located (state/country)?  Also, where are you personally located?

Marco Santori is a lawyer, but not your lawyer, and this is not legal advice.  If you do have specific questions, though, please don't hesitate to PM me.  We've learned this forum isn't 100% secure, so you might prefer to email me.  Maybe I can help!  Depending upon your jurisdiction, this post might be construed as attorney advertising, so: attorney advertising Smiley
nimda
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July 09, 2013, 09:49:36 PM
 #411

Dooglas: Sorry if this has been covered already, but are you operating an incorporated business? If so, in what jurisdiction is that business located (state/country)?  Also, where are you personally located?
Not a corp, Canada.

I recommend asking me for a signature from my GPG key before doing a trade. I will NEVER deny such a request.
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July 10, 2013, 12:51:23 AM
 #412

Dooglas: Sorry if this has been covered already, but are you operating an incorporated business? If so, in what jurisdiction is that business located (state/country)?  Also, where are you personally located?
Nice try, IRS.

Those are actually very relevant questions for a paradigm where jurisdiction is based on geography.

I think one of the most disruptive aspects of Bitcoin though is that, combined with other information technologies, it allows individuals to completely disintermediate from governments where jurisdiction is derived based on geography. In other words, it allows people to completely untether from the nation-state which as Harvard Business Review has observed is already an increasing trend for these economically and socially obsolete institutions.

thy
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July 10, 2013, 03:21:23 AM
 #413

Dooglas: Sorry if this has been covered already, but are you operating an incorporated business? If so, in what jurisdiction is that business located (state/country)?  Also, where are you personally located?
haha, whitch USgov organisation are you working for MSantori ?
How about you read all his posts if your really interested to know that, he's only made 3502 posts sofar....

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July 10, 2013, 03:32:23 AM
 #414

Cold wallet keep growing, in a few years all the bitcoins are in there.
mechs
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July 10, 2013, 03:36:23 AM
 #415

Why has 1% of the total invested been chosen as the max bet amount?  It seems very conservative.  Would be nice if there could be a voting mechanism (with weight of votes based on weight of % of bankroll your investment represents) where investors select what they would like the max bet to be (maybe between 0% and 5% being choices). Then the max bet can be chosen in real-time as a weighted average.  Any thoughts?
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July 10, 2013, 03:52:35 AM
 #416

Warning: stop investing money into just-dice! It may be a scam. My friend with 7000 bitcoins invested says that dooglus has been ignoring him for over 4 days now.

How is your friend with 7000 btc attempting to contact dooglus? I recommend that your friend use the contact address found near the bottom of the FAQ tab on the Just-Dice site. To date no such contact attempt has been made.

Deb

mechs
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July 10, 2013, 03:54:47 AM
 #417

Why doesn't your friend just withdraw his investment? 

Warning: stop investing money into just-dice! It may be a scam. My friend with 7000 bitcoins invested says that dooglus has been ignoring him for over 4 days now.
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July 10, 2013, 04:15:34 AM
 #418

Dooglas: Sorry if this has been covered already, but are you operating an incorporated business? If so, in what jurisdiction is that business located (state/country)?  Also, where are you personally located?
Nice try, IRS.

Those are actually very relevant questions for a paradigm where jurisdiction is based on geography.

I think one of the most disruptive aspects of Bitcoin though is that, combined with other information technologies, it allows individuals to completely disintermediate from governments where jurisdiction is derived based on geography. In other words, it allows people to completely untether from the nation-state which as Harvard Business Review has observed is already an increasing trend for these economically and socially obsolete institutions.

I agree completely.  For better or for worse, though, laws and jurisdiction are still geographical.  I'm just trying to gauge regulatory risk, that's all.  I'm not looking for a street address or anything.

Marco Santori is a lawyer, but not your lawyer, and this is not legal advice.  If you do have specific questions, though, please don't hesitate to PM me.  We've learned this forum isn't 100% secure, so you might prefer to email me.  Maybe I can help!  Depending upon your jurisdiction, this post might be construed as attorney advertising, so: attorney advertising Smiley
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July 10, 2013, 04:19:04 AM
 #419

Dooglus, what steps have you taken (if any) to protect yourself from the 'wrench' cryptanalysis method (of xkcd fame: http://xkcd.com/538/) ?

There are plenty of people worth millions of dollars wandering the streets without too much worry I guess - but then, they aren't sitting on private keys which allow near-anonymous transfer of vast wealth instantly.

On the one hand - I'd like to see you being open about your identity, but on the other - it's a risk.

His identity isn't hard to find, but a little bit of digging allows you to guess that he's in Canada, that he's done some work on some other projects before bitcoin, and if that's all you have you know your coins are safe with him.

Like you said, there are plenty of people worth millions of dollars wandering the streets WITHOUT any extra physical security. On the other hand, there are people who are regular office / blue / white collar job workers who are armed on their own, depending on country of residence and the laws regarding personal protection.

As a personal example, I have more info already out in the internet about me than I care to have, but it's already there and I can't take that back. Therefore I'm not adding any more to it, but I am relatively safe where I am, considering that most people don't really know me as the guy with lots of bitcoins.

But as far as the internet is concerned, he could always say he's in the middle of some island where he is his own government (sealand? floating city / casino?) ... until bitcoin is defined or regulated, it is a grey area. Sooner or later it will be defined (FinCen, etc.). I'm sure he'll think of something when that time comes.

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July 10, 2013, 04:33:33 AM
 #420

Warning: stop investing money into just-dice! It may be a scam. My friend with 7000 bitcoins invested says that dooglus has been ignoring him for over 4 days now.

I can't figure out whether:

a) your friend really has been trying to contact me and has the wrong address or his emails are going to my spam folder or something or
b) you're a Just-Dice investor who doesn't want your investment diluted by further investment or
c) you're a fan of a competing dice site and want to damage Just-Dice

Primedice is provably fair and legit. I love primedice.

Which is it?

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