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Author Topic: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game  (Read 433269 times)
mechs
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July 17, 2013, 10:15:14 PM
 #901

So maybe you can admit that the parameters need to be changed if you no longer even invested in your own site and those who have stayed invested are down 20%? I honestly think you should both tweak the edge up and max profit down (or atleast just the max profit down) and limit new investors so us sitting on huge loses do not get diluted so badly we can never re-coup.

I can tweak both the house edge and the max profit.  Lots of people will complain that we'll lose players and whales that way.  Investors signed up for the 1%/1% deal, and that's what the deal still is.  I don't think it would be right to change it now without consulting the investors.  And I have no way of contacting the investors.  I don't even know the identity of the biggest investor - I've had literally no contact from them.

There are clearly people both for and against making any changes, so I think it's best to leave the parameters as they are all let the investors decide whether they want to continue to be invested.  I don't see what else I can do, really.
Dooglas, you are not invested in you own site! Noone else has a max profit even in the same ballpark as J-D with a 1% Edge. I am sure the big investor is not exactly happy either. It really lowers confidence a lot whent he sites owner has divested.  Faith in your proclaimations is why I stayed invested and many others I am sure.  Nothing lowers confidence more than the owner not believing in his own creation. 
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stripykitteh
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July 17, 2013, 10:18:56 PM
 #902

There are clearly people both for and against making any changes, so I think it's best to leave the parameters as they are all let the investors decide whether they want to continue to be invested.  I don't see what else I can do, really.

The most minimal change I'd be happy with would be to leave the house edge where it is but lower the max bet to 0.5%. Growth wouldn't be affected much but variance would be a lot lower.
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July 17, 2013, 10:19:19 PM
 #903

at least max bet should be lower or celeste will come back to screw us all over, and it's been proven from times to times that the current param can't stop him.
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July 17, 2013, 10:22:18 PM
 #904

funny how very recently everybody wanted option to increase the max amount risked per roll, now after one unlucky downswing everybody wants to decrease it.
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July 17, 2013, 10:22:46 PM
 #905

at least max bet should be lower or celeste will come back to screw us all over, and it's been proven from times to times that the current param can't stop him.

You don't understand variance.

On the contrary, I wish celeste would make 1,000,000 max bets.
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July 17, 2013, 10:25:25 PM
 #906

why should dooglas leave his money in? the whole point of investing and divesting is buy low, sell high. he'll be back when he thinks its a good investment opportunity for his risk appetite.

you might think the same, or the opposite, and thats fine. a whale could come in and lose big....

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July 17, 2013, 10:27:59 PM
 #907

we can have an onsite poll, big investors have more weight than tiny ones.
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July 17, 2013, 10:42:58 PM
 #908

why should dooglas leave his money in? the whole point of investing and divesting is buy low, sell high. he'll be back when he thinks its a good investment opportunity for his risk appetite.

you might think the same, or the opposite, and thats fine. a whale could come in and lose big....


lol, you cant be serious. explain to me exactly what is your investing/disinvesting strategy when the EV is fixed to 1%. you are implying that you should buy low and sell high, how exactly are you going to do that when these highs and lows are based 100% on luck with slightly upward trend so there is no way to predict them.
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July 17, 2013, 10:45:11 PM
 #909

So maybe you can admit that the parameters need to be changed if you no longer even invested in your own site and those who have stayed invested are down 20%? I honestly think you should both tweak the edge up and max profit down (or atleast just the max profit down) and limit new investors so us sitting on huge loses do not get diluted so badly we can never re-coup.

I can tweak both the house edge and the max profit.  Lots of people will complain that we'll lose players and whales that way.  Investors signed up for the 1%/1% deal, and that's what the deal still is.  I don't think it would be right to change it now without consulting the investors.  And I have no way of contacting the investors.  I don't even know the identity of the biggest investor - I've had literally no contact from them.

There are clearly people both for and against making any changes, so I think it's best to leave the parameters as they are all let the investors decide whether they want to continue to be invested.  I don't see what else I can do, really.
Dooglas, you are not invested in you own site! Noone else has a max profit even in the same ballpark as J-D with a 1% Edge. I am sure the big investor is not exactly happy either. It really lowers confidence a lot whent he sites owner has divested.  Faith in your proclaimations is why I stayed invested and many others I am sure.  Nothing lowers confidence more than the owner not believing in his own creation. 

Faulty logic. If the big investor was unhappy he would have said so by now - or divested.

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July 17, 2013, 10:47:37 PM
 #910

Is it possible for JD  to have, let's say, three different bankrolls?  Bankroll A for investors that want 0.1% max profit per bet, Bankroll B for investors that want 0.5% max profit per bet, and Bankroll C for investors that want 1% max profit per bet.  When a whale comes along, only BTC in Bankroll C is at risk.  People would be able to allocate their investment in each bankroll according to their risk tolerance.

Edit:  Or should I say "variance tolerance"? Smiley

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July 17, 2013, 10:57:47 PM
 #911

HurtK : clearly a whale can upset the 1% average fairly easily. until the whale has gone, the variance will be a lot wilder than 1%. see a whale, divest. reinvest afterwards.

its not rocket science...

(now, im not advocating that strategy, I dont use it, and im not invested in JD at all. just an impartial POV to answer your question, and play a little devils advocate Wink )

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RationalSpeculator
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July 17, 2013, 11:03:22 PM
 #912

Dooglas, you are not invested in you own site! Noone else has a max profit even in the same ballpark as J-D with a 1% Edge. I am sure the big investor is not exactly happy either. It really lowers confidence a lot whent he sites owner has divested.  Faith in your proclaimations is why I stayed invested and many others I am sure.  Nothing lowers confidence more than the owner not believing in his own creation.  

Agreed that it is not positive that dooglus also divested. But dooglus is not immune for emotions taking over.

From what I see the website still works as expected. The house only lost -0.6%. This is still nothing out of the ordinary considering it should normally be only +1%. I suppose the same has happened with sdice in the past?

I see an investment opportunity if the whale continues to play. He is betting on average 50k btc per day. The others are averaging 10k btc per day, so on average 60k per day. That is an expected profit of 600 btc per day. With 20k invested that means an expected profit of 3% per day on your capital invested. This ofcourse is only possible because the amount of btc bet went up dramatically while the amount of invested capital dropped.

Seems that here too fear creates opportunity while greed does not.

(Is my logic correct?)
  

 
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July 17, 2013, 11:05:49 PM
 #913

Dooglas, you are not invested in you own site! Noone else has a max profit even in the same ballpark as J-D with a 1% Edge. I am sure the big investor is not exactly happy either. It really lowers confidence a lot whent he sites owner has divested.  Faith in your proclaimations is why I stayed invested and many others I am sure.  Nothing lowers confidence more than the owner not believing in his own creation. 

Agreed that it is not positive that dooglus also divested. But dooglus is not immune for emotions taking over.

From what I see the website still works as expected. The house only lost -0.6%. This is still nothing out of the ordinary considering it should normally be only +1%. I suppose the same has happened with sdice in the past?

I see a decent investment opportunity if the whale continues to play. He is betting on average 50k btc per day. The others are averaging 10k btc per day, so on average 60k per day. That is an expected profit of 600 btc per day. With 20k invested that means an expected profit of 3% per day on your capital invested. This ofcourse is only possible because the amount of btc bet went up dramatically while the amount of invested capital dropped.

Seems that here too fear creates opportunity while greed does not.
  

 

Stop making sense.
RationalSpeculator
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July 17, 2013, 11:08:26 PM
 #914

Stop making sense.

lol Smiley
wolverine.ks
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July 17, 2013, 11:10:32 PM
 #915

maybe im reading it wrong, but why is the number for the largest investor the same for the last 2 weeks?

7614.39434840

the largest investor just happens to like that number?
RationalSpeculator
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July 17, 2013, 11:15:49 PM
 #916

maybe im reading it wrong, but why is the number for the largest investor the same for the last 2 weeks?

7614.39434840

the largest investor just happens to like that number?

Where can you see that?
thy
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July 17, 2013, 11:41:13 PM
 #917

maybe im reading it wrong, but why is the number for the largest investor the same for the last 2 weeks?

7614.39434840

the largest investor just happens to like that number?

Where can you see that?
OP and i guess it must be a typo or it's the invested amount at the time of investment and not what the investment is worth on the 7 july and 14 july.
The value 575.00000000 also exists both dates for example

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July 17, 2013, 11:45:20 PM
 #918

Is there any reason for my being banned from the site for the hour? It has now been over 2 hours now. The banning of IP addresses was stupid. I was going to divest again before Celeste had his winning steak!! So why was I accused of having suspicious activity?

EDIT-  I cant believe the luck celeste has been having on the site! I dread to see how much my profits have gone into the red!   Undecided

Kaedi
mechs
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July 17, 2013, 11:53:16 PM
 #919

Dooglas, I have a question:

  Before I divested, I asked Deb if I reinvested later would my loss stay on the account so I would not pay commission until I was in profit again and she said that is correct.  However, in the chat, some of the players insist that once you divest, your loss is wiped clean and when you reinvest, you pay the 5% comission since the reinvestment, regardless of whether the account itself is in profit again.

As an example, say I invested 100 BTC and lost 12 BTC.  I divest the remaining 88 BTC.  My account as a 12 BTC lost.
If a month later I re-invest the 88 BTC I previously divested, and then my account goes up 12 BTC to 100 BTC (my original investment) from my share of site profits would I pay any commision on that 12 BTC or not until I re-coup my original investment.

Please clarify
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July 18, 2013, 12:25:43 AM
 #920

All the people saying "you don't understand variance" seem to, themselves, not understand it; the maths depends on 'perfect conditions' - in this case that there are many whales and that they bet constantly and consistently. That isn't the case. We need a few dozen (or a few hundred) more whales and then you could trust the maths.

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