Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game

[dooglus]

Yay, bitcointalk is back up.  Dooglus, have you thought about implementing my method for risk management of investors?

I wish there was a clearly best way of implementing variable risk for investors.

Can you explain why 'your way' is better than the way I've described?

I think the main difference between the two ways is that I'm saying that every bet should be shared between investors according to how much they are willing to contribute to the maximum profit on the site, and you're saying that investors should share the action only based on their amount invested, disregarding how much each is willing to risk.  Is that a fair summary of our positions?

[dooglus]

Dooglus what are you working on these days?

Mostly I'm firefighting.

The site has been running very slowly recently.  I increased the size of the disk on the server, since it's been getting pretty full recently.  I also created a new bitcoin wallet, since the old one was getting very big, and causing the server to spend a lot of time checking every incoming transaction against the large list of addresses it owned.  I'm still getting a large number of support requests each day.  People claiming their PC was compromised and asking for refunds of bets the attacker made.  People forgetting their google-auth code, or just typing 2FA codes wrongly too many times and getting locked out.  People depositing to the wrong address, because they forgot to log in before requesting a deposit address.  People withdrawing directly from JD to other sites which automatically refund winnings to the sender's address, no realising that the sender's address on a JD withdrawal is effectively random.  People complaining that the roll verifier no longer works since I changed the roll generation algorithm.  People complaining that they can't bot the site because their bot can't navigate the checks put in place by the cloudflare DDoS protection.

That kind of stuff.  It's fun. 

User visible changes:

* you can specify which bets get spammed to the chat tab now, using 3 new settings in the account tab.
* the withdraw dialog no longer defaults the withdrawal address to the last one you used (in case you end up spending 2 hours in a dumpster)
* the withdraw dialog now tells you not to withdraw to satoshidice, bit365, etc. because the sender address won't be right
* the deposit dialog now tells you that deposits to addresses generated before last Saturday are no longer processed automatically.
* users can now disable google-auth themselves from the account tab, without having to contact support
* fixed a bug where investor profit was including commission charged during 'divest' operations (but not during the regular commission run)
* added an admin command to have the site periodically post messages in the chat
* changed the roll generation algorithm, so that the hmac input changes by more than 1 bit per roll
* added code to allow users to be blocked from gambling by IP address

Nothing very important really.  But I am keeping busy...

[shitaifan2013]

i heard someone placed a 800k usd bet and lost?

pretty crazy

here you go, if you wanna know the whole madness 

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1npmaq/highroller_loses_800k_with_allin_bet_on_justdice/

I'm also working on an article about that topic for the JD blog (http://just-dice.blogspot.ca), but need some more days.

cheers,
shitaifan/drfred

[wachtwoord]

i heard someone placed a 800k usd bet and lost?

pretty crazy

Yup Mech bet 7k BTC @95%. That was his 12th bet in a row and the first one he lost. He started with 1700BTC.

[Mitchell]

i heard someone placed a 800k usd bet and lost?

pretty crazy

Yup Mech bet 7k BTC @95%. That was his 12th bet in a row and the first one he lost. He started with 1700BTC.

Like I said before, he will come back and lose it

[Mythoughts]

Suggestions and things I noticed within the last days:

- there is sometimes a lag of several seconds where no bets are being processed. I do not know how to solve that, just that it annoys gamblers. This should be a priority to solve. Maybe dont update unnecessary stats so often (i.e. only update gain/loss of investors every 5 min; only the total bankroll is required to process gambling bets), maybe use memcached more on static values, etc.

- lets improve the experience of gamblers. There's lots of working stuff that we can learn from online games, for example:

   - Add a nice sound on winning bets (like the sound of a group of clapping people, etc). Make it possible to disable the sound.

    - Add badges/achievements for a set of actions or outcomes. Display those near the chat name and/or on the front page. Add an achievement frame where others can see who has earned an achievement the last couple of minutes/hours. Possible achievements: "The Master of Luck" (i.e. for winning a bet which had a probability of <0.01% or so), "Cant be stopped!" (i.e. for winning 10 bets in a row with no more than 49.5% probability each), "Balls of steel" (i.e. for betting >20 btc on a single roll with no more than 33% prob.), "Robbing the house" (still up more than 10 btc after > 10k bets), etc, etc. There's infinite possibilities. And this stuff has a huge effect on activity, as proven by almost any current MMORPG or browsergame.

- the chat needs to be restricted some more. Cant have people trying to scam others (posting bad links, maybe to infected files?) or investors behaving badly towards gamblers. I dont really know how to solve that, maybe only allow chatting for people who wagered at least 0.1 btc at some point or something?

I believe the first one has been solved already. Also the bad-chat-behavior seems to have vanished, once the site was on a winning track again.
Dont like the other ideas?

[meta.p02]

I think some prefer a clean design with not many bells and whistles. I don't know, maybe we need to hold a vote?

[nimda]

i heard someone placed a 800k usd bet and lost?

pretty crazy

Yup Mech bet 7k BTC @95%. That was his 12th bet in a row and the first one he lost. He started with 1700BTC.

Making up for lots of other losses. The law of averages takes longer with more volatility.

Is anyone whose investment has stayed constant still in the red due to dilation?

[chriswilmer]

i heard someone placed a 800k usd bet and lost?

pretty crazy

Yup Mech bet 7k BTC @95%. That was his 12th bet in a row and the first one he lost. He started with 1700BTC.

Does anyone know if Mechs is OK... I mean, sounds like a potential suicide-risk situation...

[wickedgoodtrader]

I think some prefer a clean design with not many bells and whistles. I don't know, maybe we need to hold a vote?

I'm new to the site as of today and have to say I've had a hard time taking my eyes away from the screen. I feel like all the changing numbers almost create a sensory load that gamblers are looking for. Or at least a sensory load that keep you around whether you like them or not.

[Mythoughts]

I think some prefer a clean design with not many bells and whistles. I don't know, maybe we need to hold a vote?

No need for a vote, imo.
It's Doog's and Deb's site, if they dont like it, there's no point to add it. It should stay their baby.

[Keyser Soze]

Is anyone whose investment has stayed constant still in the red due to dilation?

I believe anyone who has stayed in for the past few weeks will require a lot more site profit to come back to even on their investment. Personally, I need about 7000 more site profit to get back to even.

[GOB]

Does anyone know if Mechs is OK... I mean, sounds like a potential suicide-risk situation...

I am also worried about this. Has anybody heard from him? Has he been on the chat?

[geofflosophy]

Is anyone whose investment has stayed constant still in the red due to dilation?

I believe anyone who has stayed in for the past few weeks will require a lot more site profit to come back to even on their investment. Personally, I need about 7000 more site profit to get back to even.

Yep, that's probably about what I need as well. I'm still about 17% down

[pascal257]

I am 20% down. I wonder who is actually at a profit

I was lucky enough to jump on the train when the site was even.

[meta.p02]

I am 20% down. I wonder who is actually at a profit

Me... I invested during one of the times it was -4,400. Never touched it since.

me   0.62825910   0.05880680   

[Jls.]

I am 20% down. I wonder who is actually at a profit

First invested in June when site profit was ~ +1600.

Stayed all in until being -10% late in September because of Nakowa... then decided to try my luck catching the waves with chunks of my funds.

I managed pretty well, since I'm +11% with site profit being around +1200.

I'm done dayvesting since, but I'm still sorry for those who stayed invested all along (as I used to).

[manrus]

How calculate profit per day in % ?

[willphase]

How calculate profit per day in % ?

daily profit = ( daily_wagered * house_edge ) * house_cut * ( your_investment / total_investment )

% profit per day = ( daily_profit / your_investment ) * 100

% profit per year = ( (1 + % profit per day ) ^ 365) - 1 ) * 100

solve for:

house_cut = 0.9 (10% cut)
daily_wagered = 15,000 (source)
house_edge = 0.01 (1% edge)
total_investment = 55,597

daily profit = ( 15,000 * 0.01 ) * 0.9 * ( your_investment / 55597 ) = 0.00242819 * your_investment

% profit per day = 0.00242819 / your_investment * your_investment = 0.242%

% profit per year = ( (1.00242819 ^ 365 ) - 1 ) * 100 = ( 2.4235055085 - 1 ) * 100 = 142%

Will

[wachtwoord]

I am 20% down. I wonder who is actually at a profit

I'm up 5.6% and cashed out to give out a loan at a higher APR than the expected return from the site based on normal (non-whale) volume.