Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game

[drawingthesun]

Two questions about the ads at the top of the site:

- are they pay per click, pay per impression, flat-rate, or what?
- were does the revenue they generate go?

This is not a complaint, just questions : )

Dooglus runs an auction thread and the money made goes to running the site and marketing expenses. Its not pay per click or anything like that, people just bid on the next weeks spots in the auction thread.

EDIT: https://bitcointalk.org/?topic=246989

[Lohoris]

Two questions about the ads at the top of the site:

- are they pay per click, pay per impression, flat-rate, or what?
- were does the revenue they generate go?

This is not a complaint, just questions : )

Dooglus runs an auction thread and the money made goes to running the site and marketing expenses. Its not pay per click or anything like that, people just bid on the next weeks spots in the auction thread.

EDIT: https://bitcointalk.org/?topic=246989

Thanks : )

[dooglus]

Dooglus runs an auction thread and the money made goes to running the site and marketing expenses. Its not pay per click or anything like that, people just bid on the next weeks spots in the auction thread.

EDIT: https://bitcointalk.org/?topic=246989

The 'advertise here' ad is just a link to the forum auction thread.
The 'seals' ad is my affiliate link - they don't pay for the ad, but they pay me when people sign up through it and play.
The 'bit365' ad is the winner of last week's auction.

Sometimes people contact me asking for a price to buy an ad for a whole month, or whatever, and sometimes we come to an arrangement.  I never run more than 5 ads in rotation at a time, so you're guaranteed to get your ad displayed at least 40% of the time the page is loaded, and usually it's 66.67% of the time.

[petrescuerz]

New blog post! http://just-dice.blogspot.ca/2013/10/klyes-saga-and-more.html

Deb

[dooglus]

I was curious about how investors will have done on the site if they invested at the start and never touched their investment since.  I wasn't forward thinking enough to make such an account for myself on day 1, but just looked through the DB and found an investor who did just that:



He invested 0.0107 on the first day, and as of right now has .0111 invested.  At the end of last week he was running a small loss, so long-term investors have just broken even this week.

Investors who got in a little later when the profit was positive will likely not be in the black yet.

[dooglus]

Here's an update after this week's commission:

[dooglus]

After the forum was down for a week recently, I decided it makes more sense to post the weekly stats on investment amounts to the blog rather than updating the OP of this thread each week.

So here's this week's info:

http://just-dice.blogspot.ca/2013/10/investment-amounts.html

Note also that I'll be reporting the investment amounts rather than the base amounts because the whole point is to prove that I'm holding the correct amount of funds.  The base amounts are higher than the actual invested amounts after the site has lost a bunch, so they're not useful for proving lack of fractional reserve.

[organofcorti]

After the forum was down for a week recently, I decided it makes more sense to post the weekly stats on investment amounts to the blog rather than updating the OP of this thread each week.

So here's this week's info:

http://just-dice.blogspot.ca/2013/10/investment-amounts.html

Note also that I'll be reporting the investment amounts rather than the base amounts because the whole point is to prove that I'm holding the correct amount of funds.  The base amounts are higher than the actual invested amounts after the site has lost a bunch, so they're not useful for proving lack of fractional reserve.

Thanks dooglus - I think many investors are forgetting that particular possibility. A reminder every now and then is helpful.

While I'm on the subject of "helpful", do you have a feed for the change in site profit over time? Something in the same format as https://just-dice.com/wagered.txt would be handy. I'd like to try a GARCH model for site profits, conditioned on bet volume. It might not be possible but I won't know until I give it a go

[shitaifan2013]

@organo:

maybe this is what you're looking for? http://www.just-dice.bitcoinproject.net/

was set up recently by a JD user called "tiCer". I think he's trying to get the older data from doog atm to implement it.

[organofcorti]

@organo:

maybe this is what you're looking for? http://www.just-dice.bitcoinproject.net/

was set up recently by a JD user called "tiCer". I think he's trying to get the older data from doog atm to implement it.

If he can get the older data, then that's just what I'm after - thanks for the link.

[jeffshed]

can't y'all see you are getting rolled by dooglus.

Nakowa =dooglus

He's been creating fake accounts
winning
now he's invested what he's won.

the maths are the proof
to be at 176,377,000+ bets and to be at .11. C'mon guys have some common sense.

oh well he kind of deserves it to pull off something so clean.

[pascal257]

can't y'all see you are getting rolled by dooglus.

Nakowa =dooglus

He's been creating fake accounts
winning
now he's invested what he's won.

the maths are the proof

oh well he kind of deserves it to pull off something so clean.

Damn, why didn't someone else already think of that

[jeffshed]

i just feel a little bit sorry for people still invested on the site.....

oh well guess he doesn't need other people invested now

[organofcorti]

<snip>
the maths are the proof
<snip>

Is that all the math you offer? Really? You're that confident in your math skills

The thing is that a brownian motion model predicts similar variance to that which we have seen. The max percentage would need to be ~ a tenth what it is now to reduce variance to something more predictable.

[oda.krell]

1) People, stop quoting trolls.


2) @dooglus: Did you get a chance to look at the (quoted below) ideas to get more traffic/widen the player base?

[...]

Volume is a bit uneven: on some days volume (even without a whale) is well above 20k, on other days it hovers around 10k. Since individual profits (on average) depend on the site volume and the total amount invested, I'd say that right now, at 50k invested vs. 10k to 20k daily volume, we're doing okay, but could do better perhaps.

Is this something you are considering, dooglus? How to increase wagering volume, by getting the site more exposure? Or implementing features to bind gamblers to the site?

I remember someone in here posted (a few pages ago) an idea about 'badges' and 'achievements' gamblers can unlock. What do you think about it? Personally, I like the idea, if it's done well and doesn't look tacky.

What else... I remember someone suggesting earlier that the Chinese market for gambling is huge. So gettin the site translated into Chinese, and advertising it, could give a boost to volume.

[Progressive]

Thanks for your great posts.

Last post in securities for me as I have determined that there is too much risk for me being in US at "investing" in JD, so I am posting some charts and suggestions and thoughts.  First if anyone wants the excel spreadsheet I am using to track hit me up in PM, I will send it to first trusted user.

** Also note while typing this someone did a pretty good job on JD getting 130ish coins out while playing 1% and below, so these stats are prior to that**

The site has been open for 117 days almost 1/3rd of a year

Charts
https://i.imgur.com/SxCbw7d.png - Since JD started
https://i.imgur.com/0nWdHow.png - Total wagered per day using Coindesk daily BPI in USD - closing in on 500 Mil USD
https://i.imgur.com/wEllYbI.png - Increase in site "invested" since 10/4/13
https://i.imgur.com/ZnJWNxG.png - Daily House % (basis of 1%) versus actually Daily Profit %
https://i.imgur.com/xnhazK8.png - USD Profit for site

Legality
First off its my belief that JD needs to become registered as a legal casino somewhere, Ultraplay.co http://ultraplay.co/costarica.html has locations and information in this regard that should be reviewed, including one in Canada http://ultraplay.co/kahwanake.html at an Indian reservation.  Now this does cost money ~$25,000 and I feel this should be paid for by site in a manner of ways.

1. Raising commission - even if temporarily above 10% to 20% to allow the extra 10% to cover legal fees.
2. Having the site take the next +200 coin profit day to pay for this initially
3. Having the 10 -20 largest "investors" lend the site the money at 5-10% interest to cover legal expenses.

Other sites have started registering this Bit777, Casinobitco.in and even Dragons Lair, and knowing those guys I think they would be willing to make suggestions on next step.  

Issues of not being Legal
Both Canada Government and US government will start looking into bitcoin gambling since Securities are already being pressured, and if you are going to start with a site JD is the one to hit, right now biggest and known with people winning and lossing close to a million USD.  I feel both Canada and US governments could seize JD bankroll with laws, for operating without license and within US and POSSIBLY with investment feature.  Even with Doog's emergency release the question is would it be able to be in time prior to a seizure.  With a legal license this issue greatly diminishes.


Safety of Cold Wallet


Assuming legal issues are handled, there is always the chance of thief (NOT ON DOOG but others),  Right now the site has almost $8.4 million dollars invested not including what is just in Balances either being gambled or used as a mobile wallet (something I have done in the past).  Doog and Deb while remaining private do somewhat lead very open lives, and Doog is the kind of person that if something was being done I dont think he could resist the thought of giving away wallet for life (I know worst case but people have done far more for far less).  The cold wallet needs to have 80-90% of it printed on paper wallet and be stored in bank vault safety security box, with a note on site saying 24-48 hours is needed for withdrawls.


Doog has 2 options right now imo


1.  GO BIG, Get legal casino license, raise commission hire programmers to help with interface and design, offer rewards jackpots/affliates, become the biggest bitcoin gambling site ever
2.  Keep it low key and try to let it run itself, dont do anything to site, raise commission to try to lower "Invested", try to get it about 1/3rd of the size it is - limit investments, lower max profit - whatever it is to contract the beast that is JD

** I think if he needs to make a choice and roll with it either way**

Things that are great about JD
1.  Its liquid so that you are not caught holding the bag on shares when they are dumped
2.  Its built itself an entire community

Things that are quick fixes
1.  Stop calling it investors - you are not investors you do not own the company you are bankrollers "lending" money (to gamble at +ev) to gain money
2.  Immediately change site from .com

Things to thing about for Doog
So far Doog's commission I believe has crossed 800 BTC, this is to cover costs, and really to pay him for site design and time to operate, he included you into his baby consider him to be an exception to the rule here, he has given up much more financial gains in BTC than you release to include others.

Honestly another competitor has taken Doog's idea and capitialized on it with Jackpots, Referrals, lower Max profit and most importantly true investors who have stock options, they reap much more rewards than Doog for a lot less hassle, imo.  Its still not to late for him to take this stance and reap the rewards.

"Investors" - Bankrollers
http://just-dice.blogspot.ca/2013/10/investment-amounts.html

The top 10-20 guys have the most to gain/lose right now, not just supporting the bankroll but the issues of not being in compliance.  The last 2 weeks average coins per day gained is +530.  These include 2 meltdowns in Mechs and in Kills.  And even taking them out the site right now is gaining +188 coins on average per day.

Looking at the top investor sitting at over 12.3k coins, its gaining him an incredible amount right now, on roughly double or triple the play the site was getting in mid to Late August.  As the price of BTC seems to be soaring the wagered in BTC will drop without increased marketing and gaining of players, since existing players will limit play.  

As an " investor" I would question remaining in at the levels you are currently in if the site does not head to GO BIG and makes ways to futher protect your coinage from not just gambling and future btc prices causing less play, but GOVERNMENT intervention.

[jgarzik]

Hopefully the cold storage is protected by multisig, so that dooglus alone cannot unlock it.

[maqifrnswa]

[snip]

Doog has 2 options right now imo


1.  GO BIG, Get legal casino license, raise commission hire programmers to help with interface and design, offer rewards jackpots/affliates, become the biggest bitcoin gambling site ever
2.  Keep it low key and try to let it run itself, dont do anything to site, raise commission to try to lower "Invested", try to get it about 1/3rd of the size it is - limit investments, lower max profit - whatever it is to contract the beast that is JD

** I think if he needs to make a choice and roll with it either way**
[snip]

option 3: sell the site to someone that wants to do option 1. Simple pricing model places the site at ~BTC15k.

[yakuza699]

i just feel a little bit sorry for people still invested on the site.....

oh well guess he doesn't need other people invested now

Now it is time to invest in other casinos.

[romerun]

Option 4 unlock nak, let him be himself, once we are down 5000 again no one would care of legal issue.