[ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread

[iCEBREAKER]

It's a FUD campaign with a short term impact. Buying more shares now before everyone sees through this BS and buys back.

Have fun grabbing that falling knife, and enjoy the complimentary blowtorching as we plummet towards IPO price.

I wish AMC all the luck in the world, because they're going to need it.  It took us months to raise $1 million.  Whales like Lewis piss that kind of cash.  Even $200 million is just fun money, good for throwing at crazy ideas like Bitcoin, to them.

We need to be realistic, stop the rah-rah-rah cheerleading, then evaluate how to keep Avalon-on-Steroids and Cointerra from bulldozing us like a Palestinian refugee camp.

(Just added 'Cointerra' to my auto-correct dictionary.  Because it's not going away, no matter how hard we close our eyes and wish.)

[S M I L Y]

Avalon 20nm is total BS.   Intel, the MASTERS at wafer fab are only shipping processors at 22nm!!!!   20nm for an amateur like Avalon is at least 2 year away... and even that is optimistic!

Even if they could get a fab that can do 20nm, laying out a chip that runs at 20nm is far beyond Avalon.  

[Panterino]

It's a FUD campaign with a short term impact. Buying more shares now before everyone sees through this BS and buys back.

Have fun grabbing that falling knife, and enjoy the complimentary blowtorching as we plummet towards IPO price.

I wish AMC all the luck in the world, because they're going to need it.  It took us months to raise $1 million.  Whales like Lewis piss that kind of cash.  Even $200 million is just fun money, good for throwing at crazy ideas like Bitcoin, to them.

We need to be realistic, stop the rah-rah-rah cheerleading, then evaluate how to keep Avalon-on-Steroids and Cointerra from bulldozing us like a Palestinian refugee camp.

(Just added 'Cointerra' to my auto-correct dictionary.  Because it's not going away, no matter how hard we close our eyes and wish.)

If they had anything, they'd be hashing right now. Since they aren't, it shows it's going to be a while until anyone turns the corner. Personally, I'm betting on eAsic.

[djbooth007]

If the Avalon deal is real, it's a huge vote of confidence for the bitcoin ecosystem as a whole.
As for AMC shares, sell sell sell, so that i can buy buy buy

[TheSwede75]

I have to 100% agree with the people being really sceptic of the Avalon $200 mil investment effecting short/medium term ASIC. 20 nm is FAR away to be produced in anything even close to volume. Sure, it will be an impressive next-gen tech, bit it will be late 2014 before anyone sees it in action. Plenary of time for the rest of the Eco system to be very profitable for a long time.

Basically the $200 million investment is GREAT for Bitcoin legitimacy etc. but n
Has no short/medium term effect on any of the current projects.

[kingcrimson]

It's a FUD campaign with a short term impact. Buying more shares now before everyone sees through this BS and buys back.

Have fun grabbing that falling knife, and enjoy the complimentary blowtorching as we plummet towards IPO price.

I wish AMC all the luck in the world, because they're going to need it.  It took us months to raise $1 million.  Whales like Lewis piss that kind of cash.  Even $200 million is just fun money, good for throwing at crazy ideas like Bitcoin, to them.

We need to be realistic, stop the rah-rah-rah cheerleading, then evaluate how to keep Avalon-on-Steroids and Cointerra from bulldozing us like a Palestinian refugee camp.

(Just added 'Cointerra' to my auto-correct dictionary.  Because it's not going away, no matter how hard we close our eyes and wish.)

Billionaires will bitch you out for leaving the light bulb on for 5 minutes too long. They are cheap. They do not piss away $200 mill unless it is an absolute guarantee... now if this news were true in any way, for this guy to think investing 200 mill into a billion market cap is a good idea, he has to have some knowledge that bitcoin is going to launch into the stratosphere.

[yuansuyi]

From the guy that runs bitgarden

Hello everyone...er... Hello every shareholder,

1  About that "big news" regards to Avalon:  

        1  From a thread at btcman.com that was posted by a ID called "gridchip" last month, we (incl. all btcman`s members) can sure that Avalon team do have a big discord inside. It was written in chinese and need to register&login to read ,so I d prefer not giving the link here (all chinese shareholders can find it at "比特币挖矿区" board) However, I hardly believe the rest of this news is real.

        2  We have created a Mathematical Model for our future strategy , which shows that we can easily make money with our 1st gen chips before the whole network reach to 4000TH, in addition,both cost saving and rate-raising could make this Number even higher and therefore prolong the duration of service life of our 130nm chips, furthermore, we will be seeing our 40nm at the end of 2013.The MM is still being adjusted, here s a screenshot of it:





2  I ll upload the photos of PCB & the "big review meeting" in Saturday , while all members of our team will be in Beijing.


****

I dont understand what he means maybe his translator didn't translate some words right.

gridchip's thread is here: http://bbs.btcman.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=4621&extra=page%3D2&_dsign=2de4381b

[redbeans2012]

From the guy that runs bitgarden

Hello everyone...er... Hello every shareholder,

1  About that "big news" regards to Avalon:  

        1  From a thread at btcman.com that was posted by a ID called "gridchip" last month, we (incl. all btcman`s members) can sure that Avalon team do have a big discord inside. It was written in chinese and need to register&login to read ,so I d prefer not giving the link here (all chinese shareholders can find it at "比特币挖矿区" board) However, I hardly believe the rest of this news is real.

        2  We have created a Mathematical Model for our future strategy , which shows that we can easily make money with our 1st gen chips before the whole network reach to 4000TH, in addition,both cost saving and rate-raising could make this Number even higher and therefore prolong the duration of service life of our 130nm chips, furthermore, we will be seeing our 40nm at the end of 2013.The MM is still being adjusted, here s a screenshot of it:





2  I ll upload the photos of PCB & the "big review meeting" in Saturday , while all members of our team will be in Beijing.


****

I dont understand what he means maybe his translator didn't translate some words right.

gridchip's thread is here: http://bbs.btcman.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=4621&extra=page%3D2&_dsign=2de4381b

Hm doesn't load for me, do you read chinese? can you give a better translation of what he was trying to say?

[dexX7]

gridchip's thread is here: http://bbs.btcman.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=4621&extra=page%3D2&_dsign=2de4381b

Does it contain the same information as this Gridchip thread here?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=252233.0;all

[yuansuyi]

gridchip's thread is here: http://bbs.btcman.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=4621&extra=page%3D2&_dsign=2de4381b

Does it contain the same information as this Gridchip thread here?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=252233.0;all

Yes.

[ArcticWolf]

Hey guys, next time you all freak out at some news and all panic sell, can you do it at a time when I have a little liquidity? I havent managed to buy a single share the last two times. Much appreciated   

[Exocyst]

Hey guys, next time you all freak out at some news and all panic sell, can you do it at a time when I have a little liquidity? I havent managed to buy a single share the last two times. Much appreciated   

Sometimes you got to join the fall to make the climb. Risky though... Cheers to liquidity (if you got it). It looked like any other night till everybody simultaneously cr*pped their pants over news that couldn't possibly affect outlook for at least 12 months. Anyways, held some, sold some, and bought more (what a ride).

[iCEBREAKER]

I have to 100% agree with the people being really sceptic of the Avalon $200 mil investment effecting short/medium term ASIC. 20 nm is FAR away to be produced in anything even close to volume. Sure, it will be an impressive next-gen tech, bit it will be late 2014 before anyone sees it in action. Plenary of time for the rest of the Eco system to be very profitable for a long time.

Basically the $200 million investment is GREAT for Bitcoin legitimacy etc. but n
Has no short/medium term effect on any of the current projects.

Lots of derisive, dismissive discussion about Lewis' disruptive $200 million Avalon investment ^here^ and in other posts.

It sure is easy to pat ourselves on the back and scoff at their ambitious, bleeding-edge 20nm roadmap.

Much less mentioned among the JV cheerleader crew is Cointerra's impending angel-funded full-custom 28nm chip.

Do you hear that creaking noise?  That's the sound of our popsicle stand's plastic and particle board supports being crushed by Cointerra's tank treads.

Whistling past the graveyard isn't going to help us avoid being obsolete before Christmas.

I predict a wave of bankruptcies, consolidation/aquisitions, and mergers in the ASIC space as human/financial capital requirements to stay competitive begin overwhelming the garage inventor outfits.

[ArcticWolf]

I have to 100% agree with the people being really sceptic of the Avalon $200 mil investment effecting short/medium term ASIC. 20 nm is FAR away to be produced in anything even close to volume. Sure, it will be an impressive next-gen tech, bit it will be late 2014 before anyone sees it in action. Plenary of time for the rest of the Eco system to be very profitable for a long time.

Basically the $200 million investment is GREAT for Bitcoin legitimacy etc. but n
Has no short/medium term effect on any of the current projects.

Lots of derisive, dismissive discussion about Lewis' disruptive $200 million Avalon investment ^here^ and in other posts.

It sure is easy to pat ourselves on the back and scoff at their ambitious, bleeding-edge 20nm roadmap.

Much less mentioned among the JV cheerleader crew is Cointerra's impending angel-funded full-custom 28nm chip.

Do you hear that creaking noise?  That's the sound of our popsicle stand's plastic and particle board supports being crushed by Cointerra's tank treads.

Whistling past the graveyard isn't going to help us avoid being obsolete before Christmas.

I predict a wave of bankruptcies, consolidation/aquisitions, and mergers in the ASIC space as human/financial capital requirements to stay competitive begin overwhelming the garage inventor outfits.

There is plenty of room in the market for more than one company selling 28nm asics, and on top of that ActiveMining have their own mining infrastructure that they can add to AT COST. I feel that ActiveMining is in a very good position to make a decent profit.
Im not going to freak out and sell my shares just because there is another company in the mix that has shown nothing other than a few PHD's, and certainly not at the say-so of a FUDster such as yourself.

[redbeans2012]

I have to 100% agree with the people being really sceptic of the Avalon $200 mil investment effecting short/medium term ASIC. 20 nm is FAR away to be produced in anything even close to volume. Sure, it will be an impressive next-gen tech, bit it will be late 2014 before anyone sees it in action. Plenary of time for the rest of the Eco system to be very profitable for a long time.

Basically the $200 million investment is GREAT for Bitcoin legitimacy etc. but n
Has no short/medium term effect on any of the current projects.

Lots of derisive, dismissive discussion about Lewis' disruptive $200 million Avalon investment ^here^ and in other posts.

It sure is easy to pat ourselves on the back and scoff at their ambitious, bleeding-edge 20nm roadmap.

Much less mentioned among the JV cheerleader crew is Cointerra's impending angel-funded full-custom 28nm chip.

Do you hear that creaking noise?  That's the sound of our popsicle stand's plastic and particle board supports being crushed by Cointerra's tank treads.

Whistling past the graveyard isn't going to help us avoid being obsolete before Christmas.

I predict a wave of bankruptcies, consolidation/aquisitions, and mergers in the ASIC space as human/financial capital requirements to stay competitive begin overwhelming the garage inventor outfits.

Who's to say any of these other companies wont get money thrown their way sometime in the future?  Avalon is special?

[somestranger]

I have to 100% agree with the people being really sceptic of the Avalon $200 mil investment effecting short/medium term ASIC. 20 nm is FAR away to be produced in anything even close to volume. Sure, it will be an impressive next-gen tech, bit it will be late 2014 before anyone sees it in action. Plenary of time for the rest of the Eco system to be very profitable for a long time.

Basically the $200 million investment is GREAT for Bitcoin legitimacy etc. but n
Has no short/medium term effect on any of the current projects.

Lots of derisive, dismissive discussion about Lewis' disruptive $200 million Avalon investment ^here^ and in other posts.

It sure is easy to pat ourselves on the back and scoff at their ambitious, bleeding-edge 20nm roadmap.

Much less mentioned among the JV cheerleader crew is Cointerra's impending angel-funded full-custom 28nm chip.

Do you hear that creaking noise?  That's the sound of our popsicle stand's plastic and particle board supports being crushed by Cointerra's tank treads.

Whistling past the graveyard isn't going to help us avoid being obsolete before Christmas.

I predict a wave of bankruptcies, consolidation/aquisitions, and mergers in the ASIC space as human/financial capital requirements to stay competitive begin overwhelming the garage inventor outfits.

That's right... keep spreading FUD so you can buy more cheap shares to flip once the price recovers. Even AMD and NVIDIA are not producing 20nm chips yet and they are huge semiconductor companies with billions of dollars that usually keep TSMC and other companies busy.

NVIDIA gave a presentation in late 2011 explaining the problems of moving to 20nm including high costs for little performance gain. http://www.extremetech.com/computing/123529-nvidia-deeply-unhappy-with-tsmc-claims-22nm-essentially-worthless


20nm is going to cost significantly more than 28nm for at least a couple years based on NVIDIA's projections here, and the production lines will be busy fulfilling orders for these semiconductor giants, not a tiny company like Avalon regardless of whether or not they receive this alleged $200 M investment. Avalon's 20nm chips would be at least one year away if not more; they would be absurdly expensive and they would not be able to compete on price with the 3 contenders for the 28nm market who will have much lower NRE and R&D costs as well as getting to market faster.


From the article: "What this slide states — we can’t even call it a suggestion — is that smaller processes no longer improve yields by leading to a greater number of chips per wafer. Instead, the complexities and difficulties of manufacturing at the new process create a cost structure that provides precious little incentive to manufacture at the new process. "

[Exocyst]

I have to 100% agree with the people being really sceptic of the Avalon $200 mil investment effecting short/medium term ASIC. 20 nm is FAR away to be produced in anything even close to volume. Sure, it will be an impressive next-gen tech, bit it will be late 2014 before anyone sees it in action. Plenary of time for the rest of the Eco system to be very profitable for a long time.

Basically the $200 million investment is GREAT for Bitcoin legitimacy etc. but n
Has no short/medium term effect on any of the current projects.

Lots of derisive, dismissive discussion about Lewis' disruptive $200 million Avalon investment ^here^ and in other posts.

It sure is easy to pat ourselves on the back and scoff at their ambitious, bleeding-edge 20nm roadmap.

Much less mentioned among the JV cheerleader crew is Cointerra's impending angel-funded full-custom 28nm chip.

Do you hear that creaking noise?  That's the sound of our popsicle stand's plastic and particle board supports being crushed by Cointerra's tank treads.

Whistling past the graveyard isn't going to help us avoid being obsolete before Christmas.

I predict a wave of bankruptcies, consolidation/aquisitions, and mergers in the ASIC space as human/financial capital requirements to stay competitive begin overwhelming the garage inventor outfits.

The fact is, the tanks aren't arriving in 2014. Your doom & gloom scenario has a lot of time to develop. So pull up your rock, and climb back into that hole your living in.

[Vycid]

20nm is going to cost significantly more than 28nm for at least a couple years based on NVIDIA's projections here, and the production lines will be busy fulfilling orders for these semiconductor giants, not a tiny company like Avalon regardless of whether or not they receive this alleged $200 M investment. Avalon's 20nm chips would be at least one year away if not more; they would be absurdly expensive and they would not be able to compete on price with the 3 contenders for the 28nm market who will have much lower NRE and R&D costs as well as getting to market faster.

First - that article was published in the Monday edition of the WSJ. It could be wrong, but boy, somebody is getting fired.

If you look at the first graph you linked, 20nm will reach price breakeven with 28nm on a per-transistor basis by 2014 Q3. It might be a strategic move - pay a premium right now for enough hardware to be competitive and get your design issues sorted out (while still being way cheaper than the other guys' gen 1 chips, ASICMiner in particular) - and then once 20nm is really cost-competitive, you can flatten the other guys completely by ramping up production.

That way you won't have to pay the NRE for 20nm later on.

[iCEBREAKER]

Arcticwolf, Cointerra's founder is also the founder of Open-Silicon.  Maybe you should look that up before calling them 'just some PHDs with nothing to show.'  

Somestranger, you managed to miss my point about 28nm competition entirely while droning on with yet another repost of nvidia's 20nm PowerPoint slides.  Way to fail there buddy.  

Exocyst, you don't know Cointerra's specs or schedule so stop assuming facts not in evidence.

I suggest Ken grab some patents and otherwise prepare for worst case scenarios.

Otherwise it's going to be Rachel Corrie vs a 65-tonne Merkava all over again.

Self-righteousness won't do jack squat against superior hardware.

[somestranger]

Somestranger, you managed to miss my point about 28nm competition entirely while droning on with yet another repost of nvidia's 20nm PowerPoint slides.  Way to fail there buddy.   

There is plenty of room in the market for multiple 28nm companies. One will probably end up with an edge over the others, but that does not mean the others will suddenly go bankrupt. ActiveMining is also going to be mining with its hardware at cost. I "droned on" about 20nm because you are claiming that this Avalon deal will be the death of every other mining company when it very unlikely and over a year away.