CoinTerra announces its first ASIC - Hash-Rate greater than 500 GH/s

[kaerf]

Note that manufacturers likely have to book a certain amount of chips (I heard sets of 25 wafers) at the factory. So the number of chips actually hashing in the future might be larger than the number of orders that the manufacturer actually manages to land.  (Also, no KNC??)

Difficulty will overshoot by a lot into deeply unprofitable territory before the flow of chips reduces.

Right. Don't forget the private miners: ASICMINER, bitfury (http://ghash.io already at 80+TH/s right now) and undisclosed private ASICs.

Costs for private mining could be well under $1/GH.

[Syke]

At $8 per GH that would be $216,000,000 in hardware. (Monarch & Cointerra)
At $15 per GH that would be $405,000,000 in hardware.  (Hashfast)
At $20 per GH that would be $540,000,000 in hardware.  (Bitfury October)
At $50 per GH that would be $1,350,000,000 in hardware (BFL, AsicMiner, Avalon, Bitfury August).

Possible but unlikely.

That does seem high. How do you get those numbers?

[KS]

(...)
Not sure what numbers were used for the 2.6 billion
(...)

Simple conversion from a previous poster's formula: 1 trillion diff @ 42K USD/BTC -> x diff @ 110 USD/BTC

x diff = 1 trillion diff * 110 / 42000 ≃ 2.6 Billion diff.

Factoring in the miner's price is a bit tricky as you don't know when it was bought, how much electricity it consumed over time, what the sale price was (+ other associated costs) so it's more like an upper limit that probably won't be reached (never say never though...), unless you disregard the payback time (and then we're back to uselessness).

[gkm22d]

At $8 per GH that would be $216,000,000 in hardware. (Monarch & Cointerra)
At $15 per GH that would be $405,000,000 in hardware.  (Hashfast)
At $20 per GH that would be $540,000,000 in hardware.  (Bitfury October)
At $50 per GH that would be $1,350,000,000 in hardware (BFL, AsicMiner, Avalon, Bitfury August).

Possible but unlikely.

And with a single post you have me turned 180 degrees on the profitability of mining. It kind of puts everything in perspective, doesn't it?

[DeathAndTaxes]

That does seem high. How do you get those numbers?

Simple multiplication.  It is what 27 PH/s would cost at the various price points offered by various vendors. (i.e assumming they could deliver today buying 27 PH/s from BFL would cost you ~$1.35 billion).  In order for the hashrate to rise to 27 PH/s that means someone had to buy 27 PH/s of gear.  At the current hardware prices and exchange rates I don't think that is likely.

I guess another way to look at it is how much hashing power (in USD) do you think has been bought.  My guess (SWAG) is that it isn't enough to push us to 27 PH/s as fast as you think. Note this doens't mean buying more hardware is a good idea certainly not at current prices but I think the law of large numbers is going to slow the rate of hashing power growth.

[crumbs]

That does seem high. How do you get those numbers?

Simple multiplication.  It is what 27 PH/s would cost at the various price points offered by various vendors. (i.e assumming they could deliver today buying 27 PH/s from BFL would cost you ~$1.35 billion).  In order for the hashrate to rise to 27 PH/s that means someone had to buy 27 PH/s of gear.  At the current hardware prices and exchange rates I don't think that is likely.

I guess another way to look at it is how much hashing power (in USD) do you think has been bought.  My guess (SWAG) is that it isn't enough to push us to 27 PH/s as fast as you think. Note this doens't mean buying more hardware is a good idea certainly not at current prices but I think the law of large numbers is going to slow the rate of hashing power growth.

The funny bit is *no one has to buy the hardware for that hardware to mine*.  Self-mining is already alive and well, and mining gear will not collect dust in warehouses while manufacturers see profitability windows closing.  Self-mining will remain profitable to ASIC manufacturers long after it bankrupts their retail customers.  Common sense.
As far as "protecting the bitcoin ecosystem" in a bout of enlightened self-interest?
We'll watch prisoner's dilemma played out with with consumers as free cannon fodder

[Anenome5]

(...)
If 1 trillion diff corresponds to $42k price for BTC, what BTC price of $110 corresponds to which diff?

That should give us the end-point of difficulty leveling off and should also tell us roughly when to expect that to finish levelling.

≃2.6 billion diff = ways to go.

That'll take about 14 difficulty adjustments at 30% each. I think we'll reach that by end of this year.

Not a chance.

[Ytterbium]

At $8 per GH that would be $216,000,000 in hardware. (Monarch & Cointerra)
At $15 per GH that would be $405,000,000 in hardware.  (Hashfast)
At $20 per GH that would be $540,000,000 in hardware.  (Bitfury October)
At $50 per GH that would be $1,350,000,000 in hardware (BFL, AsicMiner, Avalon, Bitfury August).

Possible but unlikely.

That does seem high. How do you get those numbers?

Yeah, but you have to consider the marginal cost for people who already have chips. Labcoin estimates it'll cost them about $2/Gh/s to add capacity. Once the masksets are done for the 28nm chips they'll likely be able to add capacity for far less.  Maybe even 50 cents per GH. 

With HashFast's 4x miner protection plan, they expect they'll be able to make a profit for $15/5 = $3/Gh (since they'll have to send 4x chips for every one chip they sell)

So that's just $81m at HashFast's "Miner Protection Plan" cost.
Or $51m at Labcoin's claimed 130nm chip cost.

Total amount of bitcoins mined a year is worth about $130m I think. So it could potentially be profitable to create that many chips.  Plus companies don't know about eachother's plans.

[Syke]

Simple multiplication.  It is what 27 PH/s would cost at the various price points offered by various vendors.

Why 27 PH/s? Isn't that in the neighborhood of 4B difficulty?

[BigLad]

Price drop to $13999, still not profitable with a Dec delivery

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/5fe987161b

http://www.coindesk.com/cointerra-cuts-price-of-terraminer-iv-bitcoin-mining-rig/

[PuertoLibre]

Price drop to $13999, still not profitable with a Dec delivery

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/5fe987161b

http://www.coindesk.com/cointerra-cuts-price-of-terraminer-iv-bitcoin-mining-rig/

It sounds like they are finally coming around to reality. While the drop is still not bringing the miner into a truly profitable "buy" scenario, let alone to actually mine with, it is a first step in the right direction.

They also seem to (I assume) be listening to advice that they need to 'pave a path' for their future products beyond the immediate December delivery window. It sounds to me like they might be starting designs on scaling their chips.

Either way, if they continue to listen and adapt to reality, they are so far among the best poised due to prudence. Lets hope.

[eve]

Price drop to $13999, still not profitable with a Dec delivery

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/5fe987161b

http://www.coindesk.com/cointerra-cuts-price-of-terraminer-iv-bitcoin-mining-rig/

Need to be lower than 4 gh/s to be reasonable.

[Pinwheel]

Price drop to $13999, still not profitable with a Dec delivery

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/5fe987161b

http://www.coindesk.com/cointerra-cuts-price-of-terraminer-iv-bitcoin-mining-rig/

It sounds like they are finally coming around to reality. While the drop is still not bringing the miner into a truly profitable "buy" scenario, let alone to actually mine with, it is a first step in the right direction.

They also seem to (I assume) be listening to advice that they need to 'pave a path' for their future products beyond the immediate December delivery window. It sounds to me like they might be starting designs on scaling their chips.

Either way, if they continue to listen and adapt to reality, they are so far among the best poised due to prudence. Lets hope.

Bitfury "ship next week" 400ghs miner resales for usd 4000

usd 4000 x 5 = usd 20000 is the price for 2trh now, for 55nm devices.

with difficulty projected to be 5 time up in January, dividing 20000/5 = usd 4000 for 2trh.

Most miners investing mined coins into new equipment. By December people may not have money to pay even 4000. Because, it is possible that 28nm devices will be available as ship now from Avalon and ASICMINER by November, BFL too ... hell yeah, and all money will goes there.

Cointerra have to be real much more aggressive, if they want to grab some attention.

[geofflosophy]

Price drop to $13999, still not profitable with a Dec delivery

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/5fe987161b

http://www.coindesk.com/cointerra-cuts-price-of-terraminer-iv-bitcoin-mining-rig/

It sounds like they are finally coming around to reality. While the drop is still not bringing the miner into a truly profitable "buy" scenario, let alone to actually mine with, it is a first step in the right direction.

They also seem to (I assume) be listening to advice that they need to 'pave a path' for their future products beyond the immediate December delivery window. It sounds to me like they might be starting designs on scaling their chips.

Either way, if they continue to listen and adapt to reality, they are so far among the best poised due to prudence. Lets hope.

These guys are still bugging so hard:
1. Price is still too high for December Delivery
2. Offering cheaper, lower end units fixes nothing. We're not scoffing at the price tag, we're scoffing at the value.
3. Giving a 20% bump in hashing power for a 30 day late delivery calms no one given that the difficulty is growing at a rate of 70+% a month
4. How do you even offer a 20% bump in hashing power when each chip represents 25% of the unit's hashing power?

[DeathAndTaxes]

#4 is interesting.  It would logically seem their only options are hashing power in multiples of 500 GH/s as that is the capability of a single chip. 

I might be interested if there was a contract with a black and white hard deadline date and penalty of 25% extra hashing power per week (exactly 7 days late) up to +100%.

Something like
2.0 TH/s if shipped by 31 DEC JAN 2014 or earlier.
2.5 Th/s if shipped before 7 JAN 2014.
3.0 TH/s if sipped  on 14 JAN 2014.
3.5 TH/s if shipped after 22 JAN 2014.
4.0 TH/s if shipped after 28 JAN 2014.

Note for the reading impaired this is NOT Cointerra's protection plan just IMHO what it will take for such a later offering.


Still it does make you wonder what BFL Monarch buyers are thinking.  Cointerra has at least BFL beat in every possible category even if we assume "this time will be different" for BFL.
                           

BFL Monarch is higher cost per GH ($8 per GH vs $6.95 per GH)
BFL is lower efficiency (when you consider entire system "at the wall"  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=281279.msg3008390#msg3008390)
BFL is promising a later delivery (February after the whole rocket run already sold out bait and switch)

This is also assuming BFL will actually delivery on time, on spec so it could be considered a best case scenario for BFL.    Why anyone bought a Monarch I have no idea.

[qwertyqwerty]

http://www.coindesk.com/cointerra-cuts-price-of-terraminer-iv-bitcoin-mining-rig/

chip photo is ivy bridge with cointerra logo shopped in, video is nice though
http://vimeo.com/73209233

[2112]

video is nice though

but nearly completely content-free.

All the math in the opening sequence has nothing to do with Bitcoin, its some partial differential equations like used in financial derivatives. At one point there is a close-up of cubicle with wall calendar open on August 2013 and close up of a desktop screen with some Verilog code and some digital simulator. If they are still working at the Verilog level this month then they are either very early in the design or going to completely offload the design to Open Silicon.

Also hiring a cryptographer is completely technically pointless for miner. They should be working on the analog/thermal/physical design phases to deliver anything meaningfull for long-term Bitcoin mining.

[worldinacoin]

Please, no more pre-announcements, we want to see the production working model ready to be purchased and ship out.

[CoinHoarder]

I'm glad they have taken my advice & advice from the community on lowering prices.

However, it's still not a good investment. It seems they're trying to find the highest price that the market will bear. I don't think they're there yet, but certainly some people that don't understand the economics of Bitcoin mining will still order from them.

Even if delivered on time you're likely to lose $1,200... not exactly my idea of a good investment. http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/85e10d5a76

They don't seem to understand the risk/reward ratio needs to be just right for people to risk this much money on pre-orders. If there is no possible reward even if they deliver on time, I don't know how they expect to sell their products (unless they are just planning on mining with the equipment themselves at cost).

[CYPER]

Even if delivered on time you're likely to lose $1,200... not exactly my idea of a good investment. http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/85e10d5a76

To lose $1200 difficulty must be over 33 billion, which equals 236PH/s network speed.
That speed equals 472000 (472 thousands) 500GH/s miners or 118000 (118 thousands) 2TH/s miners.
Does this sound realistic to you?