2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave)

[JayJuanGee]

https://cryptoslate.com/crypto-community-reacts-to-vays-shorting-bitcoin-at-yearly-low/

It looks more solid traders join the opinion BTC will drop to low 5000 area soon. The community negative reaction to this, is just the indication of mass sentiment, and as mass sentiment is usually wrong, it just means the probability of the drop is very high. Well, whether we want it or not, the bear market is not over, as we all already know...

I believe now with BAKKT 12th December, there will be a lot of bull run predictions.  I personally have no idea. My call for September bottom failed miserably. Bottom can happen up to mid next year. Latter then that I believe   are as tiny chance as to win a lottery.

Never as now the market is really uncertain and everyone has his own theory; many declare that there will be a new bottom in the $ 4,000 area while many others have become rally for this BAKKT announcement towards the end of the year.

Personally I expect a clear and strong direction of Bitcoin within 2 weeks maximum; there is too much stasis and stillness ... it seems that moment before the storm.
I am not unbalanced in saying which direction it will move, but I believe that any movement occurring soon will be a trap, to which a decisive change will follow shortly thereafter.

You are familiar with the saying that "the market can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent", right?

Even though the BTC price has been stuck in a long ass band (consolidation), there is NO "need" for it to have to move within 2 weeks, even if there continues to be a large number of institutional investors buying BTC behind the scenes.  You also understand that sometimes very bullish news is spun in the opposite direction in order for BIG money to continue to trick peeps out of their coins.

I am NOT disagreeing with your overall thesis that in the longer term there are really decently strong odds that BTC prices are going to have to go UP.. but I am far from relying on any kind of rationality, whether talking about technical analysis or merely questions about why all the buy pressures and happenings are NOT causing the BTC price to go up.

In other words, HODL your bitcoin, buy BTC on dips and if anyone is panic selling their BTC, let it be someone else...  

Hi JayJuanGee, I know that saying but I expect the market to take a lead within the next 2 weeks because at the beginning of November the descending triangle from February to today closes

Yeah, but so what?  you draw some lines on a chart and the BTC price could go up, down or sideways.  It does not have to go either up or down... there is a third option - sideways.

; then Bitcoin will be called soon to a decision that, imho,

I don't have any problem with what you are saying except when you are saying that bitcoin "has to," and it does not "have to" do anything merely because some lines on a chart (and theory) says that it "has to."

will initially be a trap that will take us for a few months, while in the end we will have the clear direction of the market, perhaps for the whole 2019.



Finally, in the long run, except for unimaginable and unpredictable shocks, Bitcoin will be loooonger than today, so I hold my bitcoins.  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4849889.msg43731865#msg43731865

Of course, I have been buying into bitcoin too (I started buying and accumulating in late 2013, and mostly I have not stopped buying BTC), and I believe that bitcoin has really great odds for ongoing upwards price movements, especially long term... .but long term ongoing upwards price pressures does not mean that it "has to" do anything short term, besides going up, down or sideways, which covers all the possible directions.

[DeathAngel]

I believe now with BAKKT 12th December, there will be a lot of bull run predictions.  I personally have no idea. My call for September bottom failed miserably. Bottom can happen up to mid next year. Latter then that I believe   are as tiny chance as to win a lottery.

Or we could have already seen the bottom. It’s very possible, high 5k’s / low 6k’s have been tested many times now & support is very strong at those levels.

If we start to rise a little as New Year closes in then we’ve already seen the bottom of this cycle imo.

[Febo]

I believe now with BAKKT 12th December, there will be a lot of bull run predictions.  I personally have no idea. My call for September bottom failed miserably. Bottom can happen up to mid next year. Latter then that I believe   are as tiny chance as to win a lottery.

Or we could have already seen the bottom. It’s very possible, high 5k’s / low 6k’s have been tested many times now & support is very strong at those levels.

If we start to rise a little as New Year closes in then we’ve already seen the bottom of this cycle imo.

This prediction here is on track with the January growth start. https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/9rw8ic/2013_vs_2017_comparison/

[KrishaBitcoin]

Why are you here spreading FUD? I don't get people like you. Go away.

No need to be carried away as we are in the speculation topic in which everyone are entitled to their opinion specially that this bearish market is still in effect but actually no one can really predict the future of Bitcoin as the price keeps on fluctuating.

[kronos123]

https://cryptoslate.com/crypto-community-reacts-to-vays-shorting-bitcoin-at-yearly-low/

It looks more solid traders join the opinion BTC will drop to low 5000 area soon. The community negative reaction to this, is just the indication of mass sentiment, and as mass sentiment is usually wrong, it just means the probability of the drop is very high. Well, whether we want it or not, the bear market is not over, as we all already know...

I believe now with BAKKT 12th December, there will be a lot of bull run predictions.  I personally have no idea. My call for September bottom failed miserably. Bottom can happen up to mid next year. Latter then that I believe   are as tiny chance as to win a lottery.

Never as now the market is really uncertain and everyone has his own theory; many declare that there will be a new bottom in the $ 4,000 area while many others have become rally for this BAKKT announcement towards the end of the year.

Personally I expect a clear and strong direction of Bitcoin within 2 weeks maximum; there is too much stasis and stillness ... it seems that moment before the storm.
I am not unbalanced in saying which direction it will move, but I believe that any movement occurring soon will be a trap, to which a decisive change will follow shortly thereafter.

You are familiar with the saying that "the market can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent", right?

Even though the BTC price has been stuck in a long ass band (consolidation), there is NO "need" for it to have to move within 2 weeks, even if there continues to be a large number of institutional investors buying BTC behind the scenes.  You also understand that sometimes very bullish news is spun in the opposite direction in order for BIG money to continue to trick peeps out of their coins.

I am NOT disagreeing with your overall thesis that in the longer term there are really decently strong odds that BTC prices are going to have to go UP.. but I am far from relying on any kind of rationality, whether talking about technical analysis or merely questions about why all the buy pressures and happenings are NOT causing the BTC price to go up.

In other words, HODL your bitcoin, buy BTC on dips and if anyone is panic selling their BTC, let it be someone else...  

Hi JayJuanGee, I know that saying but I expect the market to take a lead within the next 2 weeks because at the beginning of November the descending triangle from February to today closes

Yeah, but so what?  you draw some lines on a chart and the BTC price could go up, down or sideways.  It does not have to go either up or down... there is a third option - sideways.

; then Bitcoin will be called soon to a decision that, imho,

I don't have any problem with what you are saying except when you are saying that bitcoin "has to," and it does not "have to" do anything merely because some lines on a chart (and theory) says that it "has to."

will initially be a trap that will take us for a few months, while in the end we will have the clear direction of the market, perhaps for the whole 2019.



Finally, in the long run, except for unimaginable and unpredictable shocks, Bitcoin will be loooonger than today, so I hold my bitcoins.  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4849889.msg43731865#msg43731865

Of course, I have been buying into bitcoin too (I started buying and accumulating in late 2013, and mostly I have not stopped buying BTC), and I believe that bitcoin has really great odds for ongoing upwards price movements, especially long term... .but long term ongoing upwards price pressures does not mean that it "has to" do anything short term, besides going up, down or sideways, which covers all the possible directions.

Written words often lose their true meaning that one person wants to transmit to another, and other times are meticulously analyzed.
When I said that "bitcoin must" it is obvious that I was referring to the statistics and the historicity of such movements and figures on the charts (in every sphere, stock, commodity, bond, etc.), but it is equally obvious that there is a third choice and / or possibility that it remains lateral for other weeks or even months, but ..... but precisely the statistics and the history of price analysis, of every tradable thing, teaches us that at the end of such a movement, of such a geometric figure , of such a retracement or recovery, etc., there will then be a certain reaction on prices, which is proportionally proportional to the good or the commodity that is being traded (an action will have a different reaction to a bond and compared to a commodity and compared to a cryptocurrency).

Since none of us has the crystal sphere, we can only hypothesize movements and oscillations, short and long term, while being more optimistic towards the long term.
What do you expect for the next 4 weeks and instead for the next 4-5 months, until February-March 2019?

[estenity]

Since none of us has the crystal sphere, we can only hypothesize movements and oscillations, short and long term, while being more optimistic towards the long term.
What do you expect for the next 4 weeks and instead for the next 4-5 months, until February-March 2019?

I expect going out of the BTC present triangle

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Written words often lose their true meaning that one person wants to transmit to another, and other times are meticulously analyzed.

I surely understand that sometimes any of us might write something that we don't really mean or that our words might get misinterpreted or even analyzed in a way that is much deeper than what we had originally intended.

Part of the advantage with engaging in a forum like this is that we can bat around our ideas, and even learn more about our own thoughts and how to express our thoughts in order to attempt to get the effect (or reading) that we want. 

Furthermore, as long as each of us is attempting to be genuine in our presentation (especially when it comes to our more serious proclamations and predictions) then we will likely figure out the extent to which we might need to hone our own thoughts or our way of presenting or thoughts or if we are largely in agreement with our dialogue opponent.

When I said that "bitcoin must" it is obvious that I was referring to the statistics and the historicity of such movements and figures on the charts (in every sphere, stock, commodity, bond, etc.),

I understand that in common parlance people will tend to express ideas (especially about the future) in terms of absolutes when they may consider a matter to be likely or extremely likely, so they don't really mean "must" even though in common parlance people have a tendency to use those kinds  of words.  Sometimes, I will do that myself as a kind of clarity shortcut, even though I don't mean it to be literal.

but it is equally obvious that there is a third choice and / or possibility that it remains lateral for other weeks or even months, but ..... but precisely the statistics and the history of price analysis, of every tradable thing, teaches us that at the end of such a movement, of such a geometric figure , of such a retracement or recovery, etc., there will then be a certain reaction on prices, which is proportionally proportional to the good or the commodity that is being traded (an action will have a different reaction to a bond and compared to a commodity and compared to a cryptocurrency).

Probably, I don't agree with you too much in terms of your own assessment or your reliance on various technical analysis principles, yet even though the possibility of sideways remains implied, it seems to me that the implication that you made in your earlier posts was to mostly give credence to either UP or DOWN - even while there are more variations regarding what can happen, and I think that I do sometimes get a bit perturbed by technical analysis that seem to give greater odds to a certain outcome than such outcome rightfully deserves - in an attempt to suggest that the future is more clear than it is.  I am not asserting that you intended to do such, but I am suggesting that some of your earlier word choices had left that impression... and in that regard, your word choices caused me to inquire about what you meant exactly.. hence our exchange of ideas here... and nice to meet you.. .       

Since none of us has the crystal sphere, we can only hypothesize movements and oscillations, short and long term, while being more optimistic towards the long term.

Surely, I cannot disagree with this point.

What do you expect for the next 4 weeks and instead for the next 4-5 months, until February-March 2019?

Personally, I try NOT to place too much weight into price predictions in either direction, and my strategy continues to be to accumulate BTC on dips and to sell when the price goes up.  I did most of my BTC accumulation in 2014, so my practice remains a kind of maintenance and continued accumulation that is incremental rather than extreme (since I have largely already accumulated a relatively comfortable BTC stake)   So for me, incrementalism rules the day in my practice, and I assume long term BTC price appreciation with a bit of uncertainty and even emotional detachment from short term BTC price movements. 

The extent to which I attempt to predict short term BTC price movements is mostly one leg at a time, so perhaps now, I am thinking that there are decent chances for up.. .. at least greater than 50%.. but if the price goes down, I already have orders to buy and if the price goes up I already have orders to sell.  Currently, I am selling a bit more than 1% of the value of my holdings for every 10% the BTC price goes up, and I use such generated fiat to buy back, if BTC prices go down.   

I have optimism that is greater than 50% that both in 4 weeks and in 4-5 months, the BTC price will be higher than it is today, but I really feel little to no need to attempt to predict any greater than that.. .but instead hope that the price goes up... and to continue to recognize a lot of great fundamentals in bitcoin that continue to be develop that continue to make bitcoin long term bullish with no other asset class that even seems to be in the ballpark of competing with bitcoin, even though there are likely powerful forces and manipulators out there who would like to keep BTC prices down for as long and as much as they can, and I remain uncertain about how much success they can muster up in keeping BTC prices down or to get BTC prices to go down in the short (1-4 months) or medium term (4-18 months).

[JayJuanGee]

Since none of us has the crystal sphere, we can only hypothesize movements and oscillations, short and long term, while being more optimistic towards the long term.
What do you expect for the next 4 weeks and instead for the next 4-5 months, until February-March 2019?

I expect going out of the BTC present triangle

What does that mean?  Anything?

By the way, I expect the sun to rise tomorrow.   

[kronos123]

[edited out]

Written words often lose their true meaning that one person wants to transmit to another, and other times are meticulously analyzed.

I surely understand that sometimes any of us might write something that we don't really mean or that our words might get misinterpreted or even analyzed in a way that is much deeper than what we had originally intended.

Part of the advantage with engaging in a forum like this is that we can bat around our ideas, and even learn more about our own thoughts and how to express our thoughts in order to attempt to get the effect (or reading) that we want. 

Furthermore, as long as each of us is attempting to be genuine in our presentation (especially when it comes to our more serious proclamations and predictions) then we will likely figure out the extent to which we might need to hone our own thoughts or our way of presenting or thoughts or if we are largely in agreement with our dialogue opponent.

When I said that "bitcoin must" it is obvious that I was referring to the statistics and the historicity of such movements and figures on the charts (in every sphere, stock, commodity, bond, etc.),

I understand that in common parlance people will tend to express ideas (especially about the future) in terms of absolutes when they may consider a matter to be likely or extremely likely, so they don't really mean "must" even though in common parlance people have a tendency to use those kinds  of words.  Sometimes, I will do that myself as a kind of clarity shortcut, even though I don't mean it to be literal.

but it is equally obvious that there is a third choice and / or possibility that it remains lateral for other weeks or even months, but ..... but precisely the statistics and the history of price analysis, of every tradable thing, teaches us that at the end of such a movement, of such a geometric figure , of such a retracement or recovery, etc., there will then be a certain reaction on prices, which is proportionally proportional to the good or the commodity that is being traded (an action will have a different reaction to a bond and compared to a commodity and compared to a cryptocurrency).

Probably, I don't agree with you too much in terms of your own assessment or your reliance on various technical analysis principles, yet even though the possibility of sideways remains implied, it seems to me that the implication that you made in your earlier posts was to mostly give credence to either UP or DOWN - even while there are more variations regarding what can happen, and I think that I do sometimes get a bit perturbed by technical analysis that seem to give greater odds to a certain outcome than such outcome rightfully deserves - in an attempt to suggest that the future is more clear than it is.  I am not asserting that you intended to do such, but I am suggesting that some of your earlier word choices had left that impression... and in that regard, your word choices caused me to inquire about what you meant exactly.. hence our exchange of ideas here... and nice to meet you.. .       

Since none of us has the crystal sphere, we can only hypothesize movements and oscillations, short and long term, while being more optimistic towards the long term.

Surely, I cannot disagree with this point.

What do you expect for the next 4 weeks and instead for the next 4-5 months, until February-March 2019?

Personally, I try NOT to place too much weight into price predictions in either direction, and my strategy continues to be to accumulate BTC on dips and to sell when the price goes up.  I did most of my BTC accumulation in 2014, so my practice remains a kind of maintenance and continued accumulation that is incremental rather than extreme (since I have largely already accumulated a relatively comfortable BTC stake)   So for me, incrementalism rules the day in my practice, and I assume long term BTC price appreciation with a bit of uncertainty and even emotional detachment from short term BTC price movements. 

The extent to which I attempt to predict short term BTC price movements is mostly one leg at a time, so perhaps now, I am thinking that there are decent chances for up.. .. at least greater than 50%.. but if the price goes down, I already have orders to buy and if the price goes up I already have orders to sell.  Currently, I am selling a bit more than 1% of the value of my holdings for every 10% the BTC price goes up, and I use such generated fiat to buy back, if BTC prices go down.   

I have optimism that is greater than 50% that both in 4 weeks and in 4-5 months, the BTC price will be higher than it is today, but I really feel little to no need to attempt to predict any greater than that.. .but instead hope that the price goes up... and to continue to recognize a lot of great fundamentals in bitcoin that continue to be develop that continue to make bitcoin long term bullish with no other asset class that even seems to be in the ballpark of competing with bitcoin, even though there are likely powerful forces and manipulators out there who would like to keep BTC prices down for as long and as much as they can, and I remain uncertain about how much success they can muster up in keeping BTC prices down or to get BTC prices to go down in the short (1-4 months) or medium term (4-18 months).

You're absolutely right and that's why I try to commit myself here in the forum or in other social networks, for my chances and time.
Personally I do not do short trading with Bitcoin or other Coin and Token; it takes too much time, resources and mental strength, that I do not own and I can not venture as if I entered a casino .... I prefer to study other projects calmly and then position myself in the ones I consider best.
Finally I think instead that in the next 4-5 months we will find the Bitcoin lower than today, just for those forces you mentioned, and that I do not think will settle for about $ 6,000 (but of course it's just my opinion and feeling  ).

N.B. by the way .... the sun rises in the East 

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Inflection Point
https://redd.it/9u1y3z


 
The Bitcoin and cryptocurrency bear market of 2018 has reached a point of inflection, where alternative scenarios and projections can now be explored using Elliott Wave theory.

From the 17-DEC-2017 high to the 06-FEB-2018 low, the Bitcoin market endured a 70% price collapse from the all-time high of $19,891 to a low of $6,000 in just 51 days (BITFINEX). In Elliott Wave parlance, this first phase crash is a simple but sharp three wave a-b-c zigzag pattern.

From the 06-FEB-2018 low, the Bitcoin market then wandered sideways for 168 days until 24-JUL-2018, creating a floor of support at $6,000 whilst making successively lower highs. The psychological $6,000 price has been guarded since it marks support of the psychological USD$100 billion Bitcoin marketcap. In Elliott Wave parlance, this second phase of market development is a triangle pattern consisting of five a-b-c-d-e waves. The internal structure of the waves within the triangle are related to each other in terms of length as the following Fibonacci ratios:

    wave-c = wave-a * 0.618
    wave-d = wave-b * 0.786
    wave-e = wave-c * 0.786



The triangle phase of the Bitcoin market completed at the 24-JUL-2018 high. Since then, the third phase of market has been underway with an expectation of creating new lows for 2018 at sub $6,000 prices. Initial approx targets have been projected as follows (BITSTAMP):

    @5920: Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-d low projected from wave-e high.
    @5220: Fibonacci 0.786% of wave-d low projected from wave-e high.  
    @4327: Fibonacci 0.100% of wave-d low projected from wave-e high.
    @4200: Fibonacci 78.6% decline of entire Bitcoin market.

Any of the aforementioned approx price levels based on Fibonacci projections are potential targets of where the 2018 bear market may conclude.

Should price retrace below the Fibonacci 78.6% of the entire Bitcoin market, i.e. below the psychological $4,000 level; it may suggest the bear market extends into 2019 with an expectation of a 90%-95% decline of the entire Bitcoin market to approx $1,000 by 2020. Such a scenario would be consistent with the collapse of other historical asset mania bubble bursts, which typically elapse 2 years on average: thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes

However, the Bitcoin market has reached an inflection point. The third phase of the bear market appears to have stagnated in price and time. Since 09-SEP-2018, price has traded in a narrow 10% range at an average price of $6,400 for almost 60 days thus far. Volatility is now at a 22-month low and technicals such as moving averages are flat-lining across daily timeframes. This behaviour has been quite unexpected. Since completion of the consolidating triangle phase of the market, volume and volatility was expected to breakout. Speculators and traders have left the stabilised cryptocurrency marketplace in favour of the more volatile global equity bear markets.

An alternative scenario can now be considered: Since completion of the triangle at the 24-JUL-2018 high, the concluding phase of the bear market may have declined and truncated at the 11-OCT-2018 low. If so, a cyclical (i.e. short-term) bull market may be commencing within an overall secular (i.e. long-term) bear market. Such a bull market would be termed as a wave-X as part of a complex ongoing long-term bear market structure.



In some schools of Elliott Wave thought, the wave-X bull market may unfold in five 1-2-3-4-5 impulsive waves; or, as three a-b-c corrective waves considered in other schools of thought. Either way, the size of a wave-X is challenging to predict. Typically, it may retrace either a Fibonacci 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% of the entire 2018 bear market; that is approx $11,081 or $12,720 or $14,360 or $16,705 respectively (BITSTAMP). In some cases, a wave-X may extend to, and even exceed prior all-time highs, like typically seen in commodity and forex markets. The wave-X cyclical bull market could be a swift parabolic move elapsing within 12 months during the course of 2019, and thus the overall secular bear market may still resume to unfold to a low in late 2020.


In summary, the parameters of the inflection point can be currently defined as follows, using BITSTAMP prices…

Bear Market Inflection Points

—A break below the 11-OCT-2018 low of $6,055 would be the first indication to suggest the bear market is still underway.
—A break below the 14-AUG-2018 low of $5,880 would confirm the ongoing bear market.
—A break below $4,000 may suggest an extended bear market leading to a 90%-95% collapse of the entire Bitcoin market by 2020.

Bull Market Inflection Points

—A break above the 15-OCT-2018 high of $6,756 would be the first indication to suggest a bull market may be commencing.
—A break above the 04-SEP-2018 high of $7,412 would likely confirm a bull market is underway.


Notes

—Bitcoin CBOE XBT futures expiries: 14-NOV-2018, 19-DEC-2018
—Bitcoin CME futures last trade dates: 30-NOV-2018, 28-DEC-2018
—Bitcoin ICE Bakkt daily futures tentative launch: 12-DEC-2018

—S&P500: global stockmarket indices appear to have topped, and a bear market is underway. Expectation is a rally into the end of year 2018 towards $2,800+ in the S&P500 index, followed by a decline to approx $2,400 by Easter 2019 to end the brief equity bear market.

—Gold: rally underway, expectation to conclude at approx $1,260, and then bear market resumes to sub $1,000 by 2020.

—US Dollar: expecting uptrend to be bounded by approx 98, and then bear market resumes.


Elliott Wave models are speculative and indicative of price and structure, not time; i.e. the projections may occur sooner or later than anticipated.

BTC (Weekly)



BTC (Daily)



BTC (4-hr)

[kronos123]

I understand that Elliot, like any other study and analysis on the graphs, studies the past to predict the future, and therefore is not synonymous with perfection, but rather everything is interpretable and modifiable with the price update and the addition and birth of new variables, however ..... but in this way, after this your new analysis you left "carte blanche" to the market.

It's like pulling a dime and waiting for heads or tails - you have 50% chance in both situations.
In this way and not exposing you as you did before, you gave two opposite analyzes and with the same probability of success, so in both cases you will be right! .....

..... or maybe, as JayJuanGee says, Bitcoin has a third chance and can also station another 2 or 4 or 12 months in a narrow price range, for example between $ 6,000 and $ 7,000, and "fuck" all the our analyzes and forecasts .... who can say?

In any case I understand that you believe that, in one way or another, very soon there will be a strong and clear movement by Bitcoin and the general market.
That's what I think too!

[drays]

It's like pulling a dime and waiting for heads or tails - you have 50% chance in both situations.
In this way and not exposing you as you did before, you gave two opposite analyzes and with the same probability of success, so in both cases you will be right! .....

Not exactly - as you can see, OP left carte blanche to the market only for the short term. For the long term he still keeps his unfavorable view on Bitcoin and crypto markets in general - still insisting on the long term BTC crash to 4k or even sub-1k. Quite stubborn guy, I would say

[JayJuanGee]

It's like pulling a dime and waiting for heads or tails - you have 50% chance in both situations.
In this way and not exposing you as you did before, you gave two opposite analyzes and with the same probability of success, so in both cases you will be right! .....

Not exactly - as you can see, OP left carte blanche to the market only for the short term. For the long term he still keeps his unfavorable view on Bitcoin and crypto markets in general - still insisting on the long term BTC crash to 4k or even sub-1k. Quite stubborn guy, I would say

Rather than using the word, "stubborn", perhaps "filled with hopium" might be a better description....?      

[g-uid]

It's like pulling a dime and waiting for heads or tails - you have 50% chance in both situations.
In this way and not exposing you as you did before, you gave two opposite analyzes and with the same probability of success, so in both cases you will be right! .....

Not exactly - as you can see, OP left carte blanche to the market only for the short term. For the long term he still keeps his unfavorable view on Bitcoin and crypto markets in general - still insisting on the long term BTC crash to 4k or even sub-1k. Quite stubborn guy, I would say

Rather than using the word, "stubborn", perhaps "filled with hopium" might be a better description....?      

You guys are laughing and mocking OP, but oddly enough you're all still watching what he has to say.

[drays]

It's like pulling a dime and waiting for heads or tails - you have 50% chance in both situations.
In this way and not exposing you as you did before, you gave two opposite analyzes and with the same probability of success, so in both cases you will be right! .....

Not exactly - as you can see, OP left carte blanche to the market only for the short term. For the long term he still keeps his unfavorable view on Bitcoin and crypto markets in general - still insisting on the long term BTC crash to 4k or even sub-1k. Quite stubborn guy, I would say

Rather than using the word, "stubborn", perhaps "filled with hopium" might be a better description....?      

You guys are laughing and mocking OP, but oddly enough you're all still watching what he has to say.

Well, as to me, I am not laughing or mocking (never did), just sometimes express my disagreement with few points, and some suspicions on the intentions. But as to the rest - yep, still following. It is always interesting to see what a smart and educated person has to say... even if I don't fully share his viewpoint and opinion

[JayJuanGee]

It's like pulling a dime and waiting for heads or tails - you have 50% chance in both situations.
In this way and not exposing you as you did before, you gave two opposite analyzes and with the same probability of success, so in both cases you will be right! .....

Not exactly - as you can see, OP left carte blanche to the market only for the short term. For the long term he still keeps his unfavorable view on Bitcoin and crypto markets in general - still insisting on the long term BTC crash to 4k or even sub-1k. Quite stubborn guy, I would say

Rather than using the word, "stubborn", perhaps "filled with hopium" might be a better description....?      

You guys are laughing and mocking OP, but oddly enough you're all still watching what he has to say.

Well, as to me, I am not laughing or mocking (never did), just sometimes express my disagreement with few points, and some suspicions on the intentions. But as to the rest - yep, still following. It is always interesting to see what a smart and educated person has to say... even if you don't fully share his viewpoint and opinion

Seems that I largely agree with your response Drays... and I would just supplement your points by asserting that a thread like this (35 pages long, by the way), can take some life of its own after being in existence for nearly 11 months, and a response to OP in February or March would likely be different from a response today, and furthermore, OP might appreciate the extent to which what s/he asserted then has played out or not, and whether there may have been some combination of luck in whatever assertion was then made that is subsequently more clear based on some hindsight.

By the way, we know in bitcoinlandia, there are all kinds of supposed experts who had been proclaiming the downfall of bitcoin since 2015 based on supposed technical analysis expertise, and surely at some point they will end up being correct, especially if they keep asserting some variation of the same thing over and over.

[muf18]

A little later than anticipated, but nonetheless - it dropped like it should. Now little itching of 6K, and back to the 'right' track.

Want to see all those, who are as always taking emotional approach to trading or charting xddd (although reddit is probably better for comedy gold).

[kronos123]

It's like pulling a dime and waiting for heads or tails - you have 50% chance in both situations.
In this way and not exposing you as you did before, you gave two opposite analyzes and with the same probability of success, so in both cases you will be right! .....

Not exactly - as you can see, OP left carte blanche to the market only for the short term. For the long term he still keeps his unfavorable view on Bitcoin and crypto markets in general - still insisting on the long term BTC crash to 4k or even sub-1k. Quite stubborn guy, I would say

Rather than using the word, "stubborn", perhaps "filled with hopium" might be a better description....?     

You guys are laughing and mocking OP, but oddly enough you're all still watching what he has to say.

Well, as to me, I am not laughing or mocking (never did), just sometimes express my disagreement with few points, and some suspicions on the intentions. But as to the rest - yep, still following. It is always interesting to see what a smart and educated person has to say... even if you don't fully share his viewpoint and opinion

Seems that I largely agree with your response Drays... and I would just supplement your points by asserting that a thread like this (35 pages long, by the way), can take some life of its own after being in existence for nearly 11 months, and a response to OP in February or March would likely be different from a response today, and furthermore, OP might appreciate the extent to which what s/he asserted then has played out or not, and whether there may have been some combination of luck in whatever assertion was then made that is subsequently more clear based on some hindsight.

Exactly what I have always said myself, "defending" OP several times from other users; "easy" today to make predictions and talk about catastrophes, crash market or recovery from 2020 onwards, but what I have always stressed is that OP author did it in January, first in the bitcointalk forum, and when everyone expected and called Bitcoin to new Ath.
Several times he was attacked that he changed his analysis during the various phases of the market, demanding from him a precision and an accuracy that can not be in any market, even more in this crypto.

The final and total analysis is the one that counts from the count Elliot of OP, and he has indicated several times around 1000 $ as the final target of Bitcoin in 2020.

Extraordinary still the importance and the note of the deadline of the future CBOE of yesterday, with the collapse of the entire market, expected in its "main" chart.

[Febo]

... , but what I have always stressed is that OP author did it in January, first in the bitcointalk forum, and when everyone expected and called Bitcoin to new Ath.

This is not truth. And I stressed it several times. There are lots of threads on this forum even calling ATH on time and normally predicting the bear market to happen same as it happened in previous bitcoin cycles.   I do not even know how would any reasonable guy who was here from 2013 think otherwise. To believe Bitcoin will just stay at $20k? LOL


Oh there is also a youtube channel with good on time predictions you might check if you really hate to read this forum.  https://www.youtube.com/user/TheKoziTwo/videos    He predict rarely but always on time and correct.

[g-uid]

... , but what I have always stressed is that OP author did it in January, first in the bitcointalk forum, and when everyone expected and called Bitcoin to new Ath.

This is not truth. And I stressed it several times. There are lots of threads on this forum even calling ATH on time and normally predicting the bear market to happen same as it happened in previous bitcoin cycles.   I do not even know how would any reasonable guy who was here from 2013 think otherwise. To believe Bitcoin will just stay at $20k? LOL


Oh there is also a youtube channel with good on time predictions you might check if you really hate to read this forum.  https://www.youtube.com/user/TheKoziTwo/videos    He predict rarely but always on time and correct.

Funny song in there from 2013: Bitcoin is a Bubble
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7TuFy0fcuw

"bitcoins a fad and its on fire
higher than a fantasy
like a singularity

bulls living in world full of denial
i'm feeling a catastrophy
they're thinking it can fly away

oohhh ohhhh ohhh i keep on riding my bear
though i'm falling a tear

oohhh ohhhh ohhh it's gonna crash to the ground
and i'm not backing down

Bitcoin is a bubble, Bitcoin is a bubble
its only a bubble, Bitcoin is a bubble"