Analysis

[Globb0]

I spotted the signal but I just cant seem to stomach the risk of margin.

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[JayJuanGee]

10000 is technically the traders perfect shorting point, because there is another harder resistance just above. Whether it breaks or holds we will see.

Oh my!!!!

Good luck with that.  You will likely need it.

I don't doubt that there is a decent amount of incentive for profit taking at these levels; however, there still seems to be little to no convincing narrative suggesting that there is a need for down before up.

Its not luck  (Todd).

Seems like luck to me.  If you keep proclaiming (with fists raised) down, sooner or later, you are going to get down, so I doubt that you are any kind of sorcerer in this matter.      

I have already made many posts in which I have been stating that I am a bit nervous in term of NOT having any significant and meaningful correction, since $3,850 (less than 2 months ago).  Yes, here we have had a BIG short term correction, but such correction has not played out yet... so I am not even sure about how meaningful and significant it is.. in terms of impacting the BTC price direction.. even though surely exciting on a short-term basis to experience close to $1,300 downward (close to -14%) in about 10 minutes.  That is surely exciting, but hardly any kind of reflection of anything meaningful unless there is a change in direction or something beyond mere consolidation.


By the way, I am not sure about what you mean by "Todd", and I looked it up on google, which does not cause me much clarity... the meaning was "sly like a fox" or something like that?

You believe that I am being sly, or did you have some other reason for that usage?

Profit already. Observing 8600

Have you changed your practices, Majormax?  Many times, I have heard you state that you make various kinds of short-to-medium term calls in order to help other members to think through "reasonableness," and you are NOT actually trading.

So seems that one of the main ways to profit from these kinds of negative BTC price moves, especially if you are thinking long term, as you proclaim to be doing, is to buy on the mother fucking dip.  AmiNOTrite?    So, in that regard, yes I have profited a wee bit.  How about you?  Or maybe I should be asking, what do you mean by "profit"?

Now its a better point to go long, or at least close the short, being below the (weak) resistance at 9000.

Hey?  We seem to agree about something, or at least, how the fuck would we have been shorting BTC in the first place, but that's just me.  I don't short the corn.  I only long and I only close some longs from time to time... but for the most part none of my longs are leveraged, except in the broader sense of my cashflow  and in the ways that I manage my cashflow that has some strategic uses of debt, but ultimately no real substantial leveraging....

Always the caveat that BTC is different from other markets, but its price sure is behaving much more like an established commodity nowadays.

No, it is not.  

By the way, this week's green candle has not closed, yet, and this week's would be the 8th one....

After everything else. This!

By the way... (as I type this post), we have about 7.5 hours before this weekly candle closes.... Maybe going to be a nail-biter?  In order to turn out green, it has to close above $8,910-ish.

[JayJuanGee]

Now let's see if this quickly retraces and if bears start piling on shorts. Either (or both) will give us some indication of where sentiment is at, and whether we can expect more carnage.

Yes. This is not now a point to put on new positions, possibly close out if you shorted from ~9900, which was the low risk trade.

The range from 6500 to 10000 has reinforced itself again, and the bearish nature of 10k rejection should make potential longs cautious.

Looking at fundamentals, the big shakeout of miners after halving is going to hit hashrate (as always) and it remains to be seen how long liquidations overhang the market.

Always the caveat that BTC is different from other markets, but its price sure is behaving much more like an established commodity nowadays.

agree, 10k was rejected few times before halving, and it is questionable could it be crossed in near future, without some fundamental positive news

Personally, it seems to me that Majormax tends to describe (perhaps dramatically) bitcoin's upwards resistance points as much stronger than they are, and from time to time, he has to modify his previous assertions to account for the fact that bitcoin has a tendency to be way the fuck more upwardly mobile than his lil mainstream price models would (or can) bear attributing.

I spotted the signal but I just cant seem to stomach the risk of margin.

Oh my, Globb0!!!!   If you have potentially accurate information that others do NOT have, then you better get your ass out there and trade it, before it is too late.. and then tell us later... after you already got your orders/bets in place. 

By the way, I am curious?  maybe you can disclose later, but what the fuck is the purported signal?  Are we going up or down?  I still don't see any odds of anything greater than 50% in either direction, especially after our quickie correction from  15-16 hours ago... (of course, looking at the time of your post (7 hours ago), your then information might have been a bit different from what information is available now, at the time of my typing this post).

[Majormax]

...

By the way, I am not sure about what you mean by "Todd", and I looked it up on google, which does not cause me much clarity... the meaning was "sly like a fox" or something like that?

...

Sorry to have confused you !  I was just being a bit lighthearted.  The quote , possibly a bit obscure, but I thought some traders would recognise it,  is Louis Winthorpe (Dan Ackroyd) in Trading Places. I felt it fitted the mood.

Just to be sure, I do not trade myself now. I have done enough of that in my career, successfully,  with other instruments than Crypto, but it takes a heavy psychological toll, and I don't want that any more. I sometimes quote technical info from a traders perspective just for illustration. BTW, I reckon about 40% of my career trades were mistakes and I let go of the need to be right some time ago, so I am certainly no prophet.

You must know I read your posts with interest and respect, because I recognise the amount of thought and research you put in. I will not knowingly snipe at anyone, so some of my apparent sarcasm will be accidental.

[podyx]

So we will see more down do you guys reckon?

[Majormax]

Personally, it seems to me that Majormax tends to describe (perhaps dramatically) bitcoin's upwards resistance points as much stronger than they are..

That's because, in an overall Bull trend the upper resistance points are of most importance to determining the rate of progress. It's just my humble opinion, and there are plenty of those on this forum !

The disagreement with my own assertions gives me far more useful information that any passive agreement, same as any argument/debate. Thats why I might appear provocative. It's never personal !

[JayJuanGee]

...

By the way, I am not sure about what you mean by "Todd", and I looked it up on google, which does not cause me much clarity... the meaning was "sly like a fox" or something like that?

...

Sorry to have confused you !  I was just being a bit lighthearted.  The quote , possibly a bit obscure, but I thought some traders would recognise it,  is Louis Winthorpe (Dan Ackroyd) in Trading Places. I felt it fitted the mood.

Just to be sure, I do not trade myself now. I have done enough of that in my career, successfully,  with other instruments than Crypto, but it takes a heavy psychological toll, and I don't want that any more. I sometimes quote technical info from a traders perspective just for illustration. BTW, I reckon about 40% of my career trades were mistakes and I let go of the need to be right some time ago, so I am certainly no prophet.

You must know I read your posts with interest and respect, because I recognise the amount of thought and research you put in. I will not knowingly snipe at anyone, so some of my apparent sarcasm will be accidental.

I believe that my skin is thick enough to accept a few snipes here and there.  I certainly snipe at you enough, because sometimes you just make me a bit mad with your analysis, which I frequently conjecture that you are tending to error too much in terms of trying to attribute mature features onto bitcoin, and so sure, sometimes I cannot really pinpoint why I am getting so worked up about what I perceive to be your overly bearish analysis, and maybe I become even more worked up when you end up being correct in terms of where the BTC price ends up going.  

But whatever, in the end, maybe even part of my "worked-up-ness" is a kind of exaggeration, too....and in the end, overall BTC's historical price performance (including where we are at currently) has been way the hell more bullish than even I could have imagined to be a realistic turn of events.  

I mean largely my minimum goal, in terms of my BTC investment, was to hope that it performed equally or better than the average of my remaining portfolio (which historically had been around 5.5% average per year), so anything at or above 5.5% average per year would make me feel pretty damned good, and surely, I would even be prepared to receive less stellar BTC price performance because of the fact that I had largely been considering the BTC portion of my investment to be serving as an overall hedge to my remaining portfolio which I perceived to have been way too dollar correlated.

So, ultimately, even if I had screwed up quite a few times in various aspects of my approach to my BTC holdings (which I have a few times), the portion of my overall investment portfolio that is attributed to my BTC holdings has way the hell out performed any and all aspects of my various other investments, and I have no reason to really speculate that in essence, BTC is going to continue to largely outperform all of those other asset allocations, and I am not even trying to talk my book in that respect.  

Before I got into bitcoin, I had thought that I was largely rich enough with my various traditional investments, at least in order to have had prepared myself for a reasonably comfortable life, even if some things kind of go to shit in various ways.  The supplementation of my overall future preparations with BTC has been merely serving as icing on the cake to an already decently good set of preparations....

Sometimes, I may reflect on myself and my own situation, but frequently when I am participating in these various kinds of conversations about bitcoin, I am also trying to account for the various questions and concerns that either bitcoin newbies might have or any members who are in a much earlier state of their wealth and/or btc accumulation stage of life.  

Accordingly, I do try to figure out and argue the case for the hypothetical newbie on a regular basis, and I tend to do that in the real world, too.  When someone asks me about bitcoin, I frequently will tell them to get started right away, and I don't care about what the price is... Of course, one of my reservations is that I will have concerns for anyone who either does not otherwise have their finances in order or someone who perceives themself to have a decently short investment time horizon.. such as anything less than 4 or 5 years.  

Personally, it seems to me that Majormax tends to describe (perhaps dramatically) bitcoin's upwards resistance points as much stronger than they are..

That's because, in an overall Bull trend the upper resistance points are of most importance to determining the rate of progress. It's just my humble opinion, and there are plenty of those on this forum !

Hm?  Maybe this is part of where we differ in our attempts at analyzing where we have been and where we are potentially going.

Of course, both support and resistance is important to attempt to understand, and frequently we might come to differing perspectives when we emphasize one or the other.

You should be seeing some value in some of the charts that show various historical BTC bottoms, too, no?  I mean, if you think about it, and if you look at it, looking at yearly BTC bottoms can be quite informative regarding BTC price direction, overall.

Of course, we frequently get blow off tops and even little baby blow off tops, and maybe part of the difference between our perspectives is that I consider those little blow off tops to be bullish, and you tend to consider them as bearish, even though both of us would conjecture that there has to be a correction at some point in time if the BTC price continues to go up in those kinds of crazy ass ways, that seems to happen on a fairly regular basis, and I have no real reason to speculate that crazy ass ups (and downs) are going to stop in bitcoin any time soon... it is almost guaranteed, so when it happens, from my perspective, there should be little to no need to get overly worked up about it... and perhaps I am wanting to see the glass as being half full... even though I hate to attribute spin motivations to myself... because I believe that I am merely attempting to describe the situation as factual even though my presentation is attempting to assert how wonderful bitcoin tends to be as an investment when we get crazy ass increases in price (even if just on paper for short periods of time), but then the bottoms keep going up too, so in the end, it seems to be less and less likely to be calling for crazy ass bottoms, and it seems to me that even you, majormax have kind of given up on your overly bullish sub $2k assertions... especially in the past couple of years (and yeah, just 2 months ago, we were getting damned close to revisiting lower lows, with that relatively extreme move to $3,850).

The disagreement with my own assertions gives me far more useful information that any passive agreement, same as any argument/debate. Thats why I might appear provocative. It's never personal !

Surely, even though you have explained your perspective so many times, I am not really going to proclaim to understand why, from my perspective, you seem so inclined to present and to argue various downside scenarios, I have not really tended to take any of your arguments and presentations personally because it kind of seems to me that you really believe what you are asserting, so you are trying to be genuine, rather than a beartroll.   So, I don't tend to take your presentations/arguments personally even though frequently, I feel an inclination to either respond or to at least attempt to get to you clarify what you mean... and much of that can be a learning process for me, too (whether I am learning about your position or my own thoughts about the subject matter). #nohomo.

[Bimmerhead]

Yeah, scramble to win or lose a few hundred dollars, git rekt, drama, blah blah blah.
A tale full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
HODL

And here is an example of someone losing a lot of money.

You don't lose it, if you don't sell.   


 

I never understood this statement.

You think if you don't sell your car it hasn't depreciated? Try using it as loan collateral.

[Globb0]

1 car = 1 car

Does a BTC wear out over time?

[JayJuanGee]

Yeah, scramble to win or lose a few hundred dollars, git rekt, drama, blah blah blah.
A tale full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
HODL

And here is an example of someone losing a lot of money.

You don't lose it, if you don't sell.   


 

I never understood this statement.

You think if you don't sell your car it hasn't depreciated? Try using it as loan collateral.

Both Globb0 and I have been registered in this forum for a much shorter time than you, Bimmerhead, yet we seem to have a bit of a better understanding regarding what bitcoin is and what it offers, as compared with you - especially based on your comment, which is crazy if you have been in bitcoin for nearly 10 years (according to your forum registration), yet still you don't seem to understand that Bitcoin is not a depreciating asset.

So, maybe I can supplement Globb0's message to say:

car ≠ bitcoin

I have only been in Bitcoin since late 2013, and I have come to realize various aspects of BTC fundamental dynamics, and at least what BTC has had to offer at that time and has largely been playing out with the passage of time.  Bitcoin's use case has probably been playing out even more bullishly than what many investors could have reasonably anticipated, and there is no reason to conclude that either present value or even anticipated future value based on present value for bitcoin is not going to continue to offer ongoing appreciation relative to other assets and currencies.

Hopefully, if you, Bimmerhead, can at least take from this interaction that you should zoom out a bit in your perspective in regards to what bitcoin is and what bitcoin happens to be offering, then perhaps you will be in a better position to thank me later (and Globb0, too).

[podyx]

Yeah, scramble to win or lose a few hundred dollars, git rekt, drama, blah blah blah.
A tale full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
HODL

And here is an example of someone losing a lot of money.

You don't lose it, if you don't sell.    


 

I never understood this statement.

You think if you don't sell your car it hasn't depreciated? Try using it as loan collateral.

Cars depreciate because new, better cars and new technology come out (for the same price)

[Bimmerhead]

Yeah, scramble to win or lose a few hundred dollars, git rekt, drama, blah blah blah.
A tale full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
HODL

And here is an example of someone losing a lot of money.

You don't lose it, if you don't sell.   


 

I never understood this statement.

You think if you don't sell your car it hasn't depreciated? Try using it as loan collateral.

Both Globb0 and I have been registered in this forum for a much shorter time than you, Bimmerhead, yet we seem to have a bit of a better understanding regarding what bitcoin is and what it offers, as compared with you - especially based on your comment, which is crazy if you have been in bitcoin for nearly 10 years (according to your forum registration), yet still you don't seem to understand that Bitcoin is not a depreciating asset.

So, maybe I can supplement Globb0's message to say:

car ≠ bitcoin

I have only been in Bitcoin since late 2013, and I have come to realize various aspects of BTC fundamental dynamics, and at least what BTC has had to offer at that time and has largely been playing out with the passage of time.  Bitcoin's use case has probably been playing out even more bullishly than what many investors could have reasonably anticipated, and there is no reason to conclude that either present value or even anticipated future value based on present value for bitcoin is not going to continue to offer ongoing appreciation relative to other assets and currencies.

Hopefully, if you, Bimmerhead, can at least take from this interaction that you should zoom out a bit in your perspective in regards to what bitcoin is and what bitcoin happens to be offering, then perhaps you will be in a better position to thank me later (and Globb0, too).

You missed the point. You think you 'lose' only if you sell an asset. And you probably think you 'win' only if you sell it. Those ideas may be true when you calculate your taxes, but I'm not convinced they're true otherwise.

[Globb0]

That's called realising the gains

[JayJuanGee]

Yeah, scramble to win or lose a few hundred dollars, git rekt, drama, blah blah blah.
A tale full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
HODL

And here is an example of someone losing a lot of money.

You don't lose it, if you don't sell.   


 

I never understood this statement.

You think if you don't sell your car it hasn't depreciated? Try using it as loan collateral.

Both Globb0 and I have been registered in this forum for a much shorter time than you, Bimmerhead, yet we seem to have a bit of a better understanding regarding what bitcoin is and what it offers, as compared with you - especially based on your comment, which is crazy if you have been in bitcoin for nearly 10 years (according to your forum registration), yet still you don't seem to understand that Bitcoin is not a depreciating asset.

So, maybe I can supplement Globb0's message to say:

car ≠ bitcoin

I have only been in Bitcoin since late 2013, and I have come to realize various aspects of BTC fundamental dynamics, and at least what BTC has had to offer at that time and has largely been playing out with the passage of time.  Bitcoin's use case has probably been playing out even more bullishly than what many investors could have reasonably anticipated, and there is no reason to conclude that either present value or even anticipated future value based on present value for bitcoin is not going to continue to offer ongoing appreciation relative to other assets and currencies.

Hopefully, if you, Bimmerhead, can at least take from this interaction that you should zoom out a bit in your perspective in regards to what bitcoin is and what bitcoin happens to be offering, then perhaps you will be in a better position to thank me later (and Globb0, too).

You missed the point. You think you 'lose' only if you sell an asset. And you probably think you 'win' only if you sell it. Those ideas may be true when you calculate your taxes, but I'm not convinced they're true otherwise.

Seems that you are missing some material ideas too, like I already mentioned, especially when you are persisting with your suggestion that there some kind of problem exists when people strive to diversify their investments with a non-traditional asset class, such as BTC, and your argument involves making an inapt comparison with an obviously depreciating asset (a car, which is a consumption good, if you had not realized).

In other words, individuals should be able to figure out when they believe themselves to be profitable or not without getting caught up in short term BTC price movement noise, based on their own circumstances, the extent to which they consider their bitcoin holdings to be in an accumulation phase, maintenance stage or a liquidation stage in terms of their choosing their bitcoin allocation level. 

In that regard, if you are looking at your bitcoin investment in very short term valuations, then you are likely to NOT be appreciating longer term BTC value and price movements, in spite the fact that you have been a forum member for a decently long period of time.. Strange, that..

[marcus_of_augustus]

Yeah, scramble to win or lose a few hundred dollars, git rekt, drama, blah blah blah.
A tale full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
HODL

And here is an example of someone losing a lot of money.

You don't lose it, if you don't sell.    


 

I never understood this statement.

You think if you don't sell your car it hasn't depreciated? Try using it as loan collateral.

Cars depreciate because new, better cars and new technology come out (for the same price)

... unless you have an E-Type Jaguar, D-Type Jaguar, etc ...

[Bimmerhead]

Strange, that..

It's strange because you're not understanding what we're discussing.

Never mind. It isn't important.

[JayJuanGee]

Strange, that..

It's strange because you're not understanding what we're discussing.

Never mind. It isn't important.

I will grant to you that maybe you and I might be talking about different topics, but I still stand by my original points and subsequent responses.  I also understand that there are a lot of participants in this thread worshiping the largely non-substantiated bearish boloney that Masterluc has been spouting out in recent years, so perhaps I have been a bit more hostile to those kinds of sentiments that I have been witnessing in this thread.

Of course, when I originally received backlash from you in response to my assertion that HODLers should not sell their BTC in order to NOT realize a loss, that was a blanket statement, made partially in jest, partly to talk against short-term trading and betting on DOWN and is largely responding to any hypothetical seller who sells BTC at a loss and then ends up locking in those losses because of premature selling too much BTC too soon. 

Understandably the circumstances of individual BTC buyers/HODLers is not going to be the same, and since I have ongoingly have personally emphasize bitcoin as a long-term investment, my comments tend to be around those kinds of presumptions, including the continued fact that comparing investing in bitcoin to investing in a car is not going to tend to lead anyone to more clarity in their understanding of what bitcoin is or what it offers, unless some better explanation/context to the analogy is provided.

[Globb0]

Strange, that..

It's strange because you're not understanding what we're discussing.

Never mind. It isn't important.

LOL I thought this message was to you from someone else

You cant distinguish the difference between a 10$ bill, that will still be a 10$ bill in 5 years time and a 10$ worth of jelly beans that will slowly rot and become worthless. Unless that is your general prediction for bitcoin?

[drays]

... I also understand that there are a lot of participants in this thread worshiping the largely non-substantiated bearish boloney that Masterluc has been spouting out in recent years, so perhaps I have been a bit more hostile to those kinds of sentiments that I have been witnessing in this thread.

Sorry for this small intervention in your discussion, but I just wanted to ask where did you see Masterluc "spouting" his "bearish boloney" "recent years"?
I am far from being someone who could "worship" anything, but as far as I know Masterluc, he is a long-term perma-bull actually. Even when he provides some mid/short-term bearish prediction, there is always some bullish context in his writings - either direct, like here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iNSP9waV-Historical-IV-almost-completed/:

"I remind, red will just delay big bull run by one-two years in my vision. While green one may start bull run in few months. "

, or indirect, like in many posts in VK he had done during the 2018 bear market (which I would not quote, due to them being in Russian).

One mid-term bearish prediction from him, was the latest "triangle" scenario, when he said something like "we will most probably revisit the weekly 200-MA one more time, before commencing bull market", at the time when this scenario seemed crazy practically to everyone (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.msg53048197#msg53048197, see the public reaction). However in fact that scenario played perfectly, to the surprise of most people here, including myself. After Bitcoin closed weekly candle below weekly 200MA, he had something like a bit of panic, but who didn't? Masterluc is known for his long-term scenarios, as to the short-term ones, he did a lot of mistakes there, and so they should be considered with a big grain of salt.

Again, I personally find it hard to see unsubstantiated bearish output from Masterluc. Even the one which seemed unsubstantiated at the time, was substantiated perfectly by the time and following events.

[JayJuanGee]

... I also understand that there are a lot of participants in this thread worshiping the largely non-substantiated bearish boloney that Masterluc has been spouting out in recent years, so perhaps I have been a bit more hostile to those kinds of sentiments that I have been witnessing in this thread.

Sorry for this small intervention in your discussion, but I just wanted to ask where did you see Masterluc "spouting" his "bearish boloney" "recent years"?
I am far from being someone who could "worship" anything, but as far as I know Masterluc, he is a long-term perma-bull actually. Even when he provides some mid/short-term bearish prediction, there is always some bullish context in his writings - either direct, like here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iNSP9waV-Historical-IV-almost-completed/:

"I remind, red will just delay big bull run by one-two years in my vision. While green one may start bull run in few months. "

, or indirect, like in many posts in VK he had done during the 2018 bear market (which I would not quote, due to them being in Russian).

One mid-term bearish prediction from him, was the latest "triangle" scenario, when he said something like "we will most probably revisit the weekly 200-MA one more time, before commencing bull market", at the time when this scenario seemed crazy practically to everyone (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.msg53048197#msg53048197, see the public reaction). However in fact that scenario played perfectly, to the surprise of most people here, including myself. After Bitcoin closed weekly candle below weekly 200MA, he had something like a bit of panic, but who didn't? Masterluc is known for his long-term scenarios, as to the short-term ones, he did a lot of mistakes there, and so they should be considered with a big grain of salt.

Again, I personally find it hard to see unsubstantiated bearish output from Masterluc. Even the one which seemed unsubstantiated at the time, was substantiated perfectly by the time and following events.

I could give less than two shits about what Masterluc says, but he gets quoted on a regular basis as some kind of diety on numerous occasions, and hopefully, not too many people are tricked into either waiting for lower priced BTC or failing to engage in proper BTC accumulation strategies such as DCAing, buying on dips and HODL merely because they believe that Masterluc is overall bullish even when he is frequently presenting himself as short term bearish while often being wrong in those kinds of assertions.

So, go ahead if you like, and attribute sorcery status to Masterluc, if that is what you are doing, and frequently, I would suggest that lots of people could get into trouble when they are attributing too much value to short term noise and short term calls of "down before up" and all that other bullshit, when instead they should be engaging in more prudent long term strategies that involve DCA, buying on the mf dips and HODL.