Analysis

[chunglam]

New comments from Masterluc - https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iNSP9waV-Historical-IV-almost-completed/
May 12 : Happy halvening and as I said earlier, price doesn't give a fuck about this event.
May 14 : Updating aka Cpt Obvious. Short-term bullish trend. Breaking this trend down will likely send price back to 5500 support. In other side if price following this trend break up long term descending trend line, we will likely see new ATH.

[exstasie]

May 14 : Updating aka Cpt Obvious. Short-term bullish trend. Breaking this trend down will likely send price back to 5500 support. In other side if price following this trend break up long term descending trend line, we will likely see new ATH.

Thanks for the update. My trend line is actually closer to $11,300 but I'm not sure it matters. What I'm primarily concerned about is the yearly pivot at $10.5K. If the market breaks that to the upside it should be meaningful.

I agree with him, this is a potentially huge inflection point. If bears maintain the yearly downtrend, then this triangle idea remains intact. Typical Wave (e) target is $5,700.

This is a tense situation. The price action looks bullish, the OBV looks bearish, the stock market is weak. We probably have a very interesting week ahead of us.

[Majormax]

May 14 : Updating aka Cpt Obvious. Short-term bullish trend. Breaking this trend down will likely send price back to 5500 support. In other side if price following this trend break up long term descending trend line, we will likely see new ATH.

Thanks for the update. My trend line is actually closer to $11,300 but I'm not sure it matters. What I'm primarily concerned about is the yearly pivot at $10.5K. If the market breaks that to the upside it should be meaningful.

I agree with him, this is a potentially huge inflection point. If bears maintain the yearly downtrend, then this triangle idea remains intact. Typical Wave (e) target is $5,700.

This is a tense situation. The price action looks bullish, the OBV looks bearish, the stock market is weak. We probably have a very interesting week ahead of us.

Yes,  10500 is one of the most important levels from a number of points of view (many previous post about this). I only look at simple volume/work areas, and not wave analysis.

A break of 10.5k might take a lot of work, but would be a great milestone if it happens.

On the bear side, the run-up from 3800 could accommodate a retrace to 6400, which is another busy area. ..Interesting that you have 5700 as target for completion of a downwave. I would have thought that getting as far as that was signalling a downtrend resumption.

[exstasie]

Thanks for the update. My trend line is actually closer to $11,300 but I'm not sure it matters. What I'm primarily concerned about is the yearly pivot at $10.5K. If the market breaks that to the upside it should be meaningful.

I agree with him, this is a potentially huge inflection point. If bears maintain the yearly downtrend, then this triangle idea remains intact. Typical Wave (e) target is $5,700.

This is a tense situation. The price action looks bullish, the OBV looks bearish, the stock market is weak. We probably have a very interesting week ahead of us.

Yes,  10500 is one of the most important levels from a number of points of view (many previous post about this). I only look at simple volume/work areas, and not wave analysis.

A break of 10.5k might take a lot of work, but would be a great milestone if it happens.

On the bear side, the run-up from 3800 could accommodate a retrace to 6400, which is another busy area. ..Interesting that you have 5700 as target for completion of a downwave. I would have thought that getting as far as that was signalling a downtrend resumption.

$5,700 is just an area of interest. I wouldn't necessarily bet the farm on it.

My theory is that we already are in a multi-year sideways bear market (December 2017-present). So a resumption of the downtrend just means staying inside the contracting long term range and not breaking out yet.

I like $5,700 for multiple reasons though. One, a failure here suggests a months-long re-accumulation phase, which makes the 200-week MA (currently $5,800) very attractive as a target. As we saw in March, BTC loves to make its bearish extremes early, then form higher lows. So speculating on a very short-lived wick below the 200-week MA may not be a bad bet. If we get there, it's a strong buy.

Second, a failure here gives support to that multi-year triangle idea. The most common retracement level for a Wave (e) is 70%. So this is more of an EW guideline than something particular to BTC, but I will say it's a very common reversal level in BTC too. The 0.705 level is known under another system as the "optimal trade entry (OTE)" for good reason.

Third, in my experience, people who are currently bearish will buy the dumps too early. The market is heavily leveraged long (Bitmex longs currently paying 0.0305% on swap interest, Bitfinex longs up almost 30% in a few days). The pressure from margin longs into low bid side liquidity is often underestimated during dumps. The March crash was a reminder of that. Lots of people will be aiming at the $6,200-$7,200 zone. There's a decent chance these early bulls will get washed out. Be careful catching the knife!

[STT]

I dont see 5500 as likely but forming a lower high here is quite possible and that leads to a pullback of some size we don't know yet.   I didn't see it as a bigger trend like he has drawn it but that's possibly still valid and just speaking generally, we still got to work through volume and prior sells from 2019.   That's part of why I think 2020 is a revision year not a rocket launch, not considering any of the news for or against but just on volume and prior action it seems to go that way.   Got to clear the snow drift before you can run down the road, despite it being summer most places :p

[chunglam]

MasterLuc May 17 : Just dropping some stones into short term bearish pan. Hidden bearish divergences on daily chart.

[exstasie]

MasterLuc May 17 : Just dropping some stones into short term bearish pan. Hidden bearish divergences on daily chart.

On the other hand, the weekly close was a bullish engulfing. Given the quick rebound to $10K, I'm not putting too much faith into that bearish divergence until we break last week's lows, or at least the daily lower BB (currently $8,330).

[Wekkel]

MasterLuc May 17 : Just dropping some stones into short term bearish pan. Hidden bearish divergences on daily chart.

On the other hand, the weekly close was a bullish engulfing. Given the quick rebound to $10K, I'm not putting too much faith into that bearish divergence until we break last week's lows, or at least the daily lower BB (currently $8,330).

I also think the divergence is weak. But a breakdown downwards would not be unexpected. For now, we're still in limbo.

[Bossian]

Latest update https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iNSP9waV-Historical-IV-almost-completed/
I like this trader, seems like very level-headed which is the best quality in the field.

[Bossian]

A key price for the bulls is 9.4k. If I was a bull I would be praying Bitcoin price can close this month at 9.4k (or over), but as the above chart shows, the chances of this happening are quite slim.

Still confident we go down from there, only fear I have at the moment is there seems to be (almost) a consensus among traders that Bitcoin price will go down for the whole year, and I hope the whales won't play with us and wreck our stop losses  

[Millionero]

a consensus among traders that Bitcoin price will go down for the whole year

Bullish!

[exstasie]

a consensus among traders that Bitcoin price will go down for the whole year

Bullish!

Yep, bullish if true.

There are however plenty of bulls in my feed, more than a few of whom are planning out the next parabolic bubble. Swap interest has remained positive for quite a while so Bitmex traders aren't heavily shorting. Bitfinex BTC short levels are low and still dropping, longs dropping too though. ETH longs are very high.

Sentiment seems mixed at best, and probably actually bullish.

[leyton11]

a consensus among traders that Bitcoin price will go down for the whole year

Bullish!

Yep, bullish if true.

There are however plenty of bulls in my feed, more than a few of whom are planning out the next parabolic bubble. Swap interest has remained positive for quite a while so Bitmex traders aren't heavily shorting. Bitfinex BTC short levels are low and still dropping, longs dropping too though. ETH longs are very high.

Sentiment seems mixed at best, and probably actually bullish.

Yes, I still have a medium to long-term bullish view. because there's no reason for the price of crypto to go down. Although the disease was still there, the stocks were still skyrocketing in the US. That shows that big investors are sniffing the potential of financial market in the future. I think if I just buy ETH now and hold it for 1 year, our profits could be double.

[chunglam]

masterluc May 29 comment : All right, price doesn't respect short term trend line. I see it likes triangles now. Okay. Hit or miss. Resolution is close.

[Wind_FURY]

masterluc May 29 comment : All right, price doesn't respect short term trend line. I see it likes triangles now. Okay. Hit or miss. Resolution is close.

I believe that last "triangle" that looks like this current "triangle" was the forerunner of a crash that went to $5,000.

Be ready? Buy the dip, and HODL?

[Majormax]

masterluc May 29 comment : All right, price doesn't respect short term trend line. I see it likes triangles now. Okay. Hit or miss. Resolution is close.

The pennant formation is a classic leader to resolution. The end of the pennant often seems to take longer than it should.

That overhead resistance is very strong, with 10 months of lower highs and classic failures at 13500, 10500 (twice) and 10000 (twice). It should worry potential long traders.

If there is a breakout to 11k+ that would be the first bullish sign. 14k cleared would negate the bear trend. An alternative likely scenario is a breakdown towards 6500, which should hold for at least the rest of the year, to build proper support.

As far as consensus goes, yes, I feel the bulls are most hopeful atm, but that could be changed by a decent breakdown from here, as the hopes of 10k+ are very strong.

[JayJuanGee]

masterluc May 29 comment : All right, price doesn't respect short term trend line. I see it likes triangles now. Okay. Hit or miss. Resolution is close.

The pennant formation is a classic leader to resolution. The end of the pennant often seems to take longer than it should.

That overhead resistance is very strong, with 10 months of lower highs and classic failures at 13500, 10500 (twice) and 10000 (twice). It should worry potential long traders.

This kitty cat is not worried, because he knows that resistance looks strong until it is not, then the kitty cat ends up laughing all the way to the bank (as has happened several times previously.. and no real reason to believe that history is not going to come close to repeating itself in some kind of financially meaningful way).  We have seen such doom and gloom fearing of resistance scenarios play out many times in bitcoinlandia...  so should HODLers be taking any chances to NOT making sure that they are adequately stacked, stocked and ready for UP?

If there is a breakout to 11k+ that would be the first bullish sign.

What are the odds of breaking above $11k on this particular run?  Maybe in your more bearish view you put the odds at less than 35%, and I might be approaching the 40% arena because I am more bullish, but still the difference in our outlook might not be very different, and hopefully our actions (of stacking and stocking up) are not much different, either... but I conjecture that both you (and people who follow your doom and gloom pronouncements) might end up erring too much in terms of failing and refusing to materially and sufficiently act in the stacking and stocking up direction.. just in case.   

14k cleared would negate the bear trend.

After $14k-ish, I am expecting some resistance in the $17k to $17.3k arena... but gosh, who knows in bitcoin?  Do you have a next resistance level that you are considering above $14k-ish?

An alternative likely scenario is a breakdown towards 6500, which should hold for at least the rest of the year, to build proper support.

I could see that... but of course, going down that far could also lead to a certain number of attempts at strong challenges to support.. but surely $6.5k is more than reasonable as a tentative assertion of a likely bottom for the coming 7 months or so.

As far as consensus goes, yes, I feel the bulls are most hopeful atm, but that could be changed by a decent breakdown from here, as the hopes of 10k+ are very strong.

I can see that, too... hahahahahaaha  Even though we have been largely bouncing in the lower to mid $9ks in the past 10 days or so, this battle is really likely to be trying to keep BTC prices sufficiently below $10k in order that retail does not start to FOMO buy too much in the event that we get too close to $10k, again... so sure, we will see... we will see.. nail biting.. and even difficult to say how long BTC prices can be kept in this range.. and like I said in several other posts in the past couple of weeks, I am not going to get too excited about any BTC prices that bounce between about $7,800 and $10,200... even though when the BTC price gets close to either end of the range, sure, I might start getting excited, even though I said that I wasn't going to .... call me a liar, if you will....   

[exstasie]

masterluc May 29 comment : All right, price doesn't respect short term trend line. I see it likes triangles now. Okay. Hit or miss. Resolution is close.

Yep, it's beginning to show the hallmarks of a triangle. Until the D wave is confirmed, $10K and $8.6K are the crucial pivots to break. Coincidentally, that's exactly where the daily upper and lower BBs are, respectively.

Get ready for a very powerful move within the next week or so!

Sentiment is feeling a little too bullish: Bitfinex shorts are dropping and already low, longs are rising, and generally there seems to be strong expectations for breaking $10K. On the other hand you might call it a bullish triangle given that it's a sideways consolidation following a larger uptrend. Furthermore the weekly and monthly uptrends still look quite strong. As I said in my thread I'm pretty neutral, somewhere on the spectrum of 60/40 bullish to 50/50.

At least the breakout range is getting tighter and tighter.

[JayJuanGee]

masterluc May 29 comment : All right, price doesn't respect short term trend line. I see it likes triangles now. Okay. Hit or miss. Resolution is close.

Yep, it's beginning to show the hallmarks of a triangle. Until the D wave is confirmed, $10K and $8.6K are the crucial pivots to break. Coincidentally, that's exactly where the daily upper and lower BBs are, respectively.

Get ready for a very powerful move within the next week or so!

Sentiment is feeling a little too bullish: Bitfinex shorts are dropping and already low, longs are rising, and generally there seems to be strong expectations for breaking $10K. On the other hand you might call it a bullish triangle given that it's a sideways consolidation following a larger uptrend. Furthermore the weekly and monthly uptrends still look quite strong. As I said in my thread I'm pretty neutral, somewhere on the spectrum of 60/40 bullish to 50/50.

At least the breakout range is getting tighter and tighter.

Yeah.. its going to break up all the way to $9,900, and then it will break back down all the way to $8,200, which ends up being a BIG SO WHAT.  At least for me.  But hey, not like any of this can be rushed unless someone might have an extra $50million lying around to try to prod matters, and that might not even be enough.

[Wind_FURY]

masterluc May 29 comment : All right, price doesn't respect short term trend line. I see it likes triangles now. Okay. Hit or miss. Resolution is close.

The pennant formation is a classic leader to resolution. The end of the pennant often seems to take longer than it should.

That overhead resistance is very strong, with 10 months of lower highs and classic failures at 13500, 10500 (twice) and 10000 (twice). It should worry potential long traders.

This kitty cat is not worried, because he knows that resistance looks strong until it is not, then the kitty cat ends up laughing all the way to the bank (as has happened several times previously.. and no real reason to believe that history is not going to come close to repeating itself in some kind of financially meaningful way).  We have seen such doom and gloom fearing of resistance scenarios play out many times in bitcoinlandia...  so should HODLers be taking any chances to NOT making sure that they are adequately stacked, stocked and ready for UP

NO, the smart HODLers SHOULD have bought the dip already, and ARE stacked, stocked, and ready.

I don't know honestly how I can continue buying the dip though under $10,000, it might be the last one. COVID-19 changed my monthly budget.