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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 935238 times)
Globb0
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June 27, 2019, 08:25:27 AM
 #6321

Twitter is cack.

I can see there are comments but cant view them. Keeps redirecting to the profiles.

Wanky.


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figmentofmyass
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June 27, 2019, 08:40:33 AM
 #6322

I found the tweet here. I hope that gives you more context, https://twitter.com/silver_watchdog/status/1142789426168377345

I believe QE means "Quantitative Easing"? But how can we find out if Tether has been printing more USDT?

you can track the circulating supply here: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/

without an audit there's no way to know if they are "printing USDT" out of thin air, but you can track the market cap/supply to see how much is being issued or redeemed.

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July 03, 2019, 11:20:02 PM
Merited by exstasie (1)
 #6323

any word from the Master?



At this rate we'll hit 30k in a month, and at that level, I highly doubt the parabola will end well.


It would be the 5th wave on long term charts and 5th wave is generally shorter.

Dreams of 50-100k+ may be cut short if we don't got some proper consolidation/correction.

Otherwise it's pop and drop and multi year bear market, longest one yet IMO. Would be interested what the top analysts say. Many I have heard agree that if we don't get a proper correction here, it's going to open up 3k or lower again.


Stocks are showing similar irrationality too.


Cheers
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July 03, 2019, 11:39:37 PM
 #6324

At this rate we'll hit 30k in a month, and at that level, I highly doubt the parabola will end well.

It would be the 5th wave on long term charts and 5th wave is generally shorter.

I wouldn't overgeneralize there. Wave 5s can be extremely strong and this has been seen many times in Bitcoin's internals. Since Historical Wave 1 was shorter than Wave 3, it's possible Wave 5 will be the strongest wave yet. I would not discount this possibility!

Historical Wave 5 could be the vertical leg of an S-curve.

Dreams of 50-100k+ may be cut short if we don't got some proper consolidation/correction.

That's true. We need this wave to subdivide in order to see significant extensions. Straight up in one vertical push would suggest a shorter Wave 5. And after that probably comes a bearish super cycle.

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July 04, 2019, 11:25:21 AM
 #6325

At this rate we'll hit 30k in a month, and at that level, I highly doubt the parabola will end well.

It would be the 5th wave on long term charts and 5th wave is generally shorter.

I wouldn't overgeneralize there. Wave 5s can be extremely strong and this has been seen many times in Bitcoin's internals. Since Historical Wave 1 was shorter than Wave 3, it's possible Wave 5 will be the strongest wave yet. I would not discount this possibility!

Historical Wave 5 could be the vertical leg of an S-curve.

Dreams of 50-100k+ may be cut short if we don't got some proper consolidation/correction.

That's true. We need this wave to subdivide in order to see significant extensions. Straight up in one vertical push would suggest a shorter Wave 5. And after that probably comes a bearish super cycle.

Cheers. I'm not so hopeful for wave 5 to be the strongest wave yet, if we don't correct and consolidate along the way.

Also I'm modelling the pattern on ETHUSD daily, not exact, but it's a typical setup - flag, pop and drop. The 5th wave out of the consolidation is a sign of euphoria, everyone thinks the trend is continuing, until suddenly it isn't and it's a rush for the exit.

There is also the upper trendline on the weekly/monthly to consider. If we keep going straight up here, that is going to be around 45k and I would expect it to get front run. I don't know the mathematical term but the market has been arcing downwards, losing momentum over time.

EDIT: also fibs, extensions etc. 30k is a good target.


The main thing is about structure, ATH and bearish super cycle could be closer than we think if we don't take a breather and I would be interested in Luc's perspective, although he does get a bit bulltarded.




Other thing is indexes are basically going parabolic, a sign of an irrational market IMO. Same story I think, might end badly.
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July 04, 2019, 06:11:32 PM
 #6326

Cheers. I'm not so hopeful for wave 5 to be the strongest wave yet, if we don't correct and consolidate along the way.

Also I'm modelling the pattern on ETHUSD daily, not exact, but it's a typical setup - flag, pop and drop. The 5th wave out of the consolidation is a sign of euphoria, everyone thinks the trend is continuing, until suddenly it isn't and it's a rush for the exit.

There is also the upper trendline on the weekly/monthly to consider. If we keep going straight up here, that is going to be around 45k and I would expect it to get front run. I don't know the mathematical term but the market has been arcing downwards, losing momentum over time.

EDIT: also fibs, extensions etc. 30k is a good target.

xxxx123abcxxxx has some good EW analysis that roughly agrees with you: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg50467456#msg50467456

I'm keeping EW guidelines in mind but I also think we need to consider the fundamentals underlying Bitcoin. I'm usually a technicals only kind of guy, but I've been punished hard in the past for ignoring Bitcoin's economic model in favor of EW guidelines. When the past cycles have resulted in huge exponential gains, I'm hesitant to assume it'll stop at 2x the ATH or less.

The main thing is about structure, ATH and bearish super cycle could be closer than we think if we don't take a breather and I would be interested in Luc's perspective, although he does get a bit bulltarded.

I'd love to see what he has to say. He's been a bit off the ball on his last few calls though.

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July 08, 2019, 02:57:40 PM
 #6327

Cheers. I'm not so hopeful for wave 5 to be the strongest wave yet, if we don't correct and consolidate along the way.

Also I'm modelling the pattern on ETHUSD daily, not exact, but it's a typical setup - flag, pop and drop. The 5th wave out of the consolidation is a sign of euphoria, everyone thinks the trend is continuing, until suddenly it isn't and it's a rush for the exit.

There is also the upper trendline on the weekly/monthly to consider. If we keep going straight up here, that is going to be around 45k and I would expect it to get front run. I don't know the mathematical term but the market has been arcing downwards, losing momentum over time.

EDIT: also fibs, extensions etc. 30k is a good target.

xxxx123abcxxxx has some good EW analysis that roughly agrees with you: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg50467456#msg50467456

I'm keeping EW guidelines in mind but I also think we need to consider the fundamentals underlying Bitcoin. I'm usually a technicals only kind of guy, but I've been punished hard in the past for ignoring Bitcoin's economic model in favor of EW guidelines. When the past cycles have resulted in huge exponential gains, I'm hesitant to assume it'll stop at 2x the ATH or less.

The main thing is about structure, ATH and bearish super cycle could be closer than we think if we don't take a breather and I would be interested in Luc's perspective, although he does get a bit bulltarded.

I'd love to see what he has to say. He's been a bit off the ball on his last few calls though.

I believe you are on point here. Just looking at the TA one would never see the price going over 10k before 2020. One has to peer into the economic fundamentals and price driven by adoption waves. If you understand why FB was valued at a billion even before it had many users and little revenue you can understand how little shifts in demands equal big gains in price as we have historically seen with Btc
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July 09, 2019, 07:26:50 PM
 #6328

"Booбщe, мeждy нaми дeвoчкaми, нaдoeлo мнe этo вce. Пpoгнoзы yжe нe тe y мeня, дeлaю я иx бeз былoй xвaтки и видeнья. Pacтoлcтeлa, ocтeпeнилacь вaнгa...

Ho вoт чecтнo гoвopя, пo пocлeднeй cитyaции нa pынкe, мoгy cкaзaть, чтo кpaткocpoчнaя мeдвeжья кapтинкa oпять внeзaпнo пopтитcя. Пpocтo xoтeлa этo cкaзaть."

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July 09, 2019, 07:32:59 PM
 #6329

And the translation from Google:

"In general, between the girls, I'm tired of it all.  Forecasts are not the same for me, I do them without the former grasp and vision.  Fattered, settled Vanga ...

 But to be honest, according to the latest market situation, I can say that the short-term bearish picture again suddenly deteriorates.  Just wanted to say it."

"The difference between a castle and a prison is only a question of who holds the keys."
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July 09, 2019, 07:52:16 PM
 #6330

Does that mean it's more bearish or less bearish now?
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July 09, 2019, 08:00:28 PM
 #6331

Does that mean it's more bearish or less bearish now?
Less bearish.

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July 09, 2019, 08:07:02 PM
 #6332

Tomorrow, the president of the FED, Jerome Powell, will talk in front congress. Will it tip his hand and explains how dovish he will be and will market participants feel how much he is ready to cut the federeal rate and create currency via QEs or other monetary options ?

It's possible the USD will tank, gold and bitcoin will rise.

Within 12 months, there will be a break-out and the trust in USD and EUR will go down, probably abruptly. This is very bullish for BTC. 

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July 09, 2019, 10:37:17 PM
 #6333

"In general, between the girls, I'm tired of it all.  Forecasts are not the same for me, I do them without the former grasp and vision.  Fattered, settled Vanga ...

But to be honest, according to the latest market situation, I can say that the short-term bearish picture again suddenly deteriorates.  Just wanted to say it."

it seems so. just like the failed h&s setup off $9100 last month, this correction failed to trigger a bearish reversal. the possibility for significant downside was there......but supply evaporated and bulls took over again. and now we've trapped lots of sellers in the $9000s-$11000s.

onward to $17000 now? maybe some sideways first.

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July 10, 2019, 12:19:04 PM
 #6334

"In general, between the girls, I'm tired of it all.  Forecasts are not the same for me, I do them without the former grasp and vision.  Fattered, settled Vanga ...

But to be honest, according to the latest market situation, I can say that the short-term bearish picture again suddenly deteriorates.  Just wanted to say it."

it seems so. just like the failed h&s setup off $9100 last month, this correction failed to trigger a bearish reversal. the possibility for significant downside was there......but supply evaporated and bulls took over again. and now we've trapped lots of sellers in the $9000s-$11000s.

onward to $17000 now? maybe some sideways first.

Interesting... The "supply evaporated" phrase triggered my old suspicions again Smiley

Did it look like the supply was there and suddenly disappeared because someone is playing, or do you think this rise looks natural?

I am not a fan of conspiration theories, but this strange premature, uninterrupted and unexplained rise is making me a bit nervous.

P.S. Unrelated - I like masterluk's sense of humor and self-irony, he seems to be a interesting person. In Russian it all sounds better, as always Smiley

... this space is not for rent ...
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July 11, 2019, 01:03:27 AM
 #6335

"In general, between the girls, I'm tired of it all.  Forecasts are not the same for me, I do them without the former grasp and vision.  Fattered, settled Vanga ...

But to be honest, according to the latest market situation, I can say that the short-term bearish picture again suddenly deteriorates.  Just wanted to say it."

it seems so. just like the failed h&s setup off $9100 last month, this correction failed to trigger a bearish reversal. the possibility for significant downside was there......but supply evaporated and bulls took over again. and now we've trapped lots of sellers in the $9000s-$11000s.

onward to $17000 now? maybe some sideways first.

Interesting... The "supply evaporated" phrase triggered my old suspicions again Smiley

Did it look like the supply was there and suddenly disappeared because someone is playing, or do you think this rise looks natural?

I am not a fan of conspiration theories, but this strange premature, uninterrupted and unexplained rise is making me a bit nervous.

P.S. Unrelated - I like masterluk's sense of humor and self-irony, he seems to be a interesting person. In Russian it all sounds better, as always Smiley

It’s only unexplained if you are missing information. It’s not premature it’s just faster than what people are used to
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November 11, 2019, 01:28:49 PM
 #6336

New post.



Quote
Tpeyгoльник длинoй 2-3 гoдa? Peaльнo! Peaльнo cкyчнo...
Translated:
Quote
Is the triangle 2-3 years long? Really! Really boring ...

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DeepOnion
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November 11, 2019, 05:09:17 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #6337

New post.


Quote
Is the triangle 2-3 years long? Really! Really boring ...

it reminds me of the triangle masterluc drew here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.msg2942495#msg2942495

back then we thought there was a long sideways coming too, but really we were just 2 months away from the launch of another bubble. Wink

it's hard to imagine reaching the $4000s from here and tbh the proportions of that triangle don't look ideal. i reckon it will be invalidated in time.

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November 11, 2019, 08:45:56 PM
 #6338

This triangle idea doesn't fit with his previous EW wave count: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JSP3KDmy-New-long-term-prediction-as-I-see-it-now/

If you press "play" you can see the published idea has played out perfectly so far. I wonder which prediction he prefers because they seem markedly different. Would love some more context.....

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November 11, 2019, 09:20:22 PM
 #6339

New post.


Quote
Is the triangle 2-3 years long? Really! Really boring ...
it's hard to imagine reaching the $4000s from here and tbh the proportions of that triangle don't look ideal. i reckon it will be invalidated in time.

To see a non-logarithmic chart from Masterluc is quite a rare sight ? I think there is just no more time to go back to the $4k bar just a blink of an eye away from the halving.

I just think this is a really bad forecast.
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November 25, 2019, 08:54:01 AM
 #6340

New post.


Quote
Is the triangle 2-3 years long? Really! Really boring ...
it's hard to imagine reaching the $4000s from here and tbh the proportions of that triangle don't look ideal. i reckon it will be invalidated in time.

To see a non-logarithmic chart from Masterluc is quite a rare sight ? I think there is just no more time to go back to the $4k bar just a blink of an eye away from the halving.

I just think this is a really bad forecast.

Sad but true
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