Analysis

[ssmc2]

New post from Masterluc on Tradingview: Short term analysis: ending diagonal (SHORT)

Can't say I agree with him, but it's something to keep in mind.

I assume price traces giant triangle correction since ATH . It is interesting that B-waves inside have impulsive subcounts.

I think that's the first clue that we aren't in a big triangle.....

Yeah,  think I prefer his chart from December 2018 lol

[Asrael999]

Doesn't MasterLuc normally post in Russian?

[Wekkel]

He just seems cautious and does not necessary predict a $6,000 dip.

[dmwardjr]

Here's my OPINION this is a "Bear Trap" and we WILL continue going up:  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/mP4ggYGh-MESSAGE-2-TO-BEARS-Here-s-SUPPORT-This-is-a-Bear-Trap/

[keystroke]

Another post from masterluc today.

"Everyone is shouting: halving, halving.  And in the comments under my ideas rave about them.  So, a fresh look.  I have the audacity to say that halving, as a scalar event, does not affect the price chart at all.  Two previous halving I experienced and observed.  Generally zero to ground.  Halving points fall into completely random places of different trends.  And they do not cause anything, not even the slightest reaction of the market, despite the general excitement and fundamental nature of the event.

 You know, this is probably a phenomenon even.  But there is an explanation.  Halving is the nature of Bitcoin, a metaphysical phenomenon that creates its essence and the manifestation of which cannot be found on the surface.  Halving is manifested in the fact that bitcoin is growing for a long time.  And in the spring you will not see anything special."

[exstasie]

Doesn't MasterLuc normally post in Russian?

On Telegram, yeah: https://t.me/bitcoin_wanga/48
However, he also posts forecasts on Tradingview (in English): https://www.tradingview.com/u/PentarhUdi/

"Everyone is shouting: halving, halving.  And in the comments under my ideas rave about them.  So, a fresh look.  I have the audacity to say that halving, as a scalar event, does not affect the price chart at all.  Two previous halving I experienced and observed.  Generally zero to ground.  Halving points fall into completely random places of different trends.  And they do not cause anything, not even the slightest reaction of the market, despite the general excitement and fundamental nature of the event."

Thanks for sharing.

I think he's wrong about this. I don't believe markets are efficient at pricing in speculative and psychological events. It's impossible to know that halvings have no effect on price. In fact, the proximity of the August 2012 and June 2016 rallies to halvings suggests the opposite.

[Millionero]

From empirical observation, the big booms exhibit a phase relationship with the halvings.
Cycle frequency, a bit less than four years.
You don't see the halvings causing immediate frenzy.  
Rather, momentum builds abetted by the halving's effects.

[Wekkel]

From empirical observation, the big booms exhibit a phase relationship with the halvings.
Cycle frequency, a bit less than four years.
You don't see the halvings causing immediate frenzy.  
Rather, momentum builds abetted by the halving's effects.

This.

And I can understand the message of Masterluc. Too much hype around the halvening indeed and no directly visible impact on the price in USD. We may as well linger for months on end after the halvening has taken place. Who knows.

[figmentofmyass]

And I can understand the message of Masterluc. Too much hype around the halvening indeed and no directly visible impact on the price in USD.

how could you definitively say there is no visible impact on price? take this bull run off the $6000s, for instance. how do you (and masterluc) know the market isn't being driven up by halving-related hype right now?

[Wekkel]

And I can understand the message of Masterluc. Too much hype around the halvening indeed and no directly visible impact on the price in USD.

how could you definitively say there is no visible impact on price? take this bull run off the $6000s, for instance. how do you (and masterluc) know the market isn't being driven up by halving-related hype right now?

What i mean is that the event itself, the day / the week / the month does not show an immediate impact on the price. If there is an impact, it’s much more indirect. That makes me a bit cautious now that the crowd treats it as a given bullish indicator.

[figmentofmyass]

how could you definitively say there is no visible impact on price? take this bull run off the $6000s, for instance. how do you (and masterluc) know the market isn't being driven up by halving-related hype right now?

What i mean is that the event itself, the day / the week / the month does not show an immediate impact on the price. If there is an impact, it’s much more indirect. That makes me a bit cautious now that the crowd treats it as a given bullish indicator.

if the efficient-market hypothesis has any validity, then the halving should affect prices long before the event itself. the market won't necessarily wait until may 2020 to begin moving.

look at what happened before the july 2016 halving. in may-june 2016, the price went from $440 to $780. was it due to the halving? it's impossible to tell, of course. it could be coincidental.

but it also seems silly to look at that event (and the current bull run from $6.4k to $10.4k) and act like they obviously have no visible effect on price. my gut reaction from looking at the charts is the opposite!

masterluc is drawing a very arbitrary trend line and sort of just deciding the uptrend is over now because of his internal wave b count. yet the wave b he has drawn (and also the larger degree B) are impulses, which he himself admits. it doesn't make any sense. he has a very unorthodox view of elliott wave theory.

this would be another one of those legendary predictions of old if he is proven right.

[exstasie]

What i mean is that the event itself, the day / the week / the month does not show an immediate impact on the price. If there is an impact, it’s much more indirect. That makes me a bit cautious now that the crowd treats it as a given bullish indicator.

Regarding the crowd, I think it's more of a mixed bag. The forum gives a skewed view because of all the sig spammers earning crypto and because, well, it's a Bitcoin forum.

However, like 2016, there are lots of naysayers claiming the halving is already priced in ("that's what the 2019 rally was!"), that the market is topping out, or that the halving itself is bearish:

Examples:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5213304.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5224803.msg53813709#msg53813709
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5223403.msg53782886#msg53782886

[Wekkel]

Excellent points made.

There is a fair chance that Halvening 3 (tm) will be the precursor for the next moonshot. Masterluc may prove too cautious, perhaps because of the attention his earlier predictions received over time, leading to a kind of cult status. Personally, I dig that position, but I am also fully aware that every light is turning green again.

This may become The Big One.

[keystroke]

This may become The Big One.

It went up infinity percent already, what's another 10x? 

[Millionero]

This may become The Big One.

It went up infinity percent already, what's another 10x? 

Well, you can't divide by zero now, can you?
I put the actual figure at about four or five million percent.
 

[StarenseN]

J0E008 ?

[Bossian]

A few things.

The market was already bullish before the two previous halvings. Therefore, there could be absolutely no correlation.

This time, in 2020 the market is not bullish yet, it is at a critical point right now but it won't be bullish before we break above 10.5k and so far it has proved to be a very strong resistance. If Bitcoin price retraces to 8k area, then we are still in a bear market. And if we are still in a bear market before the halvening occurs, we cannot predict the future based on what happened during the two previous halvenings as the trend and context are different (bearish).

Last thing: every time the herd says something, doing the opposite is likely to generate profits.

Right now the herd says we will see a new ATH because of the recent golden cross + incoming halvening.

Make your own conclusions.

[Globb0]

aha but what if everyone is trying to do the opposite?

[drays]

A few things.

The market was already bullish before the two previous halvings. Therefore, there could be absolutely no correlation.

This time, in 2020 the market is not bullish yet, it is at a critical point right now but it won't be bullish before we break above 10.5k and so far it has proved to be a very strong resistance. If Bitcoin price retraces to 8k area, then we are still in a bear market. And if we are still in a bear market before the halvening occurs, we cannot predict the future based on what happened during the two previous halvenings as the trend and context are different (bearish).

Last thing: every time the herd says something, doing the opposite is likely to generate profits.

Right now the herd says we will see a new ATH because of the recent golden cross + incoming halvening.

Make your own conclusions.

Heh  

Do you have a special 'certified herd place' where you unmistakably read the herd's opinion? Or do you have an access to user opinion statistics to find out what 'herd' really thinks?
People say lots of different things - and depending on where you prefer to look for opinions, you could get completely different views on what 'herd' says.

In general, you are right, doing the opposite of what herd says, is likely to generate profits. But 'who is the part of the herd, and who isn't' - is the real question. From what I have seen, everyone thinks he is the genius, and the rest are the herd.

[kellrobinson]

everyone thinks he is the genius, and the rest are the herd.

I resemble that remark!