Analysis

[Globb0]

1 car = 1 car

Does a BTC wear out over time?

[JayJuanGee]

Yeah, scramble to win or lose a few hundred dollars, git rekt, drama, blah blah blah.
A tale full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
HODL

And here is an example of someone losing a lot of money.

You don't lose it, if you don't sell.   


 

I never understood this statement.

You think if you don't sell your car it hasn't depreciated? Try using it as loan collateral.

Both Globb0 and I have been registered in this forum for a much shorter time than you, Bimmerhead, yet we seem to have a bit of a better understanding regarding what bitcoin is and what it offers, as compared with you - especially based on your comment, which is crazy if you have been in bitcoin for nearly 10 years (according to your forum registration), yet still you don't seem to understand that Bitcoin is not a depreciating asset.

So, maybe I can supplement Globb0's message to say:

car ≠ bitcoin

I have only been in Bitcoin since late 2013, and I have come to realize various aspects of BTC fundamental dynamics, and at least what BTC has had to offer at that time and has largely been playing out with the passage of time.  Bitcoin's use case has probably been playing out even more bullishly than what many investors could have reasonably anticipated, and there is no reason to conclude that either present value or even anticipated future value based on present value for bitcoin is not going to continue to offer ongoing appreciation relative to other assets and currencies.

Hopefully, if you, Bimmerhead, can at least take from this interaction that you should zoom out a bit in your perspective in regards to what bitcoin is and what bitcoin happens to be offering, then perhaps you will be in a better position to thank me later (and Globb0, too).

[podyx]

Yeah, scramble to win or lose a few hundred dollars, git rekt, drama, blah blah blah.
A tale full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
HODL

And here is an example of someone losing a lot of money.

You don't lose it, if you don't sell.    


 

I never understood this statement.

You think if you don't sell your car it hasn't depreciated? Try using it as loan collateral.

Cars depreciate because new, better cars and new technology come out (for the same price)

[Bimmerhead]

Yeah, scramble to win or lose a few hundred dollars, git rekt, drama, blah blah blah.
A tale full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
HODL

And here is an example of someone losing a lot of money.

You don't lose it, if you don't sell.   


 

I never understood this statement.

You think if you don't sell your car it hasn't depreciated? Try using it as loan collateral.

Both Globb0 and I have been registered in this forum for a much shorter time than you, Bimmerhead, yet we seem to have a bit of a better understanding regarding what bitcoin is and what it offers, as compared with you - especially based on your comment, which is crazy if you have been in bitcoin for nearly 10 years (according to your forum registration), yet still you don't seem to understand that Bitcoin is not a depreciating asset.

So, maybe I can supplement Globb0's message to say:

car ≠ bitcoin

I have only been in Bitcoin since late 2013, and I have come to realize various aspects of BTC fundamental dynamics, and at least what BTC has had to offer at that time and has largely been playing out with the passage of time.  Bitcoin's use case has probably been playing out even more bullishly than what many investors could have reasonably anticipated, and there is no reason to conclude that either present value or even anticipated future value based on present value for bitcoin is not going to continue to offer ongoing appreciation relative to other assets and currencies.

Hopefully, if you, Bimmerhead, can at least take from this interaction that you should zoom out a bit in your perspective in regards to what bitcoin is and what bitcoin happens to be offering, then perhaps you will be in a better position to thank me later (and Globb0, too).

You missed the point. You think you 'lose' only if you sell an asset. And you probably think you 'win' only if you sell it. Those ideas may be true when you calculate your taxes, but I'm not convinced they're true otherwise.

[Globb0]

That's called realising the gains

[JayJuanGee]

Yeah, scramble to win or lose a few hundred dollars, git rekt, drama, blah blah blah.
A tale full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
HODL

And here is an example of someone losing a lot of money.

You don't lose it, if you don't sell.   


 

I never understood this statement.

You think if you don't sell your car it hasn't depreciated? Try using it as loan collateral.

Both Globb0 and I have been registered in this forum for a much shorter time than you, Bimmerhead, yet we seem to have a bit of a better understanding regarding what bitcoin is and what it offers, as compared with you - especially based on your comment, which is crazy if you have been in bitcoin for nearly 10 years (according to your forum registration), yet still you don't seem to understand that Bitcoin is not a depreciating asset.

So, maybe I can supplement Globb0's message to say:

car ≠ bitcoin

I have only been in Bitcoin since late 2013, and I have come to realize various aspects of BTC fundamental dynamics, and at least what BTC has had to offer at that time and has largely been playing out with the passage of time.  Bitcoin's use case has probably been playing out even more bullishly than what many investors could have reasonably anticipated, and there is no reason to conclude that either present value or even anticipated future value based on present value for bitcoin is not going to continue to offer ongoing appreciation relative to other assets and currencies.

Hopefully, if you, Bimmerhead, can at least take from this interaction that you should zoom out a bit in your perspective in regards to what bitcoin is and what bitcoin happens to be offering, then perhaps you will be in a better position to thank me later (and Globb0, too).

You missed the point. You think you 'lose' only if you sell an asset. And you probably think you 'win' only if you sell it. Those ideas may be true when you calculate your taxes, but I'm not convinced they're true otherwise.

Seems that you are missing some material ideas too, like I already mentioned, especially when you are persisting with your suggestion that there some kind of problem exists when people strive to diversify their investments with a non-traditional asset class, such as BTC, and your argument involves making an inapt comparison with an obviously depreciating asset (a car, which is a consumption good, if you had not realized).

In other words, individuals should be able to figure out when they believe themselves to be profitable or not without getting caught up in short term BTC price movement noise, based on their own circumstances, the extent to which they consider their bitcoin holdings to be in an accumulation phase, maintenance stage or a liquidation stage in terms of their choosing their bitcoin allocation level. 

In that regard, if you are looking at your bitcoin investment in very short term valuations, then you are likely to NOT be appreciating longer term BTC value and price movements, in spite the fact that you have been a forum member for a decently long period of time.. Strange, that..

[marcus_of_augustus]

Yeah, scramble to win or lose a few hundred dollars, git rekt, drama, blah blah blah.
A tale full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
HODL

And here is an example of someone losing a lot of money.

You don't lose it, if you don't sell.    


 

I never understood this statement.

You think if you don't sell your car it hasn't depreciated? Try using it as loan collateral.

Cars depreciate because new, better cars and new technology come out (for the same price)

... unless you have an E-Type Jaguar, D-Type Jaguar, etc ...

[Bimmerhead]

Strange, that..

It's strange because you're not understanding what we're discussing.

Never mind. It isn't important.

[JayJuanGee]

Strange, that..

It's strange because you're not understanding what we're discussing.

Never mind. It isn't important.

I will grant to you that maybe you and I might be talking about different topics, but I still stand by my original points and subsequent responses.  I also understand that there are a lot of participants in this thread worshiping the largely non-substantiated bearish boloney that Masterluc has been spouting out in recent years, so perhaps I have been a bit more hostile to those kinds of sentiments that I have been witnessing in this thread.

Of course, when I originally received backlash from you in response to my assertion that HODLers should not sell their BTC in order to NOT realize a loss, that was a blanket statement, made partially in jest, partly to talk against short-term trading and betting on DOWN and is largely responding to any hypothetical seller who sells BTC at a loss and then ends up locking in those losses because of premature selling too much BTC too soon. 

Understandably the circumstances of individual BTC buyers/HODLers is not going to be the same, and since I have ongoingly have personally emphasize bitcoin as a long-term investment, my comments tend to be around those kinds of presumptions, including the continued fact that comparing investing in bitcoin to investing in a car is not going to tend to lead anyone to more clarity in their understanding of what bitcoin is or what it offers, unless some better explanation/context to the analogy is provided.

[Globb0]

Strange, that..

It's strange because you're not understanding what we're discussing.

Never mind. It isn't important.

LOL I thought this message was to you from someone else

You cant distinguish the difference between a 10$ bill, that will still be a 10$ bill in 5 years time and a 10$ worth of jelly beans that will slowly rot and become worthless. Unless that is your general prediction for bitcoin?

[drays]

... I also understand that there are a lot of participants in this thread worshiping the largely non-substantiated bearish boloney that Masterluc has been spouting out in recent years, so perhaps I have been a bit more hostile to those kinds of sentiments that I have been witnessing in this thread.

Sorry for this small intervention in your discussion, but I just wanted to ask where did you see Masterluc "spouting" his "bearish boloney" "recent years"?
I am far from being someone who could "worship" anything, but as far as I know Masterluc, he is a long-term perma-bull actually. Even when he provides some mid/short-term bearish prediction, there is always some bullish context in his writings - either direct, like here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iNSP9waV-Historical-IV-almost-completed/:

"I remind, red will just delay big bull run by one-two years in my vision. While green one may start bull run in few months. "

, or indirect, like in many posts in VK he had done during the 2018 bear market (which I would not quote, due to them being in Russian).

One mid-term bearish prediction from him, was the latest "triangle" scenario, when he said something like "we will most probably revisit the weekly 200-MA one more time, before commencing bull market", at the time when this scenario seemed crazy practically to everyone (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.msg53048197#msg53048197, see the public reaction). However in fact that scenario played perfectly, to the surprise of most people here, including myself. After Bitcoin closed weekly candle below weekly 200MA, he had something like a bit of panic, but who didn't? Masterluc is known for his long-term scenarios, as to the short-term ones, he did a lot of mistakes there, and so they should be considered with a big grain of salt.

Again, I personally find it hard to see unsubstantiated bearish output from Masterluc. Even the one which seemed unsubstantiated at the time, was substantiated perfectly by the time and following events.

[JayJuanGee]

... I also understand that there are a lot of participants in this thread worshiping the largely non-substantiated bearish boloney that Masterluc has been spouting out in recent years, so perhaps I have been a bit more hostile to those kinds of sentiments that I have been witnessing in this thread.

Sorry for this small intervention in your discussion, but I just wanted to ask where did you see Masterluc "spouting" his "bearish boloney" "recent years"?
I am far from being someone who could "worship" anything, but as far as I know Masterluc, he is a long-term perma-bull actually. Even when he provides some mid/short-term bearish prediction, there is always some bullish context in his writings - either direct, like here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iNSP9waV-Historical-IV-almost-completed/:

"I remind, red will just delay big bull run by one-two years in my vision. While green one may start bull run in few months. "

, or indirect, like in many posts in VK he had done during the 2018 bear market (which I would not quote, due to them being in Russian).

One mid-term bearish prediction from him, was the latest "triangle" scenario, when he said something like "we will most probably revisit the weekly 200-MA one more time, before commencing bull market", at the time when this scenario seemed crazy practically to everyone (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.msg53048197#msg53048197, see the public reaction). However in fact that scenario played perfectly, to the surprise of most people here, including myself. After Bitcoin closed weekly candle below weekly 200MA, he had something like a bit of panic, but who didn't? Masterluc is known for his long-term scenarios, as to the short-term ones, he did a lot of mistakes there, and so they should be considered with a big grain of salt.

Again, I personally find it hard to see unsubstantiated bearish output from Masterluc. Even the one which seemed unsubstantiated at the time, was substantiated perfectly by the time and following events.

I could give less than two shits about what Masterluc says, but he gets quoted on a regular basis as some kind of diety on numerous occasions, and hopefully, not too many people are tricked into either waiting for lower priced BTC or failing to engage in proper BTC accumulation strategies such as DCAing, buying on dips and HODL merely because they believe that Masterluc is overall bullish even when he is frequently presenting himself as short term bearish while often being wrong in those kinds of assertions.

So, go ahead if you like, and attribute sorcery status to Masterluc, if that is what you are doing, and frequently, I would suggest that lots of people could get into trouble when they are attributing too much value to short term noise and short term calls of "down before up" and all that other bullshit, when instead they should be engaging in more prudent long term strategies that involve DCA, buying on the mf dips and HODL.

[drays]

... I also understand that there are a lot of participants in this thread worshiping the largely non-substantiated bearish boloney that Masterluc has been spouting out in recent years, so perhaps I have been a bit more hostile to those kinds of sentiments that I have been witnessing in this thread.

Sorry for this small intervention in your discussion, but I just wanted to ask where did you see Masterluc "spouting" his "bearish boloney" "recent years"?
I am far from being someone who could "worship" anything, but as far as I know Masterluc, he is a long-term perma-bull actually. Even when he provides some mid/short-term bearish prediction, there is always some bullish context in his writings - either direct, like here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iNSP9waV-Historical-IV-almost-completed/:

"I remind, red will just delay big bull run by one-two years in my vision. While green one may start bull run in few months. "

, or indirect, like in many posts in VK he had done during the 2018 bear market (which I would not quote, due to them being in Russian).

One mid-term bearish prediction from him, was the latest "triangle" scenario, when he said something like "we will most probably revisit the weekly 200-MA one more time, before commencing bull market", at the time when this scenario seemed crazy practically to everyone (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.msg53048197#msg53048197, see the public reaction). However in fact that scenario played perfectly, to the surprise of most people here, including myself. After Bitcoin closed weekly candle below weekly 200MA, he had something like a bit of panic, but who didn't? Masterluc is known for his long-term scenarios, as to the short-term ones, he did a lot of mistakes there, and so they should be considered with a big grain of salt.

Again, I personally find it hard to see unsubstantiated bearish output from Masterluc. Even the one which seemed unsubstantiated at the time, was substantiated perfectly by the time and following events.

I could give less than two shits about what Masterluc says, but he gets quoted on a regular basis as some kind of diety on numerous occasions, and hopefully, not too many people are tricked into either waiting for lower priced BTC or failing to engage in proper BTC accumulation strategies such as DCAing, buying on dips and HODL merely because they believe that Masterluc is overall bullish even when he is frequently presenting himself as short term bearish while often being wrong in those kinds of assertions.

So, go ahead if you like, and attribute sorcery status to Masterluc, if that is what you are doing, and frequently, I would suggest that lots of people could get into trouble when they are attributing too much value to short term noise and short term calls of "down before up" and all that other bullshit, when instead they should be engaging in more prudent long term strategies that involve DCA, buying on the mf dips and HODL.

I have absolutely no intention to attribute any deity or sorcery status to a man. This thread is dedicated to Masterluc analysis, so I thought it would be fair to expect an information posted in this thread, to be factually correct regarding the views Masterluc expressed. That's it.

Thinking big or thinking small, engaging into prudent strategies or just trading on a whim - it is a personal choice of a trader; I believe it is based on a personality type more than on anything else, and it has nothing to do with what Masterluc tells or "predicts". For me personally, he was a calming voice during 2018 bear market, with his steady confidence on the values Bitcoin offers. Not sure whether he influenced my decisions, but he definitely helped me to feel better about overall situation and to keep positive outlook, which I value much higher than possible profits I could have made at the time.

[Bimmerhead]

I could give less than two shits about what Masterluc says,

Then I have to ask, why are you here on a thread that he started, and that is devoted to his prognostications?

[Globb0]

You sad fanbois. He is long gone from this forum. Once upon a time it was different.

But get with reality.

You want to pay homage build a shrine or something.

[JayJuanGee]

I could give less than two shits about what Masterluc says,

Then I have to ask, why are you here on a thread that he started, and that is devoted to his prognostications?

I am here to respond to whatever issues I might deem worthy of response at the time that I choose to respond (or not to respond, if I so choose).  I see Masterluc quoted in several places on the forum, including references to this thread, which drew my attention to this thread.

Hey, if anyone, whether masterluc, or someone else gives some plausible explanations that reasonably describe current BTC price dynamics, and they back up any predictions that they make, whether bearish or bullish, then I have no problem also giving some weight to those kinds of BTC price direction predictions and BTC price dynamics descriptions.

Frequently, there can be a problem with the assignment of sorcery status or too much deference to anyone, whether that sorcery status assignment is self-proclaimed or through others, and whether it is to masterluc or some other person, and for the most part, no one knows where the fuck the BTC price is going to go in the short-term beyond the assignment of probabilities, and attempts to account for as many factors that they are able to possibly know, including human behavior that might be beyond any given formula, and surely some scenarios are going to be more likely than others, and frequently part of the problem of BTC price prediction and description comes when too much weight is given to one direction or another which might involve giving too much weight to certain factors including giving too much weight to lines drawn on charts, whether those lines are adequately accounting for the various factors.

So, sure there can be some value to charts, predictions and descriptions of BTC price directions, but sometimes the plotting out of these kinds of matters cause others to assignment too much weight to squiggly lines on charts based on the fact that they see them drawn on the charts, and sometimes those lines have been way the fuck inadequately explained which masterluc has been frequently guilty of vague as fuck explanations that are given way the fuck too much weight.

[drays]

You sad fanbois. He is long gone from this forum. Once upon a time it was different.

But get with reality.

You want to pay homage build a shrine or something.

What a pointless comment. Surprising to see it from you, Globb0; not sure whom you direct it to, I had an impression you are better at understanding a written text.
Maybe its my English. Mea culpa

[Globb0]

Several people came with good analysis and were chased out by this you are not worthy of Luc's thread. Where is he?

He just posts, maybe if its even him? somewhere else in russian about pool shots and it could be bearish or bullish and so on. With everyone guessing the translation.

Let him come here and I will happily shut up.

Thanks for the nice comment I apologise to disappoint you.

[exstasie]

You sad fanbois. He is long gone from this forum. Once upon a time it was different.

But get with reality.

You want to pay homage build a shrine or something.

What's the problem? He has made some legendary calls over the years. In fact, he's the one who inspired me to become a technical analyst in the first place. I think David Ward (dmwardjr) has said something similar too.

Nothing wrong with paying attention to what he has to say!

He just posts, maybe if its even him? somewhere else in russian about pool shots and it could be bearish or bullish and so on. With everyone guessing the translation.

He posts in English on Tradingview. I don't care about the language anyway. I just want to see his charts and what levels he is watching.

I still follow a bunch of traders from the old days, as well as newer guys. I need alternative ideas to challenge my biases. The more ideas the better.

[drays]

Several people came with good analysis and were chased out by this you are not worthy of Luc's thread. Where is he?

He just posts, maybe if its even him? somewhere else in russian about pool shots and it could be bearish or bullish and so on. With everyone guessing the translation.

Let him come here and I will happily shut up.

Really..? I have listened about Masterluc's cult status, but have never observed it myself. Probably at the time I really began following BTC price movements, his glory have faded a bit.
In fact, I have seen a lot of self-irony from him, he doesn't behave like a cult-person even a little bit.

For me he is an interesting well-educated guy with unique sense of humor and erudition (often disguised behind typical Russian mat-based informal speaking), hiding behind bitcoin_vanga name, and funny Janet Yellen avatar, which together is quite self-ironic. I enjoy reading specifically his rare Russian posts; when he posts in English, the whole charm fades, and only the charts (the ones exstasie is about ), remain. I don't think he will return to this forum. He seems to be really lazy guy, too lazy to post often and discuss things in English, imho.