Analysis

[birr]

On one hand, high volume leads one to believe the bottom is in.
On the other hand, the weekly closed maybe four hundred dollars below the 200 SMA.

[exstasie]

On one hand, high volume leads one to believe the bottom is in.
On the other hand, the weekly closed maybe four hundred dollars below the 200 SMA.

Most traders use UTC for open and closes. It's 8:30 PM UTC on Sunday night, so the weekly candle closes in 3.5 hours.

The 200-week MA is at $5,500 and we are currently trading near $5,300. If we close here, it might be "close enough" assuming a recovery is still coming. Go back to Q3 2015 and you'll see there were 3 (slight) weekly candle closes below the 200-week MA before recovery. 



Something I had not noticed before: the 200-week smoothed MA stands at $4,000. We bounced off it just like August 2015.

[Majormax]

I was looking for the best place to look for volume too, and thought CMC could be one, as it shows volume accumulated over tens of multiple exchanges. So if we look at the volume on the chart here: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/, the volume on these days (March 13-14) is unmatched - way more than ever.

Not sure how trustworthy those numbers are though. Anyone knows a better place to see the overall worldwide BTC volume? Would appreciate if someone point to it.

i wouldn't trust CMC's numbers. i would look at the top "real volume" exchanges as listed here (although i'm not sure if poloniex is legit anymore either): https://twitter.com/BitwiseInvest/status/1109114665240616962

the market saw monumental volume across the board. if that were the only metric that mattered, i'd say we obviously bottomed already.

At least its one metric that is positive.

Looking at that volume chart, it would suggest that the bear market that started in  Dec 2017 is only now just starting to complete.

The price information is not quite consistent, because there is something close to a double bottom in place, and that has never happened (not even remotely close) before.

Anyway, if the bear market was ~27 months, then working from that scale, a 6 month consolidation, and a 2 year winter could follow. It puts 2023 as a recovery year.

The chart looks odd and the move incomplete so far, so I would not expect further enlightenment for the rest of this year.

Conclusion :  BTC traders and holdlers best go into lockdown/hibernation with most of the world.

[Bossian]

The 200-week MA is at $5,500 and we are currently trading near $5,300. If we close here, it might be "close enough" assuming a recovery is still coming.

I think the same. I am still bearish but could be wrong (nobody is perfect), but I would wait to buy around 6.5k instead of 5.5k. Not a big loss in the big picture assuming we see a new ATH (and I sold at 8.8k anyway  minus the infamous 0.05 because I have to respect LFC views in this matter).

[Bossian]

Masterluc used to work a lot using triangles, well there is this one since 2017, quite a scary one.

Technically I am aware Bitcoin price went below 5k this week but for a very short time, no consolidation between 3.8k and 5k observed (yet) so I consider we are still inside the triangle.

Wonder what Masterluc would make of this.

His emphasis appears to be on the weekly 200 SMA. Since he considered the 200 SMA tests in 2015 as holding, I can only assume the important thing is closing (the weekly candle) near or above it. Wicks should be fine. The price needs to close above $5,500 and preferably would create some distance above it.

Otherwise he predicts a "very bearish breakdown" which I would more or less agree with:

Well, if Masterluc is right, that's it folks. "Very bearish breakdown" probably means 3.5k at best. If we see 2.Xk again it probably means we could head to 1k too. Crazy to think, but 1k is the most important price in Bitcoin history, it was the top of the 2013 bubble, and overall Bitcoin price stayed below 1k for most of its history.
Not getting carried away of course but seeing 1k area is a possibility, and that would be a fantastic price to buy a lot of coins IMO.

[Majormax]

Well, if Masterluc is right, that's it folks. "Very bearish breakdown" probably means 3.5k at best. If we see 2.Xk again it probably means we could head to 1k too. Crazy to think, but 1k is the most important price in Bitcoin history, it was the top of the 2013 bubble, and overall Bitcoin price stayed below 1k for most of its history.
Not getting carried away of course but seeing 1k area is a possibility, and that would be a fantastic price to buy a lot of coins IMO.

Yes..1k is a very important price.

Based on the 'next low at previous high' pattern, 1-1.5k is just possible without actually breaking the entire BTC bull market.

I felt that the bull market was broken when the price failed at 13.5k and then 10k. Both moves were exponential, and that type of failure without going to ATH, is a big red flag for any market.

[mindrust]

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/qNy2lBH5-Bearish-outcome-of-previous-ideas/

[fabiorem]

Usually the FOMO phase is during a big bullish run, that's not at all the current situation. Buying now is probably a smart move as a long term investment, I wouldn't call it a FOMO decision.

I agree.
However, how much time for a long term investment do you believe this is leading too?

I believe we are going straight to zero in less than a month, and then a vaccine will be released for coronavirus in six months (the vaccine already exists, btw). After that, the price will tank on sub-1000 levels for two years, because there will be few buyers left. It will take five years to arrive at 8k, and maybe six years to arrive at 10k.

I have buy orders in the three-digits area, and spare money left. I never go all-in because I'm not a "believer". In the two-digits area we will have the opportunity to buy dozens of coins.

Mempool already dropped to zero for a short time:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-mempool-briefly-drops-to-zero-on-blockchaincom

[Bossian]

Usually the FOMO phase is during a big bullish run, that's not at all the current situation. Buying now is probably a smart move as a long term investment, I wouldn't call it a FOMO decision.

I agree.
However, how much time for a long term investment do you believe this is leading too?

I believe we are going straight to zero in less than a month, and then a vaccine will be released for coronavirus in six months (the vaccine already exists, btw). After that, the price will tank on sub-1000 levels for two years, because there will be few buyers left. It will take five years to arrive at 8k, and maybe six years to arrive at 10k.

I have buy orders in the three-digits area, and spare money left. I never go all-in because I'm not a "believer". In the two-digits area we will have the opportunity to buy dozens of coins.

Mempool already dropped to zero for a short time:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-mempool-briefly-drops-to-zero-on-blockchaincom

I was about the post Masterluc's new prediction, thanks Mindtrust for doing so.

Coincidentally it also matches somehow sbgett prediction of a 2.5k price beginning of next year.

We will see. Regarding your post Fabio, it's hard to find the bottom, but I am "betting" on another bubble someday. That's what I am interested in convenient situation for me now as I sold 95% of my Bitcoin assets. Everything I write here is without any emotion (and that is important).

Now if Masterluc's prediction is correct, that absolutely sucks since 1.8k is a lower low compared to 3k (January 2019). The best is to sit and watch, and wait for a signal that this ugly trend started mi-December 2017 is finally over.

My intuition is that we will need to wait for 2024 or further to see a new ATH (of course it's possible we never see such thing).

[fabiorem]

My intuition is that we will need to wait for 2024 or further to see a new ATH (of course it's possible we never see such thing).

I dont believe we are going to see a new ATH.
When derivatives were applied to gold, the price tanked. But in the case of gold, there were breaks for shorting. Such breaks do not exist for bitcoin, so its quite possible the tanking will be even worse than what happened with gold. The maximum bitcoin will go will be $10k.

And when I said zero, it means something similar to what happened to the mempool, it will last for a very short time. People will say it was a "bug". But the two-digits and three-digits areas will be a reality. There will be much less buyers than we have today, specially if the virus mass panic continues for a long time.

[gentlemand]

https://www.longhash.com/en/news/3287/How-High-Leverage-in-the-Crypto-Market-Crashed-Bitcoin-to-$3,800

More on Bitmex here. One geezer in that article is asking for industry wide circuit breakers. I wonder whether that would be popular or hated. It might ruin some peoples', namely Bitmex management, fun.

[exstasie]

The 200-week MA is at $5,500 and we are currently trading near $5,300. If we close here, it might be "close enough" assuming a recovery is still coming.

I think the same. I am still bearish but could be wrong (nobody is perfect), but I would wait to buy around 6.5k instead of 5.5k.

There is very established daily pivot resistance at $6K now. The market topped out twice there on notable volume this past week.

So buy stops > $6K make sense now. Once the market breaches it, shorts and trapped sellers should start getting squeezed pretty hard.

https://www.longhash.com/en/news/3287/How-High-Leverage-in-the-Crypto-Market-Crashed-Bitcoin-to-$3,800

More on Bitmex here. One geezer in that article is asking for industry wide circuit breakers. I wonder whether that would be popular or hated. It might ruin some peoples', namely Bitmex management, fun.

Butthurt bulls are just blaming Bitmex because they need someone to blame. Everybody is just assuming that because there are liquidations on Bitmex, the spot exchanges must endlessly follow. They won't. At extremes, Bitmex will just diverge from spot prices.

On spot exchanges, actual BTC is required to sell the market down. Algos driven by Bitmex price action will eventually just shut down in these situations for lack of sell liquidity. Plus Bitmex literally only allows withdrawals once per day, so shorters also can't deposit BTC profits onto spot exchanges on demand to keep dumping the market down.

The people crying that Bitmex can bring BTC to $0 are wrong. It's that simple.

[Majormax]

My intuition is that we will need to wait for 2024 or further to see a new ATH (of course it's possible we never see such thing).

I dont believe we are going to see a new ATH.
When derivatives were applied to gold, the price tanked. But in the case of gold, there were breaks for shorting. Such breaks do not exist for bitcoin, so its quite possible the tanking will be even worse than what happened with gold. The maximum bitcoin will go will be $10k.

And when I said zero, it means something similar to what happened to the mempool, it will last for a very short time. People will say it was a "bug". But the two-digits and three-digits areas will be a reality. There will be much less buyers than we have today, specially if the virus mass panic continues for a long time.

10k is pretty much the ceiling. TA shows two failures at 10.5k, both spike exponential, both lower highs below the lower high of 13.5k. Couldn't be more bearish from a TA angle.

I'm not sure how the Zero price can come in. I would have said that 1.2k represents the largest support level. Are you talking about a technical exchange glitch ?

Another couple of years at 1-2k might be the outcome of all this.

[Wind_FURY]

Masterluc used to work a lot using triangles, well there is this one since 2017, quite a scary one.

Technically I am aware Bitcoin price went below 5k this week but for a very short time, no consolidation between 3.8k and 5k observed (yet) so I consider we are still inside the triangle.

Wonder what Masterluc would make of this.

His emphasis appears to be on the weekly 200 SMA. Since he considered the 200 SMA tests in 2015 as holding, I can only assume the important thing is closing (the weekly candle) near or above it. Wicks should be fine. The price needs to close above $5,500 and preferably would create some distance above it.

Otherwise he predicts a "very bearish breakdown" which I would more or less agree with:

Well, if Masterluc is right, that's it folks. "Very bearish breakdown" probably means 3.5k at best. If we see 2.Xk again it probably means we could head to 1k too. Crazy to think, but 1k is the most important price in Bitcoin history, it was the top of the 2013 bubble, and overall Bitcoin price stayed below 1k for most of its history.
Not getting carried away of course but seeing 1k area is a possibility, and that would be a fantastic price to buy a lot of coins[/bw IMO.

I will think about maxing out both my credit cards, sell my car, sell everything, including my body to get the money to buy more Bitcoin if it crashes to $1,000.

Maybe not "everything, including my body". Hahaha.

[JayJuanGee]

My intuition is that we will need to wait for 2024 or further to see a new ATH (of course it's possible we never see such thing).

I dont believe we are going to see a new ATH.
When derivatives were applied to gold, the price tanked. But in the case of gold, there were breaks for shorting. Such breaks do not exist for bitcoin, so its quite possible the tanking will be even worse than what happened with gold. The maximum bitcoin will go will be $10k.

And when I said zero, it means something similar to what happened to the mempool, it will last for a very short time. People will say it was a "bug". But the two-digits and three-digits areas will be a reality. There will be much less buyers than we have today, specially if the virus mass panic continues for a long time.

10k is pretty much the ceiling. TA shows two failures at 10.5k, both spike exponential, both lower highs below the lower high of 13.5k. Couldn't be more bearish from a TA angle.

I'm not sure how the Zero price can come in. I would have said that 1.2k represents the largest support level. Are you talking about a technical exchange glitch ?

Another couple of years at 1-2k might be the outcome of all this.

I would bet on the currently persuasive BTC price prediction models** long before I would be considering bearish nonsense of ceilings of $10k and/or consolidation likelihood in the sub $3k arena.. those models have way the fuck more data behind them rather than the seemingly pure nonsensical extended bear-market thesis that you are propounding. 

In other words, $10k has more likelihood of becoming the floor within the next two years rather than the ceiling.

**currently persuasive BTC price prediction models = 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential growth based on networking/metcalfe principles

[Majormax]

In other words, $10k has more likelihood of becoming the floor within the next two years rather than the ceiling.

Well. it will either become the floor or the ceiling, ( maybe both) that's TA.


Ceiling until 2021, floor after 2022 , maybe. I am inclined to think it might be longer in time, but I am always upgrading my future view as price evolves.

[Majormax]

The reason I think there could be an extended period at low levels is because the nascent bull market was broken by the shape of the move from 13.5k down to where it is now.

That might need another crypto winter to repair. Might kill off a few alts for good, though.

[fabiorem]

My intuition is that we will need to wait for 2024 or further to see a new ATH (of course it's possible we never see such thing).

I dont believe we are going to see a new ATH.
When derivatives were applied to gold, the price tanked. But in the case of gold, there were breaks for shorting. Such breaks do not exist for bitcoin, so its quite possible the tanking will be even worse than what happened with gold. The maximum bitcoin will go will be $10k.

And when I said zero, it means something similar to what happened to the mempool, it will last for a very short time. People will say it was a "bug". But the two-digits and three-digits areas will be a reality. There will be much less buyers than we have today, specially if the virus mass panic continues for a long time.

10k is pretty much the ceiling. TA shows two failures at 10.5k, both spike exponential, both lower highs below the lower high of 13.5k. Couldn't be more bearish from a TA angle.

I'm not sure how the Zero price can come in. I would have said that 1.2k represents the largest support level. Are you talking about a technical exchange glitch ?

Another couple of years at 1-2k might be the outcome of all this.

Yes, I was talking about a glitch. Recently there was a glitch where the mempool hashrate dropped to zero. Could it happen to the price as well.

I believe 10k will be the ceiling for six years from now on. It will take a long time for a recovery, and the exchanges will need to put some mechanisms in place to avoid this kind of situation again. Bitcoin dropped faster and lower than any other market in the world. Unless there is action against paper speculation, bitcoin will be in a eternal bear market, and we will never again see a ATH.

The exchanges have two choices: freedom (bear market) or collusion (bull market). Unfortunately, the community is too slow to react, thanks to the brainwashing from the hodl cult, which waits for the coming of the "bull messiah". As always, religion proves to be a hindrance for a solution. That's why I believe it will take 4-6 years for 10k.

[JayJuanGee]

In other words, $10k has more likelihood of becoming the floor within the next two years rather than the ceiling.

Well. it will either become the floor or the ceiling, ( maybe both) that's TA.


Ceiling until 2021, floor after 2022 , maybe. I am inclined to think it might be longer in time, but I am always upgrading my future view as price evolves.

Fair enough that you upgrade your views with the passage of time and the changing dynamics of the market... Surely is a good thing, and no need to get paralyzed by these matters.. by adapting your theories.

Nonetheless, it is interesting to me (and maybe a bit frustrating too) that you seem to largely discount currently persuasive BTC price prediction models...

We will see.. carrying out the sub $10k until late 2021 is a long time in bitcoin, and as I mentioned several times, I think the odds are quite highly against such an outcome, so we will see how it plays out...

I am looking forward to pointing at you in the near future (and hopefully laughing), before late 2021 to show you that $10k has become the floor...    little dumb things like that in life give me many pleasures.   

[figmentofmyass]

We will see.. carrying out the sub $10k until late 2021 is a long time in bitcoin, and as I mentioned several times, I think the odds are quite highly against such an outcome, so we will see how it plays out...

I am looking forward to pointing at you in the near future (and hopefully laughing), before late 2021 to show you that $10k has become the floor...    little dumb things like that in life give me many pleasures.  

i hope you turn out correct, but the way things are panning out, the coronavirus outbreak was the black swan none of us planned for.

the fed has now resorted to lending against stock and bond collateral. crazy stuff: https://www.ft.com/content/cf485398-689d-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3

masterluc's new target is below $2k. xxxx123abcxxxx is aiming below $1k. i may not totally agree with their doom and gloom yet, but a year and a half below $10k sure doesn't seem that crazy.