Analysis

[exstasie]

A few things.

The market was already bullish before the two previous halvings. Therefore, there could be absolutely no correlation.

This time, in 2020 the market is not bullish yet, it is at a critical point right now but it won't be bullish before we break above 10.5k and so far it has proved to be a very strong resistance. If Bitcoin price retraces to 8k area, then we are still in a bear market. And if we are still in a bear market before the halvening occurs, we cannot predict the future based on what happened during the two previous halvenings as the trend and context are different (bearish).

Last thing: every time the herd says something, doing the opposite is likely to generate profits.

Right now the herd says we will see a new ATH because of the recent golden cross + incoming halvening.

Make your own conclusions.

Until we breach the December 2018 lows, we could be in a larger bull market. Until we breach the June 2019 highs, we could be in a larger bear market. This can only be known after the fact, in hindsight.

Returning to $8K seems like an arbitrary measure. It could just be a retracement in a bull market, like this:

[fabiorem]

I dont believe there will be a ATH this year. Maybe in 2021.

This year might end with a price between 15k and 18k. And I'm being optimistic.

Experience tells me overhyped things do not work.

Expectations over the halving are too high. They remind me of futures and BAKKT hypes.

[exstasie]

Experience tells me overhyped things do not work.

Expectations over the halving are too high. They remind me of futures and BAKKT hypes.

Bears keep saying that, but I keep seeing the opposite: people saying the halving is already priced in, the stock-to-flow model is dead, etc. I would say sentiment is mixed at best.

The market doesn't feel greedy, not yet anyway. The Fear & Greed Index unsurprisingly stands at 44 (Fear). We've got a long ways to go before the market is over-hyped or exuberant. https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

[windjc]

I dont believe there will be a ATH this year. Maybe in 2021.

This year might end with a price between 15k and 18k. And I'm being optimistic.

Experience tells me overhyped things do not work.

Expectations over the halving are too high. They remind me of futures and BAKKT hypes.

Let me guess. You joined crypto after 2015? Right?

[STT]

Nah he is right, every halvening is less important then the previous.   Any greater movement will come in the year or two after the block reward is halved and thats happened in the past.    The rise before the event is anticipation but the actual effect of the block reward falling is in action only afterwards and increases over time by reducing supply of new BTC but the alteration we make in 2020 is far less then previous changes , its a diminishing effect.

[exstasie]

Nah he is right, every halvening is less important then the previous.

LOL, there has only been 2 halvings so far. With this small of a data set, we're speaking in the realm of coincidence, not reliable patterns.

In hindsight, we may find this entire first decade of price discovery was essentially noise before the vertical swing of an S-curve. I would be weary of assuming the past cycles will automatically extrapolate into the future. The trend could reverse, or the magnitude could increase (or decrease) even by orders of magnitude.



The people planning to sell at $60K-$100K because they insist BTC must follow the past logarithmic trend (with diminishing gains) may end up selling way too early.

[gentlemand]

Nah he is right, every halvening is less important then the previous.   Any greater movement will come in the year or two after the block reward is halved and thats happened in the past.    The rise before the event is anticipation but the actual effect of the block reward falling is in action only afterwards and increases over time by reducing supply of new BTC but the alteration we make in 2020 is far less then previous changes , its a diminishing effect.

I agree with the principle but I think this one will be the biggest of all and it'll start to roll gently downhill in impact from the next one in 2024 onwards.

It's happening just as more building blocks are falling into place, it's being taken seriously by more people than ever and in a way it hasn't up until recent times and the inflation rate will be lower than the average fiat currency just as it steps up into a new phase of legitimacy.

At the same time it's going to properly dawn on people that there really aren't that many fresh ones left to arrive. That was a factor barely worth considering with both previous halvings. There were still millions of coins to come. Now it's just over 10% for the rest of eternity.

That's a variety of factors aligning around this one that are unique and will never be repeated.

Guess we'll see soon enough.

Expectations over the halving are too high. They remind me of futures and BAKKT hypes.

Anyone who equates a major shift in the fundamentals of the whole thing with a couple of bits of tinsel in one jurisdiction isn't thinking hard enough.

[kellrobinson]

Nah he is right, every halvening is less important then the previous.

LOL, there has only been 2 halvings so far. With this small of a data set, we're speaking in the realm of coincidence, not reliable patterns.

In hindsight, we may find this entire first decade of price discovery was essentially noise before the vertical swing of an S-curve. I would be weary of assuming the past cycles will automatically extrapolate into the future. The trend could reverse, or the magnitude could increase (or decrease) even by orders of magnitude.



The people planning to sell at $60K-$100K because they insist BTC must follow the past logarithmic trend (with diminishing gains) may end up selling way too early.

You are talking about the logistic function, a model of growth which starts as purely exponential and then transitions to a saturation regime.
The sigmoid shape appears when you draw the logistic function on a linear graph.  A log graph of the logistic function doesn't have an s-shape.
The early growth appears as an upward curve on a linear chart (like the one you posted), but looks like a straight line on a log chart.

When saturation effects begin damping the growth rate, the linear graph exhibits an inflection point (as on your graph).
On a log graph, the transition to a saturation regime appears as a downward bend from the inital straight-line exponential growth, subsequently approaching a horizontal asymptote.
The logistic function can be expressed as y=1/(1+e^-x), and here is the log graph
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=y%3Dlog%281%2F%281%2Be%5E%28-x%29%29%29%2C-10%3C%3Dx%3C%3D10%2C-10%3C%3Dy%3C%3D1

TLDR:  we won't see a sigmoid on the log chart of bitcoin's exchange rate history

[marcus_of_augustus]

Last thing: every time the herd says something, doing the opposite is likely to generate profits.

Right now the herd says we will see a new ATH because of the recent golden cross + incoming halvening.

Make your own conclusions.

I conclude that the herd is wrong also .... btc is going to bull run much further than 2017 or 2013 low:high ratio, and more like 2011 vertical craziness ... begins 3-6 months after the halving peaking around 500k in 1-2Q 2021.

[exstasie]

You are talking about the logistic function, a model of growth which starts as purely exponential and then transitions to a saturation regime.
The sigmoid shape appears when you draw the logistic function on a linear graph.  A log graph of the logistic function doesn't have an s-shape.

Sorry if there was confusion, but I was referring to this S-curve, as it relates to the adoption of Bitcoin: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_life_cycle#S-curve

The bell curve probably conveys the idea even better. I contend we have yet to "jump the chasm":



Thus, the strongest wave of adoption is yet to come. Extrapolations based on the past may be unduly limiting.

[kellrobinson]

Yeah, I didn't look close enough at your image.  The vertical axis is clearly labeled erf(x)
The error function is defined as the integral of e^-x^2, i.e. the gaussian normal distribution or "bell curve."
The logistic function is the hyperbolic tangent, shifted and scaled to put the asymptotes at 0 and 1.
They both have sigmoidal shapes.

Just dropping this for anybody who's interested in sigmoid functions in general.  It compares the error function and the logistic function (labeled "sigmoid" in the figure caption).
For our purposes, I'm not sure there's much practical difference.
But I don't think bitcoin's headed for a quantum leap of adoption and price.  It think it's headed for another ordinary bubble, if anything.  Nothing to see here, folks.  
If you filter out the bubbles, the long term trend will be steadily monotonic.
That's just my opinion.

[El duderino_]

Last thing: every time the herd says something, doing the opposite is likely to generate profits.

Right now the herd says we will see a new ATH because of the recent golden cross + incoming halvening.

Make your own conclusions.

I conclude that the herd is wrong also .... btc is going to bull run much further than 2017 or 2013 low:high ratio, and more like 2011 vertical craziness ... begins 3-6 months after the halving peaking around 500k in 1-2Q 2021.

A nice noon and a bullish HOPIUM post, what more can the dude ask for

[STT]

In hindsight, we may find this entire first decade of price discovery was essentially noise

The halvening deal is we come away from the Satoshi's block reward and it leaves the rails and does its own thing.    Its amazing someone was able to plan out something so far ahead and it actually worked to any extent.   I think of it opposite to noise though its a new sector, etc.   Really volatile but we were on that set plan where as more in future its going to just rely on free market supply and demand and eventually no block reward hence I say it matters less every time by his design that is.
    Really the main thing that is for sure is tried and tested dynamic to all speculative markets which is buy the rumor sell the news.   Its rumor because halvening hasn't arrived yet and after it happens, it is the news ie. its happened and there is some pressure from speculative sells.   Doesnt always have to do that but its one of the most repeated cycles that happens I think.

[Majormax]

Nah he is right, every halvening is less important then the previous.

LOL, there has only been 2 halvings so far. With this small of a data set, we're speaking in the realm of coincidence, not reliable patterns.

In hindsight, we may find this entire first decade of price discovery was essentially noise before the vertical swing of an S-curve. I would be weary of assuming the past cycles will automatically extrapolate into the future. The trend could reverse, or the magnitude could increase (or decrease) even by orders of magnitude.



The people planning to sell at $60K-$100K because they insist BTC must follow the past logarithmic trend (with diminishing gains) may end up selling way too early.

That is possible, but it is more logical to assume that the amplitude of price swings will decline as market cap. increases. It can be seen from the long term price chart that this is actually happening. As market cap increaes in weight, it requires a greater and greater weight of Fiat to move price by a given %. The bottleneck will always be in the Fiat conversion.

Past cycles here are a relatively poor guide to the future now, if only because there is relatively little data on long term trends (having not got to the 'long term' yet).

My own gut feeling is that the strong overhead resistances of 10400 and 13500 will hold for an extended period. 7000 is reasonable support. Going to be a lot more boring than the 'herd' would like. If there is a new ATH, it may not be until 2021-2.

[exstasie]

In hindsight, we may find this entire first decade of price discovery was essentially noise before the vertical swing of an S-curve. I would be weary of assuming the past cycles will automatically extrapolate into the future. The trend could reverse, or the magnitude could increase (or decrease) even by orders of magnitude.



The people planning to sell at $60K-$100K because they insist BTC must follow the past logarithmic trend (with diminishing gains) may end up selling way too early.

That is possible, but it is more logical to assume that the amplitude of price swings will decline as market cap. increases. It can be seen from the long term price chart that this is actually happening.

You're just extrapolating the past price trend into the future. Extrapolations are inherently unreliable.

The bottleneck will always be in the Fiat conversion.

Something that's very difficult to predict is the effect of supply drying up. The price can rocket higher on the basis of an extremely thin ask side as holders refuse to sell. Demand is not the only factor.

Bears always assert that the market will require increasingly and unreasonable amounts of capital to keep moving higher, but that's not necessarily true, depending on supply.

[Biodom]

Nah he is right, every halvening is less important then the previous.

LOL, there has only been 2 halvings so far. With this small of a data set, we're speaking in the realm of coincidence, not reliable patterns.

In hindsight, we may find this entire first decade of price discovery was essentially noise before the vertical swing of an S-curve. I would be weary of assuming the past cycles will automatically extrapolate into the future. The trend could reverse, or the magnitude could increase (or decrease) even by orders of magnitude.



The people planning to sell at $60K-$100K because they insist BTC must follow the past logarithmic trend (with diminishing gains) may end up selling way too early.

That is possible, but it is more logical to assume that the amplitude of price swings will decline as market cap. increases. It can be seen from the long term price chart that this is actually happening. As market cap increaes in weight, it requires a greater and greater weight of Fiat to move price by a given %. The bottleneck will always be in the Fiat conversion.

Past cycles here are a relatively poor guide to the future now, if only because there is relatively little data on long term trends (having not got to the 'long term' yet).

My own gut feeling is that the strong overhead resistances of 10400 and 13500 will hold for an extended period. 7000 is reasonable support. Going to be a lot more boring than the 'herd' would like. If there is a new ATH, it may not be until 2021-2.

I understand this reasoning, but, interestingly enough, moves DOWN changed only marginally from cycle to cycle (-94%, -85% and -84%).
Why, if this is the case, the moves UP shall dissipate? They might not, at least not for the next one.

[kellrobinson]

Quoting masterluc/PentarhUdi's famous tradingview post of Dec 2, 2018

As the technology being adopted - it loosing its blowing popularity and leaving straight-style log trend while continue to grow in SQRT-style trend (green in picture) more smoothly. I had difficulties to draw this green trend using regular tools, so it is not really accurate.



Here's a SQRT-style trend.
Will honey badger stay in the chute; will she break red, will she break green?

[marcus_of_augustus]

I see these SQRT trend lines being used more now, any rational basis for that beyond pretty coloured line-fitting?

Is there some new SQRT adoption curve dynamics being discovered here? And what is the longer term resolution of that trend, SQRT for ever and ever?

Sigmoids have a basis in technology adoption theory that is plainly logical and have defined beginning and end points that make sense. SQRT can only be a temporary trend at best, although may be applicable for years, decades even maybe. The problem for sigmoids and bitcoin right now is the final end point is still a moving target, 100% monetary adoption seemingly incomprehensible, so guesses at proportions of total monetary wealth that may finally be stored in bitcoin being the feeble best estimates for what shape a sigmoid might ultimately take.

[exstasie]

I see these SQRT trend lines being used more now, any rational basis for that beyond pretty coloured line-fitting?

Is there some new SQRT adoption curve dynamics being discovered here?

I don't think so. It's just curve fitting. The bottom SQRT trend line has lots of "touches" so maybe it serves as a better basis for extrapolation? The upper trend line only has two touches, however.

[drays]

As far as I know, this SQRT trend was popularized by Masterluk lately (he saw that somewhere and liked it a lot), based on a pure intuition and inspired by the fact that the Bitcoin inflation decreases in SQRT style. Basically that is just a wild guess, with no rational ground behind it.