Analysis

[drays]

... I also understand that there are a lot of participants in this thread worshiping the largely non-substantiated bearish boloney that Masterluc has been spouting out in recent years, so perhaps I have been a bit more hostile to those kinds of sentiments that I have been witnessing in this thread.

Sorry for this small intervention in your discussion, but I just wanted to ask where did you see Masterluc "spouting" his "bearish boloney" "recent years"?
I am far from being someone who could "worship" anything, but as far as I know Masterluc, he is a long-term perma-bull actually. Even when he provides some mid/short-term bearish prediction, there is always some bullish context in his writings - either direct, like here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iNSP9waV-Historical-IV-almost-completed/:

"I remind, red will just delay big bull run by one-two years in my vision. While green one may start bull run in few months. "

, or indirect, like in many posts in VK he had done during the 2018 bear market (which I would not quote, due to them being in Russian).

One mid-term bearish prediction from him, was the latest "triangle" scenario, when he said something like "we will most probably revisit the weekly 200-MA one more time, before commencing bull market", at the time when this scenario seemed crazy practically to everyone (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.msg53048197#msg53048197, see the public reaction). However in fact that scenario played perfectly, to the surprise of most people here, including myself. After Bitcoin closed weekly candle below weekly 200MA, he had something like a bit of panic, but who didn't? Masterluc is known for his long-term scenarios, as to the short-term ones, he did a lot of mistakes there, and so they should be considered with a big grain of salt.

Again, I personally find it hard to see unsubstantiated bearish output from Masterluc. Even the one which seemed unsubstantiated at the time, was substantiated perfectly by the time and following events.

I could give less than two shits about what Masterluc says, but he gets quoted on a regular basis as some kind of diety on numerous occasions, and hopefully, not too many people are tricked into either waiting for lower priced BTC or failing to engage in proper BTC accumulation strategies such as DCAing, buying on dips and HODL merely because they believe that Masterluc is overall bullish even when he is frequently presenting himself as short term bearish while often being wrong in those kinds of assertions.

So, go ahead if you like, and attribute sorcery status to Masterluc, if that is what you are doing, and frequently, I would suggest that lots of people could get into trouble when they are attributing too much value to short term noise and short term calls of "down before up" and all that other bullshit, when instead they should be engaging in more prudent long term strategies that involve DCA, buying on the mf dips and HODL.

I have absolutely no intention to attribute any deity or sorcery status to a man. This thread is dedicated to Masterluc analysis, so I thought it would be fair to expect an information posted in this thread, to be factually correct regarding the views Masterluc expressed. That's it.

Thinking big or thinking small, engaging into prudent strategies or just trading on a whim - it is a personal choice of a trader; I believe it is based on a personality type more than on anything else, and it has nothing to do with what Masterluc tells or "predicts". For me personally, he was a calming voice during 2018 bear market, with his steady confidence on the values Bitcoin offers. Not sure whether he influenced my decisions, but he definitely helped me to feel better about overall situation and to keep positive outlook, which I value much higher than possible profits I could have made at the time.

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[Bimmerhead]

I could give less than two shits about what Masterluc says,

Then I have to ask, why are you here on a thread that he started, and that is devoted to his prognostications?

[Globb0]

You sad fanbois. He is long gone from this forum. Once upon a time it was different.

But get with reality.

You want to pay homage build a shrine or something.

[JayJuanGee]

I could give less than two shits about what Masterluc says,

Then I have to ask, why are you here on a thread that he started, and that is devoted to his prognostications?

I am here to respond to whatever issues I might deem worthy of response at the time that I choose to respond (or not to respond, if I so choose).  I see Masterluc quoted in several places on the forum, including references to this thread, which drew my attention to this thread.

Hey, if anyone, whether masterluc, or someone else gives some plausible explanations that reasonably describe current BTC price dynamics, and they back up any predictions that they make, whether bearish or bullish, then I have no problem also giving some weight to those kinds of BTC price direction predictions and BTC price dynamics descriptions.

Frequently, there can be a problem with the assignment of sorcery status or too much deference to anyone, whether that sorcery status assignment is self-proclaimed or through others, and whether it is to masterluc or some other person, and for the most part, no one knows where the fuck the BTC price is going to go in the short-term beyond the assignment of probabilities, and attempts to account for as many factors that they are able to possibly know, including human behavior that might be beyond any given formula, and surely some scenarios are going to be more likely than others, and frequently part of the problem of BTC price prediction and description comes when too much weight is given to one direction or another which might involve giving too much weight to certain factors including giving too much weight to lines drawn on charts, whether those lines are adequately accounting for the various factors.

So, sure there can be some value to charts, predictions and descriptions of BTC price directions, but sometimes the plotting out of these kinds of matters cause others to assignment too much weight to squiggly lines on charts based on the fact that they see them drawn on the charts, and sometimes those lines have been way the fuck inadequately explained which masterluc has been frequently guilty of vague as fuck explanations that are given way the fuck too much weight.

[drays]

You sad fanbois. He is long gone from this forum. Once upon a time it was different.

But get with reality.

You want to pay homage build a shrine or something.

What a pointless comment. Surprising to see it from you, Globb0; not sure whom you direct it to, I had an impression you are better at understanding a written text.
Maybe its my English. Mea culpa

[Globb0]

Several people came with good analysis and were chased out by this you are not worthy of Luc's thread. Where is he?

He just posts, maybe if its even him? somewhere else in russian about pool shots and it could be bearish or bullish and so on. With everyone guessing the translation.

Let him come here and I will happily shut up.

Thanks for the nice comment I apologise to disappoint you.

[exstasie]

You sad fanbois. He is long gone from this forum. Once upon a time it was different.

But get with reality.

You want to pay homage build a shrine or something.

What's the problem? He has made some legendary calls over the years. In fact, he's the one who inspired me to become a technical analyst in the first place. I think David Ward (dmwardjr) has said something similar too.

Nothing wrong with paying attention to what he has to say!

He just posts, maybe if its even him? somewhere else in russian about pool shots and it could be bearish or bullish and so on. With everyone guessing the translation.

He posts in English on Tradingview. I don't care about the language anyway. I just want to see his charts and what levels he is watching.

I still follow a bunch of traders from the old days, as well as newer guys. I need alternative ideas to challenge my biases. The more ideas the better.

[drays]

Several people came with good analysis and were chased out by this you are not worthy of Luc's thread. Where is he?

He just posts, maybe if its even him? somewhere else in russian about pool shots and it could be bearish or bullish and so on. With everyone guessing the translation.

Let him come here and I will happily shut up.

Really..? I have listened about Masterluc's cult status, but have never observed it myself. Probably at the time I really began following BTC price movements, his glory have faded a bit.
In fact, I have seen a lot of self-irony from him, he doesn't behave like a cult-person even a little bit.

For me he is an interesting well-educated guy with unique sense of humor and erudition (often disguised behind typical Russian mat-based informal speaking), hiding behind bitcoin_vanga name, and funny Janet Yellen avatar, which together is quite self-ironic. I enjoy reading specifically his rare Russian posts; when he posts in English, the whole charm fades, and only the charts (the ones exstasie is about ), remain. I don't think he will return to this forum. He seems to be really lazy guy, too lazy to post often and discuss things in English, imho.

[chunglam]

New comments from Masterluc - https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iNSP9waV-Historical-IV-almost-completed/
May 12 : Happy halvening and as I said earlier, price doesn't give a fuck about this event.
May 14 : Updating aka Cpt Obvious. Short-term bullish trend. Breaking this trend down will likely send price back to 5500 support. In other side if price following this trend break up long term descending trend line, we will likely see new ATH.

[exstasie]

May 14 : Updating aka Cpt Obvious. Short-term bullish trend. Breaking this trend down will likely send price back to 5500 support. In other side if price following this trend break up long term descending trend line, we will likely see new ATH.

Thanks for the update. My trend line is actually closer to $11,300 but I'm not sure it matters. What I'm primarily concerned about is the yearly pivot at $10.5K. If the market breaks that to the upside it should be meaningful.

I agree with him, this is a potentially huge inflection point. If bears maintain the yearly downtrend, then this triangle idea remains intact. Typical Wave (e) target is $5,700.

This is a tense situation. The price action looks bullish, the OBV looks bearish, the stock market is weak. We probably have a very interesting week ahead of us.

[Majormax]

May 14 : Updating aka Cpt Obvious. Short-term bullish trend. Breaking this trend down will likely send price back to 5500 support. In other side if price following this trend break up long term descending trend line, we will likely see new ATH.

Thanks for the update. My trend line is actually closer to $11,300 but I'm not sure it matters. What I'm primarily concerned about is the yearly pivot at $10.5K. If the market breaks that to the upside it should be meaningful.

I agree with him, this is a potentially huge inflection point. If bears maintain the yearly downtrend, then this triangle idea remains intact. Typical Wave (e) target is $5,700.

This is a tense situation. The price action looks bullish, the OBV looks bearish, the stock market is weak. We probably have a very interesting week ahead of us.

Yes,  10500 is one of the most important levels from a number of points of view (many previous post about this). I only look at simple volume/work areas, and not wave analysis.

A break of 10.5k might take a lot of work, but would be a great milestone if it happens.

On the bear side, the run-up from 3800 could accommodate a retrace to 6400, which is another busy area. ..Interesting that you have 5700 as target for completion of a downwave. I would have thought that getting as far as that was signalling a downtrend resumption.

[exstasie]

Thanks for the update. My trend line is actually closer to $11,300 but I'm not sure it matters. What I'm primarily concerned about is the yearly pivot at $10.5K. If the market breaks that to the upside it should be meaningful.

I agree with him, this is a potentially huge inflection point. If bears maintain the yearly downtrend, then this triangle idea remains intact. Typical Wave (e) target is $5,700.

This is a tense situation. The price action looks bullish, the OBV looks bearish, the stock market is weak. We probably have a very interesting week ahead of us.

Yes,  10500 is one of the most important levels from a number of points of view (many previous post about this). I only look at simple volume/work areas, and not wave analysis.

A break of 10.5k might take a lot of work, but would be a great milestone if it happens.

On the bear side, the run-up from 3800 could accommodate a retrace to 6400, which is another busy area. ..Interesting that you have 5700 as target for completion of a downwave. I would have thought that getting as far as that was signalling a downtrend resumption.

$5,700 is just an area of interest. I wouldn't necessarily bet the farm on it.

My theory is that we already are in a multi-year sideways bear market (December 2017-present). So a resumption of the downtrend just means staying inside the contracting long term range and not breaking out yet.

I like $5,700 for multiple reasons though. One, a failure here suggests a months-long re-accumulation phase, which makes the 200-week MA (currently $5,800) very attractive as a target. As we saw in March, BTC loves to make its bearish extremes early, then form higher lows. So speculating on a very short-lived wick below the 200-week MA may not be a bad bet. If we get there, it's a strong buy.

Second, a failure here gives support to that multi-year triangle idea. The most common retracement level for a Wave (e) is 70%. So this is more of an EW guideline than something particular to BTC, but I will say it's a very common reversal level in BTC too. The 0.705 level is known under another system as the "optimal trade entry (OTE)" for good reason.

Third, in my experience, people who are currently bearish will buy the dumps too early. The market is heavily leveraged long (Bitmex longs currently paying 0.0305% on swap interest, Bitfinex longs up almost 30% in a few days). The pressure from margin longs into low bid side liquidity is often underestimated during dumps. The March crash was a reminder of that. Lots of people will be aiming at the $6,200-$7,200 zone. There's a decent chance these early bulls will get washed out. Be careful catching the knife!

[STT]

I dont see 5500 as likely but forming a lower high here is quite possible and that leads to a pullback of some size we don't know yet.   I didn't see it as a bigger trend like he has drawn it but that's possibly still valid and just speaking generally, we still got to work through volume and prior sells from 2019.   That's part of why I think 2020 is a revision year not a rocket launch, not considering any of the news for or against but just on volume and prior action it seems to go that way.   Got to clear the snow drift before you can run down the road, despite it being summer most places :p

[chunglam]

MasterLuc May 17 : Just dropping some stones into short term bearish pan. Hidden bearish divergences on daily chart.

[exstasie]

MasterLuc May 17 : Just dropping some stones into short term bearish pan. Hidden bearish divergences on daily chart.

On the other hand, the weekly close was a bullish engulfing. Given the quick rebound to $10K, I'm not putting too much faith into that bearish divergence until we break last week's lows, or at least the daily lower BB (currently $8,330).

[Wekkel]

MasterLuc May 17 : Just dropping some stones into short term bearish pan. Hidden bearish divergences on daily chart.

On the other hand, the weekly close was a bullish engulfing. Given the quick rebound to $10K, I'm not putting too much faith into that bearish divergence until we break last week's lows, or at least the daily lower BB (currently $8,330).

I also think the divergence is weak. But a breakdown downwards would not be unexpected. For now, we're still in limbo.

[Bossian]

Latest update https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iNSP9waV-Historical-IV-almost-completed/
I like this trader, seems like very level-headed which is the best quality in the field.

[Bossian]

A key price for the bulls is 9.4k. If I was a bull I would be praying Bitcoin price can close this month at 9.4k (or over), but as the above chart shows, the chances of this happening are quite slim.

Still confident we go down from there, only fear I have at the moment is there seems to be (almost) a consensus among traders that Bitcoin price will go down for the whole year, and I hope the whales won't play with us and wreck our stop losses  

[Millionero]

a consensus among traders that Bitcoin price will go down for the whole year

Bullish!

[exstasie]

a consensus among traders that Bitcoin price will go down for the whole year

Bullish!

Yep, bullish if true.

There are however plenty of bulls in my feed, more than a few of whom are planning out the next parabolic bubble. Swap interest has remained positive for quite a while so Bitmex traders aren't heavily shorting. Bitfinex BTC short levels are low and still dropping, longs dropping too though. ETH longs are very high.

Sentiment seems mixed at best, and probably actually bullish.