Analysis

[Wexlike]

So previous two idea trends failed. One was too steep and price crashed its bottom. And the second was too flat so price pierced its top line. So lets get the third variant, something in a middle and try call the top!

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/zg0MPXUC-Triying-yet-another-trend/

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[JayJuanGee]

So previous two idea trends failed. One was too steep and price crashed its bottom. And the second was too flat so price pierced its top line. So lets get the third variant, something in a middle and try call the top!

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/zg0MPXUC-Triying-yet-another-trend/

This sounds really legitimate.

If he keeps trying sooner or later he is going to be correct, and then we can agree about how much of a smartie he happens to be...

[dragonvslinux]

Update from Masterluc: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/HNutyDX7-Short-term-resistance/

Bitcoin approaches short term strong resistance: upper trend line and upper BB border. I completely not sure it can beat them both from 1st try on weekly candle.

He's anticipating a sharp pullback off the weekly upper BB, down to the lower bound of his channel, which is currently in the $10.5K area and rising:

Completely possible, I prefer the $12k area better for a pull-back personally though.
We don't need a 35% pull-back, 25% is more than sufficient and keep bouncing off the 21 Week MA imo.

[exstasie]

This sounds really legitimate.

If he keeps trying sooner or later he is going to be correct, and then we can agree about how much of a smartie he happens to be...

Of all the threads on this forum, this is not the one for annoying perma bull gloating. Masterluc has earned that much. Why do you feel the need to come here just to insult him? Many of us obviously value his contributions, even if you don't.

He is just offering ideas, possibilities. Not guarantees or anything of that sort. That is the world traders exist in. I'd have thought you would understand that by now, but alas, you don't.

[JayJuanGee]

This sounds really legitimate.

If he keeps trying sooner or later he is going to be correct, and then we can agree about how much of a smartie he happens to be...

Of all the threads on this forum, this is not the one for annoying perma bull gloating. Masterluc has earned that much. Why do you feel the need to come here just to insult him? Many of us obviously value his contributions, even if you don't.

He has not earned shit... I have seen his various contributions through the years.. and you are suggesting that he deserves some kind of higher platform than comments from other members... I don't ever recall ever having a personal interaction with him, so I may as well make fun of some of the ideas or the worshipers, no?

You guys can worship his presentations all that you like but does NOT mean that I am out-of-line in any kind of way with the contents or the direction of my post(s).. whether the latest post or other posts...

Last time I checked this thread was open to all forum members... No?... Maybe my post is directed towards worshipers rather than Masterluc himself, anyhow?  Seems to have been.

He is just offering ideas, possibilities.

No problem.  I am offering ideas too by poo pooing the worshiping of ideas....

Hopefully, you understand the idea that sooner or later BTC prices are going to correct and if someone keeps proclaiming that they are going to correct at some point, then sooner or later that someone is going to end up being correct?  Perhaps you understand that?

Not guarantees or anything of that sort. That is the world traders exist in. I'd have thought you would understand that by now, but alas, you don't.

I am thinking that you are coming off as a bit too sensitive in terms of how you are taking my mocking message.. maybe I a wearing on you... because I have been criticizing your down inclinations, exstasie, for quite some time, and even explaining my rationale for doing so on a fairly regular basis, so that surely would have a substantive component to it, no?.... but you roll with sensitivities and getting caught up on persons rather than ideas, and you want to take matters personally (defending Masterluc or the worshipers), that seems to be your choice, unless you cannot help yourself in terms of having to attempt to turn matters personal when they need not be?

[cAPSLOCK]

Update from Masterluc: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/HNutyDX7-Short-term-resistance/

Bitcoin approaches short term strong resistance: upper trend line and upper BB border. I completely not sure it can beat them both from 1st try on weekly candle.

He's anticipating a sharp pullback off the weekly upper BB, down to the lower bound of his channel, which is currently in the $10.5K area and rising:

Completely possible, I prefer the $12k area better for a pull-back personally though.
We don't need a 35% pull-back, 25% is more than sufficient and keep bouncing off the 21 Week MA imo.

I came here to post basically the same thing.

The way I would put it, is a pullback to that channel low would be perfectly acceptable  as would be the 12k area and the MA.

That said... I also think we might breakout before too much of a pullback as well.  The way it is consolidating here now at least supports that idea.

[drays]

No problem.  I am offering ideas too by poo pooing the worshiping of ideas....

I noticed you're poo pooing here.

I haven't noticed any worshipers here though.


In my view, there is a kind of envy some people feel - when seeing people are paying more attention to someone's analysis. The need to poo poo appears.

That's how I see it, JayJuanGee. Sorry. Maybe that's not the case (I hope so), but that's the impression your posts on this thread create.

[JayJuanGee]

No problem.  I am offering ideas too by poo pooing the worshiping of ideas....

I noticed you're poo pooing here.

I haven't noticed any worshipers here though.


In my view, there is a kind of envy some people feel - when seeing people are paying more attention to someone's analysis. The need to poo poo appears.

That's how I see it, JayJuanGee. Sorry. Maybe that's not the case (I hope so), but that's the impression your posts on this thread create.

Why would there be envy?

If someone keeps predicting down and getting it wrong and I am merely pointing out such a thing.  You can read envy all that you like.  It's not there.

Sure, I tend to get worried about many people failing and refusing to adequately prepare for up, and the down predictions will frequently contribute to such lack of preparations... especially when such down predictions are given more weight than they deserve, and I am not even necessarily saying that Masterluc has been attempting to attract such over reliance, but sometimes his followers will give more weight to his various ongoing down squiggly lines than they deserve (and so it can be nice to see when  down predictions do not happen, but they continue to be made).  Yes, down reliance can end up running  into a lack of UP preparations that I have mentioned.

Surely, I have explained that in several other posts that I have made (and sometimes no explanation is needed in order to poo poo squiggly lines), including explanation that I have made in other back and forth interactions that I have had with exstasie in other threads.

[Millionero]

The Analysis thread welcomes Jay's navel-gazing, triumphalist logorrhoea.

[JayJuanGee]

The Analysis thread welcomes Jay's navel-gazing, triumphalist logorrhoea.

You are not coming off as very welcoming.

 

[Millionero]

My bad.

[Wekkel]

We need more (bullish) charts 

[Andergriff]

From MasterLuc on TV

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/gaVt2Z5L-Price-reverse-extrapolation-with-MACD/

For those who ask loud bullish predictions. I don't post great bullish charts with daring targets, as TV has a lot of this. I post side views that could be interesting. So.

This is what I meant few weeks ago when said "I can't ignore weekly MACD".

For first, there was a bullish hook.
For the second there is some heuristical deduction:

1. Bitcoin is bullish? Obviously yes. Candles are above BB.
2. Can the bullish Bitcoin have bearish divergence on weekly MACD? No way.
3. So if price reverse now, there would be bearish divergence on macd as macd local top would be lower than ATH top. Okay.
4. So can the price reverse now? No way.
5. So where MACD must reverse to fit into correct Bitcoin bullish picture? Well above macd ATH . See in PIC.

And now, extrapolate candles to match such macd to measure approximate location of next local top. It must be well above ATH . Well above $30k.

I saw similar picture when Bitcoin was on the way to brake its first historical top at $31.

[exstasie]

From MasterLuc on TV

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/gaVt2Z5L-Price-reverse-extrapolation-with-MACD/

He posted it right before the dump.

I'm not sure I agree with his reasoning either. I would only look to the MACD histogram for divergences, not the EMAs. Plus the fast EMA has already broken the potential bearish divergence anyway.

Bitcoin will shake the trees when it wants to, that's the bottom line. An intraday double top off $19.5K (and the first lower low on the daily chart since September) seems as good of a time as any.

[marcus_of_augustus]

From MasterLuc on TV

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/gaVt2Z5L-Price-reverse-extrapolation-with-MACD/

He posted it right before the dump.

I'm not sure I agree with his reasoning either. I would only look to the MACD histogram for divergences, not the EMAs. Plus the fast EMA has already broken the potential bearish divergence anyway.

Bitcoin will shake the trees when it wants to, that's the bottom line. An intraday double top off $19.5K (and the first lower low on the daily chart since September) seems as good of a time as any.

... yet here we are back at new ATH ... permabears always get seriously rekt on btc bullruns, they are vicious.

... masterluc has been riding them longer than most, above $30k sounds about right to me too.

[exstasie]

He posted it right before the dump.

I'm not sure I agree with his reasoning either. I would only look to the MACD histogram for divergences, not the EMAs. Plus the fast EMA has already broken the potential bearish divergence anyway.

Bitcoin will shake the trees when it wants to, that's the bottom line. An intraday double top off $19.5K (and the first lower low on the daily chart since September) seems as good of a time as any.

... yet here we are back at new ATH ... permabears always get seriously rekt on btc bullruns, they are vicious.

... masterluc has been riding them longer than most, above $30k sounds about right to me too.

He also tried to call the top twice on the way here.

He knows as well as anybody that Bitcoin's classic shakeouts cannot be accurately predicted before the fact.

His theory that BTCUSD can't correct on the weekly because of potential bearish MACD divergence doesn't actually apply. Both the histogram and signal lines are above their respective June 2019 peaks, so there is no potential divergence to speak of.

Like I said, Bitcoin will shake the trees when it wants to. Maybe we see $30K first. Maybe.

[marcus_of_augustus]

He also tried to call the top twice on the way here.

Like I said, Bitcoin will shake the trees when it wants to. Maybe we see $30K first. Maybe.

He's just making sure there's people in the trees when it's gets shaken ... if he was always right there would be nobody to take the other side and ... how can a trader make money like that?

[boumalo]

Who is still poor because he did not believe ?

[cAPSLOCK]

I am "fixing" this with this post... but knowing MasterLuc and his particular favorite imagery he would have liked to see this.

[kellrobinson]

I'll just drop this here.  Bitcoin's entire price history is a classic story of step response overshoot.  You don't need much imagination to picture what's coming.
MtGox and Bitstamp daily close, concatenated.  Yellow:  genesis and halvings.  Top step:  $75k
Credit goes to Masterluc for the idea of the square root trend.