Analysis

[Wind_FURY]

I think Masterluc and Bitcoin Vanga and PentarhUdi are different names that one person uses.  He owns the Bitcoin Beavers Telegram channel.  His latest post is pretty bearish.
Клaccичecкaя зигзaг кoppeкция в фopмe гoлoвa-плeчи мoжeт зaнять 1 гoд и имeть минимyм 50-60к. Уpoвни кoppeкции xинтyют фибoнaчи ypoвни.

Translation:  The classic zigzag correction in the head-and-shoulders pattern can take 1 year and cost at least 50-60k.  The correction levels hint at Fibonacci levels.

If you want to see the chart he posted, search for Bitcoin Beavers on Telegram.

I was in Masterluc's Telegram channel before I lost my phone. I could have joined again, but I never felt the need. But I think Masterluc is probably a Four-Year-Cycle believer because of his long experience in Bitcoin?

If Bitcoin doesn't surge to another All Time High in January/February, then it's a bear market.
 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

--Snip--

Are you (JayJuanGee) mad again?

 

I think Masterluc and Bitcoin Vanga and PentarhUdi are different names that one person uses.  He owns the Bitcoin Beavers Telegram channel.  His latest post is pretty bearish.

Клaccичecкaя зигзaг кoppeкция в фopмe гoлoвa-плeчи мoжeт зaнять 1 гoд и имeть минимyм 50-60к. Уpoвни кoppeкции xинтyют фибoнaчи ypoвни.

Translation:  The classic zigzag correction in the head-and-shoulders pattern can take 1 year and cost at least 50-60k.  The correction levels hint at Fibonacci levels.

If you want to see the chart he posted, search for Bitcoin Beavers on Telegram.

I was in Masterluc's Telegram channel before I lost my phone. I could have joined again, but I never felt the need. But I think Masterluc is probably a Four-Year-Cycle believer because of his long experience in Bitcoin?

If Bitcoin doesn't surge to another All Time High in January/February, then it's a bear market.

 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Last post by Bitcoin beavers was on Dec 15th, saying:

"Well, fuck. The bear flag worked. Looks like there'll be wailing and gnashing of teeth.
Anyway, if you do the math, according to the book, the bear flag points to 67k."

So far, the bear flag has not confirmed, and I am expecting decision time in 4 - 5 days. If it does not break down, then we'll see some upside, because the daily PSAR and MACD will likely flip to bullish.
However, looking at the weekly MACD, we seem to be in a similar position to February 2022, when a bear flag was invalidated, but a higher order bear flag broke down later.

Masterluc made a forecast when it mattered before. He might make another one that WILL matter again. Some people in BitcoinTalk have said that many of his predictions were wrong after that ONE that MATTERED, but WHO could actually make a market forecast with 100% accuracy.

[JayJuanGee]

I think Masterluc and Bitcoin Vanga and PentarhUdi are different names that one person uses.  He owns the Bitcoin Beavers Telegram channel.  His latest post is pretty bearish.
Клaccичecкaя зигзaг кoppeкция в фopмe гoлoвa-плeчи мoжeт зaнять 1 гoд и имeть минимyм 50-60к. Уpoвни кoppeкции xинтyют фибoнaчи ypoвни.
Translation:  The classic zigzag correction in the head-and-shoulders pattern can take 1 year and cost at least 50-60k.  The correction levels hint at Fibonacci levels.

If you want to see the chart he posted, search for Bitcoin Beavers on Telegram.

I was in Masterluc's Telegram channel before I lost my phone. I could have joined again, but I never felt the need. But I think Masterluc is probably a Four-Year-Cycle believer because of his long experience in Bitcoin?

If Bitcoin doesn't surge to another All Time High in January/February, then it's a bear market.
 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

--Snip--

Are you (JayJuanGee) mad again?

It is not like I am trying to stalk you. Your posts just invite such responses from this here cat...

[edited out]

Masterluc made a forecast when it mattered before. He might make another one that WILL matter again. Some people in BitcoinTalk have said that many of his predictions were wrong after that ONE that MATTERED, but WHO could actually make a market forecast with 100% accuracy.

That is part of the problem when some guys attribute way too much predictive powers to someone (such as Masterluc) based on their desires for the outcome rather than making sure to come to their own reasonable assessment and perhaps doing some of their own homework on the matter so that they are not overly attributing what is likely to happen and then acting upon that wrong information.. since we likely can assign probabilities to certain BTC price movements and attempting to adequately prepare for both price directions at the same time,

and surely I have identified your own (Wind_FURY) issue of ongoingly and persistently failing/refusing to sufficiently and adequately prepare for up.. .. yet at the same time, your continued wanting to argue the point.. hahahahahaha.. Maybe I am just trying to help^** you, no?  Have you ever thought about that?

**By the way, since we are in a public thread, my arguable attempts to help you or anyone else are not really personalized.

[Wind_FURY]

I think Masterluc and Bitcoin Vanga and PentarhUdi are different names that one person uses.  He owns the Bitcoin Beavers Telegram channel.  His latest post is pretty bearish.
Клaccичecкaя зигзaг кoppeкция в фopмe гoлoвa-плeчи мoжeт зaнять 1 гoд и имeть минимyм 50-60к. Уpoвни кoppeкции xинтyют фибoнaчи ypoвни.
Translation:  The classic zigzag correction in the head-and-shoulders pattern can take 1 year and cost at least 50-60k.  The correction levels hint at Fibonacci levels.

If you want to see the chart he posted, search for Bitcoin Beavers on Telegram.

I was in Masterluc's Telegram channel before I lost my phone. I could have joined again, but I never felt the need. But I think Masterluc is probably a Four-Year-Cycle believer because of his long experience in Bitcoin?

If Bitcoin doesn't surge to another All Time High in January/February, then it's a bear market.
 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

--Snip--

Are you (JayJuanGee) mad again?

It is not like I am trying to stalk you.

--Snip--

You (JayJuanGee) are welcome in my ignore list.

 

[Tzupy]

I think Masterluc and Bitcoin Vanga and PentarhUdi are different names that one person uses.  He owns the Bitcoin Beavers Telegram channel.  His latest post is pretty bearish.

Клaccичecкaя зигзaг кoppeкция в фopмe гoлoвa-плeчи мoжeт зaнять 1 гoд и имeть минимyм 50-60к. Уpoвни кoppeкции xинтyют фибoнaчи ypoвни.

Translation:  The classic zigzag correction in the head-and-shoulders pattern can take 1 year and cost at least 50-60k.  The correction levels hint at Fibonacci levels.

If you want to see the chart he posted, search for Bitcoin Beavers on Telegram.

I was in Masterluc's Telegram channel before I lost my phone. I could have joined again, but I never felt the need. But I think Masterluc is probably a Four-Year-Cycle believer because of his long experience in Bitcoin?

If Bitcoin doesn't surge to another All Time High in January/February, then it's a bear market.

 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Last post by Bitcoin beavers was on Dec 15th, saying:

"Well, fuck. The bear flag worked. Looks like there'll be wailing and gnashing of teeth.
Anyway, if you do the math, according to the book, the bear flag points to 67k."

So far, the bear flag has not confirmed, and I am expecting decision time in 4 - 5 days. If it does not break down, then we'll see some upside, because the daily PSAR and MACD will likely flip to bullish.
However, looking at the weekly MACD, we seem to be in a similar position to February 2022, when a bear flag was invalidated, but a higher order bear flag broke down later.

Daily PSAR flipped to bullish 3 days ago, and daily MACD crossed into positive today, so we should be soon testing resistance around 100k.
However, we are overbought on the daily, so we might need a small correction or sideways first.
If at 100k we'll see a strong rejection, then the larger order bear flag may come into play. If we'll see bullish consolidation, then the bottom was in at ~80k.

[Wind_FURY]

I think Masterluc and Bitcoin Vanga and PentarhUdi are different names that one person uses.  He owns the Bitcoin Beavers Telegram channel.  His latest post is pretty bearish.

Клaccичecкaя зигзaг кoppeкция в фopмe гoлoвa-плeчи мoжeт зaнять 1 гoд и имeть минимyм 50-60к. Уpoвни кoppeкции xинтyют фибoнaчи ypoвни.

Translation:  The classic zigzag correction in the head-and-shoulders pattern can take 1 year and cost at least 50-60k.  The correction levels hint at Fibonacci levels.

If you want to see the chart he posted, search for Bitcoin Beavers on Telegram.

I was in Masterluc's Telegram channel before I lost my phone. I could have joined again, but I never felt the need. But I think Masterluc is probably a Four-Year-Cycle believer because of his long experience in Bitcoin?

If Bitcoin doesn't surge to another All Time High in January/February, then it's a bear market.

 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Last post by Bitcoin beavers was on Dec 15th, saying:

"Well, fuck. The bear flag worked. Looks like there'll be wailing and gnashing of teeth.
Anyway, if you do the math, according to the book, the bear flag points to 67k."

So far, the bear flag has not confirmed, and I am expecting decision time in 4 - 5 days. If it does not break down, then we'll see some upside, because the daily PSAR and MACD will likely flip to bullish.
However, looking at the weekly MACD, we seem to be in a similar position to February 2022, when a bear flag was invalidated, but a higher order bear flag broke down later.

Daily PSAR flipped to bullish 3 days ago, and daily MACD crossed into positive today, so we should be soon testing resistance around 100k.

However, we are overbought on the daily, so we might need a small correction or sideways first.

If at 100k we'll see a strong rejection, then the larger order bear flag may come into play. If we'll see bullish consolidation, then the bottom was in at ~80k.

What's the probability for each one of them? I'm sort of biased because I'm a Four-Year-Cycle believer, but would it be right to say that there's a higher probability that $100,000 will be rejected and that Bitcoin will crash below $80,000?

Would that be such a "crazy" thought?

 🤔

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out].

What's the probability for each one of them? I'm sort of biased because I'm a Four-Year-Cycle believer, but would it be right to say that there's a higher probability that $100,000 will be rejected and that Bitcoin will crash below $80,000?

Would that be such a "crazy" thought?   🤔

Even if you are biased (which also means that you think that the 200WMA is due to be tested - which is currently at $57k), it remains a better practice to be sufficiently/adequately prepared for either price direction (or any price direction).

At the same time, the level of preparedness does have to do with a level of judgment in terms of how aggressive one might remain in his bitcoin accumulation and in terms of the quantity of bitcoin that he chooses to hold (if he is not selling any) - and also how much cash might he allow to stay ready for buying dips that may or may not happen, rather than just buying right away, just in case the BTC price goes up rather than down..

[Tzupy]

What's the probability for each one of them? I'm sort of biased because I'm a Four-Year-Cycle believer, but would it be right to say that there's a higher probability that $100,000 will be rejected and that Bitcoin will crash below $80,000?

Would that be such a "crazy" thought?

 🤔

It would be a trading mistake to assign probabilities to those two scenarios now.
The presumed bear flag did not break down, and the typical behaviour is to test major resistance, which is now around 100k.
I can say there's a high probability that we won't break through 100k soon, which means either consolidation or rejection will follow.
Even if rejection at 100k will result in testing major support, which is now at 87k and slowly rising, it does not mean support will break,
bitcoin price could continue bouncing within the channel. If however, after testing support, only a weak bounce will follow, then the next time support is tested it's very likely to break.

[Wind_FURY]

Bitcoin had perfect phases this cycle for the Price Oscillator Pivot, and now it's returned below the 0 line to start the 3 bear market pivots.

The first of the three is currently under formation.

Our data position lines up with these dates in other cycles:

- March 2014
- March 2018
- January 2022



https://x.com/cryptocon_/status/2009690776461074884

Everyone is going to hate the person behind this post.



I have noticed that there are more people today that believe that the Four-Year-Cycle will not happen anymore, BUT the data is telling us that it's going to happen.

[STT]

The easiest way to be wrong is guessing short term, its like watching a cat chasing its own tail.  Doesn't matter who you are or how skilled, anything can happen and any price can register erroneously week to week to throw off those predictions.
   Its far less effort and more likely to be accurate using wider time frames; bigger candles contain more volume and are innately more valid.

Masterluc might be predicting a long term view, far beyond what I'm seeing and perhaps Im medium term but price action now is good.  I'm looking today trying to decide in some minor way and was looking for BTC to progress (down) to its monthly average but its resisting that move.
   Moving to daily bars we are above a rising 50 day average, shorter term we're still negative below a weekly average so the main tool to decipher strength is in this contrast of who wins that battle.   Of course I have to side with the 50 day as being more valid representation though we cannot look at just one thing ever.
   All BTC has done this moment is climb a ladder to the ceiling, its bumped its head its not gone anywhere its within the same room contained, it should be noticeable if/when that restraint can be altered.

I might be short term in contrast to Master Luc but Im always bullish on the longest time frames of all.   We should be positive right until the next challenge appears probably around the 200 day average which is in decline and I wont think positively (fully) for 2026 until its ascending once more; it will be some time to proceed properly.

the Four-Year-Cycle will not happen anymore, BUT the data is telling us that it's going to happen.

We'll never simply repeat, I think the influence is in decline vs other factors.

[Wind_FURY]

The easiest way to be wrong is guessing short term, its like watching a cat chasing its own tail.  Doesn't matter who you are or how skilled, anything can happen and any price can register erroneously week to week to throw off those predictions.

But what is "short-term" about zooming out, and seeing that there are indeed a Four-Year-Cycles within the Bitcoin-Super-Cycle?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Masterluc might be predicting a long term view, far beyond what I'm seeing and perhaps Im medium term but price action now is good.  I'm looking today trying to decide in some minor way and was looking for BTC to progress (down) to its monthly average but its resisting that move.

Masterluc's latest prediction that was posted in the topic is actually a short-term view.

   

   Moving to daily bars we are above a rising 50 day average, shorter term we're still negative below a weekly average so the main tool to decipher strength is in this contrast of who wins that battle.   Of course I have to side with the 50 day as being more valid representation though we cannot look at just one thing ever.
   All BTC has done this moment is climb a ladder to the ceiling, its bumped its head its not gone anywhere its within the same room contained, it should be noticeable if/when that restraint can be altered.

I might be short term in contrast to Master Luc but Im always bullish on the longest time frames of all.   We should be positive right until the next challenge appears probably around the 200 day average which is in decline and I wont think positively (fully) for 2026 until its ascending once more; it will be some time to proceed properly.

the Four-Year-Cycle will not happen anymore, BUT the data is telling us that it's going to happen.

We'll never simply repeat, I think the influence is in decline vs other factors.

Perhaps you're right, but let's wait for what the market will do.

[Timotech]

Technical analysis is a useful tool for watching trends on a chart. However, recently many people have started trading with bots that have technical analysis concepts programmed into them.

[Tzupy]

Price just broke major support, the bear flag may be in play now, with a target around 74k, if the market does not recover above 89k quickly.

[Wind_FURY]

Price just broke major support, the bear flag may be in play now, with a target around 74k, if the market does not recover above 89k quickly.

What's masterluc's estimated time when Bitcoin goes to that $74,000 price-point? One month? Five months? Or perhaps Ten months?

Because Bitcoin's 200-Weekly SMA is about $57,000 currently, but it's slowly going up and it will probably be within $70,000 to $75,000 in ten months.

 

[Tzupy]

Price just broke major support, the bear flag may be in play now, with a target around 74k, if the market does not recover above 89k quickly.

What's masterluc's estimated time when Bitcoin goes to that $74,000 price-point? One month? Five months? Or perhaps Ten months?

Because Bitcoin's 200-Weekly SMA is about $57,000 currently, but it's slowly going up and it will probably be within $70,000 to $75,000 in ten months.

 

I don't know masterluc's time estimate.
We just had a whipsaw movement, first down to 87k, then back to 90k, so the support break has not confirmed yet. I have now set major support at 87k.
There is a significant amount of support around 87k, from the December price action, so breaking it first time was not so likely, especially while oversold on the 12h time frame.
To me it looks more likely that next we'll see a failed pump, maybe up to 94k, and then the next correction should break major support on volume.

[Wind_FURY]

Price just broke major support, the bear flag may be in play now, with a target around 74k, if the market does not recover above 89k quickly.

What's masterluc's estimated time when Bitcoin goes to that $74,000 price-point? One month? Five months? Or perhaps Ten months?

Because Bitcoin's 200-Weekly SMA is about $57,000 currently, but it's slowly going up and it will probably be within $70,000 to $75,000 in ten months.

 

I don't know masterluc's time estimate.

We just had a whipsaw movement, first down to 87k, then back to 90k, so the support break has not confirmed yet. I have now set major support at 87k.

There is a significant amount of support around 87k, from the December price action, so breaking it first time was not so likely, especially while oversold on the 12h time frame.

To me it looks more likely that next we'll see a failed pump, maybe up to 94k, and then the next correction should break major support on volume.

OK, did masterluc also post a possibility that it might crash below his "next target" of $74,000 IF the current major support at $87,000 will break?

I'm not much of a trader, but based on the price movement from the previous cycles, I believe  $74,000 is not low enough to Buy the DIP, and HODL.

[Tzupy]

Price just broke major support, the bear flag may be in play now, with a target around 74k, if the market does not recover above 89k quickly.

What's masterluc's estimated time when Bitcoin goes to that $74,000 price-point? One month? Five months? Or perhaps Ten months?

Because Bitcoin's 200-Weekly SMA is about $57,000 currently, but it's slowly going up and it will probably be within $70,000 to $75,000 in ten months.

 

I don't know masterluc's time estimate.

We just had a whipsaw movement, first down to 87k, then back to 90k, so the support break has not confirmed yet. I have now set major support at 87k.

There is a significant amount of support around 87k, from the December price action, so breaking it first time was not so likely, especially while oversold on the 12h time frame.

To me it looks more likely that next we'll see a failed pump, maybe up to 94k, and then the next correction should break major support on volume.

OK, did masterluc also post a possibility that it might crash below his "next target" of $74,000 IF the current major support at $87,000 will break?

I'm not much of a trader, but based on the price movement from the previous cycles, I believe  $74,000 is not low enough to Buy the DIP, and HODL.

The correction from 98k looks impulsive, so unless I see an impulsive move up, I am expecting the bearish outcome (bear flag to break down).
There is a lot of support in the 68k to 74k zone, because of the previous price action, from March to October 2024. And many traders know that, so they will buy the dip.
So it's very unlikely to break at the first test, but much more likely to see a major pump from that level, possibly resulting in a double top.

Latest post by masterluc on Telegram: "It hasn't worked yet, but it's on the edge. It's getting a bit boring."

[boumalo]

Right now it's 89k, looking bearish but Gold is at ATH and keeps going up.
The Fed does QE and the new board members will be more dovish in 2026 so the rates should fall and more money will be in the system, BTC should go back up to ATH then much higher.