Analysis

[JayJuanGee]

👍     Although the Double Top could happen, but personally, I believe if Bitcoin DIPs to $70,000 - then that will probably start its descent going to/under Bitcoin's 200-Weekly SMA, which could be the bottom of the current Bear Cycle.
Buy the DIP, and HODL wins AGAIN.

Right now you (Wind_FURY) are declaring victory, yet still you have not executed your bitcoin buys for this current dip that you are waiting for more dip and you seem to be still waiting until $58k (which is where the 200 WMA is located right now) which may or may not end up happening.  Sure, there seems to be some reasonable downward momentum currently, yet what are the odds for your target price to be reached and also for you to end up executing rather than waiting for more and more and more, since you never seem to get enough?  Perhaps you consider the odds to be greater than 50/50?  I am not sure about the odds, even though I get worried in any practices that depend on betting in one direction and failing to adequately prepare for either BTC price direction.  We might ask whether anyone be investing based on odds like that or maybe even getting the odds wrong?  Should we be gambling in our bitcoin accumulation approach rather than investing?

Sure, you know my stance, even though in current times (perhaps even since the BTC price went below $100k, you have been so giddy about dropping BTC prices, and for your dream to come true, since it seems that you have been waiting since mid-to-late 2023 to buy another dip that you consider to be significant enough to motivate you to buy - even though you probably would have had been way better off (and more assured) to have had been buying the whole time rather than seeming to overly employ waiting as a bitcoin investment approach.

Even specifically about you, I doubt that buy the dip and hodl (waiting) has been working out as well for you as you would like to paint such an approach, and even generally speaking, waiting has not tended to play out as a good investment strategy and including with bitcoin.

Let me give some examples related to aspects in your own forum history and some of your posts and your talking points on the topic of waiting, that shows that waiting was probably not as good of a bitcoin accumulation strategy as compared with ongoing acting and buying.. especially for anyone who is perhaps early in their bitcoin building journey and building their bitcoin holdings based on income that is coming in on a regular basis, such as if they were able to have a weekly income (or abilities to carry out weekly bitcoin buys). Here's three examples:

Example 1:  If you had been ongoingly buying bitcoin (such as weekly)  up until now since Mid-2023 (when you were waiting for the BTC price to go down from $27k to below $20k, and it did not happen), you would have had an average cost per BTC at right about $60k.. Not a bad place to be for someone buying bitcoin since mid-2023.

Example 2:  If you had been ongoingly buying bitcoin (such as weekly) up until now since April 2019 (when you started the buy the dip and HODL thread), you would have had an average cost per BTC at right about $21,400.. Not a bad place to be for someone buying bitcoin since April 2019.

Example 3:  If you had been ongoingly buying bitcoin (such as weekly) up until now since May 21, 2016 (since your forum registration date), you would have had an average cost per BTC at right about $5k.. Not a bad place to be for someone buying bitcoin since May 2016.

Of course, the above numbers show ongoing buying from the depicted date, and they would have had been better with frontloading of your bitcoin investment, so in that regard, there is no problem with front-loading your bitcoin investment to the extent that money might be available.  If you were to end up front loading your bitcoin investment, then at some point later down the road you would likely end up putting yourself in a place to be able to convert from regular and persistent buying of BTC and then supplement with buy the dips rather than buying bitcoin consistently and regularly.  

Whether you graduate into buying the dips rather than regular and ongoing buying depends on how much you are able to invest in the beginning, since there is a difference between someone who might be able to invest 5% of their income into bitcoin (based on their discretionary income) as compared with someone who can invest 25% of their income into bitcoin (based on their being able to generate sufficient discretionary income at that rate), since a person who is able to invest at the higher percentage rates, they may well get to a better sized bitcoin investment portfolio at an earlier date as compared with someone who is only able to invest into bitcoin at the lower rate.. so then waiting strategies might start to make more sense for guys who have already largely accumulated bitcoin decent amounts of bitcoin earlier in their bitcoin journey as compared with guys who are still early in their bitcoin accumulation timeline.

Of course, you can spin buying the dip and/or the employment of a waiting strategy to make it seem that it works.. yet overall waiting as a strategy seems to be inferior to an ongoing buying bitcoin strategy, in spite of your premature proclamations of victory in this dip (and you haven't bought yet), which you seem to be waiting approach is also not even showing to have had been beneficial (or better) based on your own various historical points as I pointed out (above) three of the timelines in which ongoing buying would have had ended up with decently reasonable average BTC buy prices.

[Kelward]

[edited out].

What's the probability for each one of them? I'm sort of biased because I'm a Four-Year-Cycle believer, but would it be right to say that there's a higher probability that $100,000 will be rejected and that Bitcoin will crash below $80,000?

Would that be such a "crazy" thought?   🤔

Even if you are biased (which also means that you think that the 200WMA is due to be tested - which is currently at $57k), it remains a better practice to be sufficiently/adequately prepared for either price direction (or any price direction).

At the same time, the level of preparedness does have to do with a level of judgment in terms of how aggressive one might remain in his bitcoin accumulation and in terms of the quantity of bitcoin that he chooses to hold (if he is not selling any) - and also how much cash might he allow to stay ready for buying dips that may or may not happen, rather than just buying right away, just in case the BTC price goes up rather than down..

Personally when it comes to Bitcoin investment I don't buy based on analysis of let's say the 200WMA, l look beyond that, I buy because I have the funds to buy at every given time that I scheduled. I think it's basically traders that worries about how dip Bitcoin should go even if they don't know when it's going to happen or if it would happen again, price might as well not slump that low again. Bitcoin investment is for the future especially if you plan to DCA for a couple of circles atleast, you should just use amount that you can afford to loose and move on after every purchase. If I can speak for myself I'd say that Bitcoin investment is one of the least complexities in my life, as long as I have the funds to buy with I'm good to go and I've prepared myself to accept whatever outcome that I get in the future, nothing is guaranteed.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out].

What's the probability for each one of them? I'm sort of biased because I'm a Four-Year-Cycle believer, but would it be right to say that there's a higher probability that $100,000 will be rejected and that Bitcoin will crash below $80,000?

Would that be such a "crazy" thought?   🤔

Even if you are biased (which also means that you think that the 200WMA is due to be tested - which is currently at $57k), it remains a better practice to be sufficiently/adequately prepared for either price direction (or any price direction).

At the same time, the level of preparedness does have to do with a level of judgment in terms of how aggressive one might remain in his bitcoin accumulation and in terms of the quantity of bitcoin that he chooses to hold (if he is not selling any) - and also how much cash might he allow to stay ready for buying dips that may or may not happen, rather than just buying right away, just in case the BTC price goes up rather than down..

Personally when it comes to Bitcoin investment I don't buy based on analysis of let's say the 200WMA, l look beyond that, I buy because I have the funds to buy at every given time that I scheduled. I think it's basically traders that worries about how dip Bitcoin should go even if they don't know when it's going to happen or if it would happen again, price might as well not slump that low again. Bitcoin investment is for the future especially if you plan to DCA for a couple of circles atleast, you should just use amount that you can afford to loose and move on after every purchase. If I can speak for myself I'd say that Bitcoin investment is one of the least complexities in my life, as long as I have the funds to buy with I'm good to go and I've prepared myself to accept whatever outcome that I get in the future, nothing is guaranteed.

Let's say that you have average income of around $30k per year or $2,500 per month with basic expenses of $1,500.

So every month (or however frequently you are paid) you can calculate tht your discretionary funds are $1k per month.. so then what are you going to do?  How much you putting into bitcoin, save and/or consume?  Those are the ONLY three options.

I will tell you that the more aggressive you are in your bitcoin investment, then you might worry about it more.  .. and yeah, if you are saving all of it, so that you can buy on the dip, then that would likely be stressful too... So, even if we get over the barrier of having extra money every month (aka discretionary funds), we still have to figure out how to balance those funds to minimize our level of stress, to the extent that part of our goal is to not be too stressed over our finances. 

[AprilioMP]

Let's say that you have average income of around $30k per year or $2,500 per month with basic expenses of $1,500.

So every month (or however frequently you are paid) you can calculate tht your discretionary funds are $1k per month.. so then what are you going to do?  How much you putting into bitcoin, save and/or consume?  Those are the ONLY three options.

I will tell you that the more aggressive you are in your bitcoin investment, then you might worry about it more.  .. and yeah, if you are saving all of it, so that you can buy on the dip, then that would likely be stressful too... So, even if we get over the barrier of having extra money every month (aka discretionary funds), we still have to figure out how to balance those funds to minimize our level of stress, to the extent that part of our goal is to not be too stressed over our finances. 

In terms of cash flow, it would be best to stick to the basic formula. I would say that cash flow should be divided into three categories: first, incoming cash; second, secure cash; and third, outgoing cash. If this can be verified, then it will be clear where the money is going.
I would also like to emphasize that irregular cash management will feel like money is disappearing without knowing where it went.
Of the three cash flows, I allocate 20% to secure cash, which I invest in Bitcoin so that at the end of the year I can see what percentage of assets I have without feeling worried.

[JayJuanGee]

Let's say that you have average income of around $30k per year or $2,500 per month with basic expenses of $1,500.

So every month (or however frequently you are paid) you can calculate tht your discretionary funds are $1k per month.. so then what are you going to do?  How much you putting into bitcoin, save and/or consume?  Those are the ONLY three options.

I will tell you that the more aggressive you are in your bitcoin investment, then you might worry about it more.  .. and yeah, if you are saving all of it, so that you can buy on the dip, then that would likely be stressful too... So, even if we get over the barrier of having extra money every month (aka discretionary funds), we still have to figure out how to balance those funds to minimize our level of stress, to the extent that part of our goal is to not be too stressed over our finances. 

In terms of cash flow, it would be best to stick to the basic formula. I would say that cash flow should be divided into three categories: first, incoming cash; second, secure cash; and third, outgoing cash. If this can be verified, then it will be clear where the money is going.

Your cash categories framework is ambiguous.  Many times guys consider that whatever funds are available after basic expenses have been taken care of as discretionary income.

Maybe your category of "secured cash" is talking about discretionary income?

Nonetheless, I don't see the point of confusing matters like you have done with your categories.  Your categories are not making matters more clear.

Of course, there can even be some variance in regards to how basic expenses are counted in order to arrive at what we consider to be discretionary income (or discretionary funds if we look at each time when they come available).

Once you have figure out your discretionary funds, then you have 3 choices regarding how to use those funds.

Invest, save and/or discretionary consumption.
 

I would also like to emphasize that irregular cash management will feel like money is disappearing without knowing where it went.

Surely income and/or expenses can vary and they can be quite irregular, which might be part of a justification that guys keep some extra back up funds in case the expenses might amount to more than income at various points in time.

Of the three cash flows, I allocate 20% to secure cash, which I invest in Bitcoin so that at the end of the year I can see what percentage of assets I have without feeling worried.

So you are describing secure cash as your savings (or your back up funds), yet you are wanting to designate some (or all?) of it towards future bitcoin investing.

Personally, I like the idea of weekly buys for anyone who is in their early bitcoin accumulation phase, and surely it could take 4-10 years or longer before guys might assess that they have enough bitcoin to graduate out of their accumulation phase.

Your idea of delaying the buying of bitcoin or buying yearly seems both whimpy and also not very serious when it comes to how you are viewing bitcoin.. .. but yeah, whatever, you can do what you like, even if it seems to me to be quite a whimpy approach to bitcoin, especially if you consider what bitcoin is.  You might not know.

By the way, you have been registered on the forum since April 2023, so you surely would have had been well off if you had front loaded your investment into bitcoin, yet even if you had just bought bitcoin something like $100 per week regularly for the past nearly 3 years, you would have had put close to $15k into bitcoin and accumulated right around 0.3 BTC.. which surely would not be a bad place to be even though your profits would not be very high right now.. but if you are investing for 4-10 years or longer, then you would be on a reasonably decent path.

Are you suggesting that you are on a better path in your own particular bitcoin-accumulation related situation right now?

[Kelward]

Personally when it comes to Bitcoin investment I don't buy based on analysis of let's say the 200WMA, l look beyond that, I buy because I have the funds to buy at every given time that I scheduled. I think it's basically traders that worries about how dip Bitcoin should go even if they don't know when it's going to happen or if it would happen again, price might as well not slump that low again. Bitcoin investment is for the future especially if you plan to DCA for a couple of circles atleast, you should just use amount that you can afford to loose and move on after every purchase. If I can speak for myself I'd say that Bitcoin investment is one of the least complexities in my life, as long as I have the funds to buy with I'm good to go and I've prepared myself to accept whatever outcome that I get in the future, nothing is guaranteed.

Let's say that you have average income of around $30k per year or $2,500 per month with basic expenses of $1,500.

So every month (or however frequently you are paid) you can calculate tht your discretionary funds are $1k per month.. so then what are you going to do?  How much you putting into bitcoin, save and/or consume?  Those are the ONLY three options.

I will tell you that the more aggressive you are in your bitcoin investment, then you might worry about it more.  .. and yeah, if you are saving all of it, so that you can buy on the dip, then that would likely be stressful too... So, even if we get over the barrier of having extra money every month (aka discretionary funds), we still have to figure out how to balance those funds to minimize our level of stress, to the extent that part of our goal is to not be too stressed over our finances. 

From what I've learnt and my experiences in basic economics concept I know that we need to priotize our financial needs in the order of their importance and this has been my guiding principle in my finances. From your illustration if I'm earning $2,500 per month and what goes into my discretionary funds after deducting basic expenses is $1000 I will have my scale of preference and in that hierarchy I will first allocate funds to the most important needs and coming down. This is where every Bitcoin investors have to decide where they place Bitcoin in their discretionary priority list because what is more important to me than Bitcoin can be less important to another investor. That is pretty much why it's called discretionary funds.

I agree that buying the dip and aggressively too shouldn't be a priority or worry for a long term investor, it gives unnecessary worries, I think it's best to DCA according to what you can comfortably afford from your discretionary funds and simply allocate it for accumulation.

[JayJuanGee]

Personally when it comes to Bitcoin investment I don't buy based on analysis of let's say the 200WMA, l look beyond that, I buy because I have the funds to buy at every given time that I scheduled. I think it's basically traders that worries about how dip Bitcoin should go even if they don't know when it's going to happen or if it would happen again, price might as well not slump that low again. Bitcoin investment is for the future especially if you plan to DCA for a couple of circles atleast, you should just use amount that you can afford to loose and move on after every purchase. If I can speak for myself I'd say that Bitcoin investment is one of the least complexities in my life, as long as I have the funds to buy with I'm good to go and I've prepared myself to accept whatever outcome that I get in the future, nothing is guaranteed.

Let's say that you have average income of around $30k per year or $2,500 per month with basic expenses of $1,500.

So every month (or however frequently you are paid) you can calculate tht your discretionary funds are $1k per month.. so then what are you going to do?  How much you putting into bitcoin, save and/or consume?  Those are the ONLY three options.

I will tell you that the more aggressive you are in your bitcoin investment, then you might worry about it more.  .. and yeah, if you are saving all of it, so that you can buy on the dip, then that would likely be stressful too... So, even if we get over the barrier of having extra money every month (aka discretionary funds), we still have to figure out how to balance those funds to minimize our level of stress, to the extent that part of our goal is to not be too stressed over our finances. 

From what I've learnt and my experiences in basic economics concept I know that we need to priotize our financial needs in the order of their importance and this has been my guiding principle in my finances. From your illustration if I'm earning $2,500 per month and what goes into my discretionary funds after deducting basic expenses is $1000 I will have my scale of preference and in that hierarchy I will first allocate funds to the most important needs and coming down.

The scenario that I gave presumed that all of the basic expenses were already covered in the $1,500 per month, which would likely include things like housing, utilities, various monthly plans that you have, main food (not optional food), basic transportation (not recreational transportation), clothing and perhaps some other from time to time expenses that you would consider to be needs rather than wants.  Sure itis possible that you could change some of the basics to save yourself some money, and surely you can sometimes consider and reconsider theses matters if you think that it might make some meaningful differences for you.  Sometimes you can still buy some of the items that are in the basic expenses but realize that there is an optional component to some of them... so whether you stay in a 3 bedroom , 2 baths in a nice neighborhood, or you stay in a 1 bedroom 1 bath in a less nice neighborhood or maybe you share with a friend or family member.

When I was getting down to the last 1,000 then those consumption items would all be wants rather than needs, and sure you can prioritize or deprioritize in terms of wants as well.

This is where every Bitcoin investors have to decide where they place Bitcoin in their discretionary priority list because what is more important to me than Bitcoin can be less important to another investor. That is pretty much why it's called discretionary funds.

You might not really realize some places that you could add or subtract, and maybe there are some things that you will not give up that might be social related or maybe even something like cigarettes which would seem  like a want rather than a need, yet some folks will still make sure that they spend on the cigarettes so maybe instead of 2 packs every 2 weeks, he could consider cutting down to 1 pack every 2 weeks or some other ways of changing some of the habits... and yeah they can be considered as optional and personal.

So then if there is a certain item like chocolate or some other sweets, and then the guy might realize that he spends around $10 per week on that item, yet if he cuts the item, will he end up replacing it with something else or would the $10 be available to put into bitcoin?  So then he might consider is the chocolate his priority or investing that $10 per week into bitcoin?  They are not necessarily easy answers and even the cut could end up costing money... so maybe twice every month, the guy spends on some social outing with friends and the social outings tend to cost anywhere between $30 and $60, depending on the activities for that month, yet maybe he ends up getting business or some emotional of financial benefits that are worth way more than the $30 to $60 each month that is spent on such social activities. Sometimes the cost/benefits might not be completely clear, and sometimes guys might miscalculate some of their costs and/or benefits that come from certain activities.. .so if there is a work related activity that is every month or a few times a year. The expense might be needed to keep the job and/or for the possibility of getting promoted..

I agree that buying the dip and aggressively too shouldn't be a priority or worry for a long term investor, it gives unnecessary worries, I think it's best to DCA according to what you can comfortably afford from your discretionary funds and simply allocate it for accumulation.

Once in a while it could make sense to have some portion that is set aside or held back for buying the dip, and I consider that most in the context of if a lump sum were to come available.. so maybe in the context of a guy had been investing in bitcoin for 3 years at $100 per week, and so he has a pretty steady pattern, yet all of a sudden he receives something like $4k as a bonus or maybe as some kind of an extra pay, and $5k is about a year of his DCA amount.  So in that context he might decide to allocate some of it for the possibility for buying the dip, maybe he dedicates $3,600 to buy right away in a DCA way (maybe $600 per week for the next 6 weeks) and $1,400 for buying the dip.. which he could set some target amounts and target prices...
 

[Kelward]

Personally when it comes to Bitcoin investment I don't buy based on analysis of let's say the 200WMA, l look beyond that, I buy because I have the funds to buy at every given time that I scheduled. I think it's basically traders that worries about how dip Bitcoin should go even if they don't know when it's going to happen or if it would happen again, price might as well not slump that low again. Bitcoin investment is for the future especially if you plan to DCA for a couple of circles atleast, you should just use amount that you can afford to loose and move on after every purchase. If I can speak for myself I'd say that Bitcoin investment is one of the least complexities in my life, as long as I have the funds to buy with I'm good to go and I've prepared myself to accept whatever outcome that I get in the future, nothing is guaranteed.

Let's say that you have average income of around $30k per year or $2,500 per month with basic expenses of $1,500.

So every month (or however frequently you are paid) you can calculate tht your discretionary funds are $1k per month.. so then what are you going to do?  How much you putting into bitcoin, save and/or consume?  Those are the ONLY three options.

I will tell you that the more aggressive you are in your bitcoin investment, then you might worry about it more.  .. and yeah, if you are saving all of it, so that you can buy on the dip, then that would likely be stressful too... So, even if we get over the barrier of having extra money every month (aka discretionary funds), we still have to figure out how to balance those funds to minimize our level of stress, to the extent that part of our goal is to not be too stressed over our finances. 

From what I've learnt and my experiences in basic economics concept I know that we need to priotize our financial needs in the order of their importance and this has been my guiding principle in my finances. From your illustration if I'm earning $2,500 per month and what goes into my discretionary funds after deducting basic expenses is $1000 I will have my scale of preference and in that hierarchy I will first allocate funds to the most important needs and coming down.

The scenario that I gave presumed that all of the basic expenses were already covered in the $1,500 per month, which would likely include things like housing, utilities, various monthly plans that you have, main food (not optional food), basic transportation (not recreational transportation), clothing and perhaps some other from time to time expenses that you would consider to be needs rather than wants.  Sure itis possible that you could change some of the basics to save yourself some money, and surely you can sometimes consider and reconsider theses matters if you think that it might make some meaningful differences for you.  Sometimes you can still buy some of the items that are in the basic expenses but realize that there is an optional component to some of them... so whether you stay in a 3 bedroom , 2 baths in a nice neighborhood, or you stay in a 1 bedroom 1 bath in a less nice neighborhood or maybe you share with a friend or family member.

When I was getting down to the last 1,000 then those consumption items would all be wants rather than needs, and sure you can prioritize or deprioritize in terms of wants as well.

This is where every Bitcoin investors have to decide where they place Bitcoin in their discretionary priority list because what is more important to me than Bitcoin can be less important to another investor. That is pretty much why it's called discretionary funds.

You might not really realize some places that you could add or subtract, and maybe there are some things that you will not give up that might be social related or maybe even something like cigarettes which would seem  like a want rather than a need, yet some folks will still make sure that they spend on the cigarettes so maybe instead of 2 packs every 2 weeks, he could consider cutting down to 1 pack every 2 weeks or some other ways of changing some of the habits... and yeah they can be considered as optional and personal.

So then if there is a certain item like chocolate or some other sweets, and then the guy might realize that he spends around $10 per week on that item, yet if he cuts the item, will he end up replacing it with something else or would the $10 be available to put into bitcoin?  So then he might consider is the chocolate his priority or investing that $10 per week into bitcoin?  They are not necessarily easy answers and even the cut could end up costing money... so maybe twice every month, the guy spends on some social outing with friends and the social outings tend to cost anywhere between $30 and $60, depending on the activities for that month, yet maybe he ends up getting business or some emotional of financial benefits that are worth way more than the $30 to $60 each month that is spent on such social activities. Sometimes the cost/benefits might not be completely clear, and sometimes guys might miscalculate some of their costs and/or benefits that come from certain activities.. .so if there is a work related activity that is every month or a few times a year. The expense might be needed to keep the job and/or for the possibility of getting promoted..

I agree that buying the dip and aggressively too shouldn't be a priority or worry for a long term investor, it gives unnecessary worries, I think it's best to DCA according to what you can comfortably afford from your discretionary funds and simply allocate it for accumulation.

Once in a while it could make sense to have some portion that is set aside or held back for buying the dip, and I consider that most in the context of if a lump sum were to come available.. so maybe in the context of a guy had been investing in bitcoin for 3 years at $100 per week, and so he has a pretty steady pattern, yet all of a sudden he receives something like $4k as a bonus or maybe as some kind of an extra pay, and $5k is about a year of his DCA amount.  So in that context he might decide to allocate some of it for the possibility for buying the dip, maybe he dedicates $3,600 to buy right away in a DCA way (maybe $600 per week for the next 6 weeks) and $1,400 for buying the dip.. which he could set some target amounts and target prices...
 

It is true that needs and wants are two different things, when it comes to budgeting we want a lot of things that we don't really need. This is the reason why it's difficult for some investors to properly analyze everything that they have to spend money on and place them accordingly. Priority is a key word when allocating funds, on the top is our essential needs which are primary, they are "none negotiable" while secondary needs which are our wants are for our numerous desires which falls into discretionary funds. There is need to be quite flexible in our discretionary funds, I think we can allow changes in the hierarchy of what we want, some wants can overtake each other since our survivals don't depend on them.

Bitcoin can be your top priority on your scale of preference while emergency funds will be second, you can reanalyze both and decide that emergency funds will come before Bitcoin accumulation, the top spots gets bigger allocations accordingly. Wants that cannot compete goes down on the list, constantly applying your discretion is needed to determine whether to adjust the list. Personally I don't give buying dip a place in my discretionary funds because I can only afford my regular DCA. If I must buy it means that I have to forgo some things in my discretionary funds inorder to afford the money which becomes an emergency expenditure. This is why I said that priorities in a discretionary funds don't have to be rigid.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

It is true that needs and wants are two different things, when it comes to budgeting we want a lot of things that we don't really need. This is the reason why it's difficult for some investors to properly analyze everything that they have to spend money on and place them accordingly. Priority is a key word when allocating funds, on the top is our essential needs which are primary, they are "none negotiable"

Personally, I think that there are cases that even basic needs might have some flexibility.  Sure we all likely need housing, utilities, food, transportation, yet some of that still might have some optionality built into it, even if we might be classifying them as basic needs.

while secondary needs which are our wants are for our numerous desires which falls into discretionary funds. There is need to be quite flexible in our discretionary funds, I think we can allow changes in the hierarchy of what we want, some wants can overtake each other since our survivals don't depend on them.

We might have some discretionary consumption that ends up converting into basic needs.  

Let's say that we need a new phone, so there is some basic needs in having a phone, yet we choose to buy a top end model and to put the phone on a 6-month payment plan.

So that basic item ends up being a luxury item that ends up getting included in our basic expenses based on it having had got put on a payment plan, so we have to make our payments.

Bitcoin can be your top priority on your scale of preference while emergency funds will be second, you can reanalyze both and decide that emergency funds will come before Bitcoin accumulation, the top spots gets bigger allocations accordingly. Wants that cannot compete goes down on the list, constantly applying your discretion is needed to determine whether to adjust the list.

I agree that priorities might change from week to week, and some of them might stay consistent.  It is our choice regarding which expenses are our priorities.

Personally I don't give buying dip a place in my discretionary funds because I can only afford my regular DCA. If I must buy it means that I have to forgo some things in my discretionary funds inorder to afford the money which becomes an emergency expenditure. This is why I said that priorities in a discretionary funds don't have to be rigid.

I personally think that if a guy keeps building his bitcoin investment then there is likely going to develop a natural desire to keep more and more cash on-hand and available.. so if you invest 15% of your income into bitcoin, then after about 7 years, you might have had put a whole year's of your income into bitcoin, and perhaps the BTC might have had appreciated.. and you might also start to feel that you need to have more funds available during bitcoin's flucutation periods, since bitcoin is becoming more and more a part of your overall networth...

Sure, some guys are going to screw these things up and they are going to end up either tapping into their bitcoin or otherwise putting themselves into a lot of stress, which can be part of the learning process that will incentivize wanting to make sure to keep more funds available in order to not get tempted to touch bitcoin and also potentially to be able to buy bitcoin on dips.

Of course, I cannot speak for you, since there may be a you who is 1 year into his bitcoin investment  and then another you who is 4 years into his bitcoin investment and then another you who is 9 years into his bitcoin investment and another you who is 12 years into his bitcoin investment.

I get the sense that if you are trying to learn as you go, then those versions of you are going to be changing at each of those stages of your bitcoin investment journey, too.

[Kelward]

[edited out]

It is true that needs and wants are two different things, when it comes to budgeting we want a lot of things that we don't really need. This is the reason why it's difficult for some investors to properly analyze everything that they have to spend money on and place them accordingly. Priority is a key word when allocating funds, on the top is our essential needs which are primary, they are "none negotiable"

Personally, I think that there are cases that even basic needs might have some flexibility.  Sure we all likely need housing, utilities, food, transportation, yet some of that still might have some optionality built into it, even if we might be classifying them as basic needs.

I agree with you and that is the reason why I put the words none negotiable in quote because it is not definite, it's a general saying atleast from where I'm from, it means that they are the very top priority when you receive your income. Yet it doesn't mean that they must remain rigid except peherps for food because we must eat to survive, even at that we can add or minus the budget for it. There can be scenarios when a want becomes essential that it can make it's way into the list of top essential priorities, it depends on the value that you attach to it. Example is that you don't need an expensive car to survive but if you realize that it will boost your image to get recognition in your line of business then saving to buying it can jump from your discretionary funds to your essential fund because it has gone from want to become a need.

Do you think that it is ideal if an investor decides to jump his Bitcoin accumulation from 'want' which is where it's supposed to be into a 'need' because he has placed it beyond the value and priority of discretionary funds? My answer is NO but I wouldn't mind if you can give your thoughts.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

It is true that needs and wants are two different things, when it comes to budgeting we want a lot of things that we don't really need. This is the reason why it's difficult for some investors to properly analyze everything that they have to spend money on and place them accordingly. Priority is a key word when allocating funds, on the top is our essential needs which are primary, they are "none negotiable"

Personally, I think that there are cases that even basic needs might have some flexibility.  Sure we all likely need housing, utilities, food, transportation, yet some of that still might have some optionality built into it, even if we might be classifying them as basic needs.

I agree with you and that is the reason why I put the words none negotiable in quote because it is not definite, it's a general saying atleast from where I'm from, it means that they are the very top priority when you receive your income. Yet it doesn't mean that they must remain rigid except peherps for food because we must eat to survive, even at that we can add or minus the budget for it.

I don't see how food is any different, even though it is much easier to change as compared with what housing you choose to live in.

With food, you need a certain amount to live (and/or to be sufficiently healthy to earn income). At the same time, you can choose between steak and hotdogs.

With housing, you need a certain quantity of it, yet you can choose between luxury and pure basic.. yet once you are in lodging commitment, you might not be able to change it really quickly.. maybe you commit for a year at a time or maybe you have month to month and maybe you own a lot of possessions that you move in the event that you change your lodgings.

There can be scenarios when a want becomes essential that it can make it's way into the list of top essential priorities, it depends on the value that you attach to it. Example is that you don't need an expensive car to survive but if you realize that it will boost your image to get recognition in your line of business then saving to buying it can jump from your discretionary funds to your essential fund because it has gone from want to become a need.

Yes.  The costs and benefits of certain items might not be clear from the face value of it, so yes there can be various intangible benefits and even benefits that later turn into tangibles... So sometimes business person's or sales persons will purposefully upgrade the level of luxury of their car to create an impression that likely increases sales and/or their business.  It also could be that a person who is trying to lure a partner might try to show a level of being able to provide in order to attract more potential partners so that he would be able to choose a partner that he considers to be higher quality.
 

Do you think that it is ideal if an investor decides to jump his Bitcoin accumulation from 'want' which is where it's supposed to be into a 'need' because he has placed it beyond the value and priority of discretionary funds?

My answer is NO but I wouldn't mind if you can give your thoughts.

I think that you are engaging in fuzzy logic if you are investing into bitcoin in that kind of a way, even though surely we should be able to imagine that bitcoin could potentially be providing for a person's future income and future livelihood, so in that sense bitcoin has a certain priority so that at some point later down the road he is going to be able to stop working and perhaps not having to damage his health by stress and/or work that he does not want to do in his old age.

I still think that it is better to make sure that we take care of all of our basic expenses first before allocating any value towards bitcoin.. and sure maybe a guy could consider bitcoin to be the highest of priorities in regards to how he is using his discretionary income, yet it becomes problematic to be considering the investment into bitcoin as if it were a basic need, since investment into bitcoin is preparation for the future.. Investing into bitcoin is deferring current income in order to potentially be able to use that current income in the future.. and maybe even with the potential of current income growing by the time it becomes future income.

[Kelward]

[edited out]

It is true that needs and wants are two different things, when it comes to budgeting we want a lot of things that we don't really need. This is the reason why it's difficult for some investors to properly analyze everything that they have to spend money on and place them accordingly. Priority is a key word when allocating funds, on the top is our essential needs which are primary, they are "none negotiable"

Personally, I think that there are cases that even basic needs might have some flexibility.  Sure we all likely need housing, utilities, food, transportation, yet some of that still might have some optionality built into it, even if we might be classifying them as basic needs.

I agree with you and that is the reason why I put the words none negotiable in quote because it is not definite, it's a general saying atleast from where I'm from, it means that they are the very top priority when you receive your income. Yet it doesn't mean that they must remain rigid except peherps for food because we must eat to survive, even at that we can add or minus the budget for it.

I don't see how food is any different, even though it is much easier to change as compared with what housing you choose to live in.

With food, you need a certain amount to live (and/or to be sufficiently healthy to earn income). At the same time, you can choose between steak and hotdogs.

With housing, you need a certain quantity of it, yet you can choose between luxury and pure basic.. yet once you are in lodging commitment, you might not be able to change it really quickly.. maybe you commit for a year at a time or maybe you have month to month and maybe you own a lot of possessions that you move in the event that you change your lodgings.

There can be scenarios when a want becomes essential that it can make it's way into the list of top essential priorities, it depends on the value that you attach to it. Example is that you don't need an expensive car to survive but if you realize that it will boost your image to get recognition in your line of business then saving to buying it can jump from your discretionary funds to your essential fund because it has gone from want to become a need.

Yes.  The costs and benefits of certain items might not be clear from the face value of it, so yes there can be various intangible benefits and even benefits that later turn into tangibles... So sometimes business person's or sales persons will purposefully upgrade the level of luxury of their car to create an impression that likely increases sales and/or their business.  It also could be that a person who is trying to lure a partner might try to show a level of being able to provide in order to attract more potential partners so that he would be able to choose a partner that he considers to be higher quality.
 

Do you think that it is ideal if an investor decides to jump his Bitcoin accumulation from 'want' which is where it's supposed to be into a 'need' because he has placed it beyond the value and priority of discretionary funds?

My answer is NO but I wouldn't mind if you can give your thoughts.

I think that you are engaging in fuzzy logic if you are investing into bitcoin in that kind of a way, even though surely we should be able to imagine that bitcoin could potentially be providing for a person's future income and future livelihood, so in that sense bitcoin has a certain priority so that at some point later down the road he is going to be able to stop working and perhaps not having to damage his health by stress and/or work that he does not want to do in his old age.

I still think that it is better to make sure that we take care of all of our basic expenses first before allocating any value towards bitcoin.. and sure maybe a guy could consider bitcoin to be the highest of priorities in regards to how he is using his discretionary income, yet it becomes problematic to be considering the investment into bitcoin as if it were a basic need, since investment into bitcoin is preparation for the future.. Investing into bitcoin is deferring current income in order to potentially be able to use that current income in the future.. and maybe even with the potential of current income growing by the time it becomes future income.

It's been a couple of days of educative interactions with you and I've gained a lot here. I truly envy your stamina and dedication in being very tirelessly explicit in threads that you're active in, I've always wanted to tell you and I think this is a good time.

Guess I should take a breather from this thread.