Analysis

[JayJuanGee]

The debate between DCA and timing the 200WMA really comes down to your personal Time Preference. As Jay pointed out, if your horizon is 5-10 years, your entry price today is almost irrelevant.
However, for those of us who entered late in this cycle, the psychological hit of a 20% correction to the 200WMA is real. Maybe the middle ground is the best play, keep the weekly DCA running to ensure you aren't left behind, but keep a separate crash fund specifically for when the 200WMA or the Realized Price gets tested. That way, you win regardless of which way the chart moves.

From my point of view, the less time that you have been accumulating, the less reason that you have to be holding back any significant amounts of value waiting for dips that might not happen.

Sure, if you have already been in bitcoin for 6-10 years (like Wind_FURY perhaps, even though he claims that he did not get serious about BTC accumulation until early 2019), then you have more luxury to wait for dips that might not happen.  I doubt that Wind_FURY is really helping his own finances by ongoingly practicing  waiting approach to bitcoin, even if there might be some chance that he is able to get lucky this  time, which is surely quite questionable whether his waiting is going to end up paying off.

In other words, there is no guarantee that bitcoin will ever go below $68k ever again.

Furthermore, ongoing buying puts you into a better mindset, and you likely should stay focused on buying bitcoin for at least a whole cycle and perhaps even two cycles, unless you might have had been able to front load your bitcoin investment..

Surely guys who got into bitcoin at any time after the November 2024 Trump pump may likely have some regrets if they had been front loading their investment in the last year or year and a half or so, and so then right now their holdings are in the negative (on paper).  From my own perspective, newbies should not be fucking around watching BTC prices rather than ongoingly buying bitcoin based on their own finances.

Now, if you think that you might feel better holding back some value based on your perception that some kind of a dip might happen (to the 200-WMA or to the realized price as you mentioned), then I would be careful in holding back more than 20% of your weekly bitcoin investment allowance for such purposes, even though sure you can come to another number based on the probability that you assign to various dip levels that may or may not end up playing out..

In the end, each of us is responsible for our own choices, so yeah, if you are gambling with your bitcoin then maybe it will work out for you... perhaps ? perhaps?

Yet, if you truly have an investors mentality that would likely be more than 10 years into the future (since having timelines below 10 years would probably ONLY be justified based on age and/or health circumstances), then you are probably better to not be fucking around holding back too much value for dips that might not end up happening.

[Tzupy]

Only 76k, not 80k as I expected, after the daily MACD cross into positive. Major support around 68k, then 64.5k. If 68k holds, we should see a nice bounce.

The bounce was underwhelming. We seem to be in another bear flag, but it has not broken down yet. Major support is around 66k (right now ~69.5k), and if it will break soon, then the target would be between 54k and 48k.

[JayJuanGee]

Only 76k, not 80k as I expected, after the daily MACD cross into positive. Major support around 68k, then 64.5k. If 68k holds, we should see a nice bounce.

The bounce was underwhelming. We seem to be in another bear flag, but it has not broken down yet. Major support is around 66k (right now ~69.5k), and if it will break soon, then the target would be between 54k and 48k.

Holy cow.

From time to time, you bears surely can come up with some scary-ass numbers.

[Wind_FURY]

Only 76k, not 80k as I expected, after the daily MACD cross into positive. Major support around 68k, then 64.5k. If 68k holds, we should see a nice bounce.

The bounce was underwhelming. We seem to be in another bear flag, but it has not broken down yet. Major support is around 66k (right now ~69.5k), and if it will break soon, then the target would be between 54k and 48k.

It's laughable that some people get mad when there are predictions posted such as yours.

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Everyone should be happy if it actually happens because that would mean it's another Golden Opportunity to buy Bitcoin at another discount before the next Bull Cycle.

[Tzupy]

The presumed bear flag has not broken down yet. If it doesn't within 3 days, the bearish pattern might get invalidated for now, and we could see some nice upside.

[Wind_FURY]

The presumed bear flag has not broken down yet. If it doesn't within 3 days, the bearish pattern might get invalidated for now, and we could see some nice upside.

In what price-point will it say that it's invalidated? I believe the people who Buy the DIP and follow that 200-Weekly SMA Line and the traders like you are looking at the same long-term patterns.

The people who Buy the DIP expect Bitcoin to fall below the 200-Weekly SMA Line which will tally with your projection of  Bitcoin to go down to $48,000 - $54,000.

[Tzupy]

The presumed bear flag has not broken down yet. If it doesn't within 3 days, the bearish pattern might get invalidated for now, and we could see some nice upside.

In what price-point will it say that it's invalidated? I believe the people who Buy the DIP and follow that 200-Weekly SMA Line and the traders like you are looking at the same long-term patterns.

The people who Buy the DIP expect Bitcoin to fall below the 200-Weekly SMA Line which will tally with your projection of  Bitcoin to go down to $48,000 - $54,000.

The market is in a position similar to the 29th Jan, but several indicators are looking more bullish.
If the market does not break down to 63k and then lower tomorrow, then in a couple of days it is likely to break up from a large wedge.
This would not invalidate the bear flag (I still believe it's one, because of overlapping waves), just the current still possible break down, resulting in a potential ~14% upside.

[Wind_FURY]

The presumed bear flag has not broken down yet. If it doesn't within 3 days, the bearish pattern might get invalidated for now, and we could see some nice upside.

In what price-point will it say that it's invalidated? I believe the people who Buy the DIP and follow that 200-Weekly SMA Line and the traders like you are looking at the same long-term patterns.

The people who Buy the DIP expect Bitcoin to fall below the 200-Weekly SMA Line which will tally with your projection of  Bitcoin to go down to $48,000 - $54,000.

The market is in a position similar to the 29th Jan, but several indicators are looking more bullish.
If the market does not break down to 63k and then lower tomorrow, then in a couple of days it is likely to break up from a large wedge.
This would not invalidate the bear flag (I still believe it's one, because of overlapping waves), just the current still possible break down, resulting in a potential ~14% upside.

?

OK, then it has a higher probability to make a mini-crash than a mini-surge to get out of its current situation?

The war in the Middle East also doesn't help Bitcoin's current situation. Metals market are also starting to crash. It's only Crude Oil, both WTI and Brent, that are surging.

Hashing costs are definitely also surging.

   ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Tzupy]

Gareth Soloway has a better explanation on the large wedge, although I believe this could happen sooner:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Eb6fYPj4TY

[Wind_FURY]

Gareth Soloway has a better explanation on the large wedge, although I believe this could happen sooner:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Eb6fYPj4TY

 👍

Thanks for the link. Although he didn't actually say if Bitcoin will surge or crash, which we plebs would truly like to know. Haha.

But personally, I believe nothing will happen for more than his projected eleven days. It will be longer in my opinion.

[Tzupy]

Gareth Soloway has a better explanation on the large wedge, although I believe this could happen sooner:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Eb6fYPj4TY

 👍

Thanks for the link. Although he didn't actually say if Bitcoin will surge or crash, which we plebs would truly like to know. Haha.

But personally, I believe nothing will happen for more than his projected eleven days. It will be longer in my opinion.

Well, that's what traders do. Evaluate the opportunity for trading, which most of the time is not there, too much risk for too little potential reward.
Then watch for clear signals in multiple indicators, and patterns, which could lead to significant moves.

I believe the most probable scenario is that it will break up sooner, but hit major resistance at 72k, get rejected in an impulsive manner, and then crash.

[Wind_FURY]

Gareth Soloway has a better explanation on the large wedge, although I believe this could happen sooner:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Eb6fYPj4TY

 👍

Thanks for the link. Although he didn't actually say if Bitcoin will surge or crash, which we plebs would truly like to know. Haha.

But personally, I believe nothing will happen for more than his projected eleven days. It will be longer in my opinion.

Well, that's what traders do. Evaluate the opportunity for trading, which most of the time is not there, too much risk for too little potential reward.

Then watch for clear signals in multiple indicators, and patterns, which could lead to significant moves.

 👍

I believe the most probable scenario is that it will break up sooner, but hit major resistance at 72k, get rejected in an impulsive manner, and then crash.

 👀

When traders like you go short to make a profit during such volatile times, HODLers see it as merely another opportunity to place their bids lower and get another purchase with a good discount.

More units of Bitcoin for the same amount of fiat.

[Tzupy]

On the 6th pf April, masterluc posted:
Descending channel to your feed. I think this channel will be broken upwards. There's super-massive support at 58k.

My take: until broken, this trendline is major resistance, but since weekly PSAR just flipped bullish, the chances to break up are good, with a target about 80k.

[Wind_FURY]

On the 6th pf April, masterluc posted:
Descending channel to your feed. I think this channel will be broken upwards. There's super-massive support at 58k.

I can only imagine Masterluc's lines in the graph, but the current mini-surge to $74,000 probably broke the channel upwards, no?

 

My take: until broken, this trendline is major resistance, but since weekly PSAR just flipped bullish, the chances to break up are good, with a target about 80k.

BUT after $80,000, then where to? 👀

Both up and down are definitely good for HODLers.

[Tzupy]

Looks broken up and confirmed to me. But this does not invalidate the bear flag scenario.
To be reasonably sure the bottom is in, I'd like to see a push to 90k, followed by bullish consolidation.
Otherwise, if we push even to 84k, but the rejection will look impulsive, the bear flag will likely break down.
In which case, I suspect we'll have another year of bear market, with a bottom around 30k.

[Wind_FURY]

Looks broken up and confirmed to me. But this does not invalidate the bear flag scenario.
To be reasonably sure the bottom is in, I'd like to see a push to 90k, followed by bullish consolidation.
Otherwise, if we push even to 84k, but the rejection will look impulsive, the bear flag will likely break down.
In which case, I suspect we'll have another year of bear market, with a bottom around 30k.

In my personal opinion, a Black Swan will be the only event that will make Bitcoin crash from the current price point. It wouldn't be a Black Swan if it was expected, BUT there are some people that have been looking at the Private Credit market as a probable cause for another break down that could cause an economic crisis because the banksters have massive amounts of capital loaned or invested in it.

 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[letteredhub]

Both up and down are definitely good for HODLers.

That's the incredible part of HODLing with a frame of longtime in the plan, like for a cycle or more, whichever ways the market price moves towards it's favours you. Downwards, gives a lucrative opening to accumulate more bitcoin at what we can commonly call a discount price which invariably gives opportunity to buy more. While upwards move doesn't only provide the opportunity to make profit, which is the main focus for every HODLers, but boosts confidence of HODLers and the security of the bitcoin network.

[Wind_FURY]

Both up and down are definitely good for HODLers.

That's the incredible part of HODLing with a frame of longtime in the plan, like for a cycle or more, whichever ways the market price moves towards it's favours you. Downwards, gives a lucrative opening to accumulate more bitcoin at what we can commonly call a discount price which invariably gives opportunity to buy more. While upwards move doesn't only provide the opportunity to make profit, which is the main focus for every HODLers, but boosts confidence of HODLers and the security of the bitcoin network.

Actually, NO, not every HODLer. Almost ALL of my Bitcoin is in cold-storage which I'll NEVER sell because there's a mere "opportunity for profit". Those coins will not be sold until, maybe, Bitcoin during a seven digit price valuation?

That's probably going to happen within a decade, TO WHICH, I'll probably say "let's wait for eight digits"?

  

I'll probably need my own house in ten years. Hopefully people generally accept Bitcoin for home purchases in 2036.

[Tzupy]

We are experiencing an event driven market, and it looks like the potential crash (the indicators were not ripe anyway) is delayed:

Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal. I have therefore directed our Military to continue the Blockade and, in all other respects, remain ready and able, and will therefore extend the Ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other. President DONALD J. TRUMP

[Tzupy]

masterluc believes the bottom is in, posted this on the 22nd:

Why am I so sure there won't be new lows? Because the rainbow chart shows the lowest zone. It can't go any lower. Meanwhile, the highest zones have already surpassed $1 million. I consider this indicator very reliable. And it shows that we need to buy frantically.

My take: we are close to major resistance, and some indicators show overbought. I doubt the breaking up from this channel, although if it happens and confirms, it would be very bullish.
I am looking to a repeat of the March 2022 scenario, we peaked around 48k, then crashed down to eventually 15k. The renewed bombing of Iran, after negotiations failure, could provide the impulsive move down.