Bitcoin Beavers:
Retest passed. Below will be some bear meat.
I don't know, maybe it's a triangle. Just a guess.
My take:
Presumed bear flag broke down, has not confirmed yet. Major support became major resistance around 71k.
If this bear market continues to keep the proportions of 2022, the targets would be first around 45k, then later 31k.
There was also the, probably "not serious", post about Bitcoin's monthly chart that recently showed the 200-Monthly SMA for the first time. It's on around the $21,000 price-point. Let's hope that doesn't test that price-point.
I posted about it in Buy the DIP topic,
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5132720.msg66793460#msg66793460 
You are citing your dumb fantasy-landia self to support your repetition of the same dumb idea.
How could the 200-Monthly Moving Average be any kind of realistic indicator of a reasonable bottoming point, when if you actually think about the matter, 200 months is 16.67 years which is like the totality of bitcoin's price history.. How can that be relevant, when there is just one of them?
I already responded to your above linked post in that other thread. By the way, I did a quickie look at the 200-month moving average price, and I see that currently it is around $23k, and I was not able to do it on Trading view because I don't have a membership and it seemed that using moving average indicators requires a membership on Trading view.
I did accomplish some similar variation of an indicator by going to bitcoin wisdom.io, and when I was on the weekly candles, I went into the "Settings" tabs, and selected "Indicator parameters" at the bottom, and for the EMA/MA I put 866 for one of the parameters, which would be about the same when looking at the weekly candles as a 200-Month moving average.
I think that in the last year or maybe it was earlier, I had some discussions with @bitmover and also perhaps with some other members regarding the problematic potentials in terms of even relying upon bitcoin's 200-WMA when BTC did not even have a whole history of at least 4 years of price data, and even though I have been frequently using January 1, 2012 as bitcoin's starting pricing point since the BTC spot price and the 200-WMA was very close to $5 each.. yet at the same time, the 200-WMA is really not even in existence at that time, since bitcoin did not have any price when the first block was found on January 3, 2009 - yet even by the time a few trades were made to buy pizzas and/or alpaca socks in mid-2010-ish.. yet maybe we might not even really consider bitcoin to have a somewhat 4-year price history until perhaps measuring from mid-2010 to mid-2014, which might potentially first allow for the 200-WMA to become somewhat valid starting in mid-2014 rather than my January 1, 2012 starting date.
My point is that it comes off as even more retarded to proclaim the whole of bitcoin's price history as a moving average, especially when there are no comparison points, and perhaps there is also almost no reason to do it, except to figure out some ways to create wishful parameters in order to fantasize about some price that is not very likely to happen, yet to put some kind of a rational basis for that price to be "in play."
Lol me too
I am not ready for 31k
Ofc I will hold, but that is something I really didnt see it coming.
Maybe I should had sold more aggressively over 100k in the past year. I sold about 10% of my stash in 2025
I will certainly sell much more (like 20% ) if we go over 100k again in 2027/28
Frequently, it is difficult to get out of the mental trap of "could of," "should of," "would of," since afterwards the price moves seem to be so obvious, since they had already happened, yet for sure when we are in the midst of trying to balance our expectations of possibilities of UP versus possibilities of DOWN, we are likely coming up with some reasonable calculations based on what we feel that we know at the time.
I notice that you are merely saying that you sold over $100k - yet you are not really saying that you sold at the various higher BTC price points between $108k and $126k, even though the fact of the matter was that we spent a considerable amount of solid time of 3.5 months-ish between the beginning of July 2025 and mid-October 2025 in which BTC prices were fairly solidly in that upper range.
I have no way of really knowing how to fix our own attempts to have future regret, even though surely both price-based sustainable withdrawal and time-based sustainable withdrawal could be ways to attempt to at least try to take some of the emotions out of our bitcoin management practices, and you know that my own historical criticisms of guys deploying those practices as trades rather than actual sustainable withdrawal has frequently been to proclaim that guys should not be deploying such practices when they still consider themselves to be in their accumulation phase and also that I had frequently proclaimed that guys will prematurely and opportunistically assess themselves being in overaccumulation status when they are really unable to resist their temptations to try to trade, which is so difficult to achieve even if we end up having some reasonably decent success in a decent number of our calls.
So then even with your selling of 10%-ish of your stash at supra $100k prices, if you really were not wanting to lessen your bitcoin holdings and you had intentions to either increase your bitcoin stash or at least to keep your bitcoin stash at similar levels that you had at the time that you sold, there still can be a lot of difficulties and dilemmas in regards to when to buy back and/or at what various price points to buy back how much of our stash with whatever funds that we have, whether it is from the money that had been generated from the earlier sale or if it might be from new money that we have coming in (to the extent that we might still be working and/or generating money from other investments that we might have).
So, yeah, even if some of us might have had chosen to sell some of our coins at supra $100k prices or whatever prices
(even selling some at supra $90k prices is looking o.k. these days), there could almost be no way in hell that too many of us would be holding back large amounts of value to buy bitcoin in the low $50ks, or low $40ks or even Tzupy's assertion that $31k-ish price territories might reasonably be in play.. and so in some, sense bitcoin might be feeling like it might be broken if those kinds of seemingly outrageously low prices were to come even close to being touched upon, even though the way that Tzupy phrases the matter, he seems to be trying to normalize such BTC price extremes (especially on the low side) as if it were somewhat reasonable and would not even knock out reasonable chances for $250k-ish to come into play within the next cycle, and sure it is possible that he could be correct and there might be ways to stay calm, even if BTC prices seem to be wanting to go to what some of us
(less bearishly inclined guys) might be considering outrageous lows.
In regards to your tentative plans for "next time we go above $100k," it may well be reasonable to authorize yourself for higher sales amounts, since none of us is getting any younger, and sometimes there can be acceptable parameters that don't really hurt to deploy, yet at the same time, it could be problematic to "overcorrect," too based on regrets about how you had ended up handling the last time around. Sure, we should be striving to learn from our experiences, yet we also have to be careful about overcorrecting, to the extent overcorrecting could end up being an issue...
By the way, right now, I have BTC buy orders set down to right around $37.5k (which is getting close to 40% below our current 200-WMA), so I feel like I have prepared for further down than I had prepared for in 2022, since in 2022, my buy orders had gone down to slightly above $20k (right around 8% below the then 200-WMA that was at right around $22k).. and I thought that I was more than prepared, even for extremes that might end up playing out.. yet when the BTC price dropped from the upper $30ks to the lower $30ks based on the Terra/Luna news, I kind of got the sense that the BTC price was going to be fucked in the near term and even harder to really maintain support - especially the prior support that seemed to have existed in the mid-to-upper $20ks, so I made some adjustments to some of my buy orders to make my mid-to-upper $20k buy orders smaller and then to spread my buy orders down to the $19k-ish territories, which might have had gotten me to having BTC buy orders going to 12%-ish below the then 200-WMA.... and so I felt better after I had made those adjustments, yet my feeling better did not even seem to last very long, since it seems that during the rapid crash from the mid-$20ks and even going into the $17ks, had caused me to pull some of my buy orders off of the table, since if all of my then buy orders would have had executed, then I would have had spent all of my then available money, which was not a place that I wanted to be, even though having so many buy orders execute all the way from $60k-ish and all the way down to $20k-ish did not really leave very much money anyhow, so what money was remaining was likely more symbolic rather than materially meaningful in regards to my own portfolio management and/or my then buying on the dip bitcoin accumulation practices.
I scrambled for a day or two without any further buy orders and with some intentions to figure out how I was going to both treat my remaining money and any future expected income, which was largely to consider keeping the ongoing buy orders in place and perhaps to figure out some potential ways to just start to supplement what I was doing with a kind of return to DCA.. Many of us, who went through that period, realize that it was quite grueling all the way between about June 2022 and perhaps even into January/February 2023, even though perhaps around Christmas 2022 there were starting to appear some hopeful signs that the November bottom of $15,479 could be "in," yet surely even through a lot of 2023 the bottom being "in" was not even completely comfortable until perhaps starting around October 2023-ish when it started to be more and more convincing that Blackrock (et al) BTC spot ETFs were likely to both be approved and to go live in the then near future.
So, part of my point is that, I am feeling more prepared than I felt in 2022, since my outstanding BTC buy orders go down further than they had been in 2022, yet there still remains discomfort, even for me, that the ongoing entrance of new players into bitcoin, and the ongoing various disputes and battles around bitcoin, it becomes harder to really confidently conclude (speculate) that some of our earlier measurements around the 200-WMA will necessarily continue to hold - including my always ongoing suspicion that there are quite a few bitcoin custodians who are playing around with variations of paper bitcoin, and even though we have seen them get burned on the way down and on the way up, it frequently seems logical that their getting burnt on the way up would make it way more difficult for them to fill their bitcoin (balance sheet) hole as compared with when the BTC price is going down.. It seems that MTGOX was largely burned on the way up, and FTX was burned on the way down...so I am not even claiming to really figure out how some of the paper bitcoiners could be reasonable (and deservedly) be flushed from their BTC price manipulation systems/practices.
Lol me too
I am not ready for 31k
Ofc I will hold, but that is something I really didnt see it coming.
Maybe I should had sold more aggressively over 100k in the past year. I sold about 10% of my stash in 2025
I will certainly sell much more (like 20% ) if we go over 100k again in 2027/28NO, DON'T SELL DURING THOSE YEARS/THAT PART OF THE CYCLE.
- 2027 will be a year of the best buying opportunities part of the cycle.
- 2028 will be a Halving Year, and more price surges. Another year of buying opportunities.
- 2029, YOUR YEAR to sell. High probability the next All Time High will be made during 2029.
Right now, this is not an unreasonable framework, even though it can become too problematic to get too wedded to either strict expectations and of course, ongoingly holding back value when accumulating bitcoin. Of course, when guys have already accumulated enough or more than enough bitcoin, they have more options since they have already assessed themselves as having enough or more than enough bitcoin, so they can deploy price-based sustainable withdrawal and/or time-based sustainable withdrawal, and the application becomes somewhat mechanical rather than trying to strategize and/or to time tops and/or bottoms.
