Although you "may" be right, BUT currently, Bitcoin's Four-Year-Cycle is STILL INTACT. Why make decisions because you "believe" that you're absolutely right and the market is wrong, or you "feel" that something different is going to happen?
That's how "investors" lose their precious capital.
Cylces are not "intact".
We had for the first time an ATH before the halving. The bear market started earlier than expected (in October).
A MINOR difference of one or two months does NOT make the Cycle broken. I would be the first person to say that the Cycle is broken IF the bear market continues throughout Q2/Q3 2027, OR if a surge to another All Time High happens this year.
In the current state of the Cycle, we might see the actual bottom in October or November.
That is a minor difference looking backwards.
If you are expecting the price to continue to grow for 4 more months and it collapses before that, you lose money. That is what happened last cycle
We have a saying in Brazil for this:
All the winning numbers of a winning lottery ticket looks easy on Monday
I'm not actually sure what "narrative" you're trying to tell me. But you do you. Because from looking at this zoomed out chart, it FACTUALLY shows that Bitcoin's Four-Year-Cycle is still intact.
It's NOT even debatable.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
If we boil it down to a binary reality. And we do not define the parameters of the cycle too tightly.
But it is seemingly changing. At least amplitude. And we do not really have enough data for THIS cycle to be conclusive IMHO. Not to mention that the sample size for the whole thing is 3.75.
Would you agree that for the cycle to be still valid we will need a bigger capitulation than we have seen so far? Your image does not show that red box.
I HAVE to admit I am quite surprised it has seemingly held on this long. I thought the institutional analysts would have it figured out and somehow counter trade it which would cause it to begin to disappear.
I also would think the effects of institutional shenanigans would overshadow anything the actual cycle forces could muster. And indeed that may be part of what is damping the amplitude...
