bustabit – The original crash game

[higghigghigg]

Within a month I’ve been trying to develop a strategy for earning money on BaB, but nothing good has come of it. It turns out to make an algorithm that can work 5 hours bringing a plus, then 5 hours nothing, and then go to minus, this is the best script I have made. If anyone knows the grail, give a hint where to dig.

Invest in the site's bankroll or start your own site if you have the means, i.e. stop gambling, these are your moneymaking grails.

In fact I'm already close to finding the Grail, the answer to how to play lies on the surface, just no one is looking for easy ways and come up with something more complex, such as strategies with averages and medians. You can start the game after the crash below 1.13x. Judging by the history, trains below 1.27x are quite rare; you can earn bits in between this trains. Immediately after the crash 1.13, start the game with a doubling and Cashout at 1.27x.

my god man, what part of random don't you understand? there are no strategies.

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[FanEagle]

Yeah, some websites really do not need a curacao license at all if you ask me, sure in order to save themselves from legal stuff they do have some license but consider this for a moment, do you really trust curacao licensing platform or do you trust devans more?

I personally trust RHavar and Devans more than I trust whoever is giving licenses to these casinos, I am sure there has been a ton of casinos with curacao licenses that was given to them by some idiot and then those casinos actually scammed people, which means they are not really a proof that curacao is trustworthy or enough.

However when you look at devans and Rhavar they are actually more trustworthy to me than Trump coming up and saying "this website is trustworthy" that is actually a warning that it is not trustworthy, so I trust these guys more than I trust president of USA.

[Battareus]

Within a month I’ve been trying to develop a strategy for earning money on BaB, but nothing good has come of it. It turns out to make an algorithm that can work 5 hours bringing a plus, then 5 hours nothing, and then go to minus, this is the best script I have made. If anyone knows the grail, give a hint where to dig.

Invest in the site's bankroll or start your own site if you have the means, i.e. stop gambling, these are your moneymaking grails.

In fact I'm already close to finding the Grail, the answer to how to play lies on the surface, just no one is looking for easy ways and come up with something more complex, such as strategies with averages and medians. You can start the game after the crash below 1.13x. Judging by the history, trains below 1.27x are quite rare; you can earn bits in between this trains. Immediately after the crash 1.13, start the game with a doubling and Cashout at 1.27x.

my god man, what part of random don't you understand? there are no strategies.

The whole world is a set of systematic randomness. 2 people in one city cannot go crazy and go jump from the roof. More precisely the probability of such event is extremely small. We don’t see 5 times in a row bust at 1x, (I saw 3) just as we don’t see 10 times in a row at 10x, we can build an algorithm that tracks a sequence of rare events after which will start the game.

[BoXXoB]

Within a month I’ve been trying to develop a strategy for earning money on BaB, but nothing good has come of it. It turns out to make an algorithm that can work 5 hours bringing a plus, then 5 hours nothing, and then go to minus, this is the best script I have made. If anyone knows the grail, give a hint where to dig.

Invest in the site's bankroll or start your own site if you have the means, i.e. stop gambling, these are your moneymaking grails.

In fact I'm already close to finding the Grail, the answer to how to play lies on the surface, just no one is looking for easy ways and come up with something more complex, such as strategies with averages and medians. You can start the game after the crash below 1.13x. Judging by the history, trains below 1.27x are quite rare; you can earn bits in between this trains. Immediately after the crash 1.13, start the game with a doubling and Cashout at 1.27x.

my god man, what part of random don't you understand? there are no strategies.

The whole world is a set of systematic randomness. 2 people in one city cannot go crazy and go jump from the roof. More precisely the probability of such event is extremely small. We don’t see 5 times in a row bust at 1x, (I saw 3) just as we don’t see 10 times in a row at 10x, we can build an algorithm that tracks a sequence of rare events after which will start the game.

Your logic is incorrect. However much you may believe it's possible to predict when an outcome (in an independent event) is the most likely, it isn't. Each round of the game, the probability of an event remains the same. The event could be for example that the game crashes at 2x. Probability of this event is 49.5% for each round. You cannot take previous events into calculation as each round is independent from the previous rounds. You can calculate that the probability of an event after 999 rounds could be 99.99% but if the next round is independent from the 999 other rounds, there's no certainty that the event happens in the 1000th round.

EDIT: Added emphasis that this applies for independent events

[GamblingSiteFinder]

Your logic is incorrect. However much you may believe it's possible to predict when an outcome (in an independent event) is the most likely, it isn't. Each round of the game, the probability of an event remains the same. The event could be for example that the game crashes at 2x. Probability of this event is 49.5% for each round. You cannot take previous events into calculation as each round is independent from the previous rounds. You can calculate that the probability of an event after 999 rounds could be 99.99% but if the next round is independent from the 999 other rounds, there's no certainty that the event happens in the 1000th round.

Simply put, previous outcomes don't help predict future results. Every round's outcome is 100% independent from each previous round.

[BoXXoB]

Your logic is incorrect. However much you may believe it's possible to predict when an outcome (in an independent event) is the most likely, it isn't. Each round of the game, the probability of an event remains the same. The event could be for example that the game crashes at 2x. Probability of this event is 49.5% for each round. You cannot take previous events into calculation as each round is independent from the previous rounds. You can calculate that the probability of an event after 999 rounds could be 99.99% but if the next round is independent from the 999 other rounds, there's no certainty that the event happens in the 1000th round.

Simply put, previous outcomes don't help predict future results. Every round's outcome is 100% independent from each previous round.

Yep. Most often no matter how it's explained, people believe what they want to believe though

[devans]

Just out of curiosity, is the Crash game on Stake under licence from Bustabit or is that a different code altogether?

I believe that Stake's crash game is custom-built and doesn't share any code with bustabit.

[justdimin]

The whole world is a set of systematic randomness. 2 people in one city cannot go crazy and go jump from the roof. More precisely the probability of such event is extremely small. We don’t see 5 times in a row bust at 1x, (I saw 3) just as we don’t see 10 times in a row at 10x, we can build an algorithm that tracks a sequence of rare events after which will start the game.

Don't get me wrong there are still possibilities and there are rare instances, so yes you are right that when you build a strategy you feel like you are doing it based on what is rare and what is not rare. Yet what you are forgetting is that the game CAN go 1000x twice in a row, the game CAN go 1.13 10 times in a row, just because it is rare doesn't mean it is impossible, the word "impossible" here is not used figuratively but literally, it is literally possible to make insane moves.

Now of course, you can make more money by chasing the rare events because they are rare so you would lose "rarely" but that doesn't mean it won't happen. Which means you will make a profit for a long time and hit a bad luck couple times in a row and lose all your money, the only difference between you and someone who lost all his money on first try would be the time you guys spent.

[GamblingSiteFinder]

PredictableLegacy now has a Twitter and Twitch account.

Twitter: @PredictableLeg

Twitch: @PredictableGames

Aaand his Twitter was already hacked. Yikes.

[Battareus]

The whole world is a set of systematic randomness. 2 people in one city cannot go crazy and go jump from the roof. More precisely the probability of such event is extremely small. We don’t see 5 times in a row bust at 1x, (I saw 3) just as we don’t see 10 times in a row at 10x, we can build an algorithm that tracks a sequence of rare events after which will start the game.

Don't get me wrong there are still possibilities and there are rare instances, so yes you are right that when you build a strategy you feel like you are doing it based on what is rare and what is not rare. Yet what you are forgetting is that the game CAN go 1000x twice in a row, the game CAN go 1.13 10 times in a row, just because it is rare doesn't mean it is impossible, the word "impossible" here is not used figuratively but literally, it is literally possible to make insane moves.

Now of course, you can make more money by chasing the rare events because they are rare so you would lose "rarely" but that doesn't mean it won't happen. Which means you will make a profit for a long time and hit a bad luck couple times in a row and lose all your money, the only difference between you and someone who lost all his money on first try would be the time you guys spent.

For rare events is made a reset to the initial bet. Doubling does not go on forever, the loss after the last unsuccessful bet is overlaps by subsequent successful ones which will go after the reset. There is a certain balance in the system of doubling bets, at some moment it ceases to work in plus and begins to increase the loss in progression.

[JollyGood]

Just out of curiosity, is the Crash game on Stake under licence from Bustabit or is that a different code altogether?

I believe that Stake's crash game is custom-built and doesn't share any code with bustabit.

Thank you for the reply. I have to say it seems very close to the original as far as the look goes.

Do you have any plans for expansion in to other websites to add to the portfolio or expanding the range on either website to give it a Stake type of multi-gaming feel? Or are current plans just to keep things are they are and concentrate on operating both websites?

[GSpgh]

For rare events is made a reset to the initial bet. Doubling does not go on forever, the loss after the last unsuccessful bet is overlaps by subsequent successful ones which will go after the reset. There is a certain balance in the system of doubling bets, at some moment it ceases to work in plus and begins to increase the loss in progression.

Youre not the first one to come up with a variation of martingale that you think beats the house. But even if you had unlimited funds you still can't do it. You will always lose because of house edge and max bet size. You should create a simulation and test your strategy on millions of random crashes.

[fullhdpixel]

For rare events is made a reset to the initial bet. Doubling does not go on forever, the loss after the last unsuccessful bet is overlaps by subsequent successful ones which will go after the reset. There is a certain balance in the system of doubling bets, at some moment it ceases to work in plus and begins to increase the loss in progression.

What people also sometimes forget that each bet is actually individually separated. So, even tho it looks like there is a small chance of x1 happening twice in a row it is also as possible as anything else. There is literally a 50% chance of being x1 on each bet and not being x1 each bet. There is a gamblers fallacy that looking at odds you go and say if it happened once it is rare that it happens again but those two bets have equal chances of being x1.

I can understand why people think it is rare and I do see it rare too but it is actually not, both those bets have the same amount of chance of being x1 and have nothing to do with being back to back. Same goes for good ones too, there is a chance of x10 happening twice in a row too, so don't look at it only from the bad side.

[Lakai01]

For rare events is made a reset to the initial bet. Doubling does not go on forever, the loss after the last unsuccessful bet is overlaps by subsequent successful ones which will go after the reset. There is a certain balance in the system of doubling bets, at some moment it ceases to work in plus and begins to increase the loss in progression.

Youre not the first one to come up with a variation of martingale that you think beats the house. But even if you had unlimited funds you still can't do it. You will always lose because of house edge and max bet size. You should create a simulation and test your strategy on millions of random crashes.

Without wanting to repeat myself I dont think there is any strategy which works (in the long run) and is able to beat the house. If such a strategy would exists it would have been banned in no matter of time.
Martingale (or any variation of it) works in a perfect world where you have no house edge, unlimited funds and no max bet. In the real world it makes you bankrupt in no matter of time when you have a loss streak.

[RivAngE]

If heat.gg is not making a provably fair one (they literally stated themselves) then there is no point on playing there, it all comes down to trusting the website and why would I, I wouldn't mind playing there with provably fair games, I have nothing against anyone in the crypto world but if it is not provably fair then I am not going to really risk it.

Also, you are definitely right if there was a way to provide hash myself I wouldn't play there neither because it is way too much work to put for just a simple RPS game, if there is a way to make RPS provably fair without too much work (basically just clicking) then I would love to play there, if there is nothing well I am not playing RPS right now so I would just continue to do that until someone figures it out.

I'd rather refrain from advertising the site on devans thread, however we do have two other modes (Jackpot & Coinflip) Which are 100% Provably fair with unmined hashes from EOS blocks determining the winner.
There's a lot of complications when designing a provably fair system for RPS that's both user friendly and safe.
Like I said above, there's a way to do it however it introduces a huge window for user error and user experience is thrown out, as well as the additional learning curve of the play-style.
You can make RPS provably fair if it were house based i.e house creates games, however I feel this also takes away the unique feel of it as RPS traditionally is more known for not being a game of complete sheer randomness, and there's some minor strategies you can employ such as getting in your opponents head, conversely you could just randomly generate your choice.
Playing against the house basically just turns it into any other dice game / coinflip, where the outcome is you either double your money, draw, or break even.

That's a good explanation. I see it doesn't always make sense to go with provably fair when making a game, sometimes the benefits are fewer than the issues which this creates.

[Battareus]

For rare events is made a reset to the initial bet. Doubling does not go on forever, the loss after the last unsuccessful bet is overlaps by subsequent successful ones which will go after the reset. There is a certain balance in the system of doubling bets, at some moment it ceases to work in plus and begins to increase the loss in progression.

Youre not the first one to come up with a variation of martingale that you think beats the house. But even if you had unlimited funds you still can't do it. You will always lose because of house edge and max bet size. You should create a simulation and test your strategy on millions of random crashes.

Without wanting to repeat myself I dont think there is any strategy which works (in the long run) and is able to beat the house. If such a strategy would exists it would have been banned in no matter of time.
Martingale (or any variation of it) works in a perfect world where you have no house edge, unlimited funds and no max bet. In the real world it makes you bankrupt in no matter of time when you have a loss streak.

Why are you both talking about the limit on funds and the maximum bet when I said that there is a reset to the initial? You can repeat it 100 times "there is no pattern, there is nothing except random" or something else, all this from the reluctance to think.

[Lakai01]

Why are you both talking about the limit on funds and the maximum bet when I said that there is a reset to the initial? You can repeat it 100 times "there is no pattern, there is nothing except random" or something else, all this from the reluctance to think.

Because I think resetting is even worse than classic Martingale.
Why? Because as soon as you do this you set your (probably huge) loss in concrete. Martingale tries to recovery quickly from losses, thats why you double your investment after a loss. If you step out after a loss streak and start over your funds are definitly gone and you will need a lot of time to recover.
Do you have any long time experiences with your resetting strategy? Would be very nice to see some numbers

[Battareus]

Why are you both talking about the limit on funds and the maximum bet when I said that there is a reset to the initial? You can repeat it 100 times "there is no pattern, there is nothing except random" or something else, all this from the reluctance to think.

Because I think resetting is even worse than classic Martingale.
Why? Because as soon as you do this you set your (probably huge) loss in concrete. Martingale tries to recovery quickly from losses, thats why you double your investment after a loss. If you step out after a loss streak and start over your funds are definitly gone and you will need a lot of time to recover.
Do you have any long time experiences with your resetting strategy? Would be very nice to see some numbers

Not a problem. I will show my statistics soon maybe in a week (or won’t show if I get rich). I do reset to the initial bet after 10 steps. Until the algorithm loss 492 bits after unsuccessful 10 steps it manages to earn about 1000+ bits. I’m not sure that for a long time this is a win-win option so I have to change something all the time. One way or another, the yield chart goes up. I am sure that I will find the pattern that I will share with good people.

[Battareus]

How is it possible that the game crashes below my cash-out value at 4x 2 times in a row exactly until the script stops doubling the bet?

[GamblingSiteFinder]

How is it possible that the game crashes below my cash-out value at 4x 2 times in a row exactly until the script stops doubling the bet?

That's just some rotten luck my friend, sorry. I don't believe BaB is trying to scam you and your 74bits.