[HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (1GH/S per Unit)

[st4nl3y]

One more try on possible future valuation. I will use different approach - comparison with peers.
At the beginning I want to say that I had some trouble to find really comparable and publicly listed operations. For example there are several mining operations listed on Havelock - COG, HMF, KCIM - but each of them seems to be different in a meaningful way from Peta. HMF and KCIM are much, much smaller (by a factor of 20-40). In the case of COG it seems that the person who runs it does a lot of things that lead to a loss of credibility - which I hope won't be the case of Peta.

There are, of course, operations of 'hosting' and 'mining contract' type - but these having completely different model does not fix our purpose.

To chose peers I started with the following assumption: Peta has a good chance to be perceived by the market as a high profile operation. So I searched for listed operations with very good opinion.
I also searched for ventures with reinvestment strategy - this eliminates for example Picostocs' 500TH.
Stellar reputation and reinvestment requirements left me with: GMP (Cryptostocks), HMF (Havelock) and KCIM (Havelock). All of them much smaller but having good reputation and similar model.
To quantify this comparison I will use the price of Ghs we pay when buying shares. All ventures wait for new 28nm equipment and expect jump in hash power by March 2014.
Why all three could give a hint of FUTURE valuation of PETA? - 1) all three didn't sell their equipment in November 2013 so they have been paying dividends all the time. Which puts them well into the frame of running operation with reinvestment 2) their reputation is already very well established and the market sees practically no operational risk.

Comparison:

GMP - 0,09btc/Ghs
KCIM - 0,065btc/Ghs
HMF - 0,085btc/Ghs

PETA just after deployment: 240 -340Th, 80675 shares,  2,88-3,45 Ghs/share which leads to a price in the range of 0,185-0,32.

Further into the future?
1) Market valuation per Ghs will most probably decline in time (consequence of rising difficulty)
2) Smartness of reinvestment enters in full importance - CryptX's simulations show that Ghs/share could be well above 10 at the end of the year.

Please, don't treat this estimation too seriously. It's just a shot. And there are a lot of IF's   




   

very nice valuation but in your calculation you forgot about bdd (B.MINE) on havelock which is a 5gh/s mining bond, priced at 0.067 per unit, way below ipo price
 

[eyecoins]

New workers coming up as we speak!

http://eligius.st/~wizkid057/newstats/userstats.php/1PETAmNrgdzx3FwzJPNuhx18JVKdGtwWt6

[mikemikemike]

One more try on possible future valuation. I will use different approach - comparison with peers.
At the beginning I want to say that I had some trouble to find really comparable and publicly listed operations. For example there are several mining operations listed on Havelock - COG, HMF, KCIM - but each of them seems to be different in a meaningful way from Peta. HMF and KCIM are much, much smaller (by a factor of 20-40). In the case of COG it seems that the person who runs it does a lot of things that lead to a loss of credibility - which I hope won't be the case of Peta.

There are, of course, operations of 'hosting' and 'mining contract' type - but these having completely different model does not fix our purpose.

To chose peers I started with the following assumption: Peta has a good chance to be perceived by the market as a high profile operation. So I searched for listed operations with very good opinion.
I also searched for ventures with reinvestment strategy - this eliminates for example Picostocs' 500TH.
Stellar reputation and reinvestment requirements left me with: GMP (Cryptostocks), HMF (Havelock) and KCIM (Havelock). All of them much smaller but having good reputation and similar model.
To quantify this comparison I will use the price of Ghs we pay when buying shares. All ventures wait for new 28nm equipment and expect jump in hash power by March 2014.
Why all three could give a hint of FUTURE valuation of PETA? - 1) all three didn't sell their equipment in November 2013 so they have been paying dividends all the time. Which puts them well into the frame of running operation with reinvestment 2) their reputation is already very well established and the market sees practically no operational risk.

Comparison:

GMP - 0,09btc/Ghs
KCIM - 0,065btc/Ghs
HMF - 0,085btc/Ghs

PETA just after deployment: 240 -340Th, 80675 shares,  2,88-3,45 Ghs/share which leads to a price in the range of 0,185-0,32.

Further into the future?
1) Market valuation per Ghs will most probably decline in time (consequence of rising difficulty)
2) Smartness of reinvestment enters in full importance - CryptX's simulations show that Ghs/share could be well above 10 at the end of the year.

Please, don't treat this estimation too seriously. It's just a shot. And there are a lot of IF's    




  

very nice valuation but in your calculation you forgot about bdd (B.MINE) on havelock which is a 5gh/s mining bond, priced at 0.067 per unit, way below ipo price
 

B.MINE is a derivative, not an asset

[trek27]

One more try on possible future valuation. I will use different approach - comparison with peers.
At the beginning I want to say that I had some trouble to find really comparable and publicly listed operations. For example there are several mining operations listed on Havelock - COG, HMF, KCIM - but each of them seems to be different in a meaningful way from Peta. HMF and KCIM are much, much smaller (by a factor of 20-40). In the case of COG it seems that the person who runs it does a lot of things that lead to a loss of credibility - which I hope won't be the case of Peta.

There are, of course, operations of 'hosting' and 'mining contract' type - but these having completely different model does not fix our purpose.

To chose peers I started with the following assumption: Peta has a good chance to be perceived by the market as a high profile operation. So I searched for listed operations with very good opinion.
I also searched for ventures with reinvestment strategy - this eliminates for example Picostocs' 500TH.
Stellar reputation and reinvestment requirements left me with: GMP (Cryptostocks), HMF (Havelock) and KCIM (Havelock). All of them much smaller but having good reputation and similar model.
To quantify this comparison I will use the price of Ghs we pay when buying shares. All ventures wait for new 28nm equipment and expect jump in hash power by March 2014.
Why all three could give a hint of FUTURE valuation of PETA? - 1) all three didn't sell their equipment in November 2013 so they have been paying dividends all the time. Which puts them well into the frame of running operation with reinvestment 2) their reputation is already very well established and the market sees practically no operational risk.

Comparison:

GMP - 0,09btc/Ghs
KCIM - 0,065btc/Ghs
HMF - 0,085btc/Ghs

PETA just after deployment: 240 -340Th, 80675 shares,  2,88-3,45 Ghs/share which leads to a price in the range of 0,185-0,32.

These results don't diverge much from (partial quote):

If we use that yield to be 33% of the share price, that gives 0.27 btc/share
25% -- 0.36 btc/share

And are more optimistic than those (partial quote):

If they base dividends on the 80674 outstanding shares, then the EPS becomes 0.02809btc

Further into the future?
1) Market valuation per Ghs will most probably decline in time (consequence of rising difficulty)
2) Smartness of reinvestment enters in full importance - CryptX's simulations show that Ghs/share could be well above 10 at the end of the year.

Please, don't treat this estimation too seriously. It's just a shot. And there are a lot of IF's   




   

very nice valuation but in your calculation you forgot about bdd (B.MINE) on havelock which is a 5gh/s mining bond, priced at 0.067 per unit, way below ipo price
 

B.MINE is a derivative, not an asset

Yes, it shouldn't be taken into consideration.
B.MINE price reflects expected dividend from 5Ghs but only during very limited time frame. What's more there are certain rules that may provoke it's early expiration in case of stagnating or falling difficulty - exactly when you would expect rising dividend. Additionally the time frame of its dividend is impacted by payouts to B.SELL. Anyone considering purchase of B.MINE should read very carefully its documentation.   

[qwertyqwerty]

even more workers being added.  great to see cryptx hard at work in background

[st4nl3y]

One more try on possible future valuation. I will use different approach - comparison with peers.
At the beginning I want to say that I had some trouble to find really comparable and publicly listed operations. For example there are several mining operations listed on Havelock - COG, HMF, KCIM - but each of them seems to be different in a meaningful way from Peta. HMF and KCIM are much, much smaller (by a factor of 20-40). In the case of COG it seems that the person who runs it does a lot of things that lead to a loss of credibility - which I hope won't be the case of Peta.

There are, of course, operations of 'hosting' and 'mining contract' type - but these having completely different model does not fix our purpose.

To chose peers I started with the following assumption: Peta has a good chance to be perceived by the market as a high profile operation. So I searched for listed operations with very good opinion.
I also searched for ventures with reinvestment strategy - this eliminates for example Picostocs' 500TH.
Stellar reputation and reinvestment requirements left me with: GMP (Cryptostocks), HMF (Havelock) and KCIM (Havelock). All of them much smaller but having good reputation and similar model.
To quantify this comparison I will use the price of Ghs we pay when buying shares. All ventures wait for new 28nm equipment and expect jump in hash power by March 2014.
Why all three could give a hint of FUTURE valuation of PETA? - 1) all three didn't sell their equipment in November 2013 so they have been paying dividends all the time. Which puts them well into the frame of running operation with reinvestment 2) their reputation is already very well established and the market sees practically no operational risk.

Comparison:

GMP - 0,09btc/Ghs
KCIM - 0,065btc/Ghs
HMF - 0,085btc/Ghs

PETA just after deployment: 240 -340Th, 80675 shares,  2,88-3,45 Ghs/share which leads to a price in the range of 0,185-0,32.

Further into the future?
1) Market valuation per Ghs will most probably decline in time (consequence of rising difficulty)
2) Smartness of reinvestment enters in full importance - CryptX's simulations show that Ghs/share could be well above 10 at the end of the year.

Please, don't treat this estimation too seriously. It's just a shot. And there are a lot of IF's   




   

very nice valuation but in your calculation you forgot about bdd (B.MINE) on havelock which is a 5gh/s mining bond, priced at 0.067 per unit, way below ipo price
 

B.MINE is a derivative, not an asset

Yes, it shouldn't be taken into consideration.
B.MINE price reflects expected dividend from 5Ghs but only during very limited time frame. What's more there are certain rules that may provoke it's early expiration in case of stagnating or falling difficulty - exactly when you would expect rising dividend. Additionally the time frame of its dividend is impacted by payouts to B.SELL. Anyone considering purchase of B.MINE should read very carefully its documentation.   

yes, that is right, i stand corrected. didn't read properly or extensive enough

[hephaist0s]

We just jumped to 18Th/s.

[mikemikemike]

We just jumped to 18Th/s.

your sooooo two hours ago - breaking 20Th/s now

[rdyoung]

Your projections are only for 220th mine, without any reinvestment going on?
Then yes, we can put that numbers in any calc, and get around 2200 btc.

http://btcinvest.net/en/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=3129573175&dcosts=0&diff_mincrease=20&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=220000000&diff_mincreasedecrease=0.5&btcusd=600&dpowcon=0.0&btcusd_mincrease=1&pcost=0.0&calcweeks=27&dleadtime=1&action=calc

Yes, it is for reinvestment. I will share my spreadsheet in a minute.
My #s are also very conservative, I don't think the 20% will hold and I know that the $/GHS will drop over time.

[rdyoung]

I taught I'm missing something in your post, rdyoung, so I read it again. You are calculating in reinvestments, at $6/gh, and still numbers do not differ much from the case with no reinvestment.
That's telling me that at continous 20% network increase, and $6/gh for new hardware, it has no big effect on earnings. Petamine will be falling too much behind total network hashrate too fast.
Hope is, that network will not increase at 20% for long time, and hardware price will be lower.

Exactly. I was very conservative on my calcs. I will share my spreadsheet in a minute and maybe someone can help me improve it.
Remember that the of GHS for reinvestment is based on the usd/btc. I have it set at 600$, but if it goes up, the # of GHS to purchase goes up.

[rdyoung]

Here is the spreadsheet.
Someone else created, I have simply modded it for the reinvestment.
http://goo.gl/cmkd5u

[qwertyqwerty]

Here is the spreadsheet.
Someone else created, I have simply modded it for the reinvestment.
http://goo.gl/cmkd5u

Good work.You can also consider other external factors unrelated somewhat to performance of the mine. for instance invisible hand of the market decides on a annual yield they are happy with and shareprice roughly correlates with that. as dividend fluctuates, so does shareprice.

AsicMiner right now is down to a shocking ~3.6% yield. who wants to wait 25+ years to recover their savings in a bitcoin mining asset!!!  it's totally absolutely crazy when you can earn similar amount with fiat in a high interest savings account. Shareholders of AM anticipate increased dividends soon but even historically it has settled on 20% or so and friedcat talk about single digit returns. If you take things like this into account, the shareprice can be radically different

Also important is sourcing re-investment hardware with bulk deals from other suppliers, potential of own assembly, own optimisations of PCB's, tweaking of re-investment %'s and so on.

All of these are just 'if's though  

[rdyoung]

Here is the spreadsheet.
Someone else created, I have simply modded it for the reinvestment.
http://goo.gl/cmkd5u

Good work.You can also consider other external factors unrelated somewhat to performance of the mine. for instance invisible hand of the market decides on a annual yield they are happy with and shareprice roughly correlates with that. as dividend fluctuates, so does shareprice.

AsicMiner right now is down to a shocking ~3.6% yield. who wants to wait 25+ years to recover their savings in a bitcoin mining asset!!!  it's totally absolutely crazy when you can earn similar amount with fiat in a high interest savings account. Shareholders of AM anticipate increased dividends soon but even historically it has settled on 20% or so and friedcat talk about single digit returns. If you take things like this into account, the shareprice can be radically different

Also important is sourcing re-investment hardware with bulk deals from other suppliers, potential of own assembly, own optimisations of PCB's, tweaking of re-investment %'s and so on.

All of these are just 'if's though  

Thanks
IMO though, peta is starkly different from AM. The dividends from AM used to be based on mining + their market share, now both are just ghosts of the network. Yes, AM is likely to regain some market share from this new batch of 55nm chips.
Petamine on the otherhand is NOT a producer of chips, they will be purchasing from suppliers, and the dividends will be solely based on mining.
If someone who knows could give me an estimated cost for PCBs, we can work that into the cost. although we don't know how many chips they will be packing onto each board.

[Usman056]

Can anyone confirm the number of shares? also is anyone able to confirm the gh/s per share? according to the data sheet that was posted, it doesn't seem like ROI will happen based on 2447.260BTC/80675share = 0.0303348497 over a year and a half time. But someone forgot to account for the price drop of GH/S over time. if we were to jump on ship with AsicMiner and bulk oder their next gen products at .49-1$ per chip and then contract another company to produce the miner itself, we could come out ahead and make ROI within by july of next year. But i'm not sure what manufacturing units would bring the cost per chip up to.

But on the upside at least we're hashing, its just a matter of investing the right amount. 

[ujka]

The number of outstanding shares is shown on havelock - 80675.
Each share represent 1/80675 of petamine hashrate. Actual hashrate per share will change over time, acording to reinvestment. At the start, each share represents 2.88 GHash/s. Ofc, petamine is not at that speed yet, but we are all hoping to be there. Sometime soon.

That spreadsheet is said to be a very pesimistic projection - btc stays at $600, new hardware at $6/gh, and constant network increase of 20% per retarget period (11 days).

[rdyoung]

Can anyone confirm the number of shares? also is anyone able to confirm the gh/s per share? according to the data sheet that was posted, it doesn't seem like ROI will happen based on 2447.260BTC/80675share = 0.0303348497 over a year and a half time. But someone forgot to account for the price drop of GH/S over time. if we were to jump on ship with AsicMiner and bulk oder their next gen products at .49-1$ per chip and then contract another company to produce the miner itself, we could come out ahead and make ROI within by july of next year. But i'm not sure what manufacturing units would bring the cost per chip up to.

But on the upside at least we're hashing, its just a matter of investing the right amount.  

I am the one who posted the spreadsheet. I chose to do a fixed # forecast because I have no clue how much the drop in $/GHS is going to be or when. When you are forecasting for investment purposes its smart to be as worst case scenario as you can, you can also forecast for best case scenario, but getting #s for worst case helps keep you grounded and realistic as to the likely outcome.


They are working on software and PCBs to be used with bitmines A1 Chip, which I think at the moment is the smartest move. Yes, AMs chip is cheaper, but its also slower and lacks the overhead to overclock, its also bigger 55nm vs 28nm so you can fit fewer on a board.
Hopefully they wont be "manufacturing" anything, it will hopefully be chips on boards and submersed cooled. This way you can fit a lot more GHS/sqft than you can with the space taken up by u1/u2 housing.

[cryptx]

Can anyone confirm the number of shares? also is anyone able to confirm the gh/s per share? according to the data sheet that was posted, it doesn't seem like ROI will happen based on 2447.260BTC/80675share = 0.0303348497 over a year and a half time. But someone forgot to account for the price drop of GH/S over time. if we were to jump on ship with AsicMiner and bulk oder their next gen products at .49-1$ per chip and then contract another company to produce the miner itself, we could come out ahead and make ROI within by july of next year. But i'm not sure what manufacturing units would bring the cost per chip up to.

But on the upside at least we're hashing, its just a matter of investing the right amount.  

I realy appreciate the effort of making (altering) a datasheet to come up with a ROI projection.

But i'm afraid these settings makes no sense at all. For instance just look at the difficulty levels  . They exceed a Terrawatt in power usage...or at 4 cents per kwh a total cost of 350,400,000,000 dollar per year. This means an electricity cost of about 425 times the anual total mining revenue (3600*365*625$)....

EDIT: never use a % in difficulty increase; it's just wrong in so many ways...(20.000.000 TH/s has to be fabricated in 10 days  )

[ujka]

That is what you get by blindly applaying 20% increase every retarget period.
Some says that there will be more efficient chips. Ofc there will be, but not by that factor.

[BongaManollo]

@Cryptx, that's a tactic by rdyoung to get cheap shares.

It didn't work.

[rdyoung]

@Cryptx, that's a tactic by rdyoung to get cheap shares.

It didn't work.

Seriously
You think I did this to push shares down? I did this to flex and strengthen my sheet skills, years ago I could program a spreadsheet with my eyes closed, but its been awhile and my skills are a bit rusty. Next time I will make it a private sheet so I can avoid this crap.

If you go back and look at other EPS estimates to get PE ratio, they are close to what I came up with.
And as I have said I don't have enough information to get more accurate.
When I have the time I will try and add a decrease in difficulty jumps over time as well as an increase in usd/BTC.
Looking as longterm as the sheet does, using an average increase of say 10% would provide a more accurate forecast.

NOTE: I never said this spreadsheet was accurate. What it does is help provide a window into what could be.
Instead of looking 1.5 years out, you can see what it will be like in a few months as the difficulty keeps increasing at the current rate.