I do not understand this fund at all, it seems that somebody made a mistake in the math somewhere. there is no way this fund can possibly worth 0.11 btc per share.
Let us walk through the math:
The network hashrate is 28,000 TH/s right now
The network hashrate was 17,500 TH/s exactly 1 month ago ( 1.6x network growth per month )
The network hashrate was 8,800 TH/s exactly 2 months ago ( 3.18x network growth, 80% per month )
The network hashrate was 702 TH/s exactly 6 months ago ( 40x network growth, 85% per month )
The network hashrate was 36 TH/s exactly 1 year ago ( 777x network growth, 75% per month )
For the rest of this post, i will assume that the network hashrate will grow at a constant rate of 80% per month. My reference point will be 1 jan, at which point the network hashrate was 9920 TH/s
Source:
https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate?timespan=60days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=1&address=If you don't believe my 80% number, reference this thread:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=387533.0 there are many others. One could argue about 60% or 85%, but for the rest of this post i'm just going to assume 80% growth per month.
The following table show the growth of the network hashrate according to my 80% projection. I have also added an column quoting the data from the google docs document from the first post. (
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjI5bgsiFJAidFdzOTk1aXl6cS1zNG1nck5OZjRBeXc&usp=drive_web#gid=0)
Since my data points (the first date of the month) do not fully match with the chosen dates in the google docs document, i pick the closest reference point.
| Month | | Projected Network |
hashrate (TH/s) | Network hashrate |
@ document | my projection / document |
| 1 (1 januari) | 9,920 | 11,000 | 0.90 |
| 2 (1 februari) | 17,856 | 19,000 | 0.94 |
| 3 | 32,140 | 26,500 | 1.21 |
| 4 | 57,853 | 36,000 | 1.61 |
| 5 | 104,136 | 46,500 | 2.24 |
| 6 | 187,445 | 57,000 | 3.29 |
| 7 | 337,401 | 69,000 | 4.89 |
| 8 | 607,322 | 81,000 | 7.50 |
| 9 | 1,093,180 | 97,000 | 11.27 |
| 10 | 1,967,724 | 109,000 | 18.05 |
| 11 | 3,541,903 | 121,000 | 29.27 |
| 12 (1 december) | 6,375,426 | 133,000 | 47.94 |
In my opinion, the projected hashrate in the google docs document seems like a whole load of shit. I'm sorry, but i can't put this nicer than it is. I went over my math multiple times, but i keep ending up at the same answer. There is no way the total network hashrate at december this year can be 'only' 133.000 TH/s. Even according to the most generous projection of 60% network growth per month, a network hashrate of 133,000 TH/s can be expected mid-june.
For the rest of this post, we will be also assuming that 10 blocks will be mined per hour. Totaling 186,000 bitcoins per month for the entire network (31 days per month, assume zero fees). I will be also assuming that the mined bitcoins per month will be equal to (186000 / network hashrate * PETAMINE hashrate).
I believe that all information up to this point has been based on factual data or some numbers close to factual data. This is where it gets a bit shady.
Lets look at some fictive scenario's. Scenario #1 and #2 are far better than PETA-MINE's own forecasts (
their website estimates that 250TH/s will be deployed in week 13-15, which is begin april).
Scenario 1: PETAMINE receives 700TH/s tomorow and will have everything up and running at 1 march. I think that this should happen given the current value of 0.11 BTC.
Scenario 2: PETAMINE receives 700TH/s of hashing power on 1 april
Scenario 3: PETAMINE received 700TH/s of hashing power on 1 may
Given scenario 1, PETAMINE will mine 7563 bitcoins in 2014 (not including those mined before the deployment of 700TH/s). Granting a total of 0.094 BTC per share before hosting costs and everything else.
Given scenario 2, PETAMINE will mine 4192 bitcoins in 2014 (not including those mined before the deployment of 700TH/s). Granting a total of 0.052 BTC per share before hosting costs and everything else.
Given scenario 3, PETAMINE will mine 2319 bitcoins in 2014 (not including those mined before the deployment of 700TH/s). Granting a total of 0.029 BTC per share before hosting costs and everything else.
Remember that these calcuations do not include hosting costs. According to the google docs document, the hosting costs over 2014 equal 1997 BTC in the 'old' forecast, and 3636 BTC in the 'new' forecast. So in scenario #3, PETAMINE will probably not make any profit to generate dividends from. In scenario #2, i wouldn't count on it either.
Whoever is investing in this fund is probably in it for the long haul, because i don't see how it can be worth 0.11 btc per share given their current business plan.
And by the way, if i modify your google docs document so that only the network hashrate forecast is changed, your numbers will enter the negatives in about 6 months from now. You should definitely reconsider your network hashrate forecast.
