Elvis Trout
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February 27, 2014, 11:10:57 AM |
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anyone noticed hashing as pretty much stopped? guessing they are changing some stuff over
hopefully adding new hardware, worried me too when I saw it haha!
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mikemikemike
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February 27, 2014, 11:17:54 AM |
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anyone noticed hashing as pretty much stopped? guessing they are changing some stuff over
hopefully adding new hardware, worried me too when I saw it haha! yea i think so - i saw it jump up to 75TH/s yesterday for a few minutes before jumping back down *fingers crossed* and here comes the panic sell *sigh*
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MonkeyBear68
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February 27, 2014, 11:51:55 AM |
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anyone noticed hashing as pretty much stopped? guessing they are changing some stuff over
hopefully adding new hardware, worried me too when I saw it haha! yea i think so - i saw it jump up to 75TH/s yesterday for a few minutes before jumping back down *fingers crossed* and here comes the panic sell *sigh* Hmmm. Now that you mention sell, there is a curious lack of depth on the Bid side of PETA on Havelock. Those claiming that shares are undervalued should have huge orders on the Bid side waiting to buy cheap shares. Put your money where your mouth is guys.
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ujka
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February 27, 2014, 12:00:00 PM |
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Same on the ask side - 1500 shares to be bought.
Noone expects price to go down. Second, to put a bid you have to have btc at havelock. I don't have any.
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Elvis Trout
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February 27, 2014, 12:00:18 PM |
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anyone noticed hashing as pretty much stopped? guessing they are changing some stuff over
hopefully adding new hardware, worried me too when I saw it haha! yea i think so - i saw it jump up to 75TH/s yesterday for a few minutes before jumping back down *fingers crossed* and here comes the panic sell *sigh* Hmmm. Now that you mention sell, there is a curious lack of depth on the Bid side of PETA on Havelock. Those claiming that shares are undervalued should have huge orders on the Bid side waiting to buy cheap shares. Put your money where your mouth is guys. I would, but I already put all my money in at IPO, if I get my next student loan before the price jumps peta will be getting most of that too.
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mikemikemike
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February 27, 2014, 12:03:22 PM |
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anyone noticed hashing as pretty much stopped? guessing they are changing some stuff over
hopefully adding new hardware, worried me too when I saw it haha! yea i think so - i saw it jump up to 75TH/s yesterday for a few minutes before jumping back down *fingers crossed* and here comes the panic sell *sigh* Hmmm. Now that you mention sell, there is a curious lack of depth on the Bid side of PETA on Havelock. Those claiming that shares are undervalued should have huge orders on the Bid side waiting to buy cheap shares. Put your money where your mouth is guys. I would, but I already put all my money in at IPO, if I get my next student loan before the price jumps peta will be getting most of that too. yea - im will elvis on this one - i put all my funds for this kind of operation in at IPO - im seriously considering liquidating a few of my ventures over the next couple of weeks to put in some more money as im an honest believer that the shares are ridiculously underpriced
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MonkeyBear68
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February 27, 2014, 12:19:08 PM |
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Same on the ask side - 1500 shares to be bought.
Only around 200 shares people are willing to buy on the Bid side. For something that is currently undervalued one would expect much more support on the Bid side as people try to get cheap shares. I believe if a healthy level of support was present on the Bid side, this would reassure investors and the price would go up.
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ujka
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February 27, 2014, 12:24:27 PM |
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Same on the ask side - 1500 shares to be bought.
Only around 200 shares people are willing to buy on the Bid side. For something that is currently undervalued one would expect much more support on the Bid side as people try to get cheap shares. I believe if a healthy level of support was present on the Bid side, this would reassure investors and the price would go up. in bitcoinworld, only thing that would reassure ppl is new hashing hardware beeing put online daily. Ofc, with steady divs.
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Elvis Trout
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February 27, 2014, 12:34:51 PM |
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Same on the ask side - 1500 shares to be bought.
Only around 200 shares people are willing to buy on the Bid side. For something that is currently undervalued one would expect much more support on the Bid side as people try to get cheap shares. I believe if a healthy level of support was present on the Bid side, this would reassure investors and the price would go up. in bitcoinworld, only thing that would reassure ppl is new hashing hardware beeing put online daily. Ofc, with steady divs. I think the point being made is that people in this thread believe that is going to happen and yet they are not buying the shares now before the price goes up. Myself I'm not too bothered about the share price. I'm not looking to sell any time soon, and if for some reason I really needed the btc my shares are more than double what I paid for them. I think the people worrying about the share price are people looking to sell, and that's fine too, just be patient, wait for all the gear to come online and the price will be very tasty for you
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mikemikemike
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February 27, 2014, 12:36:20 PM |
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Same on the ask side - 1500 shares to be bought.
Only around 200 shares people are willing to buy on the Bid side. For something that is currently undervalued one would expect much more support on the Bid side as people try to get cheap shares. I believe if a healthy level of support was present on the Bid side, this would reassure investors and the price would go up. in bitcoinworld, only thing that would reassure ppl is new hashing hardware beeing put online daily. Ofc, with steady divs. I think the point being made is that people in this thread believe that is going to happen and yet they are not buying the shares now before the price goes up. Myself I'm not too bothered about the share price. I'm not looking to sell any time soon, and if for some reason I really needed the btc my shares are more than double what I paid for them. I think the people worrying about the share price are people looking to sell, and that's fine too, just be patient, wait for all the gear to come online and the price will be very tasty for you i think the better question is, is there anyone whos a regular in this thread who isn't already heavily invested? i think not many
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Elvis Trout
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February 27, 2014, 12:39:24 PM |
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In other news, hashing is back to around 40TH/s, hopefully the rest will be back online soon too!
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spartan82
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February 27, 2014, 12:42:33 PM |
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Same on the ask side - 1500 shares to be bought.
Only around 200 shares people are willing to buy on the Bid side. For something that is currently undervalued one would expect much more support on the Bid side as people try to get cheap shares. I believe if a healthy level of support was present on the Bid side, this would reassure investors and the price would go up. in bitcoinworld, only thing that would reassure ppl is new hashing hardware beeing put online daily. Ofc, with steady divs. I think the point being made is that people in this thread believe that is going to happen and yet they are not buying the shares now before the price goes up. Myself I'm not too bothered about the share price. I'm not looking to sell any time soon, and if for some reason I really needed the btc my shares are more than double what I paid for them. I think the people worrying about the share price are people looking to sell, and that's fine too, just be patient, wait for all the gear to come online and the price will be very tasty for you I strongly believe myself that given the schedule of this mines hashing units to come online, these prices will only be tasty to those of us that bought shares during IPO. In saying that I do not believe that the share price will drop anywhere under 0.1btc so we can all sleep well.. Miners are back up now so no need to stress
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trek27
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February 27, 2014, 12:56:37 PM |
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anyone noticed hashing as pretty much stopped? guessing they are changing some stuff over
hopefully adding new hardware, worried me too when I saw it haha! yea i think so - i saw it jump up to 75TH/s yesterday for a few minutes before jumping back down *fingers crossed* and here comes the panic sell *sigh* With this type of behavior I rather suspect network connectivity problem. Though surely would prefer new miners
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Darkstone2
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February 27, 2014, 02:00:25 PM Last edit: February 27, 2014, 02:36:57 PM by Darkstone2 |
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Darkstone2, Google stock is worth $1220 each, do you know how much dividend they pay?
Apple stock is worth $517 each, do you know how much dividend they pay?
Facebook $69, how much in dividends?
No clue. But if i had a few thousand dollars, i would happily invest it in a fortune 500 company for 2% dividend per year. That is more than my current bank pays. But please don't compare fortune 500 companies to startups with significant risk involved. According to some randomly googled source, 3 out of 4 start-ups fail within a few years. I stopped reading at For the rest of this post, i will assume that the network hashrate will grow at a constant rate of 80% per month. So, the network hashrate in April will grow for 50'000 TH. 1'700 TH added per day? December ends with 11'500'000 TH. How much electricity is needed to run this? With chips at 28nm technology using ~1J/GH? Bitcoin has to be at $8000 by then, just to cover electricity cost.(at $0.1 per kwh) Yet, the network hashrate has grown by 75% per month over the last year. And i believe that there is no good reason why the growth rate this year will be lower. Remember that others have already done far more extensive research than i have about the network hash rate growth: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=387533.0I think we can all agree that hash rate will eventually level off at a certain point, based on the most efficient mining chip available at the time and what is considered to be an adequate return. Based on the charts in the links below, I think it would be foolish to think it will level off within the next 3 months as many new chips are being delivered to many customers.
Lets agree to disagree then. People have said this for years, and the current growth is still exponential. And it will continue to do so as long as the bitcoin price keeps growing exponential. All the above numbers assume a 20% difficulty increase each period (12 days), and also each difficulty change will occur 12 days apart. Keep in mind that we will not be at full power till the end of May. The above numbers from Feb 28 till Jun 04 sum to 5220 BTC. Since we are not at full power till the end of May, I would say we will mine half of that which is 2610 BTC. Also accounting for reinvestment we would end up with 2610 * 0.65 = 1696.5 BTC for dividends. 1696.5 / 100,000 shares = 0.016965 BTC per share. If you bought a share at 0.05 you will have paid for roughly 1/3 of it by the beginning of June. In the short term, i tend agree with you. But in the long term your business model is unsustainable. The growth numbers from the google docs document are far from what we can expect based on historical data.
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karol
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February 27, 2014, 02:10:39 PM |
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Guys, as it was said many times - please don't speculate here about Peta shares price.
Here is the place for it:https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=486598.0
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trek27
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February 27, 2014, 02:40:55 PM |
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altoidmintz
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After Economics: Learning is just the first step.
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February 27, 2014, 03:04:10 PM |
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I stopped reading at For the rest of this post, i will assume that the network hashrate will grow at a constant rate of 80% per month. +1 I would expect a div > or = .0002 this week. I always prefer to take a strong conservative expectation.
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Elvis Trout
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February 27, 2014, 03:17:58 PM |
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I stopped reading at For the rest of this post, i will assume that the network hashrate will grow at a constant rate of 80% per month. +1 I would expect a div > or = .0002 this week. I always prefer to take a strong conservative expectation. I'd say nearer .0005 But conservative estimates avoid disappointment eh?
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eiprol
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bitarchitect
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February 27, 2014, 04:50:24 PM |
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I stopped reading at For the rest of this post, i will assume that the network hashrate will grow at a constant rate of 80% per month. +1 I would expect a div > or = .0002 this week. I always prefer to take a strong conservative expectation. I'd say nearer .0005 But conservative estimates avoid disappointment eh? I'd say around .0005 too, which would show a yield on havelock of ~25%, right? The thing is how is going to react the market to that %
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rdyoung
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February 27, 2014, 05:19:32 PM Last edit: February 27, 2014, 07:09:42 PM by rdyoung |
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Darkstone2, Google stock is worth $1220 each, do you know how much dividend they pay?
Apple stock is worth $517 each, do you know how much dividend they pay?
Facebook $69, how much in dividends?
No clue. But if i had a few thousand dollars, i would happily invest it in a fortune 500 company for 2% dividend per year. That is more than my current bank pays. But please don't compare fortune 500 companies to startups with significant risk involved. According to some randomly googled source, 3 out of 4 start-ups fail within a few years. I stopped reading at For the rest of this post, i will assume that the network hashrate will grow at a constant rate of 80% per month. So, the network hashrate in April will grow for 50'000 TH. 1'700 TH added per day? December ends with 11'500'000 TH. How much electricity is needed to run this? With chips at 28nm technology using ~1J/GH? Bitcoin has to be at $8000 by then, just to cover electricity cost.(at $0.1 per kwh) Yet, the network hashrate has grown by 75% per month over the last year. And i believe that there is no good reason why the growth rate this year will be lower. Remember that others have already done far more extensive research than i have about the network hash rate growth: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=387533.0I think we can all agree that hash rate will eventually level off at a certain point, based on the most efficient mining chip available at the time and what is considered to be an adequate return. Based on the charts in the links below, I think it would be foolish to think it will level off within the next 3 months as many new chips are being delivered to many customers.
Lets agree to disagree then. People have said this for years, and the current growth is still exponential. And it will continue to do so as long as the bitcoin price keeps growing exponential. All the above numbers assume a 20% difficulty increase each period (12 days), and also each difficulty change will occur 12 days apart. Keep in mind that we will not be at full power till the end of May. The above numbers from Feb 28 till Jun 04 sum to 5220 BTC. Since we are not at full power till the end of May, I would say we will mine half of that which is 2610 BTC. Also accounting for reinvestment we would end up with 2610 * 0.65 = 1696.5 BTC for dividends. 1696.5 / 100,000 shares = 0.016965 BTC per share. If you bought a share at 0.05 you will have paid for roughly 1/3 of it by the beginning of June. In the short term, i tend agree with you. But in the long term your business model is unsustainable. The growth numbers from the google docs document are far from what we can expect based on historical data. First off, I am not sure people know what exponential actually means. For something to grow exponentially its squaring, IE 2*2=4 4*4=16 For the network to grow exponentially 25phs would become 625phs. From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growthExponential growth occurs when the growth rate of the value of a mathematical function is proportional to the function's current value. Exponential decay occurs in the same way when the growth rate is negative. In the case of a discrete domain of definition with equal intervals it is also called geometric growth or geometric decay (the function values form a geometric progression). Yes, the average difficulty increase is +-20% every 12days. But you have to look at how ridiculous the #s start to look 4+ months out from where we are. As I have posted before, when we hit 100phs, 20phs need to be brought online in 12 days to keep the 20% average. Thats equivalent to 20,000 bitmine rigs, or 10,000 terraminers running at full spec. Considering that cointerra capped each round of preorders at about 1000/piece, just think on that for that a minute. I am not sure how to explain it mathematically, but the larger the # the more you need to have an impact on it. The only way I can see the current growth rate continuing as is past 150-200phs is if we see an untold # of new foundries stamping out chips and more companies producing hardware. Or there has been a few companies producing chips/hardware in silence and will eventually flood the market, but those still have to be sold and brought online either via end customers or new datacenters.
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