ftaiii
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March 02, 2017, 10:52:46 PM |
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If COIN is approved [25%] then GBTC will trade at a discount, If not [75%] then BTC will sell-off. So I'm guessing prudent investors are dumping GBTC to buy it back lower if COIN is not approved, or dumping GBTC and buying bitcoin direct to avoid the discount. <-- It makes sense to do the latter with part of your position as a hedge and that arbitrage will create the price discrepancy. I'm still trying to figure out how I want to trade it, either of the above options will generate a large capital gain tax burden if you bought much lower.
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mmortal03
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March 03, 2017, 08:39:25 AM |
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If COIN is approved [25%] then GBTC will trade at a discount Given that the underlying BTC represented by a GBTC share would still be worth just the same as any other such amount of BTC in such a scenario, I'm curious to know how much of a discount people think GBTC would trade at versus BTC, also given that COIN wouldn't be immediately available after approval. |
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notme
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March 03, 2017, 03:21:44 PM |
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If COIN is approved [25%] then GBTC will trade at a discount Given that the underlying BTC represented by a GBTC share would still be worth just the same as any other such amount of BTC in such a scenario, I'm curious to know how much of a discount people think GBTC would trade at versus BTC, also given that COIN wouldn't be immediately available after approval. They are worth less because they are guaranteed to decay due to the fund's fees. Each share started at 0.1 BTC, but is now 0.09336483 BTC. |
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ftaiii
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March 03, 2017, 09:36:50 PM |
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Yes, but that is not uncommon. The SPDR Gold ETF [ticker GLD] does the same, fee's imbedded into the price. The previous "premium" seems to have come from a supply demand issue [no other trust available]. If COIN gets approved then GBTC should have a discount going forward. If it doesn't get approved, perhaps the premium will return but on a lower notional price. I was an early investor in GBTC, I went that route because I didn't want to store keys [web based or in an offline wallet] and worry about the funds being hacked or lost. I also was buying on auction [through SecondMarket], so there were a lot of conveniences of using GBTC at the time which was a private trust that became listed later. But I agree, the decaying price due to high fee's is not ideal.
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mmortal03
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March 04, 2017, 02:47:19 AM |
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If COIN is approved [25%] then GBTC will trade at a discount Given that the underlying BTC represented by a GBTC share would still be worth just the same as any other such amount of BTC in such a scenario, I'm curious to know how much of a discount people think GBTC would trade at versus BTC, also given that COIN wouldn't be immediately available after approval. They are worth less because they are guaranteed to decay due to the fund's fees. Each share started at 0.1 BTC, but is now 0.09336483 BTC. That's a fair point, and I'm not saying you're wrong, but that's a long term decay that will occur very slowly relative to the BTC spot price, and I'm more concerned with what will happen in the near term given various ETF approvals. In my mind, that fee might even be adjusted to a lower percentage given the reality of the competition once COIN and/or SolidX are approved. Also, Grayscale Investments has filed their own S-1 registration statement with the SEC to actually list it on the NYSE, so that would also change up how it gets priced. |
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ftaiii
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March 04, 2017, 05:20:54 PM |
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Thanks, I did not know Greyscale was filing to be on NYSE, maybe they would change the fee structure then to be more competative. I believe they are charging 2%, by comparison the GLD ETF charges 0.40%
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mmortal03
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March 10, 2017, 06:09:49 PM |
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It should be fun to see how GBTC trades right before the market closes today if there's a late afternoon COIN decision.
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DieJohnny
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March 10, 2017, 07:21:30 PM |
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It should be fun to see how GBTC trades right before the market closes today if there's a late afternoon COIN decision.
I think GBTC speculators have the biggest risk exposure by far. They will sit and watch for two days what happens to BTC before they can dump or buy in. I think GBTC holding steady right now is the biggest indicator that nobody has a clue what his going to happen with the COIN ETF.... |
Those who hold and those who are without property have ever formed distinct interests in society
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David Rabahy
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March 10, 2017, 07:38:41 PM |
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It should be fun to see how GBTC trades right before the market closes today if there's a late afternoon COIN decision.
I think GBTC speculators have the biggest risk exposure by far. They will sit and watch for two days what happens to BTC before they can dump or buy in. I think GBTC holding steady right now is the biggest indicator that nobody has a clue what his going to happen with the COIN ETF.... I have GBTC and am holding; I don't want to miss a run up. If COIN becomes a reality then I will evaluate jumping to it. |
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mmortal03
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March 10, 2017, 07:50:59 PM |
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DieJohnny
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March 17, 2017, 09:33:03 PM |
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GBTC the only game in town for retirement accounts...
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Those who hold and those who are without property have ever formed distinct interests in society
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Fabrizio89
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March 18, 2017, 01:48:04 PM |
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At least you know can see lower premium wasn't because ETF approaching... lol
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MrSunshine
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May 04, 2017, 05:54:49 PM |
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GBTC has been on quite a roll now that BTC is of course. Just saw the price is $189. With Japan going full bore into bitcoin and institutional investors taking more notice it may have more legs up.
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mmortal03
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May 05, 2017, 05:42:25 AM |
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GBTC has been on quite a roll now that BTC is of course. Just saw the price is $189. I didn't even notice that the intra-day had gone that high. It actually touched $191 earlier yesterday. Tomorrow should be interesting, given that today's BTC flash crash was short-lived but seems to have impacted the GBTC close. |
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MrSunshine
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May 05, 2017, 11:55:21 AM |
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Yea, I guess GBTC trading can still get out of wack with BTC when BTC is on a roll. It could present some interesting trading.
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DieJohnny
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May 06, 2017, 06:31:19 PM |
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when is grayscale going to have the ethereum trust available to buy into?
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Those who hold and those who are without property have ever formed distinct interests in society
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MrSunshine
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May 06, 2017, 08:58:33 PM |
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when is grayscale going to have the ethereum trust available to buy into?
I don't think they will. Instead Barry Silbert, who runs GBTC, wants to create a type of ETC fund for accredited investors. |
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mmortal03
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May 09, 2017, 04:02:27 AM |
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We are at the highest percent difference as compared to BTC since January, but nothing approaching last summer.
$200 is an interesting psychological level, though.
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Raimonn
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May 09, 2017, 02:20:09 PM |
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We are at the highest percent difference as compared to BTC since January, but nothing approaching last summer.
$200 is an interesting psychological level, though.
At this moment, GBTC is trading at 222$ , that's a big increase on difference with bitcoin, and a big increase on its price from 2 days ago. |
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