Bets of Bitcoin - Bitcoin betting on real world events

[localhost]

We have been criticized both for turning into an assassination market and for performing unnecessary censorship. Current unwritten rule is to decline bets on explicit deaths like "X will die before the end of year" or "There will be a terrorist attack with X casualties", but allow statements on wars between countries.

Probably if it was written people wouldn't complain about censorship as much. It feels different to be warned beforehand that an obviously controversial topic isn't allowed rather than having a submission, which took time to create, unexpectedly refused because of some hidden rule. On a side note, you might want to add "from non-natural causes" to the die part.

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[Stephen Gornick]

• We might learn about the crowd wisdom on the issue, which might be a valuable information

Consider it like being an early warning indicator.

If all of a sudden a bet statement starts looking like someone is pretty sure about an outcome by wagering on it such that it defies general sentiment, I'm going to pay attention.  If someone has superior information then a prediction market is a pretty good method to get at that information to some degree.

That's why I was watching that extraterrestrials bet statement religiously:
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=25

That statement would  be true if the government were to confirm that ET exists.  For a while it was just too close for me to feel comfortable.  The agree/disagree spread has since widened and now I'm more comfortable stowing away my foil collection and reverting the underground shelter back into its original function as the guest bedroom.

[giszmo]

I had little hope to change a policy and assume you thought about your limits beforehand.

Other question about the rules:
If I bet on Germany not winning the Euro 2012 and it told me a certain weight, this weight will be reduced if the deadline gets readjusted/the bet gets closed early and if I bet right before the game started, most likely moving the deadline to "the day before the event turned out true or false" will undo my bet. Right?

[coinjedi]

If I bet on Germany not winning the Euro 2012 and it told me a certain weight, this weight will be reduced if the deadline gets readjusted/the bet gets closed early and if I bet right before the game started, most likely moving the deadline to "the day before the event turned out true or false" will undo my bet. Right?

The bets are not re-weighted if the deadline changes. But in your example if you bet right before the game, yes it will be canceled due to a current software limitation. If that is the case let me know, may be I can do something manually before finalizing the payouts.

[giszmo]

If I bet on Germany not winning the Euro 2012 and it told me a certain weight, this weight will be reduced if the deadline gets readjusted/the bet gets closed early and if I bet right before the game started, most likely moving the deadline to "the day before the event turned out true or false" will undo my bet. Right?

The bets are not re-weighted if the deadline changes. But in your example if you bet right before the game, yes it will be canceled due to a current software limitation. If that is the case let me know, may be I can do something manually before finalizing the payouts.

… although "day before the event" might not always be necessary and sometimes too early, I could accept it as a fair rule. If I may still bet during a soccer match until a second before the game is over, this is a joke. Especially when the weighting assumes there is more days to come this pays off better.

Example with bitcoin metrics:
Bet we exceed n transaction on a GMT day. If we hit 99% at 8pm I can safely bet true technically before the event which would take place that day with a probability of above 99.99%. Taking this into account, nobody would bet on false as all true betters could wait for the event.

[localhost]

This one is over: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=458
False: https://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/29/sports/tennis/2012-wimbledon-100th-ranked-rosol-stuns-nadal.html?_r=1

[coinjedi]

This one is over: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=458
False: https://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/29/sports/tennis/2012-wimbledon-100th-ranked-rosol-stuns-nadal.html?_r=1

Done! Thanks.

[localhost]

This on is over too: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=450
True: http://www.youtube.com/user/khanacademy/videos

[localhost]

This on is over too: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=450
True: http://www.youtube.com/user/khanacademy/videos

Wow, some people added like 6 BTC worth of bets between my post and now... 

[coinjedi]

This on is over too: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=450
True: http://www.youtube.com/user/khanacademy/videos

Wow, some people added like 6 BTC worth of bets between my post and now... 

Post hoc bets are cancelled. Payments will be processed tomorrow.

[Stephen Gornick]

I'ld be interested in seeing a history / statistics page for my account.

e.g.,
For statistics:

Open:      Total wagers, won amount, quantity of wagers
Waiting:    Total wagers, won amount, quantity of wagers
Closed:     Total wagers, won amount, quantity of wagers
Total:        Total wagers, won amount, quantity of wagers

As far as history, the account page does show statements and bets, but there are no filtering or sorting methods like on the main navigation.

Access to a simple chronological log might be nice instead.

Then again, I clearly remember all my winning bets, and can't think of many where I've lost   so maybe the present system works just fine.

[giszmo]

I'ld be interested in seeing a history / statistics page for my account.

e.g.,
For statistics:

Open:      Total wagers, won amount, quantity of wagers
Waiting:    Total wagers, won amount, quantity of wagers
Closed:     Total wagers, won amount, quantity of wagers
Total:        Total wagers, won amount, quantity of wagers

As far as history, the account page does show statements and bets, but there are no filtering or sorting methods like on the main navigation.

Access to a simple chronological log might be nice instead.

That again, I remember my winning bets, and can't think of many where I've lost  so maybe the present system works just fine.

Oh yeah I also want to see something that tells me how good I'm doing. Right now it's even hard to tell how much I won per bet but as I try to maximize my win per time, I also would want to know how long my money was trapped (yes, I don't like long running bets).

Also I would want to see a per bet history. With the low volume betting we have now, this might not yet be super interesting but for some events it might be interesting to see the tides turn following real world events. For that I would imagine handy a red-green percentage graph with a black volume-line.

[fatigue]

Over as well: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=388

[giszmo]

Over as well: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=388

Please add an "over" button to the bets so people stop spamming this thread with something that should be handled on the site. Seriously, you might want to have a consolidated view of all claims of a bet being over where people have to provide a link and a comment. Maybe you even want to give an incentive for the first to discover a bet being stale.

[Stephen Gornick]

Over as well: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=388

Please add an "over" button to the bets so people stop spamming this thread with something that should be handled on the site. Seriously, you might want to have a consolidated view of all claims of a bet being over where people have to provide a link and a comment. Maybe you even want to give an incentive for the first to discover a bet being stale.

All the bets that pass their scheduled "event date" seem to get handled promptly, as this specific one would have even without being prompted, I presume.  But the bets where the event occurs ahead of schedule are the ones that still must be prodded for review.

A close button as you suggest or other method of notifying the site makes sense.

[hazek]

I tried submitting this suggestion using the suggestion widget but I couldn't get it to work somehow..

Anyway I suggest you add comments to every bet so that people can chat between each other and fuel the betting a little. I believe this would significantly raise the volume of betting. Good luck!

[giszmo]

filter for bets that end within x days. I don't care about long running bets.

Anyway I suggest you add comments to every bet so that people can chat between each other and fuel the betting a little. I believe this would significantly raise the volume of betting. Good luck!

+1

[Stephen Gornick]

filter for bets that end within x days. I don't care about long running bets.

That exists already. 
 - http://betsofbitco.in/list?status=available&category=All&sorting=deadlineTime

(Unless you mean this filter for viewing bets you've already placed  .. "Your open bets", shown in your account profile.)

[giszmo]

filter for bets that end within x days. I don't care about long running bets.

That exists already. 
 - http://betsofbitco.in/list?status=available&category=All&sorting=deadlineTime

(Unless you mean this filter for viewing bets you've already placed  .. "Your open bets", shown in your account profile.)

That's sorting, not filtering. Also it is about deadline and not about event date (which is when I can use my money again).

[Jouke]

272 is proven true.