Bets of Bitcoin - Bitcoin betting on real world events

[InspiredEye]

Love this site sooo much, I've won all my bets to date :]

[Herodes]

I have been looking for info on betsofbitcoins, but didnt find it.Can someone explain me how much return I would get for 10btc on the current Mtgox 110$ bet? I dont get it. 6.5 say yes, 1.7 say no - so, I will get like 0.2x?

You can check the "How are the losing bets distributed?" question on our help page for an example.

Yea, I read that, I found it very confusing. Maybe I am too dumb for that.

It is not the most user friendly. Perhaps some sliders and a neat web interface would do it ?

[geniusboy91]

Once a condition is fulfilled, the bet should be settled as soon as possible, and at least closed as soon as possible.

I agree. If a bet is decided and still has two years left as an open bet, I want my money once the answer is known, not two years later.

[memvola]

I'm sure this is hashed and rehashed before, but how is this a draw: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=701 (Butterfly Labs will not ship ASIC-based Bitforce SC products before April 2013)?

Here, Josh says, on 29 March, that they won't start shipping until the end of "next week": https://forums.butterflylabs.com/announcements/692-bfl-asic-status-3.html#post21092

That pretty much proves that they didn't "ship", in any sort of rhetorical manner. Yes, we know that they still haven't shipped, but I think it's safe to say that they didn't "ship", too.

Anyway, sorry for whining. Maybe someone can redirect me to the proper thread. Thanks.

[Jokah]

I'm starting to wish I hadn't bothered with this site. It's been 5 days since a deadline has past on one of the bets and still no conclusion has been drawn.

[Nancarrow]

I'm sure this is hashed and rehashed before, but how is this a draw: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=701 (Butterfly Labs will not ship ASIC-based Bitforce SC products before April 2013)?

Here, Josh says, on 29 March, that they won't start shipping until the end of "next week": https://forums.butterflylabs.com/announcements/692-bfl-asic-status-3.html#post21092

That pretty much proves that they didn't "ship", in any sort of rhetorical manner. Yes, we know that they still haven't shipped, but I think it's safe to say that they didn't "ship", too.

Anyway, sorry for whining. Maybe someone can redirect me to the proper thread. Thanks.

That whole clusterfuck was caused by Luke-Jr whoring himself out here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=163261.0

And in other news it's been five days and they still haven't paid out on this bet: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1129

I don't think I'll be using them any more.

[memvola]

That whole clusterfuck was caused by Luke-Jr whoring himself out here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=163261.0

Thanks for the link. I know about Luke-Jr's testimony, but it's hardly the cause isn't it? He isn't the judge.

And in other news it's been five days and they still haven't paid out on this bet: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1129

I really don't mind the delays. As long as the bet is decided in the best manner possible, even a month's delay would be fine in my book.

They were doing a good job since the beginning. I too have lost interest after the lazy decision regarding BFL however.

[swordfish6975]

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1444

I'm guessing nothing was ever shipped to Luke-Jr so "Agrees" could still win?

[memvola]

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1444

I'm guessing nothing was ever shipped to Luke-Jr so "Agrees" could still win?

How could they have shipped before April but not before May?

[swordfish6975]

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1444

I'm guessing nothing was ever shipped to Luke-Jr so "Agrees" could still win?

How could they have shipped before April but not before May?

who said they shipped before April? the first thing ive seen in a box is http://codinginmysleep.com/bfl-jalapeno-unboxing-and-demo/ and he says...

Full disclosure: This was indeed a free review unit.

it is still undecided imo, he didn't pay for it so he is not a "customer".

[mrb]

coinjedi, why did you change the bet deadline of my bet (Are BFL ASICs real and doing 350+ Mhash/Joule)? I had set it to June 30, but it now reads April 21.

It seems that you decided to close it prematurely because BFL started shipping. Why? BFL will release multiple products between now and June 30, leaving the bet undecided about whether one of these products will achieve 350 Mhash/Joule or not.

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

coinjedi, why did you change the bet deadline of my bet (Are BFL ASICs real and doing 350+ Mhash/Joule)? I had set it to June 30, but it now reads April 21.

It seems that you decided to close it prematurely because BFL started shipping. Why? BFL will release multiple products between now and June 30, leaving the bet undecided about whether one of these products will achieve 350 Mhash/Joule or not.

Editor's note: BFL claimed shipping on 4/22.

[swordfish6975]

Editor's note: BFL claimed shipping on 4/22.

its also been done on http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1444  (this one has no power requirement though)

The problem I have is that it isn't clear, I would have liked a bit better explanation saying that they would wait until a customer had one?

Seems like there taking BFL's side... I do see there waiting but perhaps tomorrow they see a video of a dev unit and close the bet?

Also after the stuff up with the last bet like this I think I am well within my rights to be a bit nervous as to how "fairly" this will be decided?

[mrb]

Editor's note: BFL claimed shipping on 4/22.

I saw that. It does not explain why betting was closed.

[Stephen Gornick]

Editor's note: BFL claimed shipping on 4/22.

I saw that. It does not explain why betting was closed.

Probably made the assumption that the device shipped met the criteria, and thus the outcome known at this point.  I'm presuming what shipped doesn't meet the criteria thus the bet should remain open (as there could be yet another product shipped before the deadline that does meet the criteria).

[sippsnapp]

How are winners determined?
There is a bet "waiting" since 1st may.

[mrb]

Probably made the assumption that the device shipped met the criteria, and thus the outcome known at this point.  I'm presuming what shipped doesn't meet the criteria thus the bet should remain open (as there could be et another product shipped before the deadline that does meet the criteria).

Exactly. The bet should have remained open. coinjedi, any answer on that?

[MPOE-PR]

Probably made the assumption that the device shipped met the criteria, and thus the outcome known at this point.  I'm presuming what shipped doesn't meet the criteria thus the bet should remain open (as there could be et another product shipped before the deadline that does meet the criteria).

Exactly. The bet should have remained open. coinjedi, any answer on that?

A good question.

[coinjedi]

Probably made the assumption that the device shipped met the criteria, and thus the outcome known at this point.  I'm presuming what shipped doesn't meet the criteria thus the bet should remain open (as there could be et another product shipped before the deadline that does meet the criteria).

Exactly. The bet should have remained open. coinjedi, any answer on that?

We do not always close bets when the outcome is absolutely certain. For example we close a bet on a product shipping date, when the company announces an official shipping date, but we do not payout until they actually do. We judged that in this case starting of the initial batch releases significant enough information for the purposes of closing the bets. Initial reports tell that the performance does not meet the criteria, so we will wait until the announced event date in case they ship another product.

If you are the submitter and think that our decision is unreasonable, please contact in private and we will reimburse your submission fee. If you would like to continue betting on this event please submit a new statement so that the betting can continue under the new conditions.

[420]

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been doing that for days