Bets of Bitcoin - Bitcoin betting on real world events

[OgNasty]

Do you have any plan to implement instant transfers via MtGox's "green address" in the future?

[coinjedi]

Do you have any plan to implement instant transfers via MtGox's "green address" in the future?

We haven't considered it so far, but I'll look into that.

[OgNasty]

Not sure if you're looking for more features to implement... But some stats would be nice.  "You win 90% (9/10) of your bets" or something like that.  Perhaps even a stats page to show the best gamblers.  It would also be cool if each bet had it's own comments section so people could discuss the bet.  A calendar showing when your personal bets will take place would also be a sweet addition.  Keep up the great work! 

[memvola]

A calendar showing when your personal bets will take place would also be a sweet addition. 

Yes, going through my own bets poses the most difficulty of usage. If it's too much work for the accout page, maybe a "my bets" filter could be added to the statements screen.

[kais3r]

How many confirmations until you can place a bet with deposited coins?

[coinjedi]

Not sure if you're looking for more features to implement... But some stats would be nice.  "You win 90% (9/10) of your bets" or something like that.  Perhaps even a stats page to show the best gamblers.  It would also be cool if each bet had it's own comments section so people could discuss the bet.  A calendar showing when your personal bets will take place would also be a sweet addition.  Keep up the great work! 

Unfortunately, statement reviews, statement decisions, user interaction, server maintenance and advertisement currently takes all the time we can spend on this project. But keep posting suggestions, when we go back to coding we'll start from the best ideas.

[coinjedi]

How many confirmations until you can place a bet with deposited coins?

Currently three.

[mrandy]

Is there any way to get a full transaction history on the site?  I see the "Your Transactions" heading, but it only shows the last ten.  How do we see the rest?

[coinjedi]

Is there any way to get a full transaction history on the site?  I see the "Your Transactions" heading, but it only shows the last ten.  How do we see the rest?

Official bitcoin daemon API is rather limited. It doesn't give you the full history but only the given number of last transactions. For your external transactions your bitcoin client, for internal transactions your bet history tabs are more complete. If you need more info I can manually generate and send it to you. I agree that transaction history is the most unsatisfactory part of the site at the moment.

[Stephen Gornick]

Bet #139, currently the bet with the largest amount wagered on the entire site, is just a few weeks away from a decision.

The wagers favor at nearly a 3:1 ratio that "An error will be discovered in the faster-than-light-neutrinos experiment by the end of April 2012".

Physicist Dr. Amber L. Stuver states:

it was found that a loose fiber optic cable and an error in their timing produced the superluminal observations.

- http://stuver.blogspot.com/2012/04/no-faster-than-light-neutrinos.html

The bet included the instructions:

This statement will be true if there is an official statement from the OPERA collaboration stating that there was an error in the previous analysis or the results are refuted by more data before the end of April.

- http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=139

That's almost a slam dunk then for those betting "Agree" but there are still three weeks left where additional wagers can be placed, causing that ratio to widen even as the latecomers wager on Agree as well

So even though the return isn't that great, it might seem like this would be a sure thing that the result will be True.  There is just a hint of suspense yet though.  There was no "official statement" about there being an error yet, as far as I saw.  It is widely known that the data can "refute the results" but as-of-yet new data confirming the error hasn't been published.  The instructions don't specify that the data has to be made official though so this has probably already been decided.

I just wanted to ask then if any alteration to the bet occurs when the decision is already known before the end date.  No affect? I suppose that's a risk those betting early should take into account.

[Update: Full disclosure - after I posted this I wagered on "Agree" (True) ]

[cunicula]

Bet #139, currently the bet with the largest amount wagered on the entire set, is just a few weeks away from a decision.

The wagers favor at nearly a 3:1 ratio that "An error will be discovered in the faster-than-light-neutrinos experiment by the end of April 2012".

Physicist Dr. Amber L. Stuver states:

it was found that a loose fiber optic cable and an error in their timing produced the superluminal observations.

- http://stuver.blogspot.com/2012/04/no-faster-than-light-neutrinos.html

The bet included the instructions:

This statement will be true if there is an official statement from the OPERA collaboration stating that there was an error in the previous analysis or the results are refuted by more data before the end of April.

- http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=139

That's almost a slam dunk then for those betting "True" but there are still three weeks left where additional wagers can be placed, causing that ratio to widen even as the latecomers wager on True as well

So even though the return isn't that great, it might seem like this would be a sure thing that the result will be True.  There is just a hint of suspense yet though.  There was no "official statement" about there being an error yet, as far as I saw.  It is widely known that the data can "refute the results" but as-of-yet new data confirming the error hasn't been published.  The instructions don't specify that the data has to be made official though so this has probably already been decided.

I just wanted to ask then if any alteration to the bet occurs when the decision is already known before the end date.  No affect? I suppose that's a risk those betting early should take into account.

I don't have any holding in this bet, but in my opinion it is extremely ambiguous and should be cancelled. In very many cases, "the results are refuted by more data before the end of April" is hard to interpret. The fact that the bet hasn't been closed already suggests that the site's interpretation is that there is still no additional data available yet. However, it is not clear if that is true.

[coinjedi]

Here is what we said in the statement description:

This statement will be true if there is an official statement from the OPERA collaboration stating that there was an error in the previous analysis or the results are refuted by more data before the end of April.

Here is the only official statement from the OPERA collaboration:

The OPERA collaboration has informed its funding agencies and host laboratories that it has identified two possible effects that could have an influence on its neutrino timing measurement. These both require further tests with a short pulsed beam. If confirmed, one would increase the size of the measured effect, the other would diminish it.

Emphasis is mine. We haven't closed the bets because the collaboration haven't confirmed these possible errors and there is large chance that the conclusion will not be reached until the end of April. To be more clear, if no more development happens until the end of April, the statement will be ruled false. If there is a positive announcement we will close the bets and rule the statement true.

[cunicula]

Here is what we said in the statement description:

This statement will be true if there is an official statement from the OPERA collaboration stating that there was an error in the previous analysis or the results are refuted by more data before the end of April.

Here is the only official statement from the OPERA collaboration:

The OPERA collaboration has informed its funding agencies and host laboratories that it has identified two possible effects that could have an influence on its neutrino timing measurement. These both require further tests with a short pulsed beam. If confirmed, one would increase the size of the measured effect, the other would diminish it.

Emphasis is mine. We haven't closed the bets because the collaboration haven't confirmed these possible errors and there is large chance that the conclusion will not be reached until the end of April. To be more clear, if no more development happens until the end of April, the statement will be ruled false. If there is a positive announcement we will close the bets and rule the statement true.

That announcement has to come from OPERA only or could it come from someone else?  [To bad I don't have funds left to bet on this then, the yes side now looks way overvalued]

[coinjedi]

That announcement has to come from OPERA only or could it come from someone else?  [To bad I don't have funds left to bet on this then, the yes side now looks way overvalued]

Statement description says "if there is an official statement from the OPERA collaboration", so yes it has to come from OPERA.

[cunicula]

That announcement has to come from OPERA only or could it come from someone else?  [To bad I don't have funds left to bet on this then, the yes side now looks way overvalued]

Statement description says "if there is an official statement from the OPERA collaboration", so yes it has to come from OPERA.

so for example, suppose some other group repeated the experiment and refutes the OPERA result, but OPERA does not release any statement. Based on what you are saying, the statement would be false in this case. This isn't at all clear from the statement text. It could be read either way. You should cancel the bet in my opinion.

[coinjedi]

so for example, suppose some other group repeated the experiment and refutes the OPERA result, but OPERA does not release any statement. Based on what you are saying, the statement would be false in this case. This isn't at all clear from the statement text. It could be read either way. You should cancel the bet in my opinion.

ICARUS collaboration recently measured neutrino speeds in their own experiment and found no excess speed. There are also astrophysical observations of neutrino speeds from many years ago which are cited in the original OPERA paper. These do not mean that an "error is discovered" in the OPERA experiment. Also the description we posted is quite clear that we require an official statement from the collaboration.

[cunicula]

so for example, suppose some other group repeated the experiment and refutes the OPERA result, but OPERA does not release any statement. Based on what you are saying, the statement would be false in this case. This isn't at all clear from the statement text. It could be read either way. You should cancel the bet in my opinion.

ICARUS collaboration recently measured neutrino speeds in their own experiment and found no excess speed. There are also astrophysical observations of neutrino speeds from many years ago which are cited in the original OPERA paper. These do not mean that an "error is discovered" in the OPERA experiment. Also the description we posted is quite clear that we require an official statement from the collaboration.

It can't be clear or there wouldn't be this much misunderstanding of it. I'm not even betting on it. You can check.

[R-]

Just created a new bet relating to the iPhone 5 screen size.

[Stephen Gornick]

Also the description we posted is quite clear that we require an official statement from the collaboration.

Still is ambiguous to me.  Well, not only ambiguous but clear enough to me (before you clarified what the intention was) that I felt comfortable placing a bet on something that seemed to nearly be a "sure thing".

Had that initially been written so that there was no doubt the intention, it would have included the word "either".

Such as:
"This statement will be true if there is an official statement from the OPERA collaboration stating that either there was an error in the previous analysis or that the results are refuted by more data before the end of April.

This will be a good test here for seeing how this gets resolved.  Observing the process I wonder if improvements to policy for the service should be considered.

Specifically, the policy on when the service will weigh in on something like this.  Bets Of Bitcoin just provided clarification about how to interpret the details regarding an event after bets had already been taken but before the betting has ended.  In my opinion (as a layman) I don't think there should have been any comment other than to direct the user to existing published policy regarding what the judging process will be once the event occurs.

If there is a positive announcement we will close the bets and rule the statement true.

So an event can occur before the event date?  This should probably be referenced in the help:
 - http://betsofbitco.in/help

[coinjedi]

So an event can occur before the event date?  This should probably be referenced in the help:
 - http://betsofbitco.in/help

Here is what is written on the help page:

If the statement turns out to be true or false before the deadline, bet deadline is changed to end of the previous day and bets are closed.