Bets of Bitcoin - Bitcoin betting on real world events

[Stephen Gornick]

Just noticed that the session never expires.  Any web-based account that stores funds (my account has a BTC balance) should probably logout when there is inactivity at some point?

[coinjedi]

Just noticed that the session never expires.  Any web-based account that stores funds (my account has a BTC balance) should probably logout when there is inactivity at some point?

Sessions definitely expire on my machines. I think the current expiration time is 2 weeks.

[Stephen Gornick]

Just noticed that the session never expires.  Any web-based account that stores funds (my account has a BTC balance) should probably logout when there is inactivity at some point?

Sessions definitely expire on my machines. I think the current expiration time is 2 weeks.

Heh.  Ok, I must have been thinking "more than 24 hours" and typed "never".  Either way, isn't that too loose?  This is a wallet where I have money, right?

[coinjedi]

Heh.  Ok, I must have been thinking "more than 24 hours" and typed "never".  Either way, isn't that too loose?  This is a wallet where I have money, right?

I really like to be able to stay logged in at various sites, so I feel like that is a good default behaviour. Wallet operations (withdrawals and address changes) require your password anyway. If you are at an untrusted computer you can always logout manually. Also there can be extensions for your browser of your choice that manages site authentications according to your taste (For example HTTP Logout for Firefox).

[Stephen Gornick]

Wallet operations (withdrawals and address changes) require your password anyway.

Ah, ... perfect.  Two weeks expiration is fine then, IMO.

[Stephen Gornick]

Will this bet stay open until Tuesday or is Gingrich's pre-announcement of his announcement sufficient to close this bet?

 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=155

 - http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/04/25/gingrich-to-suspend-presidential-campaign-next-tuesday-sources-say

[coinjedi]

Will this bet stay open until Tuesday or is Gingrich's pre-announcement of his announcement sufficient to close this bet?

 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=155

 - http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/04/25/gingrich-to-suspend-presidential-campaign-next-tuesday-sources-say

Bets are closed effective last midnight. Thanks for the heads up. Winners will be paid after the official announcement.

[FreeMoney]

How much difficulty would it be to make deadlines at a certain time instead of midnight?

If I put up a statement like "A player who's username starts with A-M will win the Sunday 60BTC Guarantee at Seals" 90% of the action would happen in the hours leading up to the start time.

[coinjedi]

How much difficulty would it be to make deadlines at a certain time instead of midnight?

If I put up a statement like "A player who's username starts with A-M will win the Sunday 60BTC Guarantee at Seals" 90% of the action would happen in the hours leading up to the start time.

I can do it manually for you. Email me after the submission.
Page will still show midnight but the countdown and other calculations will work fine.
We can add a clarification in the item description.

BTW is that statement publicly verifiable?

[FreeMoney]

How much difficulty would it be to make deadlines at a certain time instead of midnight?

If I put up a statement like "A player who's username starts with A-M will win the Sunday 60BTC Guarantee at Seals" 90% of the action would happen in the hours leading up to the start time.

I can do it manually for you. Email me after the submission.
Page will still show midnight but the countdown and other calculations will work fine.
We can add a clarification in the item description.

BTW is that statement publicly verifiable?

Games can be watched by anyone, but results are not easily available afterwards right now. I can and will fix that though, then anyone can make any statement about our tourney results and you'll know where you can look for the results.

[coinft]

I strongly disagree with your decision regarding the FTL experiment. The
officials admitted problems, and without retesting no conclusive answer
can be given whether neutrinos can be FTL or not, making the
*experiment* void and erranous.

> An error will be discovered in the faster-than-light-neutrinos experiment by the end of April 2012

While it is true the experiment does not give a conclusive answer to the
speed of neutrinos either way, the bet does not require disproving the
thesis, merely rejecting the experiment, which was done by methodology
errors.

The officials put it into evasive language for their investors, but to
everyone else the following should be clear:

> ... two POSSIBLE effects that could have an influence on its neutrino timing measurement. These both require further tests with a short pulsed beam.

Hence the experiment of interest *failed* to prove neutrinos are FTL.
There is no burden of proof to show neutrinos are not FTL, and
regardless of any further confirmations and retests, the original
experiment is to be considered erranous.

-coinft

[Stephen Gornick]

I strongly disagree with your decision regarding the FTL experiment.

There was further clarification here:

That announcement has to come from OPERA only or could it come from someone else?

Statement description says "if there is an official statement from the OPERA collaboration", so yes it has to come from OPERA.

[coinjedi]

I strongly disagree with your decision regarding the FTL experiment. The
officials admitted problems, and without retesting no conclusive answer
can be given whether neutrinos can be FTL or not, making the
*experiment* void and erranous.

> An error will be discovered in the faster-than-light-neutrinos experiment by the end of April 2012

While it is true the experiment does not give a conclusive answer to the
speed of neutrinos either way, the bet does not require disproving the
thesis, merely rejecting the experiment, which was done by methodology
errors.

The officials put it into evasive language for their investors, but to
everyone else the following should be clear:

> ... two POSSIBLE effects that could have an influence on its neutrino timing measurement. These both require further tests with a short pulsed beam.

Hence the experiment of interest *failed* to prove neutrinos are FTL.
There is no burden of proof to show neutrinos are not FTL, and
regardless of any further confirmations and retests, the original
experiment is to be considered erranous.

-coinft

Statement description clearly states that OPERA has to confirm the error sources. "The officials put it into evasive language for their investors, but to
everyone else the following should be clear" is very subjective. You cannot expect us to judge on a subjective interpretation of the statement under the subjective assumption that they are evading the investors. Officially the experiment is NOT declared to be "failed" and that is what matters for the bet.

[Stephen Gornick]

I see there is a new bet:

"Chrome will overtake Internet Explorer in May 2012 on StatCounter"
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=366

I remember creating a bet something like this while ago but don't remember seeing it launch.

When I looked at my profile it doesn't show up under "Your statements available for betting".

When I just looked at it, I don't see that it shows that I had any bids on it,   

I know when submitting a bet statement I must commit at least a 0.1 BTC bet on it.  So, that would have been subtracted from my balance. 

Is there something that happened here?

[coinjedi]

I see there is a new bet:

"Chrome will overtake Internet Explorer in May 2012 on StatCounter"
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=366

I remember creating a bet something like this while ago but don't remember seeing it launch.

When I looked at my profile it doesn't show up under "Your statements available for betting".

When I just looked at it, I don't see that it shows that I had any bids on it,   

I know when submitting a bet statement I must commit at least a 0.1 BTC bet on it.  So, that would have been subtracted from my balance. 

Is there something that happened here?

I've PMed you your complete transaction history. Let me know if there is anything fishy.
Probably there was an error and your submission never registered.

[Stephen Gornick]

"Chrome will overtake Internet Explorer in May 2012 on StatCounter"
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=366

I remember creating a bet something like this while ago but don't remember seeing it launch.

I've PMed you your complete transaction history. Let me know if there is anything fishy.
Probably there was an error and your submission never registered.

I see what happened.  The bet statement I had ultimately submitted was for iOS marketshare and it did appear:
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=358
And mine isn't even the using same market share reporting service, so wow -- sorry, for the false alarm.

[jtimon]

I strongly disagree with your decision regarding the FTL experiment...

I've started a new bet because I don't think that the speed or light is a constant maximum speed in the universe.
The bet is:

There will be conclusive proof that some particles can travel faster than light before 2014

There will be conclusive proof that some particles can travel faster than light before 1 Jan 2014.
The particles don't have to necessarily be neutrinos.
The experiment must be peer reviewed and the results accepted by several reputed physicists.

Maybe some of the Einstein believers here want to help me define the bet better.
We disagree, but let's find hat are the fairer terms for both sides. Maybe I'm alone in my side now and the rest of the people that agreed with me in the last bet only though that "May it's too early for the slowness of neutrinos to be confirmed".
What would you change from the bet description?

[coinjedi]

There will be conclusive proof that some particles can travel faster than light before 2014

There will be conclusive proof that some particles can travel faster than light before 1 Jan 2014.
The particles don't have to necessarily be neutrinos.
The experiment must be peer reviewed and the results accepted by several reputed physicists.

As a conclusive proof I would require multiple experiments with totally different methods with the same conclusion. Reputed physicists will be several Nobel laureate class physicists explicitly defending the case. I think this practically impossible, especially when I am the judge. Note that first dark matter observations were done almost a century ago. Yet today we still can not say that the existence of dark matter particles are conclusively proven, because we have no direct observation of them and there are reasonable alternative gravity theories that might explain some observations.

Would you rather bet on "Another large scale experimental collaboration will report faster-than-light particle speeds"? That might be a more reasonable bet.

[jtimon]

Would you rather bet on "Another large scale experimental collaboration will report faster-than-light particle speeds"? That might be a more reasonable bet.

Yes, seems more reasonable and I can still bet "against c".
Thank you for the tips.
More help to improve the bet is welcomed.

[coinjedi]

Would you rather bet on "Another large scale experimental collaboration will report faster-than-light particle speeds"? That might be a more reasonable bet.

Yes, seems more reasonable and I can still bet "against c".
Thank you for the tips.
More help to improve the bet is welcomed.

I am closing the statement you submitted in that case. You can submit a new one or discuss it here first.