COLOSED [GROUP BUY6] Happy New Year Giveaway Bitmain Antminer S1 180GH 3 BTC

[n1tro]

Wow, the analysis seen here is amazing.  Surprised JP Morgan hasn't picked up some folks to work on Wall Street.  First flaw I'd like to point out is assuming BTC will be at its current rate till March.  That just silly.  Second obvious flaw is to assume the hardware is worth $0 come March.  I get that difficulty increases but with conclusions derived from this thread, why even bother mining at all?!

[davideak]

bought 1 Raffle Ticket to Win AntMiner
TX: cd743f62a044b75c8e26586333eda63af9d7ed0908d688da1afd3aca15c1aa52

[sushi]

Gone for a nap and I'm back....

Contacted Bitmain for some clarification.  Official Distributor price is 3.15 BTC and group buy received 0.15-0.25 discount based on the quantity purcahsed.

The Local Chinese version doesn't have any warranty service outside China.  Technical Support and Customer Supports are in Chinese Language Only.  Payment has to be in local Chinese Yuan.  and they are pre-orders. 

In case you need the warranty/replacement parts, once your unit leave China, the warranty is voided.  Another issue is that Bitmain will not certify the export process for the Chinese Government.  The private resell agent from the local chinese market may be able to sneak the Antminers out of china, however, there is always a chance of confiscation for improper commercial export.  (Not Legally Exported Item)

Also, in order to qualify for the warranty/parts replacement, the Antminer in trouble must be sent in for inspection by their tech for the warranty eligibility review.  If it was the manufacture's default, the parts will be replaced but only return to the local Chinese Address only.

This means, when you mis configure the Antminer during the initial setup and end up bricking your Antminer, you are SOL.  No replacement unit will be provided, However, International version will come with the parts exchange program for the damaged control card (customers pay the shipping)

The international Group Buy version receives English Customer Service, 90-days warranty and the the often time, the replacement parts will be sent to you first then you return the damaged parts to avoid time loss from not be able mime for 10-14 days.  And the warranty parts will be delivered to you via International Express shipping.

[gmaxwell]

First flaw I'd like to point out is assuming BTC will be at its current rate till March.

That a common misconception.  You're buying a miner. You spend BTC, it gives you BTC back. If you do not get back BTC more than you started with, plus some extra to pay for power and your time, you will have made a loss— as you could have just sat on the coin. Perhaps you are laundering money and don't care about a loss, in which case, analysis of (non-)profit is irrelevant to you but that doesn't make it incorrect.

Other than indirect effects (e.g. rising Bitcoin value driving hashrate up, or crashing Bitcoin value making both Bitcoins and miners less valuable), or crazy things like assuming that you're so irresponsible that you'll spend all your coin unless its locked up in a miner, the future exchange rate doesn't come into it at all. Even if you could buy these with USD, and AFAIK you can't— you still have the option of buying Bitcoin instead.

Sushi's service and support indeed appear valuable. But I suspect that the pricing is creating an uncomfortable outcome where it is likely purchasers at this price will end up with fewer coin than they started with. I comment on this with hesitance because I don't want to undermine the sales of a really good vendor (which I've recommend to many others), but I also worry about Bitcoin's future if massive numbers of small miners continue to make a loss, and only huge installations with captive manufacturing are able to return a profit.

[miter_myles]

First flaw I'd like to point out is assuming BTC will be at its current rate till March.

That a common misconception.  You're buying a miner. You spend BTC, it gives you BTC back. If you do not get back BTC more than you started with, plus some extra to pay for power and your time, you will have made a loss— as you could have just sat on the coin. Perhaps you are laundering money and don't care about a loss, in which case, analysis of (non-)profit is irrelevant to you but that doesn't make it incorrect.

Other than indirect effects (e.g. rising Bitcoin value driving hashrate up, or crashing Bitcoin value making both Bitcoins and miners less valuable), or crazy things like assuming that you're so irresponsible that you'll spend all your coin unless its locked up in a miner, the future exchange rate doesn't come into it at all. Even if you could buy these with USD, and AFAIK you can't— you still have the option of buying Bitcoin instead.

Sushi's service and support indeed appear valuable. But I suspect that the pricing is creating an uncomfortable outcome where it is likely purchasers at this price will end up with fewer coin than they started with. I comment on this with hesitance because I don't want to undermine the sales of a really good vendor (which I've recommend to many others), but I also worry about Bitcoin's future if massive numbers of small miners continue to make a loss, and only huge installations with captive manufacturing are able to return a profit.

Well said, +1 with a bonus thumbs_up.jpg

[n1tro]

I agree with your argument if we strictly live in a world of bitcoins.  But we don't.  And isnt BTC suppose to go to the moon anyways?!  spend 3BTC assuming 1BTC = $800USD today.  get 2BTC in 3 months.  But we all know nothing but up for BTC so I say BTC will be $2000USD then.  Profit is $1600USD since I got to convert to buy food since Krogers doesn't take BTC as payment.  How come no one uses this kind of logic?! 

My point is that given all the posts with group buys, are any worth buying??  Those USB sticks are selling for what 0.09BTC per stick yet folks still buying.  We got posts for shares in hardware that doesn't even exist yet.  Is that worth investing in?

[agibby5]

I agree with your argument if we strictly live in a world of bitcoins.  But we don't.  And isnt BTC suppose to go to the moon anyways?!  spend 3BTC assuming 1BTC = $800USD today.  get 2BTC in 3 months.  But we all know nothing but up for BTC so I say BTC will be $2000USD then.  Profit is $1600USD since I got to convert to buy food since Krogers doesn't take BTC as payment.  How come no one uses this kind of logic?!  

My point is that given all the posts with group buys, are any worth buying??  Those USB sticks are selling for what 0.09BTC per stick yet folks still buying.  We got posts for shares in hardware that doesn't even exist yet.  Is that worth investing in?

Because if you did nothing, and held the 3 BTC, you'd still have 3 BTC... that's the counter argument.  But no one uses the identical logic when working for fiat.  They take raises less than inflation or no raises at all and somehow are still happy.

[n1tro]

So is the group consensus that no hardware is worthwhile buying right now unless it is 0.01BTC/GH?  or 1.8BTC for the current AntMiner?

[Cheeseater]

I wanted to thank Sushi for all his help with purchasing my first Antminer. He has been incredibly patient with me and I truly look forward to doing business with him again. One thing I feel is being overlooked in the ROI argument is these machines will not be worth zero a month from now.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/301050300881?ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1423.l2649


Thanks again Sushi

 

[mchu168]

So is the group consensus that no hardware is worthwhile buying right now unless it is 0.01BTC/GH?  or 1.8BTC for the current AntMiner?

Look at the purchase of a miner as an investment.  No investment has 100% guaranteed return (except maybe US treasuries, but that's another debate).  With a miner, like any investment, you have the initial cost of the investment and potential future income flows.  So, with any investment, you have to speculate on the value of that future income by modeling the inflows (revenue) and outflows (variable/operating costs).  If you look at the cost of most miners available today, the cost of electricity, the mining difficulty adjustments over time, almost no investment in a miner available today will generate a positive return in bitcoin terms.  One exception: ff you have free electricity, you could probably eventually get a positive return on any miner, assuming you can run it for an infinite period of time....

Ok, so now you think this is all a complete waste of time.  But there's a catch.  Unlike other investments where the cost and income flows are in US dollars, the cash flows in bitcoin mining are in bitcoin and the bitcoin to USD exchange rate is volatile.  Also, the miner's have a salvage value (a terminal value if you will), where even if said miner can only provide a negative return for you over the long-run, they may provide a positive return for someone else with cheaper operating costs.

So, to evaluate the "worthiness" of investing in a miner, your analysis has to incorporate some outlook for the bitcoin to USD exchange rate in the future and the potential salvage value of the miner if you were to sell it later.  On the other hand, if you are planning to save bitcoin and never convert to dollars, and don't want to bother with selling the miner, then it probably makes sense to just buy and save bitcoin.

[likeBTC]

Wow, the analysis seen here is amazing.  Surprised JP Morgan hasn't picked up some folks to work on Wall Street.  First flaw I'd like to point out is assuming BTC will be at its current rate till March.  That just silly.  Second obvious flaw is to assume the hardware is worth $0 come March.  I get that difficulty increases but with conclusions derived from this thread, why even bother mining at all?!

These Jp Morgans experts are the one always predicting future markets and what one need to do is always do the opposite of what they say. I say, just use common sense!

[AlexeyK]

First flaw I'd like to point out is assuming BTC will be at its current rate till March.

That a common misconception.  You're buying a miner. You spend BTC, it gives you BTC back. If you do not get back BTC more than you started with, plus some extra to pay for power and your time, you will have made a loss— as you could have just sat on the coin. Perhaps you are laundering money and don't care about a loss, in which case, analysis of (non-)profit is irrelevant to you but that doesn't make it incorrect.

Other than indirect effects (e.g. rising Bitcoin value driving hashrate up, or crashing Bitcoin value making both Bitcoins and miners less valuable), or crazy things like assuming that you're so irresponsible that you'll spend all your coin unless its locked up in a miner, the future exchange rate doesn't come into it at all. Even if you could buy these with USD, and AFAIK you can't— you still have the option of buying Bitcoin instead.

Sushi's service and support indeed appear valuable. But I suspect that the pricing is creating an uncomfortable outcome where it is likely purchasers at this price will end up with fewer coin than they started with. I comment on this with hesitance because I don't want to undermine the sales of a really good vendor (which I've recommend to many others), but I also worry about Bitcoin's future if massive numbers of small miners continue to make a loss, and only huge installations with captive manufacturing are able to return a profit.

i agree , i very happy from my ANT from first groups but with upcoming diff tomorrow i can't recommend it to my friends 

[reikokuko]

What is the deadline for payments?

[arphon]

there is no numer limit all right but is there a time limit ?  a deadline as reikokuko asked ?

[Rawted]

PM sent, just need a wallet addy to send to.

[m_kam]

Hello, Sushi.

I still have question about Group Buy 5  (I bought 3 Antminer and hosting). I wrote to you two times in PM, sent a e-mail, but you have not answered.
I duplicated the question in PM now, please answer it.

[ldh37]

Hi Sushi,

Per the previous questions:

• what is the cutoff time/date for purchase for the giveaways?
• what is the cutoff time/date for the raffle tickets?
• Have the 25 and 100 purchase thresholds been reached?
• Have >=100 raffle tickets been sold?
• what happens if <100 raffle tickets are sold?

What is the deadline for payments?

there is no numer limit all right but is there a time limit ?  a deadline as reikokuko asked ?

[palawan]

This means, when you mis configure the Antminer during the initial setup and end up bricking your Antminer, you are SOL.  No replacement unit will be provided, However, International version will come with the parts exchange program for the damaged control card (customers pay the shipping)

The international Group Buy version receives English Customer Service, 90-days warranty and the the often time, the replacement parts will be sent to you first then you return the damaged parts to avoid time loss from not be able mime for 10-14 days.  And the warranty parts will be delivered to you via International Express shipping.

Happy New Year, sushi!

Question:  If I overclock the S1 and messes it up; would I be able to get the defective part(s) replaced?  I realize the warranty would be out and would be willing to pay for the parts and the shipping if it's cost-effective to repair.  Thanks.

[socialikable]

That sounds fair to me, too. Thanks, Sushi.

[sushi]

Guys,

I'm back!

I'm still going through e-mails and PMs.  My response is a bit slow right now, but I will catch up.  Mean while, here are some answers

I CAN NOT get 1.92 BTC price... I think I will have more people after me with a pitch fork, if I sell no warranty products as UPS is known to play soccer or football with S1 boxes world wide

Per the previous questions:

what is the cutoff time/date for purchase for the giveaways.  Just a few days.  (Its unknown)
what is the cutoff time/date for the raffle tickets?  as soon as 100 tickets are sold
Have the 25 and 100 purchase thresholds been reached? sorry, I'm updating it now.  
Have >=100 raffle tickets been sold? NOT YET
what happens if <100 raffle tickets are sold? the current rate it's going, it will be sold by the time this GB is over!!


You can place an order, but Payment needs to be in to be on the Paid Member List...

I wish you guys will make it in the first 25 Paid Member List as that is the best position you can be in this GB to be eligible for all the giveaway chances

And YES, I still accept manual orders as well, but please be patient with the PM request...

While I take care PM, e-mail get neglected...  When I take care posts, PM and E-mail get neglected, While I answer 100's of questions in Skype, others get neglected...

But Antminer will be delivered ON TIME or SOONER  

Also, I will be e-mailing out TRACKING NUMBERS from GB5 in the next 3-5 hours.  SOOOOO Please be patient with me.