rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[CoinCidental]

I hope one day bitcoin could go up $100k and I'm so rich that all girls will never look down on me again.

If girls are looking down on you now because you don't have enough money, they're not the kind of girls you should  value anyway when you become a bitcoin millionaire...
Grow some balls man, you will need them for the future 

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[TrueCryptonaire]

I hope one day bitcoin could go up $100k and I'm so rich that all girls will never look down on me again.

One rabbi gave an advice for a guy from a rich family to go to the date with very ordinary car and wear very ordinary clothes without any status symbols. In that way he can make sure the girl will not fall in love with his money and family wealth but with the guy and the money comes to her as added "bonus".
A relationship that is based on your bank account is not genuine and in my opinion not worth being in.

[bitebits]

^ That explains the Scrooge McDuck outfit

But for once I totally agree with you TC. Actually when you are not speculating but talking about FIRE our financial lifestyles are quite similar it seems. Are you more leaning towards ERE or MMM?

[chopstick]

I think this thread can be summed up with one sentence:

"I should have bought monero"

[pa]

It is important to get a weekly red candle at this point, otherwise overheating might have caused a premature top at $2-$3k.

Now (hoping the red candle stays), we have a nice base for some real valuations

Bitcoin is an amazing education. Red candles now just remind me to take a deep breath in appreciation of how much brighter the future looks.

[bitebits]

My prognosis is: 2 weeks and we have a successful assault on the ATH. Then volatile upside, however ending with weekly greens, and a blowoff top around $3000-$4500 followed by crash to near current levels or $1500.

Year 2013 all over again, we have time for a real advance later in the year

Wow, that is some bold and rather specific speculation. Wondering whether this prediction is mostly based on TA, 'mood indicators' or inside information perhaps?

What surprises me that the altcoins are moving into the same direction as Bitcoin does. You would expect the market to sell their altcoins when Bitcoin is expected to move up. A sign of new (speculative) money flowing into cryptocurrency perhaps.

[molecular]

My prognosis is: 2 weeks and we have a successful assault on the ATH. Then volatile upside, however ending with weekly greens, and a blowoff top around $3000-$4500 followed by crash to near current levels or $1500.

Year 2013 all over again, we have time for a real advance later in the year

Very similar to what has formed in my mind as the most likely future.

As always, though: bitcoin is known to suprise on both timing and amplitude.

Interesting times.

[Shiroslullaby]

My prognosis is: 2 weeks and we have a successful assault on the ATH. Then volatile upside, however ending with weekly greens, and a blowoff top around $3000-$4500 followed by crash to near current levels or $1500.

That would certainly be interesting and might generate some more mainstream attention for Bitcoin.
I heard a few news stories during the rise and drop last week. A triple in price followed by a huge crash would be exactly the type of story reporters are looking for.
I'm not sure what this would mean for the long term future of Bitcoin but it would be fun to watch at least.

[criptix]

My prognosis is: 2 weeks and we have a successful assault on the ATH. Then volatile upside, however ending with weekly greens, and a blowoff top around $3000-$4500 followed by crash to near current levels or $1500.

Year 2013 all over again, we have time for a real advance later in the year

Very similar to what has formed in my mind as the most likely future.

As always, though: bitcoin is known to suprise on both timing and amplitude.

Interesting times.

I guess im quite conservative with my 2.5 - 3k prediction

[TrueCryptonaire]

^ That explains the Scrooge McDuck outfit

But for once I totally agree with you TC. Actually when you are not speculating but talking about FIRE our financial lifestyles are quite similar it seems. Are you more leaning towards ERE or MMM?

I am not aware of what kind of clothes the young people are wearing these days so that will probably explain my outfit since I am no longer a single.
I am not aware of what MMM means but ERE I am interested indeed. I'd like to just spend my time on studying Talmud, Torah and Zohar instead of working despite I kinda like my work as well. I just consider the search for the ultimate wisdom more important to me.
Indeed I spend very little money, I try to eat as low budget as possible (and that is possible if you do not consume meat).

[ArticMine]

I guess im quite conservative with my 2.5 - 3k prediction

If crypto ever is to become an asset class among metals, land, RE, bonds and fiat, it will have to be x1000 higher than now.

So we are in front of 3 questions:

In order for crypto to become to become "asset class among metals, land, RE, bonds and fiat," it will need to be able to handle transaction volumes, on the main chain. at least comparable to the un-leveraged or  "monetary base" level of these assets. This will be possible if the current trends of falling real costs of CPU time, bandwidth, digital storage, digital memory etc. continue. I am talking of a continuation of the trends of the last 50 years.

- whether (after 8 years of consecutive ATHs and continuous progress, if it still was a fad...)

No

- how (BTC can keep its position, or something else...)

I doubt very much that Bitcoin will keep its position over the long term since the current Bitcoin protocol is hard coded to not scale the number of transactions per second (blocksize) and the only viable long term blocksize scaling solutions that I am aware of, and are sustainable would be very similar to those of Monero. The trouble with Monero like blocksize scaling solutions in Bitcoin is that they require a tail emission, which would be an unacceptable  change in the Bitcoin social covenant.

- when (how high do we go now, how high next time...)

It is possible that over the short term we may see an increase in the Bitcoin price above the last ATH; however over the long term I remain a bear with respect to Bitcoin because of the long term fundamentals of the blocksize issue. At the recent San Francisco Monero meetup one of the participants commented to me: "The product is transactions".  If one limits the number of transactions per second one in effect is limiting sales. This begs the question would one invest in a company for long term growth that has a hard limit on the gross sales?

I still hold a nominal amount of Bitcoin; however since September 2015; I have replaced the bulk of my Bitcoin holdings with a combination of Monero, Canadian Dollars and US Dollars. This portfolio of Monero, Canadian Dollars and US Dollars has out performed Bitcoin handsomely during this period of time with a significantly lower downside risk.

Edit: The rise of the order of 10^6 in the price of Bitcoin between December 2009 and December 2013 followed by at best a flat market since December 2013 can be explained as Bitcoin's growth until the 1 MB blocks were filled up followed by stagnation since the 1 MB blocks were full. Another way to put this is an increase in the value of a company until the hard gross sales cap was reached.

[Pruden]

I don't see the problem with tail emissions in Bitcoin. It will make a difference in dozens of years. Whatever happens in dozens of years is not priced into any asset in this planet. Risk is just too great to bother with it.

[wachtwoord]

In order for crypto to become to become "asset class among metals, land, RE, bonds and fiat," it will need to be able to handle transaction volumes, on the main chain.

No it doesn't. The Monero meetup participant you talked to clearly had no clue what he was talking about. Larger blocks (or cheaper transactions) makes Bitcoin less valuable not more.

The largest problem I have with Monero is the tail emission. It's my second favorite crypto (after XBT of course)

[TrueCryptonaire]

In order for crypto to become to become "asset class among metals, land, RE, bonds and fiat," it will need to be able to handle transaction volumes, on the main chain.

No it doesn't. The Monero meetup participant you talked to clearly had no clue what he was talking about. Larger blocks (or cheaper transactions) makes Bitcoin less valuable not more.

The largest problem I have with Monero is the tail emission. It's my second favorite crypto (after XBT of course)

I agree on this point on Monero. I would prefer fixed amount of coins and I tried to promote it (and suggested to smoothen the emission curve from quite early). I guess it would also have had a positive impact on the progress of development as the value of Monero would have gone up earlier.
But now I am fine with the emission and most likely Monero will gain some value against bitcoin from the current value but thanks to the tail emission most likely the most extreme valuations are not likely (that doesn't mean Monero will not reach trillions of dollars market cap - even more inflationary currencies have managed to do so).

[ArticMine]

In order for crypto to become to become "asset class among metals, land, RE, bonds and fiat," it will need to be able to handle transaction volumes, on the main chain.

No it doesn't. The Monero meetup participant you talked to clearly had no clue what he was talking about. Larger blocks (or cheaper transactions) makes Bitcoin less valuable not more.

The largest problem I have with Monero is the tail emission. It's my second favorite crypto (after XBT of course)

I agree on this point on Monero. I would prefer fixed amount of coins and I tried to promote it (and suggested to smoothen the emission curve from quite early). I guess it would also have had a positive impact on the progress of development as the value of Monero would have gone up earlier.
But now I am fine with the emission and most likely Monero will gain some value against bitcoin from the current value but thanks to the tail emission most likely the most extreme valuations are not likely (that doesn't mean Monero will not reach trillions of dollars market cap - even more inflationary currencies have managed to do so).

You mean gold?

Edit: One of the considerations with setting the tail emission in Monero was to have an inflation rate below that of gold.

[Hunyadi]

Vs.


18-02-2011

Good job Risto!

[TrueCryptonaire]

Edit: One of the considerations with setting the tail emission in Monero was to have an inflation rate below that of gold.

I championed for a higher tail emission than the one selected. Gold is a special case as it already exists, and has the multimillennial status. Not that the existing gold is "fairly" acquired by its owners, nor the current mining is "fair" but it nevertheless is the case that gold has its role.

Gold's tail emission is about 1.0% at the moment, given the official figures for gold existing in the world. Most of the gold is mined in the 1900s so the figures can be off for 2 reasons: either most of the ancient gold stocks are unaccounted (this is possible mainly in the scenario that most of what we have been told about human origins is bullshit), OR most of the gold mined has been exported to another dimension by aliens. Despite my tendency to find truth in some of the most fantastic theories, I still subscribe to the official gold stocks figures myself, although wonder where all the gold is stored as it is not in Ft. Gox.

But having a completely non-inflationary currency is unworkable for the reason that the initial supply has to come from somewhere. "No inflation" exactly equals "100% premine", yet the first is taken as a virtue, the latter an abomination.

If it is possible to store real purchasing power (which it may or may not be in practice, since the liquid ways of holding it can be inflated and taxed or economy may contract due to the suppression; the uninflatable things such as land can be rendered illiquid, taxed 100% or more of their annual yield (causing a real net loss for holdings) or simply taken away by force), then any annual inflation has to be smaller than the economic growth in that currency.

Here is wisdom - in that currency basically allows nearly unlimited economic growth, as for an economy of $1 million to grow to the GDP of the world ($100,000 billion), even in the space of one hundred years, corresponds to a brisk 20.2% annual growth. Hence, any inflation below that is essentially a win-win situation for all the old and new holders of the currency, and raises the purchasing power of everyone.

I am afraid Bitcoin and Monero will both be relegated to be legacy currencies because their inflation rate does not scale enough with the realised growth in usership. I am aware that making a trustless software that is able to gauge actual userbase, change the emission rate on the go, and allocate coins to the new users with a non-wasteful mechanism is difficult to make.

The trusted setup for such is already employed in Kansanmarkka.

It depends on how you define inflation. Bitcoin has no inflation if you examine the total supply of bitcoins to be 21 million. The same applies to gold - there is some fixed amount of gold on planet earth assuming no heavenly body will crash on Tellus. The amount will not increase (to make new gold discoveries will not affect the entire gold supply).

[ArticMine]

...

It depends on how you define inflation. Bitcoin has no inflation if you examine the total supply of bitcoins to be 21 million. The same applies to gold - there is some fixed amount of gold on planet earth assuming no heavenly body will crash on Tellus. The amount will not increase (to make new gold discoveries will not affect the entire gold supply).

This is one of the most common misconceptions about gold. The economic (mined) gold that is traded and treated as a scare resource is about 0.00047% of the surface gold on earth. http://www.westcoastplacer.com/how-much-gold-is-left-on-earth/. There is a lot of gold on earth, it is just very expensive to get at it. There is also gold in the earth's core, gold from nuclear reactions and gold from mining asteroids. A much better model for economic gold is a small inflation rate from an "infinite" source.

To put things into perspective. After many thousands of years of mining gold there is a ~1% annual inflation rate, compare this to Bitcoin where the annual inflation rate falls to below 1% in under 20 years.

[cellard]

There is not TA that can predict the current crash. You think you have shit figured out, then BOOM you wake up with a price crashing in a damn straight line, this is ridiculous. A stupid ass chinese rumor crashes the price 100 dollars. You can't predict this and that's why I never day trade. You may make some gains here and there, then you are on the wrong side while a flash crash happens and you lose it all. I wish the marketcap was on the trillions so those price changes wouldn't be as noticeable. Im sick of stupid ass whales and then the people following them panic selling at every chinamen rumor out there.

[conspirosphere.tk]

There is not TA that can predict the current crash. You think you have shit figured out, then BOOM you wake up with a price crashing in a damn straight line, this is ridiculous.

I'm concluding that the trick is to not chase the price on the way up and not try to catch falling knives on the way down. Just set your orders at your favorite support and resistance levels and one of your plans will be realized, which implies that you can't never go "all in".