rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[Warren Buffert]

Bitcoiners want to get billionaires quick with their little scheme, call noobs that are trying to get out of the mess late "greedy".

It is no secret that I sold some at $675 in 2013. The next exit zone starts earliest at $3,000, probably higher.

It is no greed to sell at a bottom, it is just stupid. Stuff is as valuable as a year ago (or more, due to more adoption, etc.), yet 75% cheaper. This is a game and you are offered 4 times better odds than last time when you took them. Instead of taking them now, or holding, you decide to fold.

If anyone becomes a billionaire with bitcoin, he deserves it. So many chances of folding were offered but he held on.

There is voice of reason in the midst of so much babbling nonsense.  Thanks Risto.   

I am having to argue a bit with BitchicksHusband a little about not folding right now though.   I guess it is hard not to get emotional.  We did have to sell some of our holdings in December but bought back a little last week.  I think the hardest thing to wrap my brain around is the fact that BTC should be so much more valuable with all of the infrastructure that has been put into place during 2014.  Why hasn't some of the money used to build this infrastructure been used to boost the price up a bit?  Aren't these companies at all concerned about BTC users getting disillusioned and leaving BTC completely? 

What infrastructure? More merchants accepting bitcoin to immediately dump it via a third party payment processor is not infrastructure, it's just proof that bitcoin is not viable as a real currency. Your mistake is that you've convinced yourself that bitcoin should be worth so much more, when market forces are clearly showing you that it's not. This is how amateur investors lose fortunes. They might close a winning position some of the time, but when they find themselves in a losing position they are so emotionally committed that they can't admit they are wrong and ride it all the way down to destruction.

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[mmitech]

Bitcoiners want to get billionaires quick with their little scheme, call noobs that are trying to get out of the mess late "greedy".

It is no secret that I sold some at $675 in 2013. The next exit zone starts earliest at $3,000, probably higher.

It is no greed to sell at a bottom, it is just stupid. Stuff is as valuable as a year ago (or more, due to more adoption, etc.), yet 75% cheaper. This is a game and you are offered 4 times better odds than last time when you took them. Instead of taking them now, or holding, you decide to fold.

If anyone becomes a billionaire with bitcoin, he deserves it. So many chances of folding were offered but he held on.

There is voice of reason in the midst of so much babbling nonsense.  Thanks Risto.    

I am having to argue a bit with BitchicksHusband a little about not folding right now though.   I guess it is hard not to get emotional.  We did have to sell some of our holdings in December but bought back a little last week.  I think the hardest thing to wrap my brain around is the fact that BTC should be so much more valuable with all of the infrastructure that has been put into place during 2014.  Why hasn't some of the money used to build this infrastructure been used to boost the price up a bit?  Aren't these companies at all concerned about BTC users getting disillusioned and leaving BTC completely?  

Because "boosting the price" serves only get rich quick kids like you and at this point it has no real effect on the fundamentals, BTC works whether it is $1 or $1000, for the volume of current transactions it will still work if it is $5, Venture capitalist chose the lower risk and most profitable investment which is investing in companies instead of investing in Bitcoin.

BTW, the companies don't care about hoarders (people like you) because they don't make any money from you, so why would they care about you leaving? in fact the contrary, if you leave you will make them a favor because your hoarded coins will offer more liquidity , and more liquidity will help Bitcoin to mature.

[marcus_of_augustus]

What infrastructure? More merchants accepting bitcoin to immediately dump it via a third party payment processor is not infrastructure, it's just proof that bitcoin is not viable as a real currency. Your mistake is that you've convinced yourself that bitcoin should be worth so much more, when market forces are clearly showing you that it's not. This is how amateur investors lose fortunes. They might close a winning position some of the time, but when they find themselves in a losing position they are so emotionally committed that they can't admit they are wrong and ride it all the way down to destruction.

sounds like you are emotionally invested in not allowing the bitcoin fire of freedom to take hold and become a real currency through organic network effects ... bit late to the party for that.

[Trolololo]

(...)If I believed in my rights, I could have the hospitalization order re-examined, since the law requires me to be "dangerous to myself or others" for such procedure to take effect. Everyone knows that I have never hit another person, nor had a thought or word of hurting myself for over a decade. The only thing I am dangerous against, is the banking cartel. But I already know from experience that the judicial system is capable of straight-faced delivery of any verdict. So raising these matters in court does not help. Raising them here makes fools cry out: "look the guy's just come out from a nuthouse", but it's not the fools for whom I write, it is the wise - the people who understand things, and are here for learning, and contributing themselves. (...)

Bankster cartel is nowadays pharaon.
Media, politicians, judges and all the other hitman are the aristocracy.
We, the rest, are the slaves.

Bitcoin is a poisoned dart in the heart of this worldwide corrupt system, and the long term winner. Simply because criptos can't be uninvented nor destroyed.


Risto, glad to read your valuable posts again.

[User705]

Bitcoiners want to get billionaires quick with their little scheme, call noobs that are trying to get out of the mess late "greedy".

It is no secret that I sold some at $675 in 2013. The next exit zone starts earliest at $3,000, probably higher.

It is no greed to sell at a bottom, it is just stupid. Stuff is as valuable as a year ago (or more, due to more adoption, etc.), yet 75% cheaper. This is a game and you are offered 4 times better odds than last time when you took them. Instead of taking them now, or holding, you decide to fold.

If anyone becomes a billionaire with bitcoin, he deserves it. So many chances of folding were offered but he held on.

But where is you buy zone?  At what price point would you consider selling the castle to load up on BTC?  Or perhaps you wouldn't ever?  You mentioned most of the last bubble selling was in the high 100s, close to 1000 so assuming that a buyback price point would have to be 10x - 20x lower for most who cashed out to buy back at least same amount or more the bottom is still lower.

[Its About Sharing]

Bitcoiners want to get billionaires quick with their little scheme, call noobs that are trying to get out of the mess late "greedy".

It is no secret that I sold some at $675 in 2013. The next exit zone starts earliest at $3,000, probably higher.

It is no greed to sell at a bottom, it is just stupid. Stuff is as valuable as a year ago (or more, due to more adoption, etc.), yet 75% cheaper. This is a game and you are offered 4 times better odds than last time when you took them. Instead of taking them now, or holding, you decide to fold.

If anyone becomes a billionaire with bitcoin, he deserves it. So many chances of folding were offered but he held on.

There is voice of reason in the midst of so much babbling nonsense.  Thanks Risto.   

I am having to argue a bit with BitchicksHusband a little about not folding right now though.   I guess it is hard not to get emotional.  We did have to sell some of our holdings in December but bought back a little last week.  I think the hardest thing to wrap my brain around is the fact that BTC should be so much more valuable with all of the infrastructure that has been put into place during 2014.  Why hasn't some of the money used to build this infrastructure been used to boost the price up a bit?  Aren't these companies at all concerned about BTC users getting disillusioned and leaving BTC completely? 

What infrastructure? More merchants accepting bitcoin to immediately dump it via a third party payment processor is not infrastructure, it's just proof that bitcoin is not viable as a real currency. Your mistake is that you've convinced yourself that bitcoin should be worth so much more, when market forces are clearly showing you that it's not. This is how amateur investors lose fortunes. They might close a winning position some of the time, but when they find themselves in a losing position they are so emotionally committed that they can't admit they are wrong and ride it all the way down to destruction.

Merchants using Bitcoin and then "dumping it" just adds much needed liquidity. It is a clear part of the process. What do you expect merchants to do with a basically unknown new form of currency, store of wealth, etc? It takes time to find price discovery.

Perhaps you expect a government currency to become purely digital and be accepted through forced use, as is basically the case now with most currencies. There are valid reasons behind that, but enter decentralization. Remember, this is a disruptive technology, and it isn't so much about BTC but rather what it is slowly going to infiltrate, Trojan Horse, and disable.  
And please give this currency more than 5 years to function. 5 years and still being around on the net is INCREDIBLE. It speaks for itself.

Many of us here are not "investors", we are people looking to make the world a better place. And we can start by having sound money that isn't inflated away so that governments can start war after war. Turning this planet around, at least in the short to midterm means WE HAVE TO GET RID of the corrupt money and banking systems still stealing our wealth in any form possible.

Some times you have to go with your heart, not your mind. And sometimes both, as with BTC.

Its about sharing, not attacking (again)

[Feri22]

Bitcoiners want to get billionaires quick with their little scheme, call noobs that are trying to get out of the mess late "greedy".

It is no secret that I sold some at $675 in 2013. The next exit zone starts earliest at $3,000, probably higher.

It is no greed to sell at a bottom, it is just stupid. Stuff is as valuable as a year ago (or more, due to more adoption, etc.), yet 75% cheaper. This is a game and you are offered 4 times better odds than last time when you took them. Instead of taking them now, or holding, you decide to fold.

If anyone becomes a billionaire with bitcoin, he deserves it. So many chances of folding were offered but he held on.

There is voice of reason in the midst of so much babbling nonsense.  Thanks Risto.    

I am having to argue a bit with BitchicksHusband a little about not folding right now though.   I guess it is hard not to get emotional.  We did have to sell some of our holdings in December but bought back a little last week.  I think the hardest thing to wrap my brain around is the fact that BTC should be so much more valuable with all of the infrastructure that has been put into place during 2014.  Why hasn't some of the money used to build this infrastructure been used to boost the price up a bit?  Aren't these companies at all concerned about BTC users getting disillusioned and leaving BTC completely?  

What infrastructure? More merchants accepting bitcoin to immediately dump it via a third party payment processor is not infrastructure, it's just proof that bitcoin is not viable as a real currency. Your mistake is that you've convinced yourself that bitcoin should be worth so much more, when market forces are clearly showing you that it's not. This is how amateur investors lose fortunes. They might close a winning position some of the time, but when they find themselves in a losing position they are so emotionally committed that they can't admit they are wrong and ride it all the way down to destruction.

Merchants using Bitcoin and then "dumping it" just adds much needed liquidity. It is a clear part of the process. What do you expect merchants to do with a basically unknown new form of currency, store of wealth, etc? It takes time to find price discovery.

Perhaps you expect a government currency to become purely digital and be accepted through forced use, as is basically the case now with most currencies. There are valid reasons behind that, but enter decentralization. Remember, this is a disruptive technology, and it isn't so much about BTC but rather what it is slowly going to infiltrate, Trojan Horse, and disable.  
And please give this currency more than 5 years to function. 5 years and still being around on the net is INCREDIBLE. It speaks for itself.

Many of us here are not "investors", we are people looking to make the world a better place. And we can start by having sound money that isn't inflated away so that governments can start war after war. Turning this planet around, at least in the short to midterm means WE HAVE TO GET RID of the corrupt money and banking systems still stealing our wealth in any form possible.

Some times you have to go with your heart, not your mind. And sometimes both, as with BTC.

Its about sharing, not attacking (again)

I like your posts, i always did  

[Trolololo]

What infrastructure? More merchants accepting bitcoin to immediately dump it via a third party payment processor is not infrastructure, it's just proof that bitcoin is not viable as a real currency. Your mistake is that you've convinced yourself that bitcoin should be worth so much more, when market forces are clearly showing you that it's not. This is how amateur investors lose fortunes. They might close a winning position some of the time, but when they find themselves in a losing position they are so emotionally committed that they can't admit they are wrong and ride it all the way down to destruction.

sounds like you are emotionally invested in not allowing the bitcoin fire of freedom to take hold and become a real currency through organic network effects ... bit late to the party for that.

The real Warren Buffett, once he has decided to invest in a company, would increase his positions if the price unfolds. Today's panic is a gift if you think that Bitcoin price was worth more than 100 USD.

Personally, bitcoin's worth value is way below 100 USD. But the spectations of wider user base, in the future, drives the price crazy. Meanwhile Bitcoin expands, wild volatility is inevitable.

For the long term believer, today's price is a gift.

[windpath]

...
Many of us here are not "investors", we are people looking to make the world a better place.
...

Agreed, and a wise man once told me:

"It's much easier to make the world a better place when you are well funded"

[rpietila]

Bitcoiners want to get billionaires quick with their little scheme, call noobs that are trying to get out of the mess late "greedy".

It is no secret that I sold some at $675 in 2013. The next exit zone starts earliest at $3,000, probably higher.

It is no greed to sell at a bottom, it is just stupid. Stuff is as valuable as a year ago (or more, due to more adoption, etc.), yet 75% cheaper. This is a game and you are offered 4 times better odds than last time when you took them. Instead of taking them now, or holding, you decide to fold.

If anyone becomes a billionaire with bitcoin, he deserves it. So many chances of folding were offered but he held on.

But where is you buy zone?  At what price point would you consider selling the castle to load up on BTC?  Or perhaps you wouldn't ever?  You mentioned most of the last bubble selling was in the high 100s, close to 1000 so assuming that a buyback price point would have to be 10x - 20x lower for most who cashed out to buy back at least same amount or more the bottom is still lower.

It depends what conversion ratio I get for the castle. They don't move very easily and mine could be appraised to half of what I paid for, or twice that. When I bought it, the plan was "<300 sell it, >3000 repair it, else hold it".

If I get the same that I invested, it's already looking good. More than 3 times increase in bitcoins in one year. (The secondary effect is that BTC price would go to >300 if bought at market).

So let's make it official: I'll sell the "bitcoin castle" to a serious buyer, asking price € 1.1 million, my cost so far.

These kind of things make the rational player conclude that BTC is oversold. If a person in my position needs to buy more, instead of just living with the previous gains, everyone else should be buying already.

Also transactions at an ATH.

The whole 2014 is funny, a year of massive increase/improvement in everything. But price development somewhat sad. Reminds me of 2012.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Bitcoiners want to get billionaires quick with their little scheme, call noobs that are trying to get out of the mess late "greedy".

It is no secret that I sold some at $675 in 2013. The next exit zone starts earliest at $3,000, probably higher.

It is no greed to sell at a bottom, it is just stupid. Stuff is as valuable as a year ago (or more, due to more adoption, etc.), yet 75% cheaper. This is a game and you are offered 4 times better odds than last time when you took them. Instead of taking them now, or holding, you decide to fold.

If anyone becomes a billionaire with bitcoin, he deserves it. So many chances of folding were offered but he held on.

But where is you buy zone?  At what price point would you consider selling the castle to load up on BTC?  Or perhaps you wouldn't ever?  You mentioned most of the last bubble selling was in the high 100s, close to 1000 so assuming that a buyback price point would have to be 10x - 20x lower for most who cashed out to buy back at least same amount or more the bottom is still lower.

It depends what conversion ratio I get for the castle. They don't move very easily and mine could be appraised to half of what I paid for, or twice that. When I bought it, the plan was "<300 sell it, >3000 repair it, else hold it".

If I get the same that I invested, it's already looking good. More than 3 times increase in bitcoins in one year. (The secondary effect is that BTC price would go to >300 if bought at market).

So let's make it official: I'll sell the "bitcoin castle" to a serious buyer, asking price € 1.1 million, my cost so far.

These kind of things make the rational player conclude that BTC is oversold. If a person in my position needs to buy more, instead of just living with the previous gains, everyone else should be buying already.

Also transactions at an ATH.

The whole 2014 is funny, a year of massive increase/improvement in everything. But price development somewhat sad. Reminds me of 2012.

As it hits 140 tomorrow I will remember to think of the shameless shill that only you could come up with

[rpietila]

As it hits 140 tomorrow I will remember to think of the shameless shill that only you could come up with

Professional way to invest
- Adjust positions to have portfolio that performs in all scenarios
- Lay back and watch (haven't done a BTC trade in almost a year)
- Adjust when major things happen

Headless chicken way
- Haphazard portfolio allocation based on no analysis nor plan
- Wishing that something would go up instead of accepting whatever comes
- Selling at capitulation, buying at mania.

What harm am I doing and to which group?   

[BitChick]

As it hits 140 tomorrow I will remember to think of the shameless shill that only you could come up with

Professional way to invest
- Adjust positions to have portfolio that performs in all scenarios
- Lay back and watch (haven't done a BTC trade in almost a year)
- Adjust when major things happen

Headless chicken way
- Haphazard portfolio allocation based on no analysis nor plan
- Wishing that something would go up instead of accepting whatever comes
- Selling at capitulation, buying at mania.

What harm am I doing and to which group?   

Thank you Risto for giving us a plan and helping some of us way to emotional buyers/sellers be prepared for days like this.  Honestly it has saved me so much worry and heartache in the long run.  Sure you may have called the lows a little early but you are right in that if we have a long term plan it doesn't really matter. 

[rpietila]

As it hits 140 tomorrow I will remember to think of the shameless shill that only you could come up with

Professional way to invest
- Adjust positions to have portfolio that performs in all scenarios
- Lay back and watch (haven't done a BTC trade in almost a year)
- Adjust when major things happen

Headless chicken way
- Haphazard portfolio allocation based on no analysis nor plan
- Wishing that something would go up instead of accepting whatever comes
- Selling at capitulation, buying at mania.

What harm am I doing and to which group?   

Not many bears around. Must feel bad to sell at 170, at the most oversold point in history.

[mmitech]

As it hits 140 tomorrow I will remember to think of the shameless shill that only you could come up with

Professional way to invest
- Adjust positions to have portfolio that performs in all scenarios
- Lay back and watch (haven't done a BTC trade in almost a year)
- Adjust when major things happen

Headless chicken way
- Haphazard portfolio allocation based on no analysis nor plan
- Wishing that something would go up instead of accepting whatever comes
- Selling at capitulation, buying at mania.

What harm am I doing and to which group?   

Not many bears around. Must feel bad to sell at 170, at the most oversold point in history.

Don't be ignorant, it is simply not done yet, a bounce was expected after the brutal crash and we may trade at this level (max $250) for few more days before the next knife fall.

[BitThink]

As it hits 140 tomorrow I will remember to think of the shameless shill that only you could come up with

Professional way to invest
- Adjust positions to have portfolio that performs in all scenarios
- Lay back and watch (haven't done a BTC trade in almost a year)
- Adjust when major things happen

Headless chicken way
- Haphazard portfolio allocation based on no analysis nor plan
- Wishing that something would go up instead of accepting whatever comes
- Selling at capitulation, buying at mania.

What harm am I doing and to which group?   

Not many bears around. Must feel bad to sell at 170, at the most oversold point in history.

Don't be ignorant, it is simply not done yet, a bounce was expected after the brutal crash and we may trade at this level (max $250) for few more days before the next knife fall.

Whether there will be a new lowest or not does not matter. Panic sell is never a good idea cause you could almost always sell later at better price when there's a rebound. Those sold at 170 could easily sell at 210 now, and that's more than 20% difference.

[danielW]

The whole 2014 is funny, a year of massive increase/improvement in everything. But price development somewhat sad. Reminds me of 2012.

A lot of infrastructure is being built up but almost none of it is making money, or finished or useful (now).

Many early adopters and enthusiast are drawing on their Bitcoin savings to fund themselves and these projects.

Furthermore a lot of investment is going into the projects, not Bitcoin.

Etherium as an example sold of about 2/3 of their Bitcoins https://blockchain.info/address/36PrZ1KHYMpqSyAQXSG8VwbUiq2EogxLo2 some of it probably sold of to minimise risk and diversify and some probably to sustain the project.


I think this is a good thing. Bitcoin, thought of as a distributed company, is investing funds into itself. This should bear fruit in future.


However this is just speculation without real analysis. So should be taken with a grain of salt, since everybody has their "theories".


Anyway good on ya Rpietila, its not easy too stay objective and make decisions based on fact when peer pressure and most are against you, wether its political views or Bitcoin price.

Personally I am as confident as ever that the price will come back up, (which is not to say that there is no risk that Bitcoin will fail)

[billyjoeallen]

I'm afraid that the next bull market will not begin until after we capitulate. This bear market is like a living breathing thing hell bent on getting me to fold and will not stop until I do. It's like it's after me personally.

The hardest part to deal with is that it's my fault. If I had sold more near the top, I could have used the capital to generate additional income so that I could easily and happily be buying more now, not caring if the price goes up or down.

I tell myself that if I survive this bear market I will do it better next time, but that is a big "IF". Now I'm faced with scrounging for additional income in an oil services town with oil prices crashing and everyone getting laid off.

Hard times make some people tougher and other people corpses, but if I'm going down, I'm going down swinging.

[JayJuanGee]

I'm afraid that the next bull market will not begin until after we capitulate. This bear market is like a living breathing thing hell bent on getting me to fold and will not stop until I do. It's like it's after me personally.

The hardest part to deal with is that it's my fault. If I had sold more near the top, I could have used the capital to generate additional income so that I could easily and happily be buying more now, not caring if the price goes up or down.

I tell myself that if I survive this bear market I will do it better next time, but that is a big "IF". Now I'm faced with scrounging for additional income in an oil services town with oil prices crashing and everyone getting laid off.

Hard times make some people tougher and other people corpses, but if I'm going down, I'm going down swinging.

You may be correct about your prediction that there is going to be one more crash; however, I question how you can make such a prediction with such supposed cock-suredness? 

There is NOTHING certain about what is going to happen with BTC prices, and it does NOT matter that there have been crashes in the past and you believe that there is some kind of pattern.  Here, we are dealing with larger volume transactions which may signify that trend reversal has already taken place, and we are getting no more coins below $200. 


The point that I am making here is NOT that I know anything, but I am just criticizing your assertion(s) of certainty, which causes me to believe that you are again talking your book (which you have done so in the past on several occassions). 

[billyjoeallen]

I'm afraid that the next bull market will not begin until after we capitulate. This bear market is like a living breathing thing hell bent on getting me to fold and will not stop until I do. It's like it's after me personally.

The hardest part to deal with is that it's my fault. If I had sold more near the top, I could have used the capital to generate additional income so that I could easily and happily be buying more now, not caring if the price goes up or down.

I tell myself that if I survive this bear market I will do it better next time, but that is a big "IF". Now I'm faced with scrounging for additional income in an oil services town with oil prices crashing and everyone getting laid off.

Hard times make some people tougher and other people corpses, but if I'm going down, I'm going down swinging.

You may be correct about your prediction that there is going to be one more crash; however, I question how you can make such a prediction with such supposed cock-suredness? 

There is NOTHING certain about what is going to happen with BTC prices, and it does NOT matter that there have been crashes in the past and you believe that there is some kind of pattern.  Here, we are dealing with larger volume transactions which may signify that trend reversal has already taken place, and we are getting no more coins below $200. 


The point that I am making here is NOT that I know anything, but I am just criticizing your assertion(s) of certainty, which causes me to believe that you are again talking your book (which you have done so in the past on several occassions). 

I'm not predicting another crash, although it is a possibility. I'm not sure how you inferred that. I think the short-medium term price is likely to rise.